Future climate in temperate regions is projected to get warmer and in many cases wetter. This poses questions about how phytoplankton in our lakes will respond. A dynamic modeling approach based on an allometric description of phytoplankton characteristics was used to investigate how the biomass of different functional groups of phytoplankton will respond to a changed future climate. Simulations based on a warmer future climate scenario suggest that we will experience an increase in phytoplankton biomass in northern temperate lakes. Moreover, phytoplankton groups are projected to shift towards a dominance of cyanobacteria at the expense of diatoms. Climate may affect phytoplankton, either via in-lake changes in temperature and stratification, or due to altered processes at the watershed level, which influence rates of nutrient export and water discharge. This study found that changes in lake temperature and stratification are the major causes of the projected increase in phytoplankton biomass, but that changes in the timing of nutrient export did influence the succession of diatoms. Variation in SPIM (suspended particulate inorganic matter) can have an important role in influencing the depth of the euphotic zone in a turbid lake, and hence the light climate experienced by phytoplankton. Wind and river discharge were found to regulate SPIM in this study, not only wind as in many other studies. Variations in SPIM could be adequately described by a few governing equations. This thesis suggests that, as a result of climate change, lakes close to the limit of becoming eutrophied may be pushed past a threshold beyond which water quality problems will become more prevalent. Finally it is important to bear in mind that all models are simplifications of the reality as we understand it. Still, the use of models can often give a good indication as to what might be expected in the future.

The sand lizard (Lacerta agilis) reaches the northern periphery of its distribution in south-central Sweden, where small, isolated relict populations occur in pine heath forests on sandy sediments. Modern forestry and fire suppression have reduced the amount of suitable open habitat for the species in this area and seem to be important for its decline. Main objectives of this thesis were to evaluate the efficiency of different management strategies, and if the sand lizard can function as an umbrella species for biodiversity conservation. Over a 16-year period, the estimated annual numbers of adult females in each of two study populations fluctuated between 23 and 3. Simulations of stochastic future population growth showed that the risk of extinction was highly dependent on population growth rate, which in turn was strongly affected by juvenile survival as indicated by elasticity analysis. Simulations of population growth for 50 years showed that the quasi-extinction risk (threshold ≤ 10 females) was > 56% for patches ≤ 1 ha; which is the observed average size of suitable habitat for inhabited patches during a 10-year period. In managed metapopulation networks with highly co-fluctuating local populations, among-population dispersal was not important to reduce extinction risks over a 50-year horizon. In the field the preferred microhabitat of sand lizards was successfully restored using tree felling and patch-soil scarification. The lizards gradually colonized the restored patches, and 16 years after restoration, sand lizards where mainly found there. Pine-heath area, and patch area within individual pine heaths, were of major importance for long-term population persistence at regional and landscape scales, respectively. Analyses of nested species subsets and an umbrella index suggest that the sand lizard can be a useful cross-taxonomic umbrella species on both scales for other red-listed species.

Manmade radionuclides have been introduced to the environment for almost a century. The main source has been the nuclear weapons testing programmes, but accidental releases from the nuclear power production industries have also contributed. The risk to humans from potential releases from nuclear facilities is evaluated in safety assessments. Essential components of these assessments are exposure models, which estimate the transport of radionuclides in the environment, the uptake in biota, and transfer to humans. Recently, there has been a growing concern for radiological protection of the whole environment, not only humans, and a first attempt has been to employ model approaches based on stylised environments and transfer functions to biota based exclusively on bioconcentration factors. They are generally of a non-mechanistic nature and involve no knowledge of the actual processes involved, which is a severe limitation when assessing real ecosystems. The research presented in this thesis attempts to introduce a methodology for modelling exposure of biota that is based on systems ecological theories and concepts. All presented papers concern bioaccumulation and circulation of radionuclides in coastal areas of the Baltic Sea, which is a sea surrounded by several nuclear power plants, waste repositories and reprocessing facilities. Paper I illustrates how an ecosystem model can be used to predict the fate of C-14 in a bay, and to explore the influence of uptake route and water exchange on the concentrations in biota. Due to the longevity of many radionuclides, time spans of thousands of years need to be considered in assessments of nuclear waste facilities. In Paper II, the methodological problems associated with these long timescales are discussed and a new modelling approach is proposed. An extension and generalisation of the C-14 flow model into a generic model for other radionuclides is described and tested in Paper III. This paper also explores the importance of three radionuclide specific mechanisms (plant uptake, excretion and adsorption to organic surfaces) for the concentrations in biota. In Paper IV, the bioaccumulation kinetics of three radionuclides in three key benthic species of the Baltic Sea is studied experimentally. Paper V considers remobilisation and redistribution of sediment-associated radionuclides due to biological mixing, in a microcosm study. The findings in this thesis show both that it was possible to use an ecosystem approach to assess the exposure to biota, and that this approach can handle many of the problems identified in the use of traditional exposure models for radionuclides. To conclude, frameworks for the protection of the environment from ionising radiation would benefit from implementing methodologies based on ecologically sound principles and modelling techniques.

The purpose of this study was to identify if terrestrial arthropod predators on Baltic Sea shores vary in their use of marine versus terrestrial food items, and to construct a bottom-up food web for Baltic Sea shores. The inflow of marine nutrients in the area consists mainly of marine algal detritus and emerging aquatic insects (e.g. phantom midges, Chironomidae). Diets of coastal arthropods were examined using carbon and nitrogen stable isotope analysis, and a two source mixing model was used to examine proportions of marine carbon to diets. The results suggest that spiders are the terrestrial predators mainly utilizing nutrients and energy of marine origin on Baltic Sea shores, while insect predators such as beetles and hemipterans mainly utilize nutrients and energy derived from terrestrial sources, possibly due to differences in hunting behaviour. That spiders are the predators that benefit the most from the marine inflow suggest that eventual effects of marine subsidies for the coastal ecosystem as a whole are likely mediated by spiders.

Shallow sheltered Baltic Sea bays are ecologically important habitats that harbour a unique vegetation community and constitute vital reproduction areas for many coastal fish species. Knowledge about the invertebrate community in these bays is, however, limited. This thesis examines the macroinvertebrate community in shallow sheltered Baltic Sea bays and how it is affected by: (1) the natural morphometric isolation of bays from the sea due to post-glacial land uplift; and (2) differences in vegetation types. The invertebrate biomass and number of taxa was found to decrease with increased bay isolation. The taxon composition changed from dominance by bivalves and gastropods in open bays to a community composed of a larger proportion of insects in isolated bays. Stable isotope analysis indicated epiphytes and periphyton as the major energy resources for most of the examined consumers, but the relative importance of these in relation to larger plants decreased for some consumers with increased bay isolation. A comparison of invertebrate abundance between plants revealed a close relationship with morphological complexity of the plants. More complexly structured plants had higher invertebrate abundance than plants with simpler morphology. The results suggest that management of these coastal habitats should be dynamic and take into consideration the natural change in invertebrate community resulting from the slow bay isolation process. In addition, the results imply that changes in the aquatic vegetation due to anthropogenic influences could induce changes in the invertebrate community as the plant habitat structure is altered. A changed invertebrate community may in turn affect higher trophic levels since invertebrates are important food for many fish and waterfowl species. / At the time of the doctoral defense, the following papers were unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 2: Submitted. Paper 4: In press.

Ecological models have problems showing the positive relationship between diversity and stability found in nature. Theory states that complex food webs have high extinction risks and low stability. However, persistent food webs found in nature are large and complex containing many interconnections between species. There are many possible mechanisms enabling persistent food webs such as; complex interaction patterns, asynchronous fluctuations of species densities, environmental fluctuations and spatial distribution. These factors have not been used in classical models. In this study, coloured environmental 1/f noise and dispersal between subpopulations were incorporated into a diamond shaped food web based on a model by Vasseur and Fox 2007. Contradictions between theoretical and empirical results regarding food webs can be resolved by detailed analyses of models, withholding stabilizing mechanisms. Weak environmental 1/f noise generated an increased coefficient of stability but the stabilizing effect of noise can be questioned because of a decreased mean food web biomass and reduced stabilizing effect when reddened. However, detailed studies of the food web revealed that noise can redistribute density proportions between species, evading lowest species density and thereby increase food web resistance to demographic stochasticity and catastrophes. Noise induced density proportion shifts imply that large population sizes are no insurance towards future increase in environmental variance. Synchrony of species environmental responses and dispersal between subpopulations can both have major influences on stability and extinction risk of smaller food webs indicating that spatial structure could be one of the dominating factors stabilizing complex food webs found in nature.

Mängden död ved i brukade skogar har minskat med ungefär 90 %jämfört med naturliga skogar. Vid slutavverkning minskar mängden ytterligare. Att lämna naturhänsyn vid avverkning är ett viktigt steg för att bevara biologisk mångfald i skogslandskapet. Denna studie undersöker om naturhänsyn tas bort efter slutavverkning. På 63 % av de inventerade lokalerna hade naturhänsyn tagits bort, mestadels vindfälld tall. Det medförde en genomsnittlig minskning av mängden död ved med 2,0 m3 ha-1, vilket är en tredjedel av den totala volymen död ved lämnad vid slutavverkning. En enkät skickades till privata skogsägare. Den främsta orsaken till att man tagit bort träd var relaterade till ekonomi och produktion. Hur ekonomiskt beroende skogsägaren var av sin skog eller om man certifierat sin skog eller inte hade dock ingen betydelse för hur man hanterade naturhänsynen efter slutavverkning. Det berodde snarare på skogsägarnas attityd till produktion kontra bevarandet av biologisk mångfald. Skogsägare som tagit bort hänsynsträd var överlag mer tveksamma till att lämna olika former av naturhänsyn vid slutavverkning. Denna studie utvärderar även mängd och kvalitet på naturhänsyn lämnad efter slutavverkning i Östergötland.

Nutrient enrichment is the main cause of the increasing eutrophication process in the Baltic Sea during last century. A prerequisite counteract this process the load of nutrients to the Sea must be investigated. The large contribution of nutrients to the Sea is caused by emission from the rivers within the drainage basin. For the total emission of nutrient into the Sea the retention process in the rivers has big influence. This process in the river system has been assumed as a not important part of the nutrient cycle. However some investigators have pointed out that the retention process occurs in the river and be an important part of the nutrient dynamics in the river. For the object of investigation the Odra River Basin was chosen, as an example of a large river basin in the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin. The Odra River is mainly localized in Poland and contributes substantially to the eutrophication of the Baltic Proper. The Odra River is one of the least dammed major rivers of the Baltic Proper and as such of especial interest in retention studies. The phosphorus was chosen as an example of nutrient in the eutrophication process. The purpose of the investigation is to determine the phosphorus retention within the river. Two different models were used to calculate the retention process in the river. The"Multiple Regression Model"turned out to be insignificant, therefore the results were computed by using a “similarity model”, based on similarities between load from monitored tributary basins and the rest of the sub-basin. The retention in the Odra River in the amounted to -4608 t yr-1, which is 43% of the total phosphorus emission to the Odra River. There is also stated that in the Notec and the Warta rivers the retention process occur in the amount of -1940 t yr-1 and -3007 t yr-1 respectively.

Sedan 1992 har Jönköpings kommun drivit en naturskola i form av en exkursionsbuss, ekobussen. Verksamheten har varit inriktad mot dagsexkursioner för grundskolans senare år och gymnasieskolan under ledning av utbildad och engagerad personal. Genom åren har, i dialog med kommunens undervisande lärare, en pedagogisk modell för praktisk ekologiundervisning etablerats, där jämförande undersökningar av olika biotoper har utgjort tyngdpunkten. Man har använt ett undersökande och elevaktivt arbetssätt. Bussens utrustning har kunnat användas för avancerade mätningar och examination av djur och växter men tillhandahåller även personlig utrustning som stövlar och regnkläder. Det innebär stor flexibilitet i verksamheten. I föreliggande studie berörs hur ett upplevelsebaserat lärande kan främja ett ökat miljömedvetande. I sex gymnasieklasser har undersökts i vilken mån uppfattningarna om den pedagogiska modellen förenas hos deltagarna. Vidare har undersökts hur exkursionen integreras i övrig undervisning i ekologi- och miljöundervisningen på skolorna. Slutligen besvaras frågan hur detta uppfattats av eleverna. Studien har både kvantitativa inslag i form av enkäter till cirka deltagande 150 elever, före och efter exkursion, och kvalitativa delar som innefattar deltagande observation under sex exkursioner, intervjuer med de sju lärare och även med initiativtagaren och den ansvarige för ekobussen. Undersökningen har huvudsakligen genomförts under maj månad år 2004. Resultaten visar att verksamheten är mycket efterfrågad, både av lärare och av elever. Eleverna är i stort väl förberedda både teoretiskt och praktiskt och att upplevelserna under dagen används i efterarbetet. Hårt bokningstryck ger dock praktiska problem att inordna exkursionen i ordinarie undervisning. Exkursionsledaren kör bussen men styr också den pedagogiska verksamheten. Det finns en dynamik i processen att välja arbetsformer och parera för händelser under dagen. Det har över tid skett en förskjutning av fokus från kvantifiering av data till mera upplevelsebaserade erfarenheter. En tendens till passiv elevroll finnsi vissa situationer, när klassen lyssnar till exkursionsledarens genomgångar. Under praktiska arbetspass sker redovisningar genom att gruppen samtalar om resultaten, även om de flesta elever också får skriva en formell rapport i efterhand. Det finns en stark ambition att vara en utomhuspedagogisk modell för skolorna. Man förefaller också lyckas vara den impuls till pedagogisk utveckling av arbetsformerna som styrdokumenten för skolan uppmuntrar till. Genom sin breda kontakt med kommunens lärare påverkar ekobussens pedagogiska modell ekologi- och miljöundervisningen på ett positivt sätt. Detta kan därmed vara ett värdefullt bidrag till ett ökat miljömedvetande.

The climate affects animal populations through several processes. These processes includereproduction, phenology and the success of hunting. By influencing the phenology of species theclimate also affects the way species interact. If a climate-induced phenology change promotes abasal species to bud earlier in the spring for example, this will affect the links to other species inthe food web due to a time lag in the tropic levels above. This dependence, that a predator has tobeing synchronous to its prey, is called the match/mismatch hypothesis (MMH). Studies haveindicated that species higher up in the food web adapt slower than species lower in the food webwith shorter generation times (which creates a temporal mismatch).A climate-induced phenology change in basal species could therefore be expected to affect thedensities and extinction rates of species higher up in the food web.In this study a declining conversion efficiency for predators was used to model the effects ofclimate change on triangular food webs with three trophic levels. This was done by using ageneralized Lotka-Volterra model. The results indicate that, in a food web with three trophiclevels, the densities of herbivores and carnivores drops in response to an increased change ofclimate. The extinction rates of carnivores also increase rapidly in response to an increasedclimate change. / Klimatet påverkar djurpopulationer genom ett flertal processer. Dessa processer inkluderarreproduktion, fenologi och jaktframgång. Genom att påverka arters fenologi påverkar klimatet ävenhur arter interagerar med varandra. Om en klimatinducerad fenologiförändring stimulerar en basalart att knoppa tidigare på våren kommer det att påverka länkar till andra arter i näringsväven pågrund av en tidsförskjutning till andra trofinivåer. Detta beroende för ett rovdjur att varasynkroniserad med sitt byte kallas för match/mismatch-hypotesen (MMH). Studier har indikerat attarter högre upp i näringsväven anpassar sig långsammare än arter lägre ned i näringsväven medkortare generationstid. En klimatinducerad fenologiförändring i basala arter kan därför förväntaspåverka densiteten och utdöendehastigheten för arter högre upp i näringsväven. Studien använderen avtagande rekryteringsförmåga för att modellera klimatförändringars effekt på trianguläranäringsvävar med tre trofinivåer. För att göra detta har en generell Lotka-Volterra modell används.Från resultaten av den här studien dras också slutsatsen att, i en näringsväv med tre trofinivåer,densiteten av herbivorer och karnivorer avtar som svar på en ökad klimatförändring.Utdöendehastigheten för rovdjur ökar också snabbt som svar på en ökande klimatförändring.