主催：JST/CREST，Vrije University, ALTERRA, IBPC

主催：JST/CREST，Vrije University, ALTERRA, IBPC

No description available.

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第23855号 / 工博第4942号 / 新制||工||1772(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院工学研究科社会基盤工学専攻 / (主査)教授 立川 康人, 教授 中北 英一, 講師 萬 和明 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

Arid and semi-arid basins in the Western United States (US) have been significantly impacted by human alterations to the water cycle and are among the most susceptible to water stress from urbanization and climate change. The climate of the Western US is projected to change in response to rising greenhouse gas concentrations. Combined with land use/land cover (LULC) change, it can influence both surface and groundwater resources, both of which are a significant source of water in the US. Responding to this challenge requires an improved understanding of how we are vulnerable and the development of strategies for managing future risk. In this dissertation, I explored how hydrology of semi-arid regions responds to LULC and climate change and how hydrologic projections are influenced by the choice and calibration of models. The three main questions I addressed with this dissertation are: 1. Is it important to calibrate models for forecasting absolute/relative changes in streamflow from LULC and climate changes? 2. Do LSMs make reasonable estimates of groundwater recharge in the western US? 3. How might recharge change under projected climate change in the western US? Results from this study suggested that it is important to calibrate the model spatially to analyze the effect of LULC change but not as important for analyzing the relative change in streamflow due to climate change. Our results also highlighted that LSMs have the potential to capture the spatial and temporal patterns as well as seasonality of recharge at large scales. Therefore, LSMs (specifically VIC and Noah) can be used as a tool for estimating current and future recharge in data limited regions. Average annual recharge is projected to increase in about 62% of the region and decrease in about 38% of the western US in future and varies significantly based on location (-50% - +94 for near future and -90% to >100% for far future). Recharge is expected to decrease significantly (-13%) in the South region in the far future. The Northern Rockies region is expected to get more recharge in both in the near (+5.1%) and far (+9.0%) future. Overall, this study suggested that land use/land cover (LULC) change and climate change significantly impacts hydrology in semi-arid regions. Model choice and model calibrations also influence the hydrological predictions. Hydrological projections from models have associated uncertainty, but still provide valuable information for water managers with long term water management planning.

Les tourbières sont largement présentes dans les hautes latitudes nord et plus particulièrement dans les régions de pergélisols. Elles contiennent un important stock de carbone et constituent l’une des plus grandes sources naturelles de méthane. Leur représentation dans un modèle de climat estalors primordiale pour améliorer celle du cycle du carbone. De plus, la contribution des émissions de méthane des tourbières reste encore incertaine et de nombreuses incertitudes persistent. Les émissions de méthane des tourbières dépendent fortement du climat et sont influencées principalement par la température et l’humidité du sol. Parallèlement, le réchauffement climatique particulièrement prononcé à ces latitudes conduit au dégel des pergélisols avec une augmentation de la profondeur de la couche active. Ce grand réservoir de carbone peut être partiellement mobilisé et émis sous forme de CO2 ou CH4, en fonction des conditions hydrologiques à la surface.L’objectif de ces travaux de thèse consiste à représenter les tourbières des hautes latitudes dansle modèle de surface ORCHIDEE. Ce développement est effectué dans la version du modèle qui intègreles processus des hautes latitudes tels que le gel des sols. Les tourbières sont représentées parun schéma hydrologique spécifique ce qui améliore les échanges en énergie et en eau. La difficultérepose sur la représentation des processus locaux des tourbières à l’échelle d’un modèle de climatglobal. Certaines propriétés biologiques ont également été prises en compte afin de mieux représenter la végétation de ces milieux. Pour cela, les tourbières sont intégrées comme un nouveau type devégétation et représentées par une fraction de grille, basée sur des observations. Le comportement hydrologique et l’impact de cette intégration sont évalués à échelle des hautes latitudes ainsi qu’à échelle régionale. Ce développement permet d’estimer ensuite l’évolution de l’hydrologie des tourbières suite au réchauffement climatique. Les changements de l’hydrologie des tourbières d’ici la fin du siècle permettent de mieux évaluer les variations futures de leurs émissions de CH4.Ce travail de développement a ensuite été appliqué pour déterminer l’évolution des émissions deméthane. Les tourbières constituent l’une des plus grandes sources naturelles de méthane et contrôlentà plus de 70 % la variabilité interannuelle de la concentration atmosphérique de CH4. Les émissionsde méthane résultent de différents processus physiques et biologiques tels que la méthanogénèse etla méthanotrophie. Pour représenter ces processus, un modèle de densité de flux existant, intégré dans ORCHIDEE, a été adapté pour les tourbières afin d’estimer les émissions de méthane des tourbières des hautes latitudes. L’évolution de ces émissions est étudiée entre le début du 20ème et la fin du 21ème siècles selon différents scénarios climatiques. / Peatlands are widely present in northern latitudes and especiallyin permafrost regions. They contain a high carbon stock and are one ofthe greatest natural sources of methane. Their representation in a climate model is crucial to improve the one of the carbon cycle. Moreover, the contribution of methanepeatland emissions remains uncertain.Methane emissions from peatlands strongly depend on the climate and are influenced primarily by temperature and soil moisture. Meanwhile, climate change is particularlysevere at these latitudes and leads to thawing permafrost with increasing the active layer depth. This large carbon reservoir may be partially mobilized and emitted asCO2 or CH4, depending on hydrological conditions at the surface.The aim of this PhD thesis is to represent northern peatlands in the ORCHIDEE land surface model. This development is carried out in the version of the model that incorporatesprocesses in high latitudes such as the soil freezing. Peatlands are represented by a specific hydrological scheme which improves the exchange of energy and water. The difficulty isbased on the representation of local peatlands processes across a global climate model. Some biological properties were also considered to represent bettervegetation of these environments. To do so, peatlands are integrated as a new type ofvegetation and represented by a fraction of a grid, based on observations. Thehydrological behaviour and the impact of this integration are estimated at the boreal scale as well asregionally. This development then allows estimate changes in the hydrology of peatlands due to global warming. Studying the changes in hydrology of peatlands by the end of th 21st century will improve the prediction of future changes in their CH4 emissions.This development work was then applied to determine the evolution of methane emissions. Peatlands are one of the largest natural sources of methane and control more than 70% interannual variability of atmospheric concentration of CH4. Methane emissions result from various physical and biological processes such as methanogenesis and the methanotrophy. To represent these processes, a flux density model, integratedin ORCHIDEE, was adapted for peatlands to estimate their methane emissions. The evolution of these emissions is studied between the early 20th and late 21st centuries under different climate scenarios.

Submitted by Maria Medeiros (maria.dilva1@ufcg.edu.br) on 2018-08-30T13:43:17Z No. of bitstreams: 1 ANA PAULA NUNES DA SILVA - TESE (PPGMet) 2016.pdf: 25525790 bytes, checksum: 973f4462b19d6c6616cfec5845906a37 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-30T13:43:17Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ANA PAULA NUNES DA SILVA - TESE (PPGMet) 2016.pdf: 25525790 bytes, checksum: 973f4462b19d6c6616cfec5845906a37 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-05-06 / CNPq / O objetivo deste trabalho foi verificar a ocorrência de ilha de calor urbana (ICU) e sua influência no microclima na Região Metropolitana de Macapá (RMM), situada no Nordeste da Amazônia Legal, já que esta região vem apresentando um rápido processo de urbanização. Este processo de crescimento urbano provoca mudanças na cobertura e uso do solo, que podem modificar diretamente o balanço de energia em superfície gerando modificações na atmosfera que podem variar da escala local até a regional. Para verificar o crescimento urbano da RMM utilizou-se imagens do LANDSAT TM e OLI/TIRS de cinco diferentes épocas e através da classificação supervisionada MAXVER, verificou-se a expansão da classe área construída entre 1986 e 2015, classe que subentende a malha urbana. Uma análise climática com dados de precipitação e temperatura, permitiu verificar que possivelmente a variabilidade da temperatura e precipitação encontrada deve estar mais associado com eventos como El Niño do que com mudanças climáticas, entretanto, as tendências de aquecimento observadas podem estar relacionadas com o crescimento urbano. Para entender os impactos do crescimento urbano na modificação do microclima da RMM analisou-se índices de extremos climáticos de duas estações meteorológicas: uma situada no perímetro urbano e outra numa área rural da RMM. Verificou-se que as maiores mudanças térmicas ocorreram na área mais afastada da cidade, fato devido às mudanças de uso do solo na região periférica da RMM, enquanto que os índices relacionados a precipitação foram mais significativos na área urbana. Foram instalados termo-higrômetros em quatro pontos da RMM em áreas suburbanas e rurais para analisar os índices ICU, verificou-se que o índice sazonal de ICU foi maior (menor) nos meses de março a abril (outubro a dezembro), enquanto o índice horário obteve diferentes resultados de acordo com a época do ano: no mês chuvoso (seco) foi mais intenso no início da noite (do dia) com valor para a RMM atingiram valores máximos de 6°C (4,9°C). Na análise da Ilha de Calor Urbana em Superfície (ICUS) utilizaram-se cinco imagens de satélite e se verificou que em todas as imagens houve a comprovação de ICUS com núcleos nos centros da malhas urbanas das duas cidades da RMM e num distrito situado entre os dois centros urbanos analisados. Verificando os índices de conforto térmico gerados pela formação de ICU na RMM, comprovou-se que a região central da RMM apresenta os maiores valores e, que os índices de calor e de temperatura efetiva apresentaram boa relação com a percepção térmica da população de RMM, entrando o índice de conforto humano não se mostrou aplicabilidade na região em estudo. / The goal of the this Doctoral Thesis is to verify the occurrence of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) in the Macapá Metropolitan Area (RMM) Micro climate, which is placed in the Legal Amazon Northeast, due to the fact of the fast urbanization of the area. The development of the urban areas causes changes on the cover and use of the soil which could have a direct effect on the surface energy balance that may result in atmospheric modification in a local, or even regional,scale. In order to verify the RMM urban development, were used images from LANDSAT TM and OLI/TIRS of five different periods. Therefore, through the supervised classification MAXVER, it was possible to verify a expansion of the build-up area, the class of soil that covers the urban sheet, between 1986 and 2015. A climatic Analysis containing precipitation and temperature data showed that, probably, the variation of precipitation and temperature which appeared in the numbers presented are more likely to be associated with specific events, e.g. El Niño, than with the climatic changes. How ever, the growing heat trend observed during the research may be related to the urban development. In order to understand the impact of the development of the urban areas in the modification of the RMM micro climate, extreme climatic levels from two meteorologic bases were adopted: one of the those was placed within the urban perimeter; while the other was located in the RMM rural area. The data collected showed the biggest thermal changes took place further from the city, due to changes in the use of the soil in the isolated region of the RMM. About the levels related to precipitation, they were more significant in the urban areas. Term-hygrometers were installed in four different spots of the RMM, in suburban and rural areas, with the objective of analyzing the UHI levels. It was possible to verify that the season UHI levels were bigger (smaller) between March and April (October and December). The schedule levels showed different results along the year: during the rainy month (dry) it was more intense in the beginning of night (day) reaching maximum levels, in the RMM, of 6.0ºC (4.9ºC). For the analysis of the Urban Heat Island on Surface (SUHI) 5 satellite images were used and it was possible to verify in all of them the existence of ICUS with their cores located in the center of the urban sheets of the two cities that form the RMM and in a district placed between them. Trough the verification of the heat levels generated by the UHI formation in the RMM, it was possible to probe that the central area of the RMM presents the biggest values, and the IC and ITE levels are well connected to the RMM population's thermal perception. Considering the ICH it was evident the applicability of this Thesis in the area of the research.

A geada é um fenômeno meteorológico adverso que causa perdas severas ao setor agrícola, em especial no Sul do Brasil. A baixa distribuição espacial da rede de estações meteorológicas dificulta o monitoramento e a previsão do fenômeno. O propósito principal desta tese foi o desenvolvimento de um modelo matemático para quantificar de forma direta e simples a probabilidade do risco de ocorrência de geada tendo como base em dados de fácil obtenção como altitude, latitude, continentalidade e temperatura do ar. O modelo criado, denominado Risco Geral de Geada (RGG), foi idealizado a partir de dois riscos básicos, o risco geográfico e o risco advindo da temperatura mínima do local, ambos com o mesma contribuição para a ocorrência de geada. O risco geográfico de geada (RGeo) foi obtido a partir do somatório dos riscos atribuídos aos fatores geográficos altitude, latitude e continentalidade. Cada um destes fatores contribui de forma diferente para a formação da geada e suas contribuições foram estimadas a partir de um modelo de regressão linear múltipla para a estimativa da temperatura mínima do ar climatológica de inverno no Rio Grande do Sul. No risco de geada associado à temperatura mínima (RTmín) foi feita a atribuição de riscos em um intervalo de temperatura entre 0 e 6°C. O modelo final obtido, válido apenas para o Rio Grande do Sul, foi testado com dados coletados em estações meteorológicas de superfície da mesorregião do Sudeste Rio-grandense, localizadas em Encruzilhada do Sul, Rio Grande e Santa Vitória do Palmar. Dados de temperatura mínima do ar nos meses de junho, julho e agosto, coletados entre os anos de 1961 e 2015, comprovaram a utilidade do modelo RGG para a definição da probabilidade do risco de ocorrência de geada, mesmo diante de incertezas atribuídas a outros fatores não descritos no modelo. Na região de teste também foi avaliada a qualidade de dados orbitais de temperatura da superfície terrestre (TST), obtidos do produto MDY11A1 da passagem noturna do sensor MODIS/AQUA, na detecção de temperaturas baixas relacionadas com a ocorrência de geada. A frequência de dias com TST inferiores a 3°C mostrou coerência tanto com os dados observados em estação meteorológica, quanto com o risco determinado pelo RGG. A coerência entre os resultados obtidos do modelo RGG e os dados reais observados em superfície e obtidos por satélite torna o modelo útil na descrição da probabilidade do risco de ocorrência de geada sobre o Rio Grande do Sul. / Frost is an adverse meteorological phenomenon that causes severe losses to the agricultural sector, especially in Southern Brazil. Low spatial distribution of the network of meteorological stations hinders monitoring and forecast phenomenon. The main purpose of this thesis was to develop a mathematical model to measure directly and easily the probability of the risk of frost based on readily available data such as altitude, latitude, continentality and air temperature. The model, called Frost General Risk (RGG), was designed from two basic risk, geographic risk and risk arising out of the local minimum temperature, both with the same contribution to the occurrence of frost. The geographical risk of frost (RGeo) was obtained from the sum of the risks attributed to geographical factors altitude, latitude and continental influence. Each of these factors contributes differently to the formation of frost and their contributions were estimated from a multiple linear regression model to estimate the minimum air temperature winter climatological in Rio Grande do Sul. In the frost risk associated with minimum temperature (RTmín) assigning risk was taken in a temperature range between 0 and 6° C. The final model obtained, valid only for the Rio Grande do Sul, has been tested with data collected from weather stations surface of the middle region of Sudeste Rio-grandense, located in Encruzilhada do Sul, Rio Grande and Santa Vitória do Palmar. Minimum temperature, the air in the months of june, july and august, collected between 1961 and 2015, have proved the usefulness of the model RGG to define the probability of the risk of frost, even in the face of uncertainty attributed to other factors not described in the model. In the test region was also evaluated the quality of satellite data of the land surface temperature (LST), the product obtained MDY11A1 the night passage of MODIS / AQUA sensor to detect low temperatures related to the occurrence of frost. The frequency of days with LST below 3° C showed much consistency with the observed data in weather station, and with the particular risk for the RGG. Consistency between the results obtained from the RGG model and the actual data observed in surface and from satellites makes the model useful in describing the probability of the risk of frost on the Rio Grande do Sul.

The South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB) is amongst the largest watersheds in Canada. It is an ecologically diverse region, containing Montane Cordillera, Boreal Plains and Prairie ecozones. The SSRB is subject to chinooks, which bring strong winds, high temperatures and humidity deficits that alter the storage of water during winter. Approximately 40% of winter days experience chinooks. Ablation during chinooks has not been quantified; it is not known how much water evaporates, infiltrates or runs off. The aim of this thesis is to characterise the spatial variability of surface water fluxes as affected by chinooks over SSRB subbasins and ecozones. The objectives are addressed using detailed field observations and physically based land surface modelling. Eddy covariance was deployed at three prairie sites. During winter chinooks, energy for large evaporative fluxes were provided by downward sensible heat fluxes. There was no evidence of infiltration until March. The Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) coupled to the Prairie Blowing Snow Model (PBSM) was used as the modelling platform. A multi-physics version of CLASSPBSM was developed, consisting of two parameterisation options each for sixteen processes. Field observations were used to evaluate each of the configurations. Three parameterisations provide both best snow and best soil water simulations: iterative energy balance solution, air temperature and wind speed based fresh snow density and de Vries’ soil thermal conductivity. The model evaluation highlighted difficulties simulating evaporation and uncertainty in simulating infiltration into frozen soils at large scales. A single model configuration is selected for modelling the SSRB. Modelling showed that the SSRB generally experiences no net soil water storage change until March, confirming field observations. Chinooks generally reduce net terrestrial water storage, largely due to snowmelt and subsequent evaporation and runoff. The Prairie ecozone is that which is most strongly affected by chinooks. The Montane Cordillera ecozone is affected differently by chinooks; blowing snow transport increases during winter and runoff increases during spring. The Lower South Saskatchewan is the subbasin most affected by chinooks. The Red Deer is the subbasin least affected by chinooks.

A geada é um fenômeno meteorológico adverso que causa perdas severas ao setor agrícola, em especial no Sul do Brasil. A baixa distribuição espacial da rede de estações meteorológicas dificulta o monitoramento e a previsão do fenômeno. O propósito principal desta tese foi o desenvolvimento de um modelo matemático para quantificar de forma direta e simples a probabilidade do risco de ocorrência de geada tendo como base em dados de fácil obtenção como altitude, latitude, continentalidade e temperatura do ar. O modelo criado, denominado Risco Geral de Geada (RGG), foi idealizado a partir de dois riscos básicos, o risco geográfico e o risco advindo da temperatura mínima do local, ambos com o mesma contribuição para a ocorrência de geada. O risco geográfico de geada (RGeo) foi obtido a partir do somatório dos riscos atribuídos aos fatores geográficos altitude, latitude e continentalidade. Cada um destes fatores contribui de forma diferente para a formação da geada e suas contribuições foram estimadas a partir de um modelo de regressão linear múltipla para a estimativa da temperatura mínima do ar climatológica de inverno no Rio Grande do Sul. No risco de geada associado à temperatura mínima (RTmín) foi feita a atribuição de riscos em um intervalo de temperatura entre 0 e 6°C. O modelo final obtido, válido apenas para o Rio Grande do Sul, foi testado com dados coletados em estações meteorológicas de superfície da mesorregião do Sudeste Rio-grandense, localizadas em Encruzilhada do Sul, Rio Grande e Santa Vitória do Palmar. Dados de temperatura mínima do ar nos meses de junho, julho e agosto, coletados entre os anos de 1961 e 2015, comprovaram a utilidade do modelo RGG para a definição da probabilidade do risco de ocorrência de geada, mesmo diante de incertezas atribuídas a outros fatores não descritos no modelo. Na região de teste também foi avaliada a qualidade de dados orbitais de temperatura da superfície terrestre (TST), obtidos do produto MDY11A1 da passagem noturna do sensor MODIS/AQUA, na detecção de temperaturas baixas relacionadas com a ocorrência de geada. A frequência de dias com TST inferiores a 3°C mostrou coerência tanto com os dados observados em estação meteorológica, quanto com o risco determinado pelo RGG. A coerência entre os resultados obtidos do modelo RGG e os dados reais observados em superfície e obtidos por satélite torna o modelo útil na descrição da probabilidade do risco de ocorrência de geada sobre o Rio Grande do Sul. / Frost is an adverse meteorological phenomenon that causes severe losses to the agricultural sector, especially in Southern Brazil. Low spatial distribution of the network of meteorological stations hinders monitoring and forecast phenomenon. The main purpose of this thesis was to develop a mathematical model to measure directly and easily the probability of the risk of frost based on readily available data such as altitude, latitude, continentality and air temperature. The model, called Frost General Risk (RGG), was designed from two basic risk, geographic risk and risk arising out of the local minimum temperature, both with the same contribution to the occurrence of frost. The geographical risk of frost (RGeo) was obtained from the sum of the risks attributed to geographical factors altitude, latitude and continental influence. Each of these factors contributes differently to the formation of frost and their contributions were estimated from a multiple linear regression model to estimate the minimum air temperature winter climatological in Rio Grande do Sul. In the frost risk associated with minimum temperature (RTmín) assigning risk was taken in a temperature range between 0 and 6° C. The final model obtained, valid only for the Rio Grande do Sul, has been tested with data collected from weather stations surface of the middle region of Sudeste Rio-grandense, located in Encruzilhada do Sul, Rio Grande and Santa Vitória do Palmar. Minimum temperature, the air in the months of june, july and august, collected between 1961 and 2015, have proved the usefulness of the model RGG to define the probability of the risk of frost, even in the face of uncertainty attributed to other factors not described in the model. In the test region was also evaluated the quality of satellite data of the land surface temperature (LST), the product obtained MDY11A1 the night passage of MODIS / AQUA sensor to detect low temperatures related to the occurrence of frost. The frequency of days with LST below 3° C showed much consistency with the observed data in weather station, and with the particular risk for the RGG. Consistency between the results obtained from the RGG model and the actual data observed in surface and from satellites makes the model useful in describing the probability of the risk of frost on the Rio Grande do Sul.