This study applies the gravity trade model to assess South Africa-Angola trade potential in the agricultural sector. A step-by-step example of the model's empirical implementation is also provided. It is found that the gravity model, with foundations in the physical sciences, is a useful instrument for the analysis of bilateral trade flows. A panel data analysis is used to disentangle the time invariant country-specific effects and to capture the relationships between the relevant variables over time. The study also finds that the fixed effects model is to be preferred to the random effects gravity model. Furthermore, a number of variables, namely, size of the economies, the oil price and exchange rates added to the standard gravity equation, are found to be important determinants of bilateral trade flows. Overall, the simulation results indicate that there is a potential for trade in the agricultural sector between these two countries. / Thesis (M.Com. (Economics))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2008.

This study applies the gravity trade model to assess South Africa-Angola trade potential in the agricultural sector. A step-by-step example of the model's empirical implementation is also provided. It is found that the gravity model, with foundations in the physical sciences, is a useful instrument for the analysis of bilateral trade flows. A panel data analysis is used to disentangle the time invariant country-specific effects and to capture the relationships between the relevant variables over time. The study also finds that the fixed effects model is to be preferred to the random effects gravity model. Furthermore, a number of variables, namely, size of the economies, the oil price and exchange rates added to the standard gravity equation, are found to be important determinants of bilateral trade flows. Overall, the simulation results indicate that there is a potential for trade in the agricultural sector between these two countries. / Thesis (M.Com. (Economics))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2008.

Este trabalho tem como objetivo analisarse há relação de causalidade entre o preço de etanol e o preço do açúcar no mercado de alagoas utilizando a metodologia de Vetores Autoregressivos. A expansão da demanda do etanol no mundo é decorrente de uma preocupação cada vez mais crescente em substituir os combustíveis derivados do petróleo, na medida em que este constitui uma fonte energética não renovável. Outro fator que contribui para o aumento da demanda é a questão ambiental, uma vez que a maior utilização do etanol como combustível permitira uma redução dos gases causadores de efeito estufa. Aliado a esses fatores, a introdução dos veículos flex promoveu uma aumento do consumo de etanol nos períodos em que o preço deste combustível se mostra mais competitivo quando se compara com o preço da gasolina. Contudo o aumento da produção de etanol gerou uma mudança na relação entre os mercados de álcool e açúcar já que os dois são obtidos a partir da mesma matéria prima que é a cana de açúcar. Como resultado, foi encontrada uma relação de causalidade entre os preços do etanol e do açúcar em que o preço do açúcar afeta o preço do etanol, mas este não é capaz de afetar o preço do açúcar. Tal resultado aponta para um mercado de açúcar mais sólido e que é afetado por forças inerentes ao seu próprio mercado. No longo prazo, os preços do açúcar e do álcool sofrem aumento com um choque no preço do petróleo, sugerindo uma dependência das oscilações dessa commodity internacional. Portanto, a criação do novo mercado de bicombustível demonstrou ser um fenômeno recente e que consequentemente não afeta significativamente o mercado de açúcar. / This study aims to examine whether there is causal relationship between the price of ethanol and sugar prices in the Alagoas market using the methodology of Vector Autoregressive. The expansion of ethanol demand in the world is due to an increasingly growing concern in replacing petroleum-based fuels because this is not a renewable energy source. Another factor that contributes to the increased demand is the environmental issue, since the increased use of ethanol as fuel would allow a reduction of greenhouse gases. Besides these factors, the introduction of flex-fuel vehicles promoted an increased consumption of ethanol in periods when the price of this fuel is more competitive when compared to the price of gasoline. However the increase of ethanol production has generated a change in the relationship between ethanol and sugar markets since the two are taken from the same raw material is sugarcane. As a result, we found a causal relationship between the prices of ethanol and sugar where the price of sugar affects the price of ethanol, but the alcohol can not affect the price of sugar. This result points to a more solid sugar market that is affected by forces inherent in their own market. In the long run, prices of sugar and alcohol are suffering with an increase in oil price shock, suggesting a dependence on fluctuations of international commodity. Therefore, the creation of new biofuel market has proved to be a recent phenomenon and therefore does not significantly affect the market for sugar.

Este trabalho tem como objetivo analisarse há relação de causalidade entre o preço de etanol e o preço do açúcar no mercado de alagoas utilizando a metodologia de Vetores Autoregressivos. A expansão da demanda do etanol no mundo é decorrente de uma preocupação cada vez mais crescente em substituir os combustíveis derivados do petróleo, na medida em que este constitui uma fonte energética não renovável. Outro fator que contribui para o aumento da demanda é a questão ambiental, uma vez que a maior utilização do etanol como combustível permitira uma redução dos gases causadores de efeito estufa. Aliado a esses fatores, a introdução dos veículos flex promoveu uma aumento do consumo de etanol nos períodos em que o preço deste combustível se mostra mais competitivo quando se compara com o preço da gasolina. Contudo o aumento da produção de etanol gerou uma mudança na relação entre os mercados de álcool e açúcar já que os dois são obtidos a partir da mesma matéria prima que é a cana de açúcar. Como resultado, foi encontrada uma relação de causalidade entre os preços do etanol e do açúcar em que o preço do açúcar afeta o preço do etanol, mas este não é capaz de afetar o preço do açúcar. Tal resultado aponta para um mercado de açúcar mais sólido e que é afetado por forças inerentes ao seu próprio mercado. No longo prazo, os preços do açúcar e do álcool sofrem aumento com um choque no preço do petróleo, sugerindo uma dependência das oscilações dessa commodity internacional. Portanto, a criação do novo mercado de bicombustível demonstrou ser um fenômeno recente e que consequentemente não afeta significativamente o mercado de açúcar. / This study aims to examine whether there is causal relationship between the price of ethanol and sugar prices in the Alagoas market using the methodology of Vector Autoregressive. The expansion of ethanol demand in the world is due to an increasingly growing concern in replacing petroleum-based fuels because this is not a renewable energy source. Another factor that contributes to the increased demand is the environmental issue, since the increased use of ethanol as fuel would allow a reduction of greenhouse gases. Besides these factors, the introduction of flex-fuel vehicles promoted an increased consumption of ethanol in periods when the price of this fuel is more competitive when compared to the price of gasoline. However the increase of ethanol production has generated a change in the relationship between ethanol and sugar markets since the two are taken from the same raw material is sugarcane. As a result, we found a causal relationship between the prices of ethanol and sugar where the price of sugar affects the price of ethanol, but the alcohol can not affect the price of sugar. This result points to a more solid sugar market that is affected by forces inherent in their own market. In the long run, prices of sugar and alcohol are suffering with an increase in oil price shock, suggesting a dependence on fluctuations of international commodity. Therefore, the creation of new biofuel market has proved to be a recent phenomenon and therefore does not significantly affect the market for sugar.

Este trabalho tem como objetivo analisarse há relação de causalidade entre o preço de etanol e o preço do açúcar no mercado de alagoas utilizando a metodologia de Vetores Autoregressivos. A expansão da demanda do etanol no mundo é decorrente de uma preocupação cada vez mais crescente em substituir os combustíveis derivados do petróleo, na medida em que este constitui uma fonte energética não renovável. Outro fator que contribui para o aumento da demanda é a questão ambiental, uma vez que a maior utilização do etanol como combustível permitira uma redução dos gases causadores de efeito estufa. Aliado a esses fatores, a introdução dos veículos flex promoveu uma aumento do consumo de etanol nos períodos em que o preço deste combustível se mostra mais competitivo quando se compara com o preço da gasolina. Contudo o aumento da produção de etanol gerou uma mudança na relação entre os mercados de álcool e açúcar já que os dois são obtidos a partir da mesma matéria prima que é a cana de açúcar. Como resultado, foi encontrada uma relação de causalidade entre os preços do etanol e do açúcar em que o preço do açúcar afeta o preço do etanol, mas este não é capaz de afetar o preço do açúcar. Tal resultado aponta para um mercado de açúcar mais sólido e que é afetado por forças inerentes ao seu próprio mercado. No longo prazo, os preços do açúcar e do álcool sofrem aumento com um choque no preço do petróleo, sugerindo uma dependência das oscilações dessa commodity internacional. Portanto, a criação do novo mercado de bicombustível demonstrou ser um fenômeno recente e que consequentemente não afeta significativamente o mercado de açúcar. / This study aims to examine whether there is causal relationship between the price of ethanol and sugar prices in the Alagoas market using the methodology of Vector Autoregressive. The expansion of ethanol demand in the world is due to an increasingly growing concern in replacing petroleum-based fuels because this is not a renewable energy source. Another factor that contributes to the increased demand is the environmental issue, since the increased use of ethanol as fuel would allow a reduction of greenhouse gases. Besides these factors, the introduction of flex-fuel vehicles promoted an increased consumption of ethanol in periods when the price of this fuel is more competitive when compared to the price of gasoline. However the increase of ethanol production has generated a change in the relationship between ethanol and sugar markets since the two are taken from the same raw material is sugarcane. As a result, we found a causal relationship between the prices of ethanol and sugar where the price of sugar affects the price of ethanol, but the alcohol can not affect the price of sugar. This result points to a more solid sugar market that is affected by forces inherent in their own market. In the long run, prices of sugar and alcohol are suffering with an increase in oil price shock, suggesting a dependence on fluctuations of international commodity. Therefore, the creation of new biofuel market has proved to be a recent phenomenon and therefore does not significantly affect the market for sugar.

The aim of this thesis is to investigate stock price sensitivity of 50 European companies to oil price changes using panel data analysis. Besides that, this Thesis compares sensitivities of different groups of companies. The first comparison is between Eastern and Western European companies. The second comparison is between different segments of the oil industry. Specifically, Upstream, Midstream, Downstream segment and integrated oil companies. The main finding of this thesis is that there is a positive dependence between oil price and stock prices of European oil companies. Moreover, there is a significant difference between sensitivity of Upstream and integrated companies. However, no significant difference in sensitivity of western and eastern European comapnies was found.

Conflict in Libya was the most serious of a series of uprising at the beginning of the year 2011 in the Middle East and North Africa. Following the current situation of world production and consumption of oil, the work focuses on the reaction of oil markets to the conflict and estimates the future development of the oil industry. The aim is to analyze how much the Libyan Civil War influences the development of oil prices on world markets. The second main point of this work is to determine to what extent the current situation in the country could damage the Libyan economy. Much of the information comes from documents and statistics of the U. S. Energy Information Administration, the International Energy Agency and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

In this study, the authors examined the relationship between crude oil price and the Swedish and Norwegian stock markets. Using linear regression models the authors found that the Swedish stock market and Norwegian stock market both have a positive relation with crude oil price. This supports the hypothesis that crude oil price has a positive impact on Norwegian stock market, since Norway is an oil exporting country. However, this result contradicts a hypothesis of a negative relationship for an oil importing country like Sweden. The authors also looked into the relationship between exchange rates (Swedish krona and Norwegian krone) and oil price, which reveals that oil price is significantly negatively correlated with Swedish krona and Norwegian Krone. The study contributes with evidence from underexplored regions of the world.

The natural resource curse is a widely debated phenomenon usually proposing a connection between large extractive resource wealth and substandard economic performance. This paper concerns the connection between large extractive resource wealth and the potential for its effects on long term political stability. Using Venezuela as a case study, this paper delves into the political history of Venezuela, plagued by endemic political instability, and attempts to test the political aspect of the resource curse, analysing history with a focus on the oil industry. The conclusion is that there is a clear connection between oil price volatility and political instability, but only evident starting in the latter half of the 20th -century. Further research into specific regimes, eras, as well as comparative analyses between Venezuela and other states is required to provide additional answers in regard to specific causes for political instability in the early 20th -century and the pre-oil period.

This thesis analyses the extent to which a boom in a particular export commodity sector (i.e., oil) affects relative price of non-tradable goods against tradable goods, the real exchange rate and competitiveness in the rest of the economy: This problem has been analysed in the early stage by (Corden and Neary 1982) with the so-called ‘Dutch-disease’. As a result, booming sector (oil Sector) the country’s currency appreciates, thereby reducing the competitiveness of the country’s traditional export sector in international market. This thesis examines whether Dutch Disease is present in Iraq in the light of having not study about Dutch Disease phenomena. It evaluates the impact of growing oil revenues on non-oil sectors of the Iraqi economy. It produces some empirical evidence for the explanation non-tradable goods and contraction of tradable goods sector due to booming oil sector and appreciation real exchange rate and made tradable goods sector become uncompetitive for export. The main findings form this thesis that the Iraqi economy was subject to have the Dutch disease phenomena during the boom. Some of the indications of the disease, remarkably the increase of relative prices, the real exchange rate appreciation, contraction tradable goods sector and expansion of nontraded goods output were applicable. The study uses annual time series data sourced from home and international agencies from 1970 to 2013. Due to problem with endogeneity, the data are analysed through the use of two stages least square. Finally, the thesis discusses briefly some policy measures that will help avoid the issue of appreciation real exchange rate and changing the structure of economy out of tradable goods to non-tradable goods sector.