This dissertation deals with a holistic and multidisciplinary approach to the socio-economic relations between the Ancient Near East and East Africa during the Old Testament period. In my opinion this multidisciplinary approach by using inter alia Biblical Archaeology, History and Economics has the potential to offer various comprehensive opportunities for the analysis and discussion of such socio-economic relationships. For example, the relationship between the United Monarchy of Israel and Phoenicia involves the geopolitical, economic and other situations. In the last chapter attempts are made to integrate all the relevant dimensions in a wellfounded conclusion. / Biblical and Ancient Studies / M.A. (Biblical Archaeology)

La région de l'Hindu-Kush Karakoram Himalaya (HKH) est la plus grande région englacée de la planète, hormis les calottes polaires. Dans cette région, les mesures météorologiques et de bilans de masse sont sporadiques et les observations glaciologiques concernent essentiellement les mesures de fluctuations des fronts des glaciers. Ainsi, la réponse de ces glaciers aux changements climatiques est très mal connue. Le but de ce travail de thèse est d'améliorer la connaissance des relations entre les variables météorologiques et les bilans de masse glaciaires à partir de l'étude du glacier du Chhota Shigri situé dans l'Ouest de l'Himalaya. De nombreuses mesures in-situ de bilans de masse, de vitesses d'écoulement, d'épaisseurs et de météorologie ont été réalisées depuis 2002 et au cours de ce PhD. Ces observations permettent d'analyser le comportement du glacier au regard des fluctuations climatiques. Entre 2002 et 2013, nos observations indiquent une perte de masse cumulée équivalente à une lame d'eau de -6.45 m. Par ailleurs, l'analyse des observations des flux de glace suggèrent que le glacier a connu un état proche d'un état d'équilibre avec des bilans nuls ou légèrement positifs au cours des années 1990. Nous avons dans un premier temps reconstitué les bilans de masse annuels et saisonniers depuis 1969 en utilisant un modèle degré-jour et des variables météorologiques simples, précipitations et températures. Depuis 1969, les bilans de masse sont faiblement négatifs, équivalents à -0.30 m d'eau par an. Cette reconstitution montre que le glacier était proche de l'état d'équilibre entre 1986 et 2000, ce qui confirme les résultats obtenus à partir de l'analyse des flux de glace et des mesures géodésiques. Cette étude montre également que la perte de masse glaciaire est récente et révèle des fluctuations de bilans de masse avant l'année 2000 très différentes de ce que l'on trouve dans la littérature. L'analyse des bilans de masse à l'échelle décennale révèle que les précipitations hivernales et les températures estivales jouent un rôle sensiblement équivalent. Afin de comprendre plus en détail les variables climatiques qui contrôlent le bilan de masse, nous avons, dans un second temps, analysé les flux d'énergie en surface à l'aide de stations météorologiques situées sur le glacier et à proximité du glacier. Le rayonnement de courtes longueurs d'onde contrôlent 80 % des flux d'énergie entrant en surface alors que les flux de chaleur latente, sensible et de conduction contribuent pour 13, 5 et 2 % respectivement du flux entrant total. Par ailleurs, notre étude montre que les événements de fortes précipitations au cours de la période de mousson jouent un rôle essentiel sur l'évolution des bilans de masse. Néanmoins, à cause du manque de données de précipitation dans cette région et le fort gradient régional, la distribution des précipitations sur le glacier reste mal connue. / The Hindu-Kush Karakoram Himalayan (HKH) region is the largest snow and ice reservoir on the planet outside the Polar Regions. In the HKH region the mass balance and meteorological observations are sparse and the historical knowledge is mainly concentrated on snout fluctuation records. Hitherto, the understanding of glacier-climate relationship is poor in the HKH region. Therefore, the goal of the present work is to improve the understanding of glacier-climate relationship on a representative glacier ‘Chhota Shigri' in the western Himalaya. A number of in-situ measurements concerning mass balances, surface velocity, ice thickness and meteorology have been collected during and before the present PhD work since 2002. These data sets were first analyzed to understand the glacier behaviour and then used in the models to understand the glacier relationship with climatic variables. Between 2002 and 2013, glacier showed a mass wastage/unsteady-state conditions with a cumulative mass loss of –6.45 m w.e. Further, the ice flux analysis over 2002-2010 suggested that the glacier has experienced a period of steady-state or slightly positive mass balance during the 1990s. We first reconstructed the annual and seasonal mass balances using a degree day model from simple meteorological variables, precipitation and temperature. This reconstruction allowed us to examine the mass balances between 1969 and 2012. Since 1969, Chhota Shigri showed a moderate mean mass wastage at a rate of −0.30 m w.e. a-1. A period of steady-state between 1986 and 2000, already suggested by ice flux analysis and geodetic measurements, was confirmed. The mass balance evolution of this glacier revealed that the mass wastage is recent and provide a very different pattern than that of usually found in the literature on western Himalayan glaciers. The analysis of decadal time scale mass balances with meteorological variables suggested that winter precipitation and summer temperature are almost equally important drivers controlling the mass balance pattern of this glacier. Second, in order to understand the detailed physical basis of climatic drivers, a surface energy balance study was also performed using the in-situ meteorological data from the ablation area of Chhota Shigri Glacier. Net all-wave radiation was the main heat flux towards surface with 80% contribution while sensible, latent heat and conductive heat fluxes shared 13%, 5% and 2% of total heat flux, respectively. Our study showed that the intensity of snowfall events during the summer-monsoon is among the most important drivers responsible for glacier-wide mass balance evolution of Chhota Shigri Glacier. However, due to the lack of precipitation measurements and the strong precipitation gradient in this region, the distribution of precipitation on the glacier remains unknown and needs further detailed investigations.

L'Egypte, territoire aride, dépend essentiellement du Nil pour l'irrigation de ses terres agricoles. La variabilité temporelle de la crue du fleuve a donc pu affecter directement la dynamique de la population égyptienne. Ici, cette hypothèse est testée en étudiant la variation du climat pendant l'Egypte ancienne parallèlement à des indicateurs du mode de vie des égyptiens. La variation dans le temps du δ18Ow de l'eau du Nil est reconstituée à partir des valeurs de δ18Op du phosphate de l'apatite de momies égyptiennes. L'augmentation de +3 ‰ du δ18Ow de l'eau du Nil entre la période Prédynastique (5500BP) et la période Gréco-Romaine (2000BP) est causée par une modification des conditions de précipitation au-dessus des sources du Nil. Elle traduit soit une hausse de température proche de 2°C soit une baisse des précipitations mensuelles d'environ 140 mm. Ici, l'hypothèse d'une aridification est privilégiée : en effet des mesures de δ18Op sur des poissons du Nil permettent de calculer une température du Nil à la période Gréco-Romaine comparable à l'actuelle. Le changement climatique constaté semble avoir peu d'impact sur la civilisation égyptienne. En effet la population égyptienne s'accroît nettement pendant la période considérée et le régime alimentaire est resté fondé sur les plantes en C3, peu adaptées aux milieux arides, avec une consommation rare de poissons et de protéines animales. La réduction de la crue a sans doute été compensée par les progrès technologiques de la civilisation égyptienne (chadouf, drainage) qui ont rendu possible la mise en culture de nouvelles terres / Egypt is an arid territory, which essentially depends on the Nile river for the irrigation of its agricultural lands. The temporal variability of the river flood thus may have affected directly the dynamics of the Egyptian population. Here, this hypothesis is tested by studying the variation of the climate during Ancient Egypt concurrently to indicators of the life habits of the Egyptians. The variation with time of the δ18Ow of the Nile water is reconstructed from the δ18Op of the apatite phosphate of Egyptian mummies. The increase of +3 ‰ in the Nile water δ18Ow between the predynastic period (5500BP) and the Greco-Roman Period (2000BP) is caused by a change in the conditions of precipitation above the Nile sources. This increase can be the result of an increase in temperature of about +2 °C or of a decrease in the monthly amount of precipitation of about 140 mm. Here, the hypothesis of aridification is preferred: in effect, δ18Op measures on Nile fishes permit to infer a Nile water temperature at the Greco-Roman Period similar to the present-day one. The climatic change seems to have had little impact on the Egyptian civilization. In effect the Egyptian population increases considerably during the selected period and its diet remains funded on C3- plants, feebly adapted to arid environments, with a rare consumption of fishes or other animal protein. The decrease of the flood was admittedly compensated by the technological advances of the Egyptian civilization (shaduf, drainage) which allowed the cultivation of newly reclaimed lands

A partir de registros isotópicos (\'delta POT.18\'O e \'delta POT.13\'C), das razões elementos traços/Ca e das taxas de crescimento de espeleotemas precisamente datados pelo método U-Th, foi possível realizar a reconstituição das mudanças de paleopluviosidade e de feições paleoambientais da região do norte do estado de Minas Gerais, com alta resolução para os últimos 28 mil anos. A interpretação do sinal climático embutido nos registros isotópico dos espeleotemas estudados são baseados em estudos prévios da série histórica de monitoramento das estações do IAEA-GNIP, em complemento com simulações das variações do \'delta POT.18\'O da chuva através de modelos climáticos computacionais, os quais indicam o fator amount effect como o principal mecanismo atuante na variação da composição isotópica das chuvas sobre a região. As variações de pluviosidade estão associadas à atividade da Zona de Convergência do Atlântico Sul (ZCAS), as quais foram utilizadas na reconstituição da variabilidade espacial do Sistema de Monções Sulamericano (SMSA) e da atuação das forçantes de insolação, oceânicas e variabilidade solar na modulação das mudanças climáticas na região desde o último período glacial. O registro paleoclimático do norte de Minas indica semelhança com as variações de pluviosidade da região nordeste do Brasil durante o período glacial entre 28 e 19 ka A.P., devido a mudanças na insolação de verão e/ou por influência da expansão do gelo no clima dos trópicos. Nesse período o registro isotópico mineiro indica condições relativamente secas, que contrastam com clima relativamente úmido registrado na região sudeste do país, assim como nas regiões tropicais dos altiplanos andinos. O padrão antifásico entre as regiões localizadas a leste e a oeste da ZCAS sugere uma migração para sudoeste do eixo de maior precipitação, relacionada ao fortalecimento da circulação meridional tipo Hadley e intensificação da alta da Bolívia. No período analisado, a intensificação da circulação zonal estabelecida entre a Alta da Bolívia e o Cavado do Nordeste estaria primariamente relacionada à maior convergência de umidade na Amazônia devido às baixas temperaturas da superfície do mar (TSMs) no Atlântico norte durante fases de maior expansão do gelo, quando a alta subtropical do Atlântico Norte e os ventos alísios de nordeste estariam mais fortalecidos. Eventos milenares de aumento de intensidade das Monções Sul-americanas durante o Glacial tardio, deglacial e Holoceno registrados em Minas Gerais são sincrônicos aos eventos abruptos frios documentados nas zonas de altas latitudes do Hemisfério Norte, a exemplo dos eventos Heinrich (2, 1), Young Dryas, 8.2 ky e eventos Bond (6, 5, 4, 2). Da mesma forma, durante os eventos quentes Dansgaard-Oescheger 2 e Bølling-Allerød foram registradas reduções da paleoprecipitação. Portanto, o bom acoplamento entre a atividade do SMSA no norte de Minas com as variações da temperatura da superfície do mar do Atlântico norte indica que, independente dos mecanismos responsáveis pelo desencadeamento de tais eventos, as mudanças na intensidade das Monções Sul-americanas se dão principalmente por teleconexão estabelecidas com condições climáticas nas zonas de altas latitudes do Hemisfério Norte, mais especificamente por alterações do gradiente de TSM do Oceano Atlântico. Ao longo do Holoceno, foi observado que o tempo de duração dos eventos abruptos de pluviosidade é mais longo durante o Holoceno Inferior e Médio e mais curto durante o Holoceno Superior. Essa relação sugere mudanças das condições de contorno do clima no transcorrer do Holoceno, possivelmente relacionadas à diminuição da cobertura de gelo no Hemisfério Norte a partir de 7 mil anos, que levou desativação da circulação termohalina que caracteriza os eventos Bond no hemisfério norte. / Relative changes in paleo-precipitation and also in paleoenvironment features were reconstructed for northern Minas Gerais State, central-eastern Brazil, during the last 28 ka B.P. The reconstruction is based on high resolution stable isotope (\'delta POT.18\'O e \'delta POT.13\'C), trace element ratios and growth rate records of speleothems precisely dated by U-Th method. The interpretation of climatic changes from the studied oxygen isotope records is taken into account the data from IAEA-GNIP monitoriting stations and from climate model simulations of \'delta POT.18\'O in precipitation, which points out to the amount effect as the dominant isotope fractionation factor controlling the \'delta POT.18\'O variations in meteoric water. The precipitation variations, associated to the activity of South American Convergence Zone (ZCAS), are used to reconstruct the spatial variability of South American Convergence Zone (SMSA) since last glacial period because of a forcing by insolation, ocean conditions e solar variability. The record from Northern Minas Gerais indicate similarities with precipitations variation documented in speleothem records from Northeastern Brazil from 28 to 19 ka B.P., because of changes in summer insolation and/or influence of glacial boundary conditions on tropical precipitation. In this period, higher 18O values of speleothems suggest the dominance of dryer conditions over the region, in contrast with the wetter climate recorded in other regions of South America such as southeastern Brazil and Andes Altiplano that are today located to the west of the ZCAS´s axis of activity. This antiphased pattern within the same continent suggest a migration of ZACS mean position to southwest due to intensification of Bolivian High and Nordeste Low upper level features in response to changes in Hadley and Walker circulation cells. Theses changes were primarily related to colder Sea Surface Temperatures in Atlantic ocean and increased rainfall over western Amazon region. Millennial-scale events of increase in monsoon precipitation during the Glacial, deglacial, and Holocene in northern Minas are synchronous with abrupt cold events recorded in the high latitude areas of North Hemisphere (N.H.), like Heinrich (2, 1), Young Dryas, 8.2 ky and Bond events. In the same way, dry periods in northern Minas were recorded during the Dansgaard-Oescheger 2 and Bølling-Allerød N.H. warm events. The coupling between the rainfall due to South America Monsoon System with sea surface temperature variation in the North Atlantic, points out to a teleconnection mechanism with climate conditions in North Atlantic ocean such the TSM gradient with the South Atlantic basin. Differences in duration of abrupt events of changes in precipitation between early and late Holocene are associated larger amplitude of TSM´s that characterize the Bond events over Atlantic Ocean. These differences were triggered by the stepwise ice melting after 7 thousand years ago.

Le Cénozoïque est marqué par une instabilité climatique et l’accélération des surrections continentales. Ces phénomènes engendrent une augmentation de la production sédimentaire, transférée par les fleuves vers le domaine marin profond. Les façades nord et ouest de l’océan Indien voient se mettre en place quatre des plus grands systèmes sédimentaires au monde : le Gange-Brahmapoutre, l’Indus, le Zambèze et le système tanzanien. Ce travail vise à comprendre les forçages agissant sur la sédimentation et l’architecture de deux des principaux systèmes turbiditiques de l’océan Indien (système tanzanien et du Gange-Brahmapoutre), pour ensuite les comparer avec leurs plus proches voisins (respectivement le Zambèze et l’Indus). Nos principaux résultats, basés sur une approche multiproxy dans les deux zones, mettent en évidence plusieurs points : (1) l’évolution tectono-sédimentaire de la marge tanzanienne au cours du Cénozoïque a mené au développement d’un système turbiditique majeur et atypique, dont la morphologie moderne atteste de l’importance de l’activité tectonique sur sa construction ; (2) le système du Gange-Brahmapoutre enregistre une activité sédimentaire polyphasée, en lien principalement avec les variations du niveau marin. Ce système est capable d’enregistrer les variations de nombreux forçages, influençant à la fois les bassins versants et le domaine marin. Le fonctionnement sédimentaire et l’architecture des systèmes turbiditiques ont révélé une grande diversité selon le contexte géodynamique et physiographique des façades étudiées. La nécessité d’intégrer l’ensemble des forçages (agissant depuis le bassin versant jusque dans le domaine marin profond) dans l’étude de l’activité sédimentaire d’un système turbiditique apparait essentielle de nos jours. / Cenozoic is marked by climatic instability and accelerating continental uplifts. Increasing sediment yield is generated, buffered and transferred by river to the deep sea. Four of the major turbidite systems in the world are located on the northern and the western margins of the Indian Ocean: the Ganges-Brahmaputra, the Indus, the Zambezi and the Tanzanian systems. This work aims to understand forcings affecting sedimentation and morphology of two main turbidite systems (Tanzanian system and Ganges-Brahmaputra system) and results have been compared with their nearest neighbors (respectively Zambezi and Indus). Based on a multiproxies approach in both area, our main results are as follows: (1) during Cenozoic, tectono-sedimentary evolution of the Tanzania margin led to the development of an atypical turbidite system wherein morphology attest of a strong structural control; (2) the Ganges-Brahmaputra system has a sedimentary activity mainly forced by sea level variations. This turbidite system records variations in many forcings impacting sedimentation from the catchment to the deep sea. Turbidite system activity and architecture revealed a strong variability mainly linked to the geodynamic and physiographic context of each studied margin. It appears necessary to integrate all forcings (affecting both the catchment and the deep sea) in the study and the understanding of sedimentary activity in a turbidite system.

La chine subtropicale est considérée comme une zone riche en biodiversité ainsi qu'une réserve naturelle abritant plusieurs espèces de plantes endémiques sous l'influence de la Mousson Asiatique (MA). Les enregistrements paléoclimatiques continus dans cette région sont trop peu nombreux pour comprendre l'évolution floristique liée aux changements climatiques qui demeure ainsi méconnue, particulièrement durant le DMG. Dans ce contexte, ce travail a pour objectifs d'étudier, au cours des derniers 40000 ans, la variabilité floristique et climatique enregistrées dans les zones humides montagneuse sub-tropicales chinoises. Notre étude s'appuie sur l'étude de deux carottes sédimentaires ou la variabilité est reconstituée à partir de l'étude palynologique. L'enregistrement le plus long (derniers 42000 ans) a été obtenu sur une carotte prélevée dans la zone humide sub-alpine de Dajiuhu, dans les montagnes Shennongjia situées en Chine centrale. Cette région est fortement influencée par la Mousson Est Asiatique (MEA) et caractérisée par des forets tempérées décidues associées à quelques taxons de conifères. L'autre enregistrement concerne une carotte (GT-2), qui quant à elle enregistre les derniers 21000 ans, prélevée dans la zone humide de Gutian, province de Guangxi au sud de la chine sous l'influence de la mousson indienne (MI). L'objectif de ce travail est de reconstituer les variations régionales de la végétation et les variations climatiques liées aux deux systèmes de mousson (MEA et MI). L'étude palynologique de nos deux carottes est complétée et renforcée par une approche multi-proxy s'appuyant sur les spores, le δ13C, l'analyse de l'échelle de gris, la susceptibilité magnétique ainsi que le degré d'humification. L'analyse du pollen dans la carotte DJH-1 révèle que le climat et la végétation ont significativement varié tout au long de ces derniers 42000 ans. La région de Dajiuhu, caractérisée aujourd'hui par des forêts denses était autrefois couvertes par des prairies alpine associés à une forêt clairsemée durant le DMG comme le laisse suggérer la prédominance des Cyperaceae et Poaceae dans les spectres polliniques. De faibles teneurs en matière organique (MOT) ainsi qu'un niveau de gris bas ont été aussi signalés durant la période glaciaire. La foret commençait à se reconstituer à partir de 14ka BP et les forets à arbre persistant ont atteint leur niveau maximale entre 10ka et 4ka BP, correspondant au maximum thermique de l'holocène. Les changements survenus après 4000BP ont été explorés aussi. La carotte GT-2 au sud de la chine sub-tropicale révèle quant à elle une végétation différente durant le dernier maximum glaciaire. Les spectres polliniques indiquent que cette période était caractérisée par des forêts de conifères associées à des forêts décidues. La prépondérance des genres décidus comme Carpinus, Betula et Corylus semble indiquer des conditions froides, alors que les pluies restaient abondantes. L'abondance du genre Tsuga, particulièrement entre 21 et 17ka BP suggère la descente de la limite forestière à des altitudes beaucoup plus basses. Les successions de biomes dans montagnes subtropicale du sud de la chine s'est étalée sur plusieurs phases : (1) la première se caractérise par des forêts décidues associées à des conifères (17-12.5ka BP), (2) la deuxième phase est dominée par les forêts decidues, (3) la troisième se caractérise par des forêts à arbres persistants associées à des arbres a feuilles caduques (12.5-9ka BP). Les deux dernières phases voient se succéder des forêts à arbres persistants (9-2.5ka BP) puis une forêt mixte, probablement liée à l'activité humaine. La comparaison entre les deux sites d'étude confirme que les changements de végétation durant le DMG étaient importants. / Subtropical China is considered as an important region for biodiversity and a great natural reserve for endemic plant species, where the climate is mainly controlled by Asian Monsoon (AM). Since the recent decades, few continuous records so far covering the last glacial period in this area have been studied. In consequence, the past floristic evolution and vegetation-climate changes during particularly the Last Glacial period are still unclear. In this study, two cores from subtropical mountain wetlands were studied by means of palynology and other multidisciplinary proxies. The longer studied material covering the last 42 ka was obtained from a sub-alpine wetland in Dajiuhu, Shennongjia Mountains of central China, where the present-day vegetation is temperate deciduous forest mixed with some conifer taxa, and the climate is greatly influenced by the East Asian monsoon (EAM). The other material, core GT-2, collected in Gutian wetland of Guangxi Province in south China has an age of 21 ka can reflect the changes of evergreen forest and climate which is controled by the Indian monsoon (IM) overlapped with EAM. The aim of the current study is to reconstruct the regional vegetation and climate changes, and better understand the variability of two monsoon system (EAM and IM) since the last glacial period. Multi-proxy analysis including pollen and spore, stable carbon isotope (δ13C), sediment gray-scale (GS), magnetic suscepbitility (MS),peat humification (HD) and so on were perfomed for evaluating the regional environment changes. The overall result can be summarized as below: The pollen analysis from the DJH-1 core reveals that the past vegetation and climate in northern subtropical zone of central China varied significantly over the last 42 ka. The vegetation in Dajiuhu region, dominated by dense temperate forest today, was an alpine meadow with sparse mixed forest during the last glacial characterized by predominant Cyperaceae and Poaceae in the pollen spectra. Other proxies show that the lowest TOC content and lighter gray-scale in the glacial interval. The broadleaved forest began to return since 14 cal ka BP, and the evergreen broadleaved trees attained their highest level between ~10 and 4 cal ka BP, accordance in timing with the Holocene thermal maximum. A change at 4000 cal BP in pollen spretra was also investigated. The results from the core GT-2 in southern subtropical zone of China suggest a different replacement of vegetation during the last glacial. Pollen data indicate that a dense mixed forest of coniferous and deciduous broadleaved forest covered the southern subtropical mountains during the LGM (21-12.5 cal ka BP). The grass was however in low percentage. The high percentage of deciduous taxa such as Carpinus, Betula and Corylus indicate a colder condition, whereas the rainfall maintains abundant. The relatively high amount of Tsuga particularly during 21-17 cal ka BP suggests an important lowering of vertical forest belt. The biome changes in the southern subtropical mountains since the last glacial maximum can be outlined as follow: (1) deciduous and coniferous mixed forest (21-17 ka BP); (2) deciduous broadleaved forest (17-12.5 ka BP); (3) deciduous and evergreen mixed forest (12.5-9 ka BP); (4) evergreen broadleaved forest (9-2.5 cal ka BP) and (5) Mixed forest (from 2.5 cal ka BP) possible caused by human activity. The comparison of the two studied sites confirms that the shift of vegetation zone during the last glacial period is important. The alpine tree line might decend at an amplitude of more than 1000 m lower than that of today, and the temperate zone of deciduous broadleaved forest moved southwards to Guangxi Province (e.g. from about 30 to 22 latitude N ). The rapid increase of braodleved forest in central China began at about 10 cal ka BP, whereas the return to evergreen forest in Guangxi of southern subtropical zone took place at ca. 9 cal ka BP.

The land–atmosphere interactions and the coupling between climate and land surface hydrological processes are gaining interest in the recent past. The increased knowledge in hydro climatology and the global hydrological cycle, with terrestrial and atmospheric feedbacks, led to the utilization of the climate variables and atmospheric tele-connections in modeling the hydrological processes like rainfall and runoff. Numerous statistical and dynamical models employing different combinations of predictor variables and mathematical equations have been developed on this aspect. The relevance of predictor variables is usually measured through the observed linear correlation between the predictor and the predictand. However, many predictor climatic variables are found to have been switching the relationships over time, which demands a replacement of these variables. The unsatisfactory performance of both the statistical and dynamical models demands a more authentic method for assessing the dependency between the climatic variables and hydrologic processes by taking into account the nonlinear causal relationships and the instability due to these nonlinear interactions. The most obvious cause for limited predictability in even a perfect model with high resolution observations is the nonlinearity of the hydrological systems [Bloschl and Zehe, 2005]. This is mainly due to the chaotic nature of the weather and its sensitiveness to initial conditions [Lorenz, 1963], which restricts the predictability of day-to-day weather to only a few days or weeks. The present thesis deals with developing association rules to extract the causal relationships between the climatic variables and rainfall and to unearth the frequent predictor patterns that precede the extreme episodes of rainfall using a time series data mining algorithm. The inherent nonlinearity and uncertainty due to the chaotic nature of hydrologic processes (rainfall and runoff) is modeled through a nonlinear prediction method. Methodologies are developed to increase the predictability and reduce the predictive uncertainty of chaotic hydrologic series. A data mining algorithm making use of the concepts of minimal occurrences with constraints and time lags is used to discover association rules between extreme rainfall events and climatic indices. The algorithm considers only the extreme events as the target episodes (consequents) by separating these from the normal episodes, which are quite frequent and finds the time-lagged relationships with the climatic indices, which are treated as the antecedents. Association rules are generated for all the five homogenous regions of India (as defined by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology) and also for All India by making use of the data from 1960-1982. The analysis of the rules shows that strong relationships exist between the extreme rainfall events and the climatic indices chosen, i.e., Darwin Sea Level Pressure (DSLP), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Nino 3.4 and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) values. Validation of the rules using data for the period 1983-2005, clearly shows that most of the rules are repeating and for some rules, even if they are not exactly the same, the combinations of the indices mentioned in these rules are the same during validation period with slight variations in the representative classes taken by the indices. The significance of treating rainfall as a chaotic system instead of a stochastic system for a better understanding of the underlying dynamics has been taken up by various studies recently. However, an important limitation of all these approaches is the dependence on a single method for identifying the chaotic nature and the parameters involved. In the present study, an attempt is made to identify chaos using various techniques and the behaviour of daily rainfall series in different regions. Daily rainfall data of three regions with contrasting characteristics (mainly in the spatial area covered), Malaprabha river basin, Mahanadi river basin and All India for the period 1955 to 2000 are used for the study. Auto-correlation and mutual information methods are used to determine the delay time for the phase space reconstruction. Optimum embedding dimension is determined using correlation dimension, false nearest neighbour algorithm and also nonlinear prediction methods. The low embedding dimensions obtained from these methods indicate the existence of low dimensional chaos in the three rainfall series considered. Correlation dimension method is repeated on the phase randomized and first derivative of the data series to check the existence of any pseudo low-dimensional chaos [Osborne and Provenzale, 1989]. Positive Lyapunov exponents obtained prove the exponential divergence of the trajectories and hence the unpredictability. Surrogate data test is also done to further confirm the nonlinear structure of the rainfall series. A limit in predictability in chaotic system arises mainly due to its sensitivity to the infinitesimal changes in its initial conditions and also due to the ineffectiveness of the model to reveal the underlying dynamics of the system. In the present study, an attempt is made to quantify these uncertainties involved and thereby improve the predictability by adopting a nonlinear ensemble prediction. A range of plausible parameters is used for generating an ensemble of predictions of rainfall for each year separately for the period 1996 to 2000 using the data till the preceding year. For analyzing the sensitiveness to initial conditions, predictions are made from two different months in a year viz., from the beginning of January and June. The reasonably good predictions obtained indicate the efficiency of the nonlinear prediction method for predicting the rainfall series. Also, the rank probability skill score and the rank histograms show that the ensembles generated are reliable with a good spread and skill. A comparison of results of the three regions indicates that although they are chaotic in nature, the spatial averaging over a large area can increase the dimension and improve the predictability, thus destroying the chaotic nature. The predictability of the chaotic daily rainfall series is improved by utilizing information from various climatic indices and adopting a multivariate nonlinear ensemble prediction. Daily rainfall data of Malaprabha river basin, India for the period 1955 to 2000 is used for the study. A multivariate phase space is generated, considering a climate data set of 16 variables. The redundancy, if any, of this atmospheric data set is further removed by employing principal component analysis (PCA) method and thereby reducing it to 8 principal components (PCs). This multivariate series (rainfall along with 8 PCs) are found to exhibit a low dimensional chaotic nature with dimension 10. Nonlinear prediction is done using univariate series (rainfall alone) and multivariate series for different combinations of embedding dimensions and delay times. The uncertainty in initial conditions is thus addressed by reconstructing the phase space using different combinations of parameters. The ensembles generated from multivariate predictions are found to be better than those from univariate predictions. The uncertainty in predictions is reduced or in other words, the predictability is improved by adopting multivariate nonlinear ensemble prediction. The restriction on predictability of a chaotic series can thus be reduced by quantifying the uncertainty in the initial conditions and also by including other possible variables, which may influence the system. Even though, the sensitivity to initial conditions limit the predictability in chaotic systems, a prediction algorithm capable of resolving the fine structure of the chaotic attractor can reduce the prediction uncertainty to some extent. All the traditional chaotic prediction methods are based on local models since these methods model the sudden divergence of the trajectories with different local functions. Conceptually, global models are ineffective in modeling the highly unstable structure of the chaotic attractor [Sivakumar et al., 2002a]. This study focuses on combining a local learning wavelet analysis (decomposition) model with a global feedforward neural network model and its implementation on phase space prediction of chaotic streamflow series. The daily streamflow series at Basantpur station in Mahanadi basin, India is found to exhibit a chaotic nature with dimension varying from 5-7. Quantification of uncertainties in future predictions are done by creating an ensemble of predictions with wavelet network using a range of plausible embedding dimension and delay time. Compared with traditional local approximation approach, the total predictive uncertainty in the streamflow is reduced when modeled with wavelet networks for different lead times. Localization property of wavelets, utilizing different dilation and translation parameters, helps in capturing most of the statistical properties of the observed data. The need for bringing together the characteristics of both local and global approaches to model the unstable yet ordered chaotic attractor is clearly demonstrated.

La mousson d'Afrique de l'Ouest se caractérise par une très forte variabilité des pluies à toutes les échelles spatiales et temporelles. Le travail de thèse se focalise sur la variabilité synoptique et intra-saisonnière de la mousson, dont les impacts socio-économiques peuvent être dramatiques dans cette zone subsaharienne. L'objectif est d'une part de contribuer à la documentation statistique de cette variabilité et la compréhension de la physique associée, et d'autre part de mettre à profit le potentiel de prédictibilité associée à ces échelles pour guider les prévisions à courte et moyenne échéances. Au Sahel, l'humidité est un des facteurs importants pour l'activité pluviométrique, avec souvent un effet limitant sur le déclenchement de la convection profonde. Dès lors ce travail de thèse s'est focalisé sur l'humidité intégrée sur la colonne ou eau précipitable, pour étudier la variabilité de la mousson. L'activité des ondes d'est, principales perturbations synoptiques de l'atmosphère ouest-africaine pendant l'été boréal, a été détectée et analysée sous cette perspective de l'eau précipitable. Cette étude a ouvert une voie à la compréhension du couplage onde et convection au sein de la mousson. Une analyse conjointe des contributions dynamiques et diabatiques à la physique des ondes a été ensuite entreprise. Il ressort que, la dynamique, via les transports d'énergie associée à l'état de base fortement barocline du Sahel, est un élément précurseur et prédominant dans la couche d'atmosphère en-dessous du jet d'est africain. En revanche, dès que les ondes atteignent leur phase de maturité, le rôle de convection devient primordial grâce aux sources de chauffage et puits d'humidité qu'elle introduit dans l'atmosphère. En outre, elle engendre un transfert turbulent et convectif de quantité de mouvement horizontal, de la surface vers les couches plus hautes, permettant de renforcer les circulations dans la moyenne troposphère. La compréhension du couplage onde-convection ouvre alors une perspective à l'amélioration des modèles de prévision du temps sur l'Afrique. / The West African monsoon rainfall experiences a large spatial and temporal variability. In this thesis, a focus has been given on the synoptic to intra-seasonal scales which can lead to dramatic socio-economic consequences over Sahelian areas. The main goal is, on the one hand, to document and hence to better understand the physics associated with such scales of variability, and on the other hand, to provide some useful tools to improve short to medium ranges forecast skill over Africa. Over the Sahel, the supply of humidity is a key feature in the rainfall distribution and mostly a limiting factor to the initiation of deep convection. Therefore, the current study is based on the total column integrated specific humidity, also called precipitable water, to disentangle the important physics involved in the monsoon intra-seasonal variability and more specifically on the synoptic scale. African Easterly Waves (AEW), also known as the main synoptic scale disturbances of the Western African atmosphere during the boreal summer, have been detected and characterized from this "moist" perspective. This study then provides a new approach for studying the coupling between AEW and convection. A joint assessment of both dynamic and diabatic contributions to the AEW growth has been undertaken. Dynamics is, through the baroclinic and barotropic energy transport, a precursor and a predominant mechanism in the layer below the African easterly jet. However, since convection is enhancing, diabatic processes become accounting for a crucial role in the atmospheric circulation through the release of heat as well as the humidity sink. Meanwhile, subgrid convective scale eddies transport a large part of the horizontal momentum, from the surface to the mid-levels. This enhances the midtroposheric cyclonic/anticyclonic circulation of the AEW. Finally, this process-based analysis of the coupling between dynamics and convection provides some useful tools for model assessment and improvement over Africa.

Då de flesta människor i Västafrika, framför allt de som bor innanför kustzonen, livnär sig på jordbruk så är pålitliga väderprognoser och säsongsförutsägelser ett viktigt hjälpmedel i det dagliga arbetet och planeringen. I den här rapporten har en litteraturstudie gjorts för att öka kunskapen om de komplexa, både lokala och storskaliga, väderfenomen som ger upphov till nederbörd i området.   Klimatet i Västafrika, ett område som mestadels täcks av regnskog eller savann, präglas av den västafrikanska monsunen som ger regnperiod under norra halvklotets sommar och torrperiod på vintern. Denna monsun visar på stor årlig variation när det gäller dess inledande faser, och prognoser som kan förutsäga dess början är nödvändigt när en jordbrukare ska planera säsongens verksamhet. Av många bidragande faktorer framgår det tydligt att ytvattentemperaturen i Guineabukten är en av de viktigaste parametrarna för monsunens startskede. Den intertropiska konvergenszonen, ITCZ, betraktas som monsunens nordligaste del och denna konvergenszon gör en plötsligt och relativt snabb förflyttning norrut, i fortsättningen benämnd som språnget, över ca 5 breddgrader, vilket av många ses som starten på regnperioden. En tillfällig tryckgradient som uppstår på grund av en tillfällig men skarp temperaturgradient är den bakomliggande orsaken till detta språng. Den i särklass viktigaste processen som ger upphov till regn i Västafrika är konvektion och även om mycket konvektiv nederbörd faller i samband med monsunen så uppstår det även många lokala och mesoskaliga konvektiva system inom monsunen, framförallt kopplat till ostliga vågor. / Since most people in West Africa, particularly those who live away from the shore, work within agriculture, reliable weather forecasts are important in the daily work. In this report, a literature study has been conducted to increase the knowledge about the complex and local weather phenomenon that causes rain.   West Africa is dominated by rainforest and savannah, and the climate is characterized by the West African monsoon which gives rise to a wet season in the northern hemisphere summer and a dry season during the winter. The monsoon shows wide annual variability in its initial stages and forecasts that can predict its beginning is necessary to the farmers who have to decide when and what to plant. Out of many contributing factors, the sea surface temperature seems to be one of the main parameters that have an impact on the starting stage of the monsoon. The inter tropical convergence zone, ITCZ, is regarded as the northernmost part of the monsoon and it makes a sudden and relatively quick jump over about 5 degrees latitude, which is widely regarded as the start of the rainy season. A temporary pressure gradient caused by differences in temperature adjacent to the ITCZ is the reason for this jump. The dominant process that causes rainfall in West Africa is convection. Although a lot of convective precipitation falls in connection with the northern part of the monsoon, convective systems can appear inside the monsoon flow, often linked to African easterly waves.

La variabilité du système climatique influence la productivité et la distribution des espèces marines sur toutes les échelles de temps, de la variabilité saisonnière et inter-annuelle aux cycles glaciaires-interglaciaires. Mais ces liens entre climat et écosystèmes marins sont encore largement méconnus, de telle sorte que les prévisions des changements à venir sont difficiles. De plus, parce que les indicateurs paléoclimatiques issus des archives marines sont souvent liés au fonctionnement de l’écosystème, cette méconnaissance limite la fiabilité de la reconstruction de la variabilité climatique passée.Ce travail de thèse vise à améliorer notre connaissance de ces liens entre climat et écosystèmes marins : nous nous sommes intéressés aux changements de productivité marine au cours du dernier cycle glaciaire-interglaciaire, et nous nous sommes aussi penchés sur la réponse de l’écosystème, incluant l'ensemble des niveaux de la chaine trophique, à la variabilité inter-annuelle à décennale en climat pré-industriel. Ce travail est basé sur l’utilisation d’un modèle climatique (IPSL-CM), d’un modèle de biogéochimie marine (PISCES) et d’un modèle de niveaux trophiques supérieurs (APECOSM).Dans un premier temps, nous montrons que le lien entre l’intensité de la mousson indienne et la productivité primaire marine, en été boréal dans la mer d’Arabie, n’est pas direct. En effet, il apparait indispensable pour comprendre les changements de productivité de considérer, en plus de l'intensité de la mousson, la structure de la mousson. En particulier, la position du Jet de Findlater par rapport à la côte de la péninsule arabique est un paramètre important puisqu'elle conditionne la dynamique d'Ekman dans la région.Dans un second temps, nous avons étudié les variations de la productivité marine au large de l'embouchure du fleuve Congo et leurs liens avec le fleuve et les changements de dynamique atmosphérique africaine. Ce travail a mis en évidence que la relation entre l'intensité de la mousson et l'intensité des alizés, souvent utilisée dans les reconstructions climatiques, n'est pas toujours vérifiée. Selon le climat étudié, l'importance des effets thermiques ou dynamiques sur les changements de précipitations et de vents simulés est différente.Dans un troisième temps, nous avons étudié l'effet de la variabilité inter-annuelle sur les changements de productivité passés et sur le signal climatique potentiellement enregistré par des indicateurs climatiques biologiques.Enfin, la dernière partie de cette thèse se focalise sur la réponse des organismes marins des haut-niveaux trophiques à la variabilité climatique à différentes fréquences. Ce travail a révélé que les organismes marins répondent de façons différentes aux variations environnementales en fonction de leur taille et de leur habitat. / Climate variability influences marine primary productivity and marine species distribution over all timescales, from seasonal to interannual variability and glacial-interglacial cycles. The links between climate and marine ecosystems are still sparsely known so that the predictions of futur changes are difficult. Moreover, because paleoclimate recorders extracted from marine archives are often linked to the functionning of the ecosystem, this lack of knowledge limits our ability to reconstruct past climate variability.This thesis work aims at improving our knowledge of these links between climate and marine ecosystems : we have looked into marine productivity changes during the last glacial-interglacial cycle, but we also examined the "end-to-end" ecosystem response to inter-annual to decadal variability in a pre-industrial climate. This work uses a climate model (IPSL-CM), a bio-geochemical model (PISCES) and a model of high trophic levels (APECOSM).First, we show that the link between Indian summer monsoon intensity and marine primary productivity in the Arabian Sea is indirect. Indeed, it appears necessary to consider the monsoon pattern, such as the Findlater Jet position, which drives the Ekman dynamics in the region, as well as its intensity to understand the productivity changes.Second, we study the marine productivity changes off the Congo river mouth and their links with the river runoff and the African atmospheric dynamics. This work shows that the relationship between monsoon intensity and trade winds intensity, often used to reconstruct past changes, is not always verified. Depending on the climate, thermal or dynamical effects are more or less prominent drivers of the simulated changes in precipitation and winds. Productivity off the Congo river mouth, which is mainly located in the subsurface, seems more affected by the ocean and atmosphere dynamics than by the river supply in nutrients.Third, we study the inter-annual variability effects over past productivity changes and over the climatic signal potentially recorded in the biological climate proxies.Finally, the last part of the thesis focuses on high trophic levels marine organisms response to climate variability at different frequencies. This study shows that marine organisms response to environmental changes varies with the organism' size and habitat.