Point estimates of the Standard Chain Ladder method (CLM) and of the more complex Munich Chain Ladder method (MCL) are compared to real data on 38 different datasets in order to evaluate if MCL produces better predictions on average with a dataset from an arbitrary insurance portfolio. MCL is also examined to determine if the future paid and incurred claims converge as time progresses. A bootstrap model based on MCL (BMCL) is examined in order to evaluate its possibility to estimate the probability density function (PDF) of future claims and observable claim development results (OCDR). The results show that the paid and incurred predictions by MCL converge. The results also show that when considering all datasets MCL produce on average better estimations than CLM with paid data but no improvement can be seen with incurred data. Further the results show that by considering a subset of datasets which fulfil certain criteria, or by only considering accident years after 1999 the percentage of datasets in which MCL produce superior estimations increases. When examining BMCL one finds that it can produce estimated PDFs of ultimate reserves and OCDRs, however the mean of estimate of ultimate reserves does not converge to the MCL estimates nor do the mean of the OCDRs converge to zero. In order to get the right convergence the estimated OCDR PDFs are centered and the mean of the BMCL estimated ultimate reserve is set to the MCL estimate by multiplication. / Punktskattningar gjorda med Standard Chain Ladder (CLM) och den mer komplexa Munich Chain Ladder-metoden (MCL) jämförs med verklig data för 38 olika dataset för att evaluera om MCL ger bättre prediktioner i genomsnitt än CLM för en godtycklig försäkringsportfölj. MCLs prediktioner undersöks också för att se om de betalda och de kända skadekostnaderna konvergerar. En bootstrapmodell baserad på MCL (BMCL) undersöks för att utvärdera om möjligheterna att estimera täthetsfunktionen (probability density function, PDF) av framtida skadekostnader och av ”observable claim development results (OCDR)”. Resultaten visar att MCLs estimerade betalda och kända skadekostnader konvergerar. Resultaten visar även att när man evaluerar alla dataseten så ger MCL i genomsnitt bättre prediktioner än CLM med betald data, men ingen förbättring kan ses med CLM med känd skadekostnadsdata. Vidare visar resultaten även att genom att bara titta på dataset som uppfyller vissa krav, eller genom att bara använda olycksår efter 1999, så ökar andelen dataset där MCL ger bättre prediktioner än CLM.Vid evaluering av BMCL ser man att den kan producera estimerade PDF:er för ultimo-reserver och OCDR:er, men att medelvärdet av ultimo-reserv prediktionerna från BMCL inte konvergerar mot MCL-prediktionerna och att medelvärdet av OCDR:erna inte konvergerar mot noll. För att få rätt konvergens så centreras OCDR PDF:erna och ultimo-reservernas medelvärden sätts till motsvarande MCL-prediktionens värde genom multiplikation.

Thesis advisor: Donald Fishman / This thesis examines and compares the terrorist attacks at the 1972 Munich Olympics and the 2013 Boston Marathon in order to assess the ongoing vulnerability to terrorism at international sporting events, in specific, and the global environment, in general. In each of these instances, terrorists took advantage of the vulnerability of large international sporting events and launched attacks that had both political and social implications. Although each attack had separate motives, results, and repercussions, both incidents served as crises in a rising media age and impacted public policy. This paper compares and contrasts the 1972 Munich Olympics and the 2013 Boston Marathon through theoretical analyses of Downs’ Issue Attention Cycle and Birkland’s Focusing Events Theory, as well as through a comparison of the crises’ dominant features. Over the course of the 40 years separating the events, security and emergency response methods have improved, as have technology, media, and information flow. Even with these modern techniques, however, today’s generation, as with its predecessors, still lives in an age of vulnerability to terrorism. The conclusion combines the analysis of the issue-attention cycle and the potential public policy changes in accordance with the 1972 Munich Olympics attack and the 2013 Boston Marathon bombings to argue that there is no fool-proof prevention method to the issue of vulnerability to terrorism and that the global community will to continue to be vulnerable in the future. / Thesis (BA) — Boston College, 2014. / Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Communication Honors Program. / Discipline: Communications.

No description available.

The study of terrorism has gained attention and prominence post-September 11, 2001. Much of the literature on terrorism is teleological, and many authors focus their research on America’s involvement with terrorism in the Middle East beginning with the Iran hostage crisis in 1979. Accordingly, the literature fails to highlight the rise of terrorism in the Middle East and the importance of the Middle East to American foreign policy during the Nixon Administration. This study looks at how the American media and the American government conceptualized terrorism during the Nixon Administration, from 1969 to 1974. An analysis of American print media sources demonstrates that terrorism was associated with the Middle East more than other regions in the later years of Nixon’s presidency. American government documents reveal that the government linked terrorism with the Middle East after a fundamental shift in the perception of terrorism took place after the Munich Olympics massacre in 1972. In order to understand the contemporary manifestation of terrorism in American life, it is imperative to understand the history of how America conceptualized terrorism.

The study of terrorism has gained attention and prominence post-September 11, 2001. Much of the literature on terrorism is teleological, and many authors focus their research on America’s involvement with terrorism in the Middle East beginning with the Iran hostage crisis in 1979. Accordingly, the literature fails to highlight the rise of terrorism in the Middle East and the importance of the Middle East to American foreign policy during the Nixon Administration. This study looks at how the American media and the American government conceptualized terrorism during the Nixon Administration, from 1969 to 1974. An analysis of American print media sources demonstrates that terrorism was associated with the Middle East more than other regions in the later years of Nixon’s presidency. American government documents reveal that the government linked terrorism with the Middle East after a fundamental shift in the perception of terrorism took place after the Munich Olympics massacre in 1972. In order to understand the contemporary manifestation of terrorism in American life, it is imperative to understand the history of how America conceptualized terrorism.

Dissertation--München, 2004.

Habilitationsschrift--Mainz, 1979-1980.

Texte remanié de: Diss.--Philosophische Fakultät--Bonn--Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität, 1991.

Diss.--Bochum--Universität, 1991.

No description available.