本篇論文要探討的主題為何種總體或個體因素會影響投保人在壽險上的解約行為。由於壽險保單的解約行為會讓保險公司面臨現金流、聲譽、逆選擇等風險，進而影響公司營運。因此探討影響保單解約率之因素，進而準確估計保單的解約率為十分重要的議題。此外，不論投保人主動解約或是被動使保單失效均會對保險公司造成影響，因此本篇論文也將利用不同解約率的計算方式進行實證分析，研究是否不同計算方式的解約率會影響實證結果。本文使用NAIC (National Association of Insurance Commissioners)保險資料庫之年報資料，對2004-2014年間保險公司之經營狀況進行分析，驗證解約率實證中常用的三個假說：市場利率假說、緊急資金假說以及保單替換假說，選用之變數包含失業率、利率、保單替換率、高齡比等變數，並採用固定效果模型作為縱橫資料之迴歸模型，分別對不同計算方式所得之解約率進行迴歸分析，並比較彙整其結果。最後針對結果提出未來研究之建議。 / Insurance companies’ business will be influenced by surrender activities in several aspects, such as cash flow problem and inverse selection problem. Empirical researches show that both macroeconomic variables and microeconomic variables will influence surrender behaviors. Hence, this paper seeks to which kinds of macroeconomic variables will influence surrender activities and investigates whether using different ways to calculate surrender rate will cause different empirical results. All available US insurance company data, ranging from January 2004 to December 2014, are obtained from the annual statement in NAIC (National Association of Insurance Commissioners).We found some evidence supporting Emergency Fund Hypothesis and Interest Rate Hypothesis, but using different ways to calculate surrender rate may cause a little bias in conclusion. However, the relationship between surrender activities and macroeconomic variables supports insurance companies to understand and actively manage lapse/surrender risk.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2007. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In Februarie 2000 het die Minister van Finansies aangekondig dat die regering besluit het om 'n inflasie teiken van 3 tot 6 persent vir 2002 daar te stel en het dus 'n beleid om 'n bepaalde inflasiekoers na te streef, aangeneem. 'n Eksplisiete lae inflasiekoersteiken is gestel as deel van die regering se ekonomiese beleid. Dit is 'n aanvaarde aanname dat hierdie teikenkoers vir die afsienbare toekoms sal geld. Veranderinge in die inflasiekoers, ongeag of dit na hoer of laer vlakke beweeg, het 'n invloed op hoe bateklasse reageer. Dit is dus belangrik dat beleggers die dinamika van inflasie verstaan en hoe dit beleggingsopbrengste bernvloed. Dit sal hulle help om deurdagte beleggingsbesluite te neem en om realistiese verwagtinge van be leggings - en polisopbrengste te he. Vir verskaffers van beleggingsprodukte in Suid-Afrika, veral die lewensversekeringsindustrie, is daar twee beduidende uitdagings in die huidige omgewing van lae rentekoerse en lae inflasie: om 'n winsgewende kontantvloei te genereer en om aan kliente se verwagtinge te valdoen. Volgens kliente is daar in die onlangse verlede nie aan hul verwagtinge valdoen nie, aangesien il1lustratiewe uitkeerwaardes wat gekwoteer is toe die polis uitgeneem is, nie geldig is in die huidige lae-inflasie omgewing nie. Kliente is ook teleurgesteld met huidige nomina Ie opbrengste wat laer is wat voorheen bereik is. Alhoewe[ dit algemeen aanvaar word dat 'n lae en stabiele inflasiekoers 'n voorvereiste is vir volhoubare ekonomiese groei en vooruitgang. verander dit die beleggingsomgewing vir private beleggers, verskaffers van beleggingsprodukte en beheerliggame. Hierdie verslag ondersoek die impak van lae inflasie op beleggingsopbrengste asook die implikasie daarvan vir beleggers, beleggingsproduk-verskaffers en beheerliggame in die finansiele dienstesektor in Suid-Afrika.

Thesis (PhD (Accounting))--University of Stellenbosch, 2005. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The South African long-term insurance industry is currently believed to be at an important crossroads in its existence. The industry is haunted by concerns about high cost structures, a lack of transparency in disclosure to policyholders, unfulfilled expectations of policyholders and the proliferation of available investment vehicles in the market. These concerns are exerting pressure on the existing products and practices of South African long-term insurers. The audits of these insurers are of a complex and high-risk nature as a result of the complexity of their operations and, in particular, the highly complex actuarial valuation process in respect of policy liabilities. The prevailing auditing standards in South Africa require auditors to include policy liabilities in the ambit of their audit opinions. Recent investigations into failed long-term insurers and their audits, including those of local Fedsure Life, British Equitable Life Assurance Society and Australian HIH Insurance, demonstrate the high risk involved in the audits of long-term insurers. Against this background, the objective of this research was to develop a best practice framework for the formulation of overall audit strategies for policy liabilities arising under insurance contracts and the related earnings of listed South African long-term insurers. To justify the focus of the research on the abovementioned components of the financial statements of listed South African long-term insurers, a questionnaire was developed and sent to auditors of all long-term insurers listed on the JSE Securities Exchange South Africa for completion. Responses were processed to calculate a Relative Inherent Risk Index specifically developed for use in this research, ranking various industry-specific account balances and classes of transactions on the basis of their potential exposure to inherent risk. The results of this process provided significant support for the hypotheses that policy liabilities and the related earnings are potentially exposed to the highest levels of inherent risk. The remainder of the research consequently focused on these components. A further very comprehensive questionnaire was developed to collect data with respect to respondents’ views of potential best practices for the audit of various aspects relating to policy liabilities arising under insurance contracts and the related earnings of listed South African long-term insurers, on the basis of their extensive experience in the industry. This questionnaire was sent to experienced auditors responsible for the audits of the five largest listed long-term insurers in South Africa for completion. Responses were received from four of the five potential respondents, resulting in an 80% response rate, enabling meaningful analysis and interpretation of the data. Responses were analysed, interpreted and documented in the form of a detailed best practice framework for the formulation of overall audit strategies for policy liabilities arising under insurance contracts and the related earnings. The lack of a fifth response was compensated for by a review of the research findings by experienced auditors of Deloitte and the provision of their opinions thereon. Deloitte was selected for this purpose as the fact that this auditing firm is the only one of the so-called “Big Four” auditing firms that does not act as auditor of one of the selected target long-term insurers, resulted in the initial exclusion of the firm’s views from the research. The framework was updated to reflect these opinions and now incorporates input from all of the so-called “Big Four” auditing firms. The framework provides a comprehensive discussion of all possible types of audit procedures that may be relevant to the audit of all aspects of policy liabilities arising under insurance contracts and the related earnings of listed South African long-term insurers. As no such framework existed prior to this research, the development thereof made a significant contribution to existing knowledge. This contribution is the result of, inter alia, the method followed in designing the framework, resulting in it representing a synthesis of, inter alia, the following: • existing international and limited local guidance for auditors and, in particular, auditors of long-term insurers, customised for the South African environment; • best practices currently in use on the audits of listed South African long-term insurers; and • views of experienced practitioners on the abovementioned types of best practices that might not be employed at the moment, but that should, in their views, be employed in future. The valuable contribution of this research to existing knowledge is clear from the fact that numerous publications in popular professional as well as accredited academic journals, plus a paper delivered at a conference have resulted from it (refer to the source list and Appendix A). Furthermore, the South African Institute of Chartered Accountants has approved a project to update existing South African guidance for auditors of long-term insurers on the basis of the findings of this research.

In the present thesis we study with-profit policy in life insurance. First we intro- duce general information about profit sharing and basic terms. We shortly look at the life insurance legislation. In the main part of thesis we look at three me- thods of calculation profit sharing and thereafter own method will be suggested. In second part of thesis we describe cash-flow model of life insurance implemented in iWorks Prophet Software. All methods with various economic scenarios and with various parameters settings will be tested in this model. Finally we analyse results of projections, we compare cash-flow for important variables a we describe advantages and disadvantages for every method.

Název práce: Cena kmene neživotního pojištění Autor: Bc. Marek Pavko Katedra: Katedra pravděpodobnosti a matematické statistky Vedoucí diplomové práce: Mgr. Pavel Koudelka, Generali Pojiš'ovna a.s. Abstrakt: V práci se věnujeme r·zným přístup·m k ocenění portfólia neživotního pojištění. Podrobněji rozebíráme návrh modelu, který zkoumá hodnotu aktuálního obchodu pojiš'ovny. Odděleně se zaměřujeme na hodnotu obchodu pocházejícího z nadbytku rezerv na jedné straně a zvláš' analyzujeme hodnotu obchodu pocházejí- cího z obnovených smluv na straně druhé. V teoretické části návrhu se zaobíráme simulační metodou bootstrap, kterou využijeme k analýze rizika škodních rezerv. Navržený model aplikujeme na reálná data, která odpovídají odvětví neživotního pojištění. V závěru práce zkoumáme citlivost hodnoty aktuálního obchodu vzhledem ke změně jednotlivých parametr· navrženého modelu a diskutujeme možnost jejich ovlivnění z pohledu pojiš'ovny. Klíčová slova: ocenění portfólia, hodnota aktuálního obchodu, bootstrap, neživotní pojištění, Solvency II 1

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:25:37Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 claudia.pdf: 454535 bytes, checksum: 114b3d1a5962249e005639ff644165de (MD5) Previous issue date: 2007-06-12 / The purpose of this paper is to study the group life insurance contract within the context of a consumer relationship, and, specifically, to investigate the possibility of characterizing the policyholder as a service provider (in the Brazilian Consumer Defense Code s legal definition) in his/its relationship with the insured. Divided into four parts, the paper initially addresses the general characteristics of insurance contracts. In addition, it analyses the peculiarities of group life insurance, mainly its complex contracting process. The third part is exclusively dedicated to the policyholder, the individual or legal entity that enters into a group policy in favor of a certain group of people, playing an important role in the management of the insurance. In the fourth part of the paper, the concepts of consumer, service provider and consumer relationship are reviewed, pursuant to the rules of the Brazilian Consumer Defense Code. Lastly, it is concluded in this paper that the relationship between policyholder and insured is a consumer relationship whenever the policyholder acts as an arm of the insurance company instead of representing the interests of the insured / Destina-se o presente trabalho a estudar o contrato de seguro de vida em grupo como relação de consumo e, em especial, investigar a possibilidade de caracterização do estipulante de seguros como fornecedor na relação que estabelece com o segurado. Dividido em quatro partes, o trabalho cuida, inicialmente, de abordar as características gerais do contrato de seguro. Depois, são estudadas as peculiaridades do seguro de vida em grupo, sobretudo o seu complexo processo de contratação. A terceira parte é dedicada exclusivamente à figura do estipulante, pessoa física ou jurídica que contrata a apólice coletiva em favor de determinado grupo de pessoas e que assume funções essenciais na administração do seguro. Na quarta parte do estudo são abordados os conceitos de consumidor, de fornecedor e de relação de consumo, segundo o CDC. Por fim, conclui-se pela classificação da relação entre estipulante e segurado como relação de consumo, quando o estipulante, ao invés de representar os interesses dos segurados, atua como braço da seguradora

This licentiate thesis examines the development of the life insurance industry during the period 1855-1914. The aim with the study is to recognise dimensions not frequently addressed by previous research on the insurance industry, namely the impact of social dimensions, including the implicit and explicit economic importance of social movements and the diffusion of knowledge in society at large for the development of the life insurance industry. The study shows that income and price had limited importance in explaining the demand for life insurance before the 20th century and that this can be attributed to a lack of sufficient knowledge regarding financial issues and to a far too high access cost in acquiring a life insurance for a large part of society. The development of the life insurance industry must therefore be understood through improved knowledge both on the part of the life insurance companies and on part of the consumers. The licentiate further shows how diffusion of knowledge throughout society also was due to a diffusion of democratic ideas and the rise of social movements, movements that life insurance actors were a part of. These actions helped open up the financial market for the masses and probably also strengthened the trust towards the industry. It is however hard to dismiss the life insurance actors’ engagement in women’s movement as a cover-up for other disguised motives not so honourable, while a direct economic gain for the life insurance industry is hard to establish.

面對21世紀與過去經濟型態具有本質上差異的新經濟的衝擊，我國壽險產業由原本的封閉時期，到市場完全被打開，又到今年我國加入WTO後，經濟環境條件變得更複雜，全球購併風四起，金融保險業界限越來越模糊，造成更多潛在競爭者蠢蠢欲動想要進入我國壽險市場。由於我國保險市場長久呈現寡佔局面，新設的保險公司是否還有機會可以在這塊大餅迅速竄起以佔一席之地？ 本研究嘗試從壽險業的公開資料及個案訪談中，希望可以將國內壽險公司，包含本土公司及外商公司進行分析研究，之後希望可以分類出不同經濟環境下，組織應該採取何種業務成長分殖模式，可以有效地保證組織持續不斷成長及分殖。 本研究主要針對我國壽險業務不同時期不同組織模式進行分析。 本研究第一部份將經由分析過去成功的壽險公司成長歷程，去探討組織成長各種可能的模式。 第二部分將利用市場數值來實際評估各階段，在不同的環境條件下，不同的組織模式的適用程度。 第三部分預測新經濟環境下，避免企業越大越僵化且能應付動態多變環境之較佳組織模式。 本研究整理發現主要兩大點結果，其中一點是認為組織的最佳模式會依環境而改變，另一點是認為一個與過去本質上具有差異的新經濟環境下，最適合的組織分殖模式是細胞型組織。 本研究指出，隨著經濟環境條件不同，組織模式設計也不同。而組織模式必須與環境相配合才可以創造高成長率。其中封閉市場環境下，適合集中管理式的組織模式設計。而開放市場環境下，則較適合內部創業的組織模式設計。若在複雜競爭環境下，則較適合細胞型的組織模式設計。 另外，透過觀察四個個案發現在開放競爭環境中，壽險業務制度設計為內部創業制度可以維持長期的成長。而且如果壽險公司業務制度設計採內部創業制度，還可以達到高保單的繼續率。另外，越符合成員擁有權的組織模式，人員定著率越高也符合一般的認知。 值得一提的是，內部發展採細胞組織的業務制度設計有助於外部發展之購併策略的成功。事實上，細胞組織確實較有助於組織分殖動作，進行新市場的開發。 由前述內容可以發現，細胞組織由於符合創業精神，因此鼓勵員工進行內部創業，不僅在組織內部進行快速的複製及分裂動作，且因為符合成員擁有權的觀念，可以讓員工有自己當老闆的心態，進而同時可以維持高品質的保單。再者因為細胞組織具有組織自我成長的動力，因此組織除了會自行進行複製之外，在新地區的開發上，也可以搭配購併策略收綜效之益；在新市場開發上，由於組織具有自我成長的能力，可以透過細胞母體（總公司）傳達理念進行分殖，發展專屬核心技能後可以拓展新市場，較競爭者更快速取得競爭優勢。因此本研究認為新經濟環境下，壽險業務制度最佳組織分殖模式為細胞組織。 / Facing on the impact of the new economy which is different from the previous one in the essence phase, Taiwan life insurance industry had change from the original oligopoly market to the completely competition one. After Taiwan joining the WTO, the former financing and insurance market boundary will blur into an unrecognized style. Under this condition of that competitors getting more and more in this market, the new setup insurance company will face a great challenge of succeeding in Taiwan life insurance market. The main object of this study is trying to analysis the organization model in the different economy stage through the manager interviewing and secondary data comparing in the open market. After the necessary data collecting, case study will provide a suitable model of predicting what is better organization form in the 21century economy environment. The first part of this research is finding every possible model of organization growth through analyzing the leading companies history. The second part is evaluating each stage of economy environment by studying the market data to see the level of adaptable between organization form and environment term. The 3 growth strategy which can help organization grow up steadily is scaling, duplication, and granulation. Scaling means do more of what you are good at, duplicating means repeat the business model in new region, and granulating is growing the selected business cell. General economy stage can be divided in to standard stage, customlized stage, and innovation stage. With the different stage, there were different primary commercial systems working. The last part is predicting the better organization form, which can meet the criteria of the difficult dynamic environment. There are 2 main results after survey shown above. One conclusion is the best organization form will change with environment variation by time. Another is that in the new economy environment, which is different from the past, the best organizational granulating model is cellular form. With the different organization condition, there should be matching with different organizational design. If and only if the organization form is suited with the environment, the organization will represent the higher growth rate. In the environment of oligopoly market, the concentrated organization is the better design. But in the open market, the organization design with developing the entrepreneurship within the organization is the better. The cellular form is the better organization design in the complex competition environment. After observing the 4 cases, there are several results that can be found. First, if the life insurance sales system design was set up with developing the entrepreneurship, it will keep a steady growth rate, and higher contract-continuing rate. The organization form with high member ownership shows lower turn over rate. At the same time, the sales system with cellular form will help the success of growth strategy. Cellular form can really help the granulating of the organization and the exploiting of new market. Cellular form meets the entrepreneurship organization design criteria implies the fast duplicating and spinning off within the organization. Cellular form meets the concepts of member ownership implies the high contract quality. Cellular form has the power of self-growth, which implies the cell can do the granulation through the way of spreading the ideal of the parent company. After the cell having developed their exclusive core-competence, a new chance of new market exploiting will be formed, so that the organization can get the competition advantage than its competitor. Company may learn the sales system from other company, but the result may different. The root cause is that their final system always different although they learn it from the same source. There is only one form is most suitable in a new economy and the form changes with time and economy style. In conclusion, the best granulation model of life insurance sales system is cellular form in the new economy environment. There was still one suggestion can be made. The new entrance competitor should achieve the economy of scale in the shortest time. The following research can consider about the idea of what’s the effect of cellular form in other industry, what’s the influence of other growth strategy on organization growing, and what’s the impact on the organization growing if the sales system unstable.

一､研究目的：藉由下列問題，以瞭解消費者追尋壽險商品利益所在： (1)「購買壽險經驗」是否因人口統計變數之不同而有差異? (2)「購買壽 險經驗」在購買壽險利益因素上有無不同? (3)「購買壽險利益因素」是 否因人口統計變數之不同而有差異? (4)「購買壽險經驗」在一般生活型 態上有無不同? (5)「生活型態」是否因人口統計變數之不同而有差異? (6)消費者之「購買壽險利益因素」與「生活型態」是否有關? (7)消費者 之保險訊息來源為何?二､研究方法： □9歲居住台北市之民眾為研究 對象，並以「普通個人壽險 便利抽樣法調查，再利用次數分配､卡方檢 定､相關分析､因素分析､ANOVA 及典型相關分析等方法分析資料。三､ 研究結果發現： 姻狀況」､「實足年齡」､「職業」及「個人月所得」 等五個人口統計變數均與購買壽險經驗有關。 者較重視「公司形象與理 賠」､「保單內容能否瞭解」等 ；而無購買壽險經驗者則無顯著之購買 壽險利益因素。 育程度」､「職業」及「個人月所得」等四個人口統計 變數，各有其較重視之購買壽險利益因素。 者較傾向於「家庭導向」､ 「追求新知」及「戶外活動」等生活型態：而無購買壽險經驗者並無顯著 的生活型態。 姻狀況」､「年齡」､「教育程度」､「職業」及「個人 月所得」等六個人口統計變數，皆各有其較傾向之生活型態。 壽險利益 因素」與「生活型態」之間，有三個典型相關。 險訊息來源依序為：親 友或同事的告知､保險招攬人員､電視或收音機之保險廣告､保險商品簡 介等四項。

一、研究目的： 本研究的目的在了解以下問題： （一）教育訓練是否能改善業務人員的保險相關知識、從業態度、銷售技巧及工作習慣。 （二）教育訓練與業務人員績效是否相關。 （三）個人之人口統計變項與績效是否相關。 （四）個人之人口統計變項與教育訓練是否相關。 二、研究方法： 本研究以國泰、新光、南山、國華、安泰、大都會、保德信、喬治亞等大台北地區營業單位之業務人員為其研究對象，並以壽險業務人員教育訓練內容（ＫＡＳＨ）之認知為研究範圍。 抽樣方法採用非隨機抽樣中的便利抽樣及集體抽樣。 本研究利用統計方法係次數分析、t test、相關分析、變異數分析、複迴歸分析及LSD等來作檢定與分析。 三、研究結果： （一）教育訓練確定能提昇業務人員保險相關知識、從業態度、銷集技巧、工作習慣並增加業務人員推動業務的信心。 （二）從業態度對績效有顯著影響。 （三）在人口統計變項方面： 1、人口統計變項對教育訓練影響情形： (1)教育程度對從業態度有顯著影響。 (2)第一家服務壽險公司及目前服務壽險公司對保險相關知識、從業態度、銷售技巧、工作習慣、信心皆有顯著影響。 (3)家庭生命週期從業態度的認知有顯著影響。 2、人口統計變項對績效影響情形： (1)壽險銷售時間長短對每月平均保費及公司排名有顯著影響。 (2)年齡對公司排名有顯著影響。 (3)第一家服務壽險公司對每月平均件數、上季達成率、公司排名有顯著影響。 (4)目前服務壽險公司每月平均保費、每月平均件數、上季達成率有顯著影響。 (5)家庭生命週期對公司排名有顯著影響。