The purpose of this research report is to determine whether the use of a Downside risk variable – the D-Beta – is more appropriate in the emerging market of South Africa than the regular Beta used in the CAPM model. The prior research upon which this report expands, performed by Estrada (1999; 2002; 2005), focuses on using Downside risk models mainly at an overall country (market) level. This report focuses exclusively on South Africa, but could be applicable to various other emerging markets. The reason for researching this topic is simple: Investors – not just in South Africa, but all across the world – think of risk differently to the way that it is defined in terms of modern portfolio theory. Beta measures risk by giving equal weight to both Upside and Downside volatility, while in reality, investors are a lot more sensitive to Downside fluctuations. The Downside Beta takes into account only returns which are below a certain benchmark, thereby allowing investors to determine a share’s Downside volatility. When the Downside Beta is included as the primary measure of systematic risk in an asset pricing model (such as the D-CAPM), the result is a model which can be used to determine cost of equity, and make forecasts about share returns. The results of this research indicate that using the D-CAPM to forecast returns results in improved accuracy when compared to using the CAPM. However, when comparing goodness of fit, the CAPM and the D-CAPM are not significantly different. Even with this conflicting result, this research shows that there is indeed value in using the D-Beta in South Africa, especially during times of economic downturn.

The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), as introduced by Markowitz (1952), Sharpe (1964), Lintner (1965), Black (1972) and Mossin (1966), offers powerful and intuitively pleasing predictions about the risk and return relationship that is expected when investing in equities. Studies on the empirical strength of the CAPM such as Fama and French (1992), however, indicate that the model does not reflect the share return actually obtained on the equity market. Attempting to improve the model, Fama and French (1993) enhanced the original CAPM by incorporating other factors which may be relevant in predicting the return on share investments, specifically, the book – to – market ratio and the market capitalisation of the entity. Carhart (1997) further attempted to improve the CAPM by incorporating momentum analysis together with the 3 factors identified by Fama and French (1993). This research report empirically evaluates the accuracy of the above three models in calculating the cost of equity on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange over the period 2002 to 2012. Portfolios of shares were constructed based on the three models for the purposes of this evaluation. The results indicate that the book-to-market ratio and market capitalisation are able to add some robustness to the CAPM, but that the results of formulating book – to – market and market capitalization portfolios is highly volatile and therefore may lead to inconsistent results going forward. By incorporating the short run momentum effect, the robustness of the CAPM is improved substantially, as the Carhart model comes closest to reflecting what, for the purposes of this study, represents the ideal performance of an effective asset pricing model. The Fama and French (1993) and Carhart (1997) models therefore present a step forward in formulating an asset pricing model that will hold up under empirical evaluation, where the expected cost of equity is representative of the total return that can be expected from investing in a portfolio of shares. It is however established that the additional factors indicated above are volatile, and this volatility may influence the results of a longer term study.

No abstract available. / Thesis (LL. M.)-University of Natal, Durban, 2000.

Formalised markets for the trading of securities have been impacted upon to the same degree as other business entities by the advent of electronic commerce. Globalisation has furthermore forced these markets to adapt their operation with a view towards improving efficiency while simultaneously catering for increased demands on their capacity. Clearing and settlement of securities is a core financial function on which fundamental confidence in the financial market depends. It is also an area experiencing rapid growth, profound technical and structural change, and infrequent but severe market shocks. Growth has been tremendous. For example, the value of shares traded annually in world markets rose nearly 63 times between 1980 and 2001. Advances in telecommunication technology, has brought far-reaching changes in the characteristics and supply of financial products and services, and in trading and settlement systems. Changes have also fuelled cross border activities. The South African equities industry has not escaped this dramatic paradigm shift and has itself initiated STRATEgic projects, all with a view of catapulting South Africa into the world's financial markets. It is also meeting these challenges, has often been expensive and met resistance amongst individual and professional investors who have become accustomed to established ways of trading securities. To counter these challenges and resistance (and further justify the expense and effort in transforming), various contentions (such as an increase in trade volumes arising in greater liquidity levels) were forwarded. The introduction of the STRATE (Share Transactions Totally Electronic) system by the Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE) is an example of an exchange adapting its operation to meet new challenges. This exploratory research examined whether the contention that the transition to an efficient electronic settlement system STRATE, has been successful, the effect of STRATE equity/electronic settlement in the South African market and to determine the position/standing of STRATE in comparison to other developing/emerging and world markets. An analysis of the STRATE system from inception to current status was done as well as a comparison of the South African settlement system to other emerging and world markets. A Questionnaire was sent to various major Financial Institutions (banks) and investment professionals in the employ of equity broking firms, to ascertain their opinion as to the impact ofSTRATE's result/success of the transition to an effective electronic settlement system and to determine STRATE's position in comparison with emerging/developing countries and world markets. The views of the respondents are that STRATE will increase trade volumes although it may perhaps be too early at this stage to note a difference. The major themes elicited from the respondents are that they have a greater confidence and faith in the workings of the market, lost share certificates and lack of an ease of settlement infrastructure prevented effective settlement previously, barriers to private investors have been removed, share certificates are in some instances missed, STRATE makes stock broking and investing more cost effective or easier, there is a greater liquidity potential for the Johannesburg Securities Exchange, an increase in market activity due to greater and more efficient settlement of trades, principal risk being reduced, increased foreign investment, a better international image as regards settlement through the adoption of best international practice has arisen, greater ease of transaction should lead to an increase of trade volumes, the benefits of STRATE as regards trading volumes are not yet apparent, the benefit is apparent and poor market conditions have prevented the benefit from becoming apparent. / Thesis (MBA)-University of Natal, Durban, 2003.

The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) has for half a century been considered a pillar of modern finance in describing the relationship that is deemed to exist between the risk of owning an asset and the expected future returns from that asset. The model has however been subject to criticisms and attacks in the literature and some doubt remains about the validity and successful application of the model. This research builds on previous empirical testing of the CAPM with a specific focus on the cost of equity of companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. The approach of this research was to use market values, as indicated by the share price of a listed company and discounted free cash-flow valuations to determine both an estimated and implied cost of equity. The aim was to test the validity of the CAPM empirically and potentially find an accurate, implied cost of equity for the South African equity market, by comparing the different rates and looking for statistical correlation between them. While no correlation could be found, this study did provide evidence that the cost of equity and the market risk premium in South Africa is potentially higher than previously thought. / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2013. / ccgibs2014 / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / MBA / Unrestricted

M.Comm. / The Johannesburg Stock Exchange provides an opportunity for investors to realise huge returns. A variety of tools are used by these investors to invest capital in shares for growth in excess of the market movement. Technical analysis is one of the techniques claimed by some parties to be the key aspect in investment decision making. A trading system can be derived from technical indicators to provide the investor with buying and selling signals. It is the objective of this investigation to make a judgement on the effectiveness of a few technical trading systems based on performance relative to the normal market movement. The trading systems under investigation are the basic moving average system, multiple moving average crossing system, real strength indicator system, multiple moving average convergence-divergence trading system, moving average chord system and the market momentum system. The results show that these trading systems all performed worse than the normal market movement on the 95% statistical confidence interval. It is therefore concluded that the use of technical analysis in isolation will not insure a good investment decision on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange.

Recent media reports surrounding the 2010 Soccer World Cup infrastructure, and the fines imposed by the Competition Commission drew the public’s attention to the impact that regulatory fines have on the returns earned by shareholders in these convicted companies. The purpose of the research was to establish if any significant impact on shareholder returns can be identified as a result of regulatory fines. By using event study methodology, the researcher aimed to establish if an impact can be identified at the various stages of the regulatory process. Statistical tests were conducted via the implementation of Monte Carlo Simulations at the various stages of the process, to ensure that the findings were significant. The studies revealed that shareholder returns were neutrally affected at the initiation and payment stages of the process, but that the returns were positively affected at the conviction stage. A style analysis (longitudinal study) was undertaken to determine if a portfolio consisting of stocks of convicted companies would out-perform the market over certain determined timeframes. As a baseline test, a portfolio was constructed of stocks of companies which have never been fined. The results revealed that both portfolios out-performed the market (ALL160) over a 24-year period, but that the portfolio consisting of convicted companies did not out-perform the portfolio of companies which have never been fined. / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2014 / zkgibs2015 / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / MBA / Unrestricted

Tobin’s q ratio employs a fundamental principle that enterprise values cannot deviate excessively from, namely the replacement value of the assets required to generate the future cashflow of the business. This ratio formed the cornerstone of this research that investigated whether an index based on the ratio would indicate time periods of market missed valuations; determined whether the q effect exists and the probability of its persistence over a 24 year period across different ranked quintile portfolios. Finally the research examined a new supply approach valuation technique that altered the q ratio, and could improve the spread in the q effect to improve investment yields. The Tobin’s q index was compiled using the most recent estimate and the index included the top 160 shares by market capitalisation, excluding the resources and financial sector for firms listed from 1990, to create a representative index for the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. Tobin’s q long term average was 1,83 at December 2013, indicating a consistent upward bias mainly due to share valuations. A time serious approach was followed to compare cumulative returns between different ranked quintile portfolios, ranked by Tobin’s q to analyse for style effects. Tobin’s q displayed style characteristics, although it was not as prominent as other value indicators. The adjustment from the supply approach could not improve investment yields. / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2014. / zkgibs2015 / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / Unrestricted

Financial market anomalies are constant subjects of debate because of their devotion form the foundational financial theories. Fama and French (2008) referred to the momentum effect as the premier anomaly. Thus, this study sought to apply the concept of momentum to examine three investment strategies. The first strategy was price momentum, an existing investment strategy but which was used as a comparison to the returns of the second and third strategies. The second strategy applied momentum to return on equity, operating cash flow and earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, whilst the third strategy combined stocks with momentum in both stock price and respective fundamental variable.Using a non-probability sampling method, a total of 109 stock listed on the JSE over the period 1999-2010 were tested. Momentum in stock price and respective fundamentals was used to rank stocks into quintiles. The viability of each investment strategy was measured by comparing its average and risk adjusted returns to the market.The results revealed that fundamental momentum can beat market returns, with the highest amount of significant differences found using momentum in return on equity. The combination strategy also reported results of beating the market, with the higest amount of significant differences found using the 12 month fundamental momentum combined with 6 month price momentum. / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2012. / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / unrestricted

The ANC government has implemented various mechanisms to promote inclusivity of all economic citizens over the past 15 years. The main objectives of all the policies was to promote economic transformation in order to enable meaningful participation of black people in the economy and to change the racial composition of ownership and management structures of existing and new enterprises. The purpose of the research was to determine the contribution of Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment (BBBEE) to the financial performance of companies on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) during the economic recession. The underlying assumption was that companies with greater overall BBBEE compliance rating should outperform companies with a lower overall BEE compliance rating. The top BBBEE rated companies on the JSE were analysed to determine whether these companies outperformed that sector indices. Market-to-book-value, Price-Earnings Ratio and Annual Return were used as financial performance measures. The results showed that there was a positive correlation between the companies’ BBBEE rating and the financial performance. On further investigation it was revealed that on average the companies with greater BBBEE ratings did not outperform companies with lower BBBEE ratings nor did they outperform the sector indices Copyright 2011, University of Pretoria. All rights reserved. The copyright in this work vests in the University of Pretoria. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the University of Pretoria. Please cite as follows: Van Heerden, JH 2011, Contribution of broad-based black economic empowerment to the financial performance of companies listed on the JSE during a recession, MBA dissertation, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, viewed yymmdd < http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-03202012-121101 / > F12/4/211/gm / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2011. / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / unrestricted