Experimentos em que medidas são realizadas repetidamente na mesma unidade experimental são comuns na área agronômica. As técnicas estatísticas utilizadas para análise de dados desses experimentos são chamadas de análises de medidas repetidas, tendo como caso particular o estudo de dados longitudinais, em que uma mesma variável resposta é observada em várias ocasiões no tempo. Além disso, o comportamento longitudinal pode seguir um padrão não linear, o que ocorre com freqüência em estudos de crescimento. Também são comuns experimentos em que a variável resposta refere-se a contagem. Este trabalho abordou a modelagem de dados de contagem, obtidos a partir de experimentos com medidas repetidas ao longo do tempo, em que o comportamento longitudinal da variável resposta é não linear. A distribuição Poisson multivariada, com covariâncias iguais entre as medidas, foi utilizada de forma a considerar a dependência entre os componentes do vetor de observações de medidas repetidas em cada unidade experimental. O modelo proposto por Karlis e Meligkotsidou (2005) foi estendido para dados longitudinais provenientes de experimentos inteiramente casualizados. Modelos para experimentos em blocos casualizados, supondo-se efeitos fixos ou aleatórios para blocos, foram também propostos. A ocorrência de superdispersão foi considerada e modelada através da distribuição Poisson multivariada mista. A estimação dos parâmetros foi realizada através do método de máxima verossimilhança, via algoritmo EM. A metodologia proposta foi aplicada a dados simulados para cada uma das situações estudadas e a um conjunto de dados de um experimento em blocos casualizados em que foram observados o número de folhas de bromélias em seis instantes no tempo. O método mostrou-se eficiente na estimação dos parâmetros para o modelo considerando o delineamento completamente casualizado, inclusive na ocorrência de superdispersão, e delineamento em blocos casualizados com efeito fixo, sem superdispersão e efeito aleatório para blocos. No entanto, a estimação para o modelo que considera efeito fixo para blocos, na presença de superdispersão e para o parâmetro de variância do efeito aleatório para blocos precisa ser aprimorada. / Experiments in which measurements are taken in the same experimental unit are common in agriculture area. The statistical techniques used to analyse data from those experiments are called repeated measurement analysis, and longitudinal study, in which the response variable is observed along the time, is a particular case. The longitudinal behaviour can be non linear, occuring freq¨uently in growth studies. It is also common to have experiments in which the response variable refers to count data. This work approaches the modelling of count data, obtained from experiments with repeated measurements through time, in which the response variable longitudinal behaviour is non linear. The multivariate Poisson distribution, with equal covariances between measurements, was used to consider the dependence between the components of the repeated measurement observation vector in each experimental unit. The Karlis and Meligkotsidou (2005) proposal was extended to longitudinal data obtained from completely randomized. Models for randomized blocks experiments, assuming fixed or random effects for blocks, were also proposed. The occurence of overdispersion was considered and modelled through mixed multivariate Poisson distribution. The parameter estimation was done using maximum likelihood method, via EM algorithm. The methodology was applied to simulated data for all the cases studied and to a data set from a randomized block experiment in which the number of Bromeliads leaves were observed through six instants in time. The method was efficient to estimate the parameters for the completely randomized experiment, including the occurence of overdispersion, and for the randomized blocks experiments assuming fixed effect, with no overdispersion, and random effect for blocks. The estimation for the model that considers fixed effect for block, with overdispersion and for the variance parameters of the random effect for blocks must be improved.

The evolution of big data has led to financial time series becoming increasingly complex, noisy, non-stationary and nonlinear. Takens theorem can be used to analyze and forecast nonlinear time series, but even small amounts of noise can hopelessly corrupt a Takens approach. In contrast, Singular Spectrum Analysis is an excellent tool for both forecasting and noise reduction. Fortunately, it is possible to combine the Takens approach with Singular Spectrum analysis (SSA), and in fact, estimation of key parameters in Takens theorem is performed with Singular Spectrum Analysis. In this thesis, we combine the denoising abilities of SSA with the Takens theorem approach to make the manifold reconstruction outcomes of Takens theorem less sensitive to noise. In particular, in the course of performing the SSA on a noisy time series, we branch of into a Takens theorem approach. We apply this approach to a variety of noisy time series.

In this thesis, the basic tools of spatial statistics and time series analysis are applied to the case study of the earthquakes in a certain geographical region and time frame. Then some of the existing methods for joint analysis of time and space are described and applied. Finally, additional research questions about the spatial-temporal distribution of the earthquakes are posed and explored using statistical plots and models. The focus in the last section is in the relationship between number of events per year and maximum magnitude and its effect on how clustered the spatial distribution is and the relationship between distances in time and space in between consecutive events as well as the distribution of the distances.

Generalized estimating equations (GEE) are popularly utilized for the marginal analysis of longitudinal data. In order to obtain consistent regression parameter estimates, these estimating equations must be unbiased. However, when certain types of time-dependent covariates are presented, these equations can be biased unless an independence working correlation structure is employed. Moreover, in this case regression parameter estimation can be very inefficient because not all valid moment conditions are incorporated within the corresponding estimating equations. Therefore, approaches using the generalized method of moments or quadratic inference functions have been proposed for utilizing all valid moment conditions. However, we have found that such methods will not always provide valid inference and can also be improved upon in terms of finite-sample regression parameter estimation. Therefore, we propose a modified GEE approach and a selection method that will both ensure the validity of inference and improve regression parameter estimation. In addition, these modified approaches assume the data analyst knows the type of time-dependent covariate, although this likely is not the case in practice. Whereas hypothesis testing has been used to determine covariate type, we propose a novel strategy to select a working covariate type in order to avoid potentially high type II error rates with these hypothesis testing procedures. Parameter estimates resulting from our proposed method are consistent and have overall improved mean squared error relative to hypothesis testing approaches. Finally, for some real-world examples the use of mean regression models may be sensitive to skewness and outliers in the data. Therefore, we extend our approaches from their use with marginal quantile regression to modeling the conditional quantiles of the response variable. Existing and proposed methods are compared in simulation studies and application examples.

This dissertation is an evaluation of the generalization characteristics of machine learning classifiers as applied to the detection of coral reefs using remote sensing images. Three scientific studies have been conducted as part of this research: 1) Evaluation of Spatial Generalization Characteristics of a Robust Classifier as Applied to Coral Reef Habitats in Remote Islands of the Pacific Ocean 2) Coral Reef Change Detection in Remote Pacific Islands using Support Vector Machine Classifiers 3) A Generalized Machine Learning Classifier for Spatiotemporal Analysis of Coral Reefs in the Red Sea. The aim of this dissertation is to propose and evaluate a methodology for developing a robust machine learning classifier that can effectively be deployed to accurately detect coral reefs at scale. The hypothesis is that Landsat data can be used to train a classifier to detect coral reefs in remote sensing imagery and that this classifier can be trained to generalize across multiple sites. Another objective is to identify how well different classifiers perform under the generalized conditions and how unique the spectral signature of coral is as environmental conditions vary across observation sites. A methodology for validating the generalization performance of a classifier to unseen locations is proposed and implemented (Controlled Parameter Cross-Validation,). Analysis is performed using satellite imagery from nine different locations with known coral reefs (six Pacific Ocean sites and three Red Sea sites). Ground truth observations for four of the Pacific Ocean sites and two of the Red Sea sites were used to validate the proposed methodology. Within the Pacific Ocean sites, the consolidated classifier (trained on data from all sites) yielded an accuracy of 75.5% (0.778 AUC). Within the Red Sea sites, the consolidated classifier yielded an accuracy of 71.0% (0.7754 AUC). Finally, long-term change detection analysis is conducted for each of the sites evaluated. In total, over 16,700 km2 was analyzed for benthic cover type and cover change detection analysis. Within the Pacific Ocean sites, decreases in coral cover ranged from 25.3% reduction (Kingman Reef) to 42.7% reduction (Kiritimati Island). Within the Red Sea sites, decrease in coral cover ranged from 3.4% (Umluj) to 13.6% (Al Wajh).

Enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions in the U.S. is increasing, as are the numbers of students entering academically underprepared. Students in remedial mathematics represent the largest percentage of total enrollment in remedial courses, and national statistics indicate that less than half of these students pass all of the remedial math courses in which they enroll. In response to the low pass rates, numerous studies have been conducted into the use of alternative modes of instruction to increase passing rates. Despite myriad studies into course redesign, passing rates have seen no large-scale improvement. Lacking is a thorough investigation into preexisting differences between students who do and do not take remedial math. My study examined the effect of taking remedial math courses in college on degree attainment and college GPA using a subsample of the Educational Longitudinal Study of 2002. This nonexperimental study examined preexisting differences between students who did and did not take remedial math. The study incorporated propensity score matching, a statistical analysis not commonly used in educational research, to create comparison groups of matched students using multiple covariate measures. Missing value analyses and multiple imputation procedures were also incorporated as methods for identifying and handling missing data. Analyses were conducted on both matched and unmatched groups, as well as on 12 multiply imputed data sets. Binary logistic regression analyses showed that preexisting differences between students on academic, nonacademic, and non-cognitive measures significantly predicted remedial math-taking in college. Binary logistic regression analyses also indicated that students who did not take remedial math courses in college were 1.5 times more likely to earn a degree than students who took remedial math. Linear regression analyses showed that taking remedial math had a significant negative effect on mean college GPA. Students who did not take remedial math had a higher mean GPA than students who did take remedial math. These results were consistent across unmatched groups, matched groups, and all 12 multiply imputed data sets.

過去組織生態研究多半探討環境與組織死亡、創建等議題，較少從組織衰退的角度來看待仍然生存於環境中的廠商與環境的互動關係。本研究試圖瞭解企業所擁有的無形資產與企業衰退的關連，並從人力資本與社會資本理論的角度來分析，企業擁有無形資產的程度越高是否企業越不容易衰退，此外，本研究欲探討企業的人力資本與社會資本是否對環境與組織衰退的關係產生干擾效果。 本研究使用長期資料追蹤法分析資料後發現，外部環境會對企業的衰退產生影響，包含較差的經濟條件與較高的產業競爭強度都容易讓企業面臨衰退的命運。但是，當企業內所持有的人力資本與社會資本程度越高，環境對於組織衰退的影響將會減弱，此外，本研究亦發現了社會資本若干變項與企業衰退的直接效果。然而，其中若干假說出現與研究預期不一致的結果，將在論文中進行詳盡的分析。 本研究企圖處理過去較少文獻進行實證的組織衰退議題，並發現組織衰退所隱含的概念並非單純是成長的相反詞，企業在追求成長的過程中，也可能造成另一個角度的衰退跡象，亦即財務風險的增加。然而，成長與高風險亦非同時存在。透過本論文的研究結果將發現不同的人力資本與社會資本對於不同角度的組織衰退會產生不甚相同的結果。總結來說，無形資產在企業面對外部環境壓力卻必須追求生存的情況下，扮演著重要的角色。 / Most previous researches in organizational ecology field focused on the relationships between external environment, organizational death, and foundings. Organizational decline studies are relatively undeveloped, especially from the perspectives of human capital and social capital. I extend the resource-based viewpoint and dynamic capability perspective to explain the relationship between environmental pressure and organizational decline. The purpose of this study is to test the model that examines the relationship between environmental factors, human capital, social capital, and decline, and the moderating effect based on a ten-year panel data collected in Taiwan. An unbalanced panel data consists of 3,634 firm years from 399 companies in Taiwan was utilized for data analyses. Research results indicate that environmental pressure significantly influences organizational decline variables. This study also finds that the higher human capital and social capital will reduce the effect of environmental factors on decline. However, some indicators of human capital and social capital do not predict outcome variables. Contrary to expectations, some predictors represent opposite results. Although some research results do not agree with previous findings, they do contribute the knowledge and understanding of these fields.

Ovarian cancer (OC) is the fifth most common cancer among women and has the highest mortality of any cancer of the female reproductive system. The majority (61%) of OC cases are diagnosed at a distant stage. Because diagnoses occur most commonly at a late-stage and prognosis for advanced disease is poor, research focusing on the development of effective OC screening methods to facilitate early detection in high-risk, asymptomatic women is fundamental in reducing OC-specific mortality. Presently, there is no screening modality proven efficacious in reducing OC-mortality. However, transvaginal ultrasonography (TVS) has shown value in early detection of OC. TVS presents with the possibility of false positive results which occur when a women receives an abnormal TVS screening test result that is deemed benign following repeat testing (about 7% of the time). The purpose of this dissertation was to evaluate the impact of false positive TVS screening test results on a variety of psychological and behavioral outcomes using mixed and trajectory statistical modeling. The three specific aims of this dissertation were to 1) compare psychological and behavioral outcomes between women receiving normal and false positive results, 2) identify characteristics of women receiving false positive results associated with increased OC-specific distress and 3) characterize distress trajectories following receipt of false positive results. Analyses included a subset of women participating in an experimental study conducted through the University of Kentucky Ovarian Cancer Screening Program. 750 women completed longitudinal assessments: 375 false positive and 375 normal results. Mixed and group-based trajectory modeling were used to evaluate the specific aims. Results suggest women receiving false positive TVS result experience increased OC-specific distress compared to women receiving normal results. Among those receiving false positives, less education, no history of an abnormal screening test result, less optimism and more social constraint were associated with increased OC-specific distress. Family history was associated with increased distress among women with monitoring informational coping styles. Three distinct trajectories characterize the trajectory of distress over a four-month study period. Although decreasing over time, a notable proportion of women experience sustained high levels of OC-specific distress.

Experimentos em que medidas são realizadas repetidamente na mesma unidade experimental são comuns na área agronômica. As técnicas estatísticas utilizadas para análise de dados desses experimentos são chamadas de análises de medidas repetidas, tendo como caso particular o estudo de dados longitudinais, em que uma mesma variável resposta é observada em várias ocasiões no tempo. Além disso, o comportamento longitudinal pode seguir um padrão não linear, o que ocorre com freqüência em estudos de crescimento. Também são comuns experimentos em que a variável resposta refere-se a contagem. Este trabalho abordou a modelagem de dados de contagem, obtidos a partir de experimentos com medidas repetidas ao longo do tempo, em que o comportamento longitudinal da variável resposta é não linear. A distribuição Poisson multivariada, com covariâncias iguais entre as medidas, foi utilizada de forma a considerar a dependência entre os componentes do vetor de observações de medidas repetidas em cada unidade experimental. O modelo proposto por Karlis e Meligkotsidou (2005) foi estendido para dados longitudinais provenientes de experimentos inteiramente casualizados. Modelos para experimentos em blocos casualizados, supondo-se efeitos fixos ou aleatórios para blocos, foram também propostos. A ocorrência de superdispersão foi considerada e modelada através da distribuição Poisson multivariada mista. A estimação dos parâmetros foi realizada através do método de máxima verossimilhança, via algoritmo EM. A metodologia proposta foi aplicada a dados simulados para cada uma das situações estudadas e a um conjunto de dados de um experimento em blocos casualizados em que foram observados o número de folhas de bromélias em seis instantes no tempo. O método mostrou-se eficiente na estimação dos parâmetros para o modelo considerando o delineamento completamente casualizado, inclusive na ocorrência de superdispersão, e delineamento em blocos casualizados com efeito fixo, sem superdispersão e efeito aleatório para blocos. No entanto, a estimação para o modelo que considera efeito fixo para blocos, na presença de superdispersão e para o parâmetro de variância do efeito aleatório para blocos precisa ser aprimorada. / Experiments in which measurements are taken in the same experimental unit are common in agriculture area. The statistical techniques used to analyse data from those experiments are called repeated measurement analysis, and longitudinal study, in which the response variable is observed along the time, is a particular case. The longitudinal behaviour can be non linear, occuring freq¨uently in growth studies. It is also common to have experiments in which the response variable refers to count data. This work approaches the modelling of count data, obtained from experiments with repeated measurements through time, in which the response variable longitudinal behaviour is non linear. The multivariate Poisson distribution, with equal covariances between measurements, was used to consider the dependence between the components of the repeated measurement observation vector in each experimental unit. The Karlis and Meligkotsidou (2005) proposal was extended to longitudinal data obtained from completely randomized. Models for randomized blocks experiments, assuming fixed or random effects for blocks, were also proposed. The occurence of overdispersion was considered and modelled through mixed multivariate Poisson distribution. The parameter estimation was done using maximum likelihood method, via EM algorithm. The methodology was applied to simulated data for all the cases studied and to a data set from a randomized block experiment in which the number of Bromeliads leaves were observed through six instants in time. The method was efficient to estimate the parameters for the completely randomized experiment, including the occurence of overdispersion, and for the randomized blocks experiments assuming fixed effect, with no overdispersion, and random effect for blocks. The estimation for the model that considers fixed effect for block, with overdispersion and for the variance parameters of the random effect for blocks must be improved.

Grande parte dos experimentos instalados atualmente é planejada para que sejam realizadas observações ao longo do tempo, ou em diferentes profundidades, enfim, tais experimentos geralmente contem um fator longitudinal. Uma maneira de se analisar esse tipo de conjunto de dados é utilizando modelos mistos, por meio da inclusão de fatores de efeito aleatório e, fazendo uso do método da máxima verossimilhança restrita (REML), podem ser estimados os componentes de variância associados a tais fatores com um menor viés. O pacote estatístico ASReml-R, muito eficiente no ajuste de modelos lineares mistos por possuir uma grande variedade de estruturas para as matrizes de variâncias e covariâncias já implementadas, apresenta o inconveniente de nao ter como objetos as matrizes de delineamento X e Z, nem as matrizes de variâncias e covariâncias D e , sendo estas de grande importância para a verificação das pressuposições do modelo. Este trabalho reuniu ferramentas que facilitam e fornecem passos para a construção de modelos baseados na aleatorização, tais como o diagrama de Hasse, o diagrama de aleatorização e a construção de modelos mistos incluindo fatores longitudinais. Sendo o vetor de resíduos condicionais e o vetor de parâmetros de efeitos aleatórios confundidos, ou seja, não independentes, foram obtidos resíduos, denominados na literatura, resíduos com confundimento mínimo e, como proposta deste trabalho foi calculado o EBLUP com confudimento mínimo. Para tanto, foram implementadas funções que, utilizando os objetos de um modelo ajustado com o uso do pacote estatístico ASReml-R, tornam disponíveis as matrizes de interesse e calculam os resíduos com confundimento mínimo e o EBLUP com confundimento m´nimo. Para elucidar as técnicas neste apresentadas e salientar a importância da verificação das pressuposições do modelo adotado, foram considerados dois exemplos contendo fatores longitudinais, sendo o primeiro um experimento simples, visando a comparação da eficiência de diferentes coberturas em instalações avícolas, e o segundo um experimento realizado em três fases, contendo fatores inteiramente confundidos, com o objetivos de avaliar características do papel produzido por diferentes espécies de eucaliptos em diferentes idades. / Currently, most part of the experiments installed is designed to be carried out observations over time or at different depths. These experiments usually have a longitudinal factor. One way of analyzing this data set is by using mixed models through means of inclusion of random effect factors, and it is possible to estimate the variance components associated to such factors with lower bias by using the Restricted maximum likelihood method (REML). The ASRemi-R statistic package, very efficient in fitting mixed linear models because it has a wide variety of structures for the variance - covariance matrices already implemented, presents the disadvantage of having neither the design matricesX and Z, nor the variance - covariance matrices D and , and they are very important to verify the assumption of the model. This paper gathered tools which facilitate and provide steps to build models based on randomization such as the Hasse diagram, randomization diagram and the mixed model formulations including longitudinal factors. Since the conditional residuals and random effect parameters are confounded, that is, not independent, it was calculated residues called in the literature as least confounded residuals and as a proposal of this work, it was calculated the least confound EBLUP. It was implemented functions which using the objects of fitted models with the use of the ASReml-R statistic package becoming available the matrices of interests and calculate the least confounded residuals and the least confounded EBLUP. To elucidate the techniques shown in this paper and highlight the importance of the verification of the adopted models assumptions, it was considered two examples with longitudinal factors. The former example was a simple experiment and the second one conducted in three phases, containing completely confounded factors, with the purpose of evaluating the characteristics of the paper produced by different species of eucalyptus from different ages.