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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

Cyclical consumption and the aggregate stock market: Evidence from the Nordic countries

Huttunen, Sasu, Looije, Govert January 2021 (has links)
Researchers have dedicated considerable work to explaining components to excess stock market returns. Recently, Atanasov et al. (2020) managed to explain some of this variance in the US stock markets with a cyclical consumption variable. We have applied their model into the Nordic countries and compared it to a second model containing additional control variables. From the analysis, we find that cyclical consumption is able to explain excess stock market returns across five different h-quarter ahead excess returns. However, results are not consistent across countries. The extended model improves the explanatory capabilities of the model only up to two-year ahead excess returns. The cyclical consumption measure is also able to predict excess returns better than an historical average model. The findings in this paper are robust to out-of-sample predictability analysis and to a different measure of consumption and returns.

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