Thesis (M.A.) - Simon Fraser University, 2005. / Theses (Dept. of Political Science) / Simon Fraser University.

Thesis (M.A.) - Simon Fraser University, 2005. / Theses (Dept. of Political Science) / Simon Fraser University.

Nuclear weapons proliferation produces a vehement global safety and security concern. Perhaps most threatening is the scenario of a rogue nation or a terrorist organization acquiring nuclear weapons where the conventional ideas of nuclear deterrence may not apply. To combat this threat, innovative tools are needed that will help to improve understanding of the pathways an organization will take in attempting to obtain nuclear weapons and in predicting those pathways based on existing evidence. In this work, a methodology was developed for predicting these pathways. This methodology uses a Bayesian network. An organization’s motivations and key resources are evaluated to produce the prior probability distributions for various pathways. These probability distributions are updated as evidence is added. The methodology is implemented through the use of the commercially available Bayesian network software package, Netica. A few simple scenarios are considered to show that the model’s predictions agree with intuition. These scenarios are also used to explore the model’s strengths and limitations. The model provides a means to measure the relative threat that an organization poses to nuclear proliferation and can identify potential pathways that an organization will likely pursue. Thus, the model can serve to facilitate preventative efforts in nuclear proliferation. The model shows that an organization’s motivations biased the various pathways more than their resources; however, resources had a greater impact on an organization’s overall chance of success. Limitations of this model are that (1) it can not account for deception, (2) it can not account for parallel weapon programs, and (3) the accuracy of the output can only be as good as the user input. This work developed the first, published, quantitative methodology for predicting nuclear proliferation with consideration for how an organization’s motivations impact their pathway probabilities.

Thesis (M.S. in Defense Analysis)--Naval Postgraduate School, June 2008. / Thesis Advisor(s): O'Connell, Robert. "June 2008." Description based on title screen as viewed on August 26, 2008. Includes bibliographical references (p. 45-47). Also available in print.

Thesis (M.A. in Security Studies (Homeland Security and Defense)--Naval Postgraduate School, March 2006. / Thesis Advisor(s): Christopher Bellavita. "March 2006." Includes bibliographical references (p. 93-97). Also available online.

Thesis (M.A. in Security Studies (Homeland Security and Defense))--Naval Postgraduate School, December 2009. / Thesis Advisor(s): Knopf, Jeffrey. Second Reader: Davis, Zachary. "December 2009." Description based on title screen as viewed on February 1, 2010. Author(s) subject terms: Nuclear terrorism, nuclear forensics, attribution, deterrence, risk of nuclear terrorism, probability of nuclear terrorism, consequences of nuclear terrorism, post-detonation response. Includes bibliographical references (p. 83-95). Also available in print.

An indirect crisis, the terrorist attacks of September 1 1 , is used as a catalyst to review the tasks of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime. However, it is insufficient to initiate a comprehensive change to the regime to incorporate the challenge from non-state nuclear terrorism. There will not be a change of regime, understood in terms of principles and norms. Yet, potential for change within the regime exists, with regard to rules and procedures. This is demonstrated by analysing the organisational and state levels of the regime through a synthesis of rationalist and weak-cognitivist assumptions. The organisational level is more adaptable in light of new information and more susceptible to change. Two factors limit this change. Member states will handle issues arising from the crisis outside the venue of the regime. Also, consensual knowledge among actors remains key for significant change to occur. An indirect crisis lacks the force to cultivate an epistemic community able to promote such knowledge among decision-makers.

Thesis (M.A.). / Written for the Dept. of Political Science. Title from title page of PDF (viewed 2008/07/28). Includes bibliographical references.

No description available.

An assessment methodology has been developed at Texas A&M University for predicting weapons useable material acquisition by a terrorist organization or rogue state based on an acquisition network simulation. The network has been designed to include all of the materials, facilities, and expertise (each of which are represented by a unique node) that must be obtained to acquire Special Nuclear Material (SNM). Using various historical cases and open source expert opinion, the resources required to successfully obtain the goal of every node within the network was determined. A visual representation of the network was created within Microsoft Visio and uses Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) to analyze the network. This tool can be used to predict the most likely pathway(s) that a predefined organization would take in attempting to acquire SNM. The methodology uses the resources available to the organization, along with any of the nodes to which the organization may already have access, to determine which path the organization is most likely to attempt. Using this resource based decision model, various sample simulations were run to exercise the program. The results of these simulations were in accordance with what was expected for the resources allocated to the organization being modeled. The program was demonstrated to show that it was capable of taking many complex resources considerations into account and modeled them accurately.