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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
31

The Variable use of ne in Negative Structures: An Apparent-Time Variationist Study of Synchronous Electronic French Discourse

Gould, Rebecca J. 12 1900 (has links)
This study of the variable use of ne in synchronous electronic French discourse follows the methodological guidelines and the theoretical framework proposed and subsequently elaborated by Labov for analyzing variable features of language. This thesis provides a quantitative variable rule (i.e., VARBRUL) analysis including age as a factor group (i.e., independent variable), thereby making a new contribution to this area of inquiry. The data (50,000 words from the vingtaine 'twentysomething' channel and 50,000 words from the cinquantaine 'fiftysomething' channel) are a subset of 100,000 words from a corpus of one million words collected in 2008 by the thesis director from the public chat server EuropNet. This study aims to answer the following overarching question: To what extent does age-compared to other factors-influence the variable use of ne in verbal negation in synchronous electronic French discourse? In order to answer this question, and possibly others, the VARBRUL analysis will include age, subject (e.g., noun vs. pronoun), type of second negative particle (e.g., pas 'not', jamais 'never', personne 'no one'/'nobody', and so forth), as well as verbal mood/tense.
32

False negative results for blood tested in the presence of chemical interferents

Gheevarghese, Reshma Mariam 09 February 2022 (has links)
Blood is considered one of the most widely tested biological matrices. The first step in blood identification involves visual examination followed by presumptive testing. Once a positive presumptive result is observed, confirmatory tests are performed to determine that a stain is human blood, thus reducing the time and resources spent on forensically irrelevant samples. When interfering agents are present, this general workflow is hindered as presumptive tests can render false-negative results. General awareness of these interfering agents can help analysts to recognize forensically relevant evidence that may have otherwise been deemed immaterial. The main objective of this study was to understand various interfering agents and their effects on presumptive blood tests such as Kastle Meyer (KM) and Orthotolidine (O-tol) reagents and confirmatory tests such as HemaTrace® and Rapid Stain Identification (RSID™) Blood. Additional experiments explored the effects on downstream DNA analysis. In the first part of the study, bloodstains in varying concentrations were exposed to ten chemical interferents over a period of time to understand how blood dilution, age of the stain, and the chemical nature of the interferent affect presumptive blood test results. Antioxidants, active oxygen, and tannins are known to interrupt the mechanism of presumptive tests. Thus, ten interfering agents (ascorbic acid, chlorogenic acid, catechin, sodium percarbonate, hydrogen peroxide, oxalic acid, proanthocyanidins, quebracho extract, chestnut extract, and theaflavin) were selected based on these characteristics. Six blood dilutions (neat, 1:10, 1:50, 1:100, 1:500, and 1:1000) were exposed to the interferents, and presumptive tests for blood were conducted on six days (day 1, 8, 22, 43, 71, and 106). The second part of the study examined bloodstains deposited on real-world samples (wines, citrus fruit juices, teas, coffee, cleaning agents, and leather products) containing chemical interferents. In addition, confirmatory testing for human blood was conducted with HemaTrace® and RSID™-Blood on day 106 using the 1:500 dilution. Finally, DNA analysis of 1:10 dilution stains was performed on day 150 to study whether downstream DNA analysis was compromised due to the presence of the interferents. The results showed that as blood concentration reduced, more false-negative results were observed when chemical interferents were present. Further, chemical interferents produced frequent atypical color changes in tests with KM and O-tol reagents, while only some atypical color changes were observed with the household products tested. Immunochromatographic assay results indicated both HemaTrace® and RSID™-Blood could detect the presence of blood when interfering agents are present, although the positive result bands with RSID™-Blood were faint and sometimes difficult to visualize. Poor DNA results from the untreated blood sample limited any interpretation of the DNA results obtained from bloodstains deposited on household products. Overall, the data indicates that valuable blood evidence may be overlooked due to faint or false-negative results when these interferents are present. Future studies should focus on how these interferents may affect downstream DNA analysis.
33

From "y as plus personne qui parle" to "plus personne ne dit rien": The variable use of the negative particle ne in synchronous French chat.

van Compernolle, Rémi A. 05 1900 (has links)
This study analyzes negative particle variation (i.e., the variable presence or absence of the negative particle ne) in synchronous French chat discourse within a labovian-inspired framework. Selected morphosyntactic, lexical, and phonological constraints are considered. Multivariate analyses performed by GoldVarb 2001 revealed that subject type (i.e., NP, [- overt] subject environment, pronoun) and the phonological environment preceding the position of neregardless of its presence or absenceare determining factors in the variation. In addition, discursive-pragmatic effect was explored in a sub-sample of data. The results indicate that ne is seldom present in verbal negation during explanatory discourse style, yet it is very likely to be retained in ludic, emphatic, and proverbial styles.
34

Eficácia de gestão de unidades de conservação gerenciadas pelo Instituto Florestal de São Paulo, Brasil

Faria, Helder Henrique de [UNESP] 13 August 2004 (has links) (PDF)
Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:31:27Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2004-08-13Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T19:20:31Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 faria_hh_dr_prud.pdf: 3211857 bytes, checksum: 9ad3025abd233237d0db8dd14cb505ac (MD5) / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / Para muitos autores, as unidades de conservação da natureza, ou áreas protegidas, são ou serão os últimos baluartes da conservação estrita da biodiversidade, sendo esta razão, não excludente de outras, a principal motivadora para a existência de uma gestão verdadeiramente eficaz, que conduza ao alcance dos objetivos para os quais elas são criadas. A avaliação da eficácia de gestão através de procedimentos metodológicos estruturados com base na utilização de indicadores é uma importante ferramenta de suporte à gestão, pois possibilita a coleta periódica e sistemática sobre a qualidade da gestão, facilita a priorização de assistências e investimentos pontuais e a realimentação do sistema gerencial. Nesta pesquisa, verificou-se a eficácia de gestão de unidades de conservação de São Paulo adotando-se e adaptando-se um procedimento metodológico desenvolvido originalmente na Costa Rica, posteriormente adaptado à realidade das unidades de conservação de vários países da América Latina. Os princípios do procedimento são o uso de indicadores e critérios estritos para a qualificação, associados a uma escala de valoração geral. O universo do estudo envolveu 59 áreas gerenciadas pelo Instituto Florestal de São Paulo, sendo 41 do grupo de proteção integral e 18 do grupo de uso sustentável, totalizando 69% do total das UCs e quase 90% da superfície total sob a guarda da organização, representando 782.622,25ha. Para a coleta de dados utilizou-se a bibliografia disponível sobre o sistema em análise, oficinas de avaliação coletiva, entrevistas e visitas a áreas previamente selecionadas. A análise dos indicadores e das ameaças demonstraram as debilidades da organização e a fragilidade com que a gestão de muitas unidades de conservação é levada a termo... / For many authors, the conservation units (UCs) or protected areas are or will be the last bastions of the strict conservation of biodiversity, being this reason (not exculpatory of others) one of the main reasons for the existence of a truly effective management, that leads to the reach of the objectives for which they are created. The evaluation of the effectiveness management through structuralized procedures on the basis of the use of pointers is an important tool of support to the management, therefore it makes possible the periodic and systematic collection on the quality of the management, it makes easier and gives priority to help and prompt investments and the feedback of the management system. In this research adopting themselves developed methodological procedure from Costa Rica, later adapted to the reality of the protected areas of some countries from Latin America. The principles of the procedure are the strict use of indicators and criteria for the qualification, associates to a scale of general valuation. The universe of the study involved 59 protected areas managed for the Forest Institute of São Paulo, being 41 of the group of integral protection and 18 of the group of sustainable use, totalizing 69% of the total of UCs and almost 90% of the total surface under the guard of the organization, representing 782.622,25ha. For the data collection, has been used available bibliography on the system in analysis, workshops of collective evaluation, interviews and technical visits the areas previously selected. The indicators and the threats analysis had demonstrated to the debility of the organization and the fragility with that the management of many units of conservation is taken the term. The majority of the UCs had the management classified as inferior and medium standards of quality, demonstrating as many negative aspects as positive, unfortunately reigning the first ones... (Complete abstract, click electronic address below)
35

Etude de la production d'ions négatifs sur des surfaces de carbone dans un plasma d'hydrogène sans Cs à basse pression

Ahmad, Ahmad 22 November 2012 (has links)
Cette thèse porte sur l'étude de la production d'ions négatifs (INs) en surface pour des applications à la fusion contrôlée. Les INs formés en surface d'un échantillon dans un plasma d'hydrogène à partir de bombardement par les ions positifs sont collectés et analysés en énergie par un spectromètre de masse (SM). Les fonctions de distribution en énergie des INs (FDIs) que mesure le SM sont différentes de celles émises par la surface f(E, Θ) du fait des modifications de trajectoires et d'énergie induites par la traversée du plasma et du SM. Afin de déterminer la FDI émis par la surface f(E, Θ) en se servant des fonctions de distribution mesurée par le SM f''(E) nous avons développé un modèle qui calcule les trajectoires des ions entre la surface et le détecteur du SM. A partir d'une fonction test f(E,Θ) il est alors possible de calculer f''(E) et de comparer à l'expérience. L'élément critique de cette méthode est le choix de f (E, Θ). Le choix effectué dans cette thèse est la fonction de distribution des neutres calculée par le logiciel SRIM pour les particules pulvérisées et rétrodiffusées lors de bombardement d'une surface dans des conditions similaires aux conditions expérimentales. Les résultats du modèle montrent un bon accord entre les FDIs expérimentales et les fonctions calculées, et valident nos calculs et le choix de SRIM.Dans le but de comparer les mécanismes de production et les rendements des INs, une étude comparative a été réalisée sur différents matériaux carbonés. Les FDIs mesurées présentent la même forme à la température ambiante. / This thesis deals with negative ions (INs) surface production for applications in controlled fusion. Negative ions (NIs) formed at the sample surface from positive ions bombardment in hydrogen plasma are collected and analyzed with energy mass spectrometer (MS). The NI energy distribution functions (NIDF) measured by the MS are different from those emitted from surface f(E, Θ) due to modifications trajectories and energies which result when NI cross plasma and MS. In order to determine the NIDF emitted by the surface f(E,Θ) using the NIDF measured by MS f''(E), we developed a model that calculates the ion trajectories between the surface and MS detector. Then from a test function f(E,Θ) it is possible to calculate f''(E) and compare it to the experimental one. The critical issue is this method is the choice of f(E, Θ). The approach used in this thesis is the neutral backscattered and sputtered distribution function calculated by SRIM software during a surface bombardment similar to the experimental conditions. The model resulting show a good agreement between experimental and calculated NIDF, and validate our calculations and the choice of SRIM.In order to compare production mechanisms and NIs yields, a comparative study on different carbons materials was performed. Measured NIDFs show the same shape at room temperature. This indicates that the mechanisms involved in the NI production and the contribution of these mechanisms in the NIDF are the same for all materials. The best NI yield at low temperature is observed on DLC surface. The highest NI yield for all temperatures is observed on Boron doped diamond (BDD) surface at 400°C.
36

Distribution lipidique et voies métaboliques chez quatre bactéries gram-négatives hydrocarbonoclastes. Variation en fonction de la source de carbone

Soltani, Mohamed 18 June 2004 (has links) (PDF)
Les principaux objectifs de ce travail de recherche étaient (i) l'étude de la composition lipidique de quatre bactéries Gram-négatives hydrocarbonoclastes Marinobacter hydrocarbonoclasticus, Marinobacter aquaeolei, Acinetobacter calcoaceticus et Pseudomonas oleovorans en fonction de la source de carbone, (ii) la détermination des différents voies métaboliques de dégradation des hydrocarbures comportant une chaîne alkyle et (iii) mieux connaître la composition en Β-hydroxy acides lipopolysaccharidiques de leurs membranes extérieures. La première partie de ce travail présente une description qualitative et quantitative des lipides "non liés", labiles en milieu basique et labiles en milieu acide de M. hydrocarbonoclasticus en fonction de l'hydrocarbure (alcanes normaux et ramifiés, phényl et cyclohexyl-alcanes, et 1-alcène) utilisé comme source unique de carbone et d'énergie. Ces résultats ont montré que la structure chimique des lipides identifiés suit celle de l'hydrocarbure fourni: apparition de proportions significatives et dans certains cas très importantes d'acides gras issus de la dégradation de ces composés. Les Β-hydroxy acides des LPS sont moins sensibles au changement de la structure de l'hydrocarbure. Le n-Β-12:0 est toujours dominant alors que les Β-hydroxy acides provenant de la dégradation des hydrocarbures peuvent être incorporés aux LPS mais ne constituent que des composés mineurs. La présence d'intermédiaires métaboliques de chaque hydrocarbure dans les lipides "non liés" a permis la détermination des différents voies métaboliques de dégradation. La deuxième partie de ce travail porte sur la composition lipidique des bactéries M. aqueolei, A. calcoaceticus et P. oleovorans en fonction de la source de carbone (acétate ou alcane). Cette partie a montré le degrés de variabilité des acides gras chez les bactéries Gram-négatives M. aquaeolei et A. calcoaceticus: substitution des acides gras normaux pairs par des acides gras de même parité et même squelette que l'alcane utilisé. Chez P. oleovorans l'utilisation d'alcanes courts se manifeste aussi bien sur la distribution des acides gras membranaire que sur la composition en Β-hydroxy acides des LPS. Enfin, les Β-hydroxy acides issus des quatre bactéries étudiées sont essentiellement normaux pairs de C10 à C14 dont le composé prédominant est dépendant de l'espèce bactérienne.
37

Niederenergetische Elektronen- und Protonen-Transfer Prozesse

Haufler, Eckart 15 January 1997 (has links)
Im Mittelpunkt der vorliegenden Arbeit stehen sehr elementaren chemische Reaktionen in der Gasphase: Elektron-Transfer Prozesse oder die Uebertragung eines einzelnen Protons. Der Schwerpunkt liegt dabei auf der Untersuchung der Reaktions-Dynamik, die sich in der Energie- und Winkelverteilung der Produkte aeussert. Neben einer schon vorhandenen Guided-Ion-Beam Apparatur, in der ein durch elektrische Hochfrequenzfelder gefuehrter Ionenstrahl mit dem Neutralgas in einer Streukammer wechselwirkt, wurde fuer die Untersuchungen eine neu aufgebaute Apparatur TITAP (Transverse Ion Trap APparatus) verwendet, in der unter Verwendung eines 22Pol Ionen-Speichers ein Streuexperiment zwischen einem Molekularstrahl von Neutralteilchen und einem stationaeren Ionentarget realisiert wird. Die Aussagen der Experimente in beiden Apparaturen ergaenzen sich dabei. Als Beispiel fuer einen Protonen bzw. Deuteronenaustausch wurden fuer die sehr fundamentale Reaktion H- + D2 -> D- + HD und ihre isotopische Variante D- + H2 -> H- + HD integrale und differentielle Querschnitte bestimmt. In guter Uebereinstimmung mit Ergebnissen einer Kreuzstrahlapparatur zeigt die Reaktion eine ausgepraegte Vorwaertsstreuung bei kleinen Stossenergien. Fuer den Elektron-Transfer konnten sowohl in einfachen dreiatomigen Systemen (Ar+ + N2, Ar+ + D2) wie auch in Reaktionen von Edelgas-Ionen mit Kohlenwasserstoffen (Ethan, Propan) Translationsexoergizitaeten bei kleinen Stossenergien (<= 1eV) bestimmt werden. Im Fall der Kohlenwasserstoffe zeigt sich bei Variation der Stossenergie im Bereich 100meV bis 5 eV nur eine geringe Aenderung der Verzweigungsverhaeltnisse fuer die entstehenden unterschiedlichen Fragmente. Die Empfindlichkeit der Speichertechnik fuer sehr langsam ablaufende Prozesse wurde am Beispiel der Feinstruktur-Relaxation von Argon-Ionen in Stoessen mit Helium bei tiefen Temperaturen gezeigt. Die neue Apparatur hat aber noch grosse Vorzuege fuer weitere geplante Projekte, wie die Untersuchung von Reaktionen mit Radikalen (Wasserstoff-, Stickstoff-, Kohlenstoffatomen) oder Elektron-Ion Rekombination.
38

Einfluss von ERß-Agonisten auf Wachstum und Invasion von triple-negativen Mammakarzinomzellen / Influence of estrogen ß agonists on growth and invasion of triple-negative breast cancer cells

Hinsche, Oliver 04 November 2015 (has links)
Die Metastasierung in den Knochen ist beim fortgeschrittenen Mammakarzinom ein häufiges Problem. Insbesondere die Mammakarzinome, welche keinen Östrogenrezeptor α (ERα), keinen Östrogenrezeptor ß (ERß) und keine Überexpression des human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (Her2/neu) aufweisen, die so genannten triple-negativen Mammakarzinome (TNBCs), werden als sehr aggressiv angesehen und haben eine schlechte Prognose. Kürzlich konnten wir zeigen, dass die Invasion von Mammakarzinomzellen in Kokultur mit der Osteoblastenähnlichen Zelllinie MG63 stark anstieg. Unter Verwendung dieses Modells haben wir nun untersucht, inwieweit der ERß eine Rolle bei der Zellinvasion von TNBC-Zellen in vitro spielt. Die ERα-und ERß-Proteinexpression wurde mithilfe des Western Blot-Verfahrens untersucht. Die Zellinvasion wurde mithilfe der Migrationsrate von TNBC-Zellen durch eine künstliche Basalmembran in einer modifizierten Boyden-Kammer während Kokultur mit der Osteoblastenähnlichen Zelllinie MG63 quantifiziert. Die Migration wurde mithilfe eines Scratch-Assays untersucht. Die Wirkung der ERß-Agonisten auf die CXC motif chemokine receptor 4 (CXCR4)-Proteinexpression während der Kokultur mit der Osteoblastenähnlichen Zelllinie MG63 wurde mithilfe des Western Blot-Verfahrens analysiert. Die Proliferation ist mit dem almarBlue®assay untersucht worden. Die TNBC-Zellen HCC1806 und HCC1937 zeigten keine ERα-Proteinexpression, jedoch eine hohe ERß-Proteinexpression. Die Zellinvasion der TNBC-Zelllinien HCC1806 und HCC 1937 zeigte in Kokultur mit Osteoblastenähnlichen Zelllinie MG63 einen signifikanten Anstieg. Die Behandlung mit den selektiven ERß-Agonisten Liquiritigenin und ERB-41 reduzierte die Invasion der TNBC-Zellen durch eine künstliche Basalmembran als Antwort auf eine zelluläre Stimulation. Während der Kokultur stieg die CXCR4-Proteinexpression der TNBC- Zelllinien HCC1806 und HCC1937 signifikant an. Die Behandlung mit Liquiritigenin resultierte in einem signifikanten Abfall der CXCR4-Proteinexpression. Beide ERß-Agonisten zeigten keinen Effekt auf die Proliferation der TNBC-Zelllinien. Unsere Ergebnisse weisen darauf hin, dass der ERß eine wesentliche Rolle bei der Invasion von TNBC-Zellen spielt. Die knochengerichtete Invasion kann durch ERß-Agonisten inhibiert werden.
39

Modelando ocorrência e abundância de espécies arbóreas no entorno de uma usina hidroelétrica no sul do Brasil

Guarino, Ernestino de Souza Gomes January 2010 (has links)
Modelos de ocorrência e abundância de espécies são importantes ferramentas para a elaboração de estrategias para a conservação da biodiversidade. Nestes artigos aplicamos, pela primeira vez, modelos de distribuição e abundância no entorno de uma Usina Hidroelétrica no Sul do Brasil, com o objetivo de mostrar possíveis aplicações destas técnicas no planejamento de ações de coleta e conservação, in situ e ex situ, destas espécies. Nossos objetivos secundários foram (i) modelar a ocorrência e abundância de plantas em um trecho da bacia do rio Pelotas e (ii) verificar o efeito da detectabilidade em modelos de ocorrência. Para tanto dividimos a tese em dois capítulos e cinco questões. No primeiro capítulo procuramos responder as seguintes questões: (1) existe relação entre a probabilidade de ocorrência e a abundância observada? (2) Modelos baseados na abundância são melhores para predizer a ocorrência de espécies do que modelos baseados apenas na ocorrência das espécies? No segundo capítulo, tentamos responder se (3) amostragens exaustivas, com presenças e ausências bem descritas, produzem modelos de ocorrência mais precisos? (4) Se a relação entre a ocorrência da espécie e as variáveis ambientais que descrevem sua distribuição é alterada de acordo com a detectabilidade? (5) Qual o impacto de falsos zeros na área ocupada estimada para a espécie? O trabalho foi realizado no entorno da UHE Barra Grande, erguida no rio Pelotas, entre os Estados de Santa Catarina e Rio Grande do Sul. Localizada na bacia do rio Pelotas, seu reservatório ocupa uma área de aproximadamente 90 km2 e seu entorno perfaz uma área aproximada de 4.600 km2, onde amostramos 388 parcelas georreferenciadas (10 x 50 m) distribuídas aleatoriamente. Em cada parcela contamos o número de indivíduos de nove espécies arborescente com altura ≥ 1,5 m. No primeiro artigo, modelamos, utilizando modelos lineares generalizados (GLM), a distribuição e abundância das nove espécies estudadas em relação a 15 variáveis ambientais, e demonstramos que modelos de ocorrência são mais precisos do que modelos de abundância. Demonstramos também que a probabilidade de ocorrência é positivamente correlacionada com a abundância observada, o que abre a possibilidade de utilizarmos a probabilidade de ocorrência como um indicador da abundância das espécies. No segundo capítulo, verificamos o impacto de falhas de detecção em modelos de distribuição de espécies, utilizando como espécie modelo A. angustifolia. Simulamos o impacto de falsos zeros na precisão dos modelos, na seleção das variáveis resposta (variáveis ambientais) e nas estimativas de área ocupada pela espécie. A redução da detectabilidade ocasionou alterações tanto na precisão dos modelos quanto na área estimada de ocorrência e nas variáveis ambientais que explicam a ocorrência de A. angustifolia. A área ocupada não apresentou padrão bem definido, porém mostrou tendência de elevação de acordo com a diminuição da detectabilidade, elevando com isso o erro de comissão dos modelos. A precisão dos modelos (AUC e correlação entre probabilidade de ocorrência e abundância observada), apresentou queda em relação ao redução da detectabilidade, enquanto apenas uma variável ambiental foi incluída em todos os modelos (pH do solo). Existe um grande possibilidade de uso destas técnicas como informação básica para planos de conservação, monitoramento e manejo da biodiversidade no entorno de empreendimentos hidroelétricos, porém, para que possamos tirar inferências fortes sobre as espécies e ecossistemas em questão, devemos observar sempre a necessidade de levar em conta os impactos da detecção imperfeita das espécies. / Species occurrence and abundance models are important tools in the development of biodiversity conservation strategies. This study presents, for the first time, the application of distribution and abundance models in the environment surrounding a hydropower dam in southern Brazil. The aim is to demonstrate the possible application of these techniques in planning collection and conservation strategies of the species inhabiting the area, in situ and ex situ. We also aimed at (i) modeling the occurrence and abundance of plants in a section of the Pelotas River basin and (ii) verifying the effect of detectability in occurrence models. This thesis was therefore divided into two chapters and five questions. The first chapter is an attempt to answer the following questions: (1) Is there a relationship between occurrence probability and abundance? (2) Are models based on abundance better to predict the occurrence of species as compared to models that utilize only species occurrence? The second chapter addresses the questions: (3) Do exhaustive sampling procedures, with well-sampled presences and absences, lead to more accurate occurrence models? (4) Does detectability influence the relationship between species occurrence and environmental variables? (5) What is the impact of false zeros in the estimated area occupied by one given species? This study was conducted in the area surrounding the hydropower plant “Barra Grande”, in the Pelotas River, on the border of the Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina states. Located in the Pelotas River basin, the dam occupies an area of approximately 90 km². The surrounding area accounts for 4,600 km², where 388 plots with 10 x 50 m were randomly distributed and georeferenced. In each plot, individuals of nine selected tree species taller than 1.5 m were surveyed. In the first paper, we modeled the distribution and abundance of the species studied using generalized linear models (GLMs), utilizing 15 environmental variables. Occurrence models were proved to be more accurate than abundance models. The positive correlation between occurrence probability and observed abundance was also demonstrated, which opens the possibility to utilize occurrence probability as an indicator of species abundance. The second chapter reports the impact of failures in detection in species distribution models, using A. angustifolia as model species. We simulated the impact of false zeros in model accuracy, in the selection of response variables (environmental variables) and in estimates of the area occupied by A. angustifolia. The decrease in detectability caused changes in both model accuracy and in the environmental variables that explain the occurrence of A. angustifolia. The area occupied did not have a well-defined pattern, though it showed a trend towards elevation, in accordance with the decrease in detectability, thus raising the commission error in the model. The accuracy of models (AUC and correlation between occurrence probability and observed abundance) decreased with the decrease in detectability, while only one environmental variable was included in all models (soil pH). These techniques offer great potential in the collection of essential information in biodiversity conservation, monitoring and managements strategies in hydropower projects. However, robust inferences about species and ecosystems in question can only be drawn considering the need to evaluate the impact caused by defective species detection.
40

Modelando ocorrência e abundância de espécies arbóreas no entorno de uma usina hidroelétrica no sul do Brasil

Guarino, Ernestino de Souza Gomes January 2010 (has links)
Modelos de ocorrência e abundância de espécies são importantes ferramentas para a elaboração de estrategias para a conservação da biodiversidade. Nestes artigos aplicamos, pela primeira vez, modelos de distribuição e abundância no entorno de uma Usina Hidroelétrica no Sul do Brasil, com o objetivo de mostrar possíveis aplicações destas técnicas no planejamento de ações de coleta e conservação, in situ e ex situ, destas espécies. Nossos objetivos secundários foram (i) modelar a ocorrência e abundância de plantas em um trecho da bacia do rio Pelotas e (ii) verificar o efeito da detectabilidade em modelos de ocorrência. Para tanto dividimos a tese em dois capítulos e cinco questões. No primeiro capítulo procuramos responder as seguintes questões: (1) existe relação entre a probabilidade de ocorrência e a abundância observada? (2) Modelos baseados na abundância são melhores para predizer a ocorrência de espécies do que modelos baseados apenas na ocorrência das espécies? No segundo capítulo, tentamos responder se (3) amostragens exaustivas, com presenças e ausências bem descritas, produzem modelos de ocorrência mais precisos? (4) Se a relação entre a ocorrência da espécie e as variáveis ambientais que descrevem sua distribuição é alterada de acordo com a detectabilidade? (5) Qual o impacto de falsos zeros na área ocupada estimada para a espécie? O trabalho foi realizado no entorno da UHE Barra Grande, erguida no rio Pelotas, entre os Estados de Santa Catarina e Rio Grande do Sul. Localizada na bacia do rio Pelotas, seu reservatório ocupa uma área de aproximadamente 90 km2 e seu entorno perfaz uma área aproximada de 4.600 km2, onde amostramos 388 parcelas georreferenciadas (10 x 50 m) distribuídas aleatoriamente. Em cada parcela contamos o número de indivíduos de nove espécies arborescente com altura ≥ 1,5 m. No primeiro artigo, modelamos, utilizando modelos lineares generalizados (GLM), a distribuição e abundância das nove espécies estudadas em relação a 15 variáveis ambientais, e demonstramos que modelos de ocorrência são mais precisos do que modelos de abundância. Demonstramos também que a probabilidade de ocorrência é positivamente correlacionada com a abundância observada, o que abre a possibilidade de utilizarmos a probabilidade de ocorrência como um indicador da abundância das espécies. No segundo capítulo, verificamos o impacto de falhas de detecção em modelos de distribuição de espécies, utilizando como espécie modelo A. angustifolia. Simulamos o impacto de falsos zeros na precisão dos modelos, na seleção das variáveis resposta (variáveis ambientais) e nas estimativas de área ocupada pela espécie. A redução da detectabilidade ocasionou alterações tanto na precisão dos modelos quanto na área estimada de ocorrência e nas variáveis ambientais que explicam a ocorrência de A. angustifolia. A área ocupada não apresentou padrão bem definido, porém mostrou tendência de elevação de acordo com a diminuição da detectabilidade, elevando com isso o erro de comissão dos modelos. A precisão dos modelos (AUC e correlação entre probabilidade de ocorrência e abundância observada), apresentou queda em relação ao redução da detectabilidade, enquanto apenas uma variável ambiental foi incluída em todos os modelos (pH do solo). Existe um grande possibilidade de uso destas técnicas como informação básica para planos de conservação, monitoramento e manejo da biodiversidade no entorno de empreendimentos hidroelétricos, porém, para que possamos tirar inferências fortes sobre as espécies e ecossistemas em questão, devemos observar sempre a necessidade de levar em conta os impactos da detecção imperfeita das espécies. / Species occurrence and abundance models are important tools in the development of biodiversity conservation strategies. This study presents, for the first time, the application of distribution and abundance models in the environment surrounding a hydropower dam in southern Brazil. The aim is to demonstrate the possible application of these techniques in planning collection and conservation strategies of the species inhabiting the area, in situ and ex situ. We also aimed at (i) modeling the occurrence and abundance of plants in a section of the Pelotas River basin and (ii) verifying the effect of detectability in occurrence models. This thesis was therefore divided into two chapters and five questions. The first chapter is an attempt to answer the following questions: (1) Is there a relationship between occurrence probability and abundance? (2) Are models based on abundance better to predict the occurrence of species as compared to models that utilize only species occurrence? The second chapter addresses the questions: (3) Do exhaustive sampling procedures, with well-sampled presences and absences, lead to more accurate occurrence models? (4) Does detectability influence the relationship between species occurrence and environmental variables? (5) What is the impact of false zeros in the estimated area occupied by one given species? This study was conducted in the area surrounding the hydropower plant “Barra Grande”, in the Pelotas River, on the border of the Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina states. Located in the Pelotas River basin, the dam occupies an area of approximately 90 km². The surrounding area accounts for 4,600 km², where 388 plots with 10 x 50 m were randomly distributed and georeferenced. In each plot, individuals of nine selected tree species taller than 1.5 m were surveyed. In the first paper, we modeled the distribution and abundance of the species studied using generalized linear models (GLMs), utilizing 15 environmental variables. Occurrence models were proved to be more accurate than abundance models. The positive correlation between occurrence probability and observed abundance was also demonstrated, which opens the possibility to utilize occurrence probability as an indicator of species abundance. The second chapter reports the impact of failures in detection in species distribution models, using A. angustifolia as model species. We simulated the impact of false zeros in model accuracy, in the selection of response variables (environmental variables) and in estimates of the area occupied by A. angustifolia. The decrease in detectability caused changes in both model accuracy and in the environmental variables that explain the occurrence of A. angustifolia. The area occupied did not have a well-defined pattern, though it showed a trend towards elevation, in accordance with the decrease in detectability, thus raising the commission error in the model. The accuracy of models (AUC and correlation between occurrence probability and observed abundance) decreased with the decrease in detectability, while only one environmental variable was included in all models (soil pH). These techniques offer great potential in the collection of essential information in biodiversity conservation, monitoring and managements strategies in hydropower projects. However, robust inferences about species and ecosystems in question can only be drawn considering the need to evaluate the impact caused by defective species detection.

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