Graduation date: 1963

The influence of mesoscale ocean eddies on near-surface ocean temperature, surface stress and phytoplankton communities is investigated by collocating numerous satellite measurements along with vertical profiles of oceanic temperature and salinity to the interiors of eddies identified and tracked in altimetric sea surface height maps. The surface currents associated with mesoscale ocean eddies impart a curl of the surface stress from the relative motion between surface air and water. This stress curl has a polarity opposite that of the vorticity of the eddy, thus attenuating the eddies by generating Ekman upwelling in the cores of anticyclones and downwelling in the cores of cyclones. Ekman pumping also arises from eddy-induced spatial variability of the sea surface temperature (SST) field that generates a wind stress curl in regions of crosswind SST gradients through a response of surface winds to SST-induced surface heating variations. SST-induced Ekman pumping is shown to be secondary to surface current-induced pumping in most regions of the World Ocean. Eddy-induced Ekman pumping resulting from the combination of surface current effects and air-sea interaction represents an order 1 perturbation of the background, basin-scale Ekman pumping velocities from the large-scale wind fields. In western boundary currents and equatorward-flowing eastern boundary currents, cyclonic eddies preferentially entrain water from the coastal side of the boundary current, which primes the interiors of cyclones to have phytoplankton concentrations that are elevated relative to the background. In contrast, anticyclones formed in these regions contain locally depressed phytoplankton concentrations from the offshore waters. While eddy pumping from vertical displacements of isopycnals during eddy formation can affect the biology in the interiors of cyclones during the transient stage of their development, this ecosystem response cannot be sustained because of the persistent eddy-induced Ekman downwelling throughout the rest of the eddy lifetimes. Likewise, the persistent eddy-induced Ekman upwelling in anticyclones is of little benefit because of their low phytoplankton content at the time of formation. A definitive response to eddy pumping is therefore difficult to detect from satellite observations alone. Eddies formed in regions where anticyclones preferentially entrain water with elevated phytoplankton concentrations, such as the South Indian Ocean, or in some mid-ocean gyre regions where small-amplitude eddies form (e.g., the oligotrophic South Pacific), an ecosystem response to eddy-induced Ekman pumping is observed. Conversely, cyclones in these regions entrain water that is low in chlorophyll, resulting in negative chlorophyll anomalies that are sustained by Ekman downwelling throughout the eddy lifetimes. The phytoplankton response to eddy-induced Ekman upwelling in anticyclones is seasonal, occurring only during the winter. It is proposed that the mechanism for the lack of ecosystem response to eddy-induced Ekman upwelling during the summer is the decoupling of the mixed layer from the nutricline. The observations presented in this dissertation provide a baseline from which coupled ocean circulation and biogeochemical models can be assessed. If coupled models are able to reproduce correctly the observed influence of mesoscale eddies on photoautotrophic communities, further insight into the mechanisms for this variability could be gained from the model output using the methodologies developed in this dissertation together with investigation of subsurface variability in the models below the depth to which chlorophyll can be inferred from the satellite observations. / Graduation date: 2013

Regional patterns in tropospheric and sea surface temperature (SST) trends are examined for the period 1979 ??01 using MSU, NCEP-NCAR, ECMWF ERA-40 reanalyses, NOAA OI SST, and the CARDS radiosonde data set. Trends are estimated using a nonparametric Mann-Kendall approach. Substantial regional variability in temperature trends is seen in all of these data sets, with the magnitude of the variability (including substantial regions with cooling trends) far exceeding the average warming trend. The global analyses from MSU and the NCAR/NCEP and ECMWF reanalyses are used to identify sampling problems in using the radiosonde network to infer global trends. Analysis of the trends in tropospheric temperature concurrent with trends in SST shows regions where the signs disagree for both surface cooling and warming. Interpretation of these differing trends using the reanalyses suggest that the models used for the reanalyses are simulating the necessary dynamics/thermodynamics thatcould lead to a tropospheric cooling in contrast to a surface warming (and vice versa).

A simple correlation analysis was used to investigate the linear relationships between sea surface temperature (SST) and monthly flow of Ganges and Brahmaputra at the borders of Bangladesh and India using approximately 50 years of river discharge data. Strong correlations were found between the equatorial Pacific SST and boreal summer Ganges discharge from three-month lag to two-month lead times. The El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) explains Ganges flow variance exceeding 0.95 significance level using both the Nino 3.4 SST correlation and the composites made for El Nio (La Nina) periods. The May SST of the southwest Pacific Ocean to the east of Australia continent has a strong correlation (>0.6) with early summer Ganges discharges. Using a lag correlation analysis of Ganges discharge and SST, we found a steady and continuous development in the Nino 3.4 SST relationship, and a strong correlation with the southwest Pacific SST which is most pronounced three-four months prior to the onset of Asian summer monsoon. These relationships mean that at least 25% of the interannual summer Ganges River discharge variability can be explained by antecedent equatorial and southwest Pacific SST. It provides a possible statistical method for linear forecasting two or three months in advance. The Brahmaputra River discharge, on the other hand, shows weak relationships with tropical SST variability except for the Bay of Bengal and the higher northern latitudes of the Pacific.

This thesis investigates possible dynamical pathways through which variability in the extra-tropical Pacific Ocean influences decadal fluctuations of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST). Specifically, we examine the hypothesis that low-frequency changes in the Pacific‟s meridional subtropical cells (STCs), which transport subsurface water masses equatorward from the extra-tropical into the tropical Pacific upwelling system, modulate decadal variations of the equatorial SST. The relationship between the STCs and equatorial Pacific SST anomalies is explored statistically using the monthly hindcast output from the Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) for the Earth Simulator (OFES). We find that decadal variability of the subsurface heat transport of the southern branch of the STC is more closely correlated (R = -0.74) with eastern equatorial SST anomalies on timescales longer than 8 years. The northern branch of the STC is overall not well correlated with equatorial SSTa; however, we find that in the period before the 1976 climate shift, the northern cell is more strongly and significantly correlated with equatorial SSTa (R = -0.89, >99%), while the southern cell is not (R = -0.32). The physical significance of these findings remain unclear and requires isolating mechanisms that could lead to an asymmetry in the role of the northern and southern STC in modulating eastern equatorial SSTa during different states of the Pacific climate. This will be a critical step to attribute physical significance to the statistical changes observed before and after the 1976 climate shift.

Previous correlations have been established between the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and both the tropical north Atlantic sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and precipitation anomalies in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states. Both bivariate and partial correlations are used over a five and six-month lag to assess the relevance the tropical Atlantic SSTs have in eastern United States precipitation patterns. Significant correlations between Pacific SSTs and precipitation were found during winter months which agree with previous literature. The relationship with the Atlantic SSTs was less robust, as some significant values were established over three seasons, excluding winter. Only the spring season showed a partial explanation of the Atlantic SST's role in the precipitation's response to Pacific SSTs. These relationships did not occur during the times when significant correlations were made between Pacific SSTs and precipitation. / Department of Geography

Typescript. / Bibliography: leaves 131-133. / xi, 133 l charts, graphs, maps, tables

As a global climate phenomenon, the El Ni??o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) involves the coupling of the ocean and the atmosphere. Most climate prediction studies have, by far, only investigated the teleconnections between global climatic anomalies and the ???surface??? predictors of ENSO. The prediction models resulting from these studies have generally suffered from inadequate, if not the lack of, skill across the so-called boreal ???spring barrier???. This is illustrated in the first part of this thesis where the applicability of the SOI phase for long-lead rainfall projections in Australia is discussed. With the increasing availability of subsurface ocean temperature data, the characteristics of the Pacific Ocean???s heat content and its role in ENSO are now better understood. The second part of this thesis investigated the predictability of ENSO using the thermocline as a predictor. While the persistence and SST-based ENSO hindcasts dropped in skill across the spring barrier, the thermocline-based hindcasts remained skillful even up to a lag of eighteen months. Continuing on the favorable results of ENSO prediction, the third part of this thesis extended the use of the thermocline in the prediction of Australia???s rainfall and streamflow. When compared to models that use ???surface??? predictors, the model that incorporated thermocline information resulted in more skillful projections of rainfall and streamflow especially at long lead-times. More importantly, significant increases in skill of autumn and winter projections demonstrate the ability of the subsurface ocean to retain some climatic memory across the predictability barrier. This resilience can be attributed to the high persistence of the ocean heat content during the first half of the year. Based on weighting, the model averaging exercise also affirmed the superiority of the ???subsurface??? model over the ???surface??? models in terms of streamflow projections. The encouraging findings of this study could have far-reaching implications not only to the science of ENSO prediction but also to the more pragmatic realm of hydrologic forecasting. What this study has demonstrated is an alternative predictor that is suitable for the long range forecasting of ENSO, rainfall and streamflow. With better hydrologic forecasting comes significant improvement in the management of reservoirs which eventually leads to an increase in the reliability and sufficiency of water supply provision.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Flinders University, School of Chemistry, Physics & Earth Sciences. / Typescript bound. Includes bibliographical references: (leaves xx) Also available online.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Washington, 1997. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references (p. 182-199).