<p><p><strong>Sammanfattning.</strong></p><p> </p><p>Östersjön är ett hav som även i av människans verksamhet opåverkat tillstånd drabbas av återkommande algblomningar. Sedan människan börjat påverka havet har frekvensen av algblomningarna ökat. Den mänskliga påverkan består huvudsakligen i utsläpp av närsalter såsom fosfor och kväve till Östersjöns vatten men även av vår klimatpåverkan.</p><p> </p><p>Problemen med algblomningarna är såväl biologiska, ekonomiska som estetiska. Biologiskt påverkar det balansen i ekosystemet genom att bakterierna efter blomningen bryts ner. Till denna process åtgår syre vilket ofta är en bristvara i Östersjön på grund av havets begränsade vattenutbyte med Atlanten. Kronisk syrebrist och bildande av giftigt svavelväte på stora delar av Östersjöns djupare bottnar blir konsekvensen. Denna syrebrist förhindrar effektivt allt liv ovanför bakterienivå i dessa områden. Detta får även en ekonomisk konsekvens eftersom torsken är beroende av dessa djupområden för sin reproduktion. En annan ekonomisk konsekvens hänger ihop med den estetiska effekten. Algblomningarna med sina sjok av grumligt illaluktande gulgrönt vatten inträder oftast under tursitsäsongen varför även denna industri drabbas.</p><p> </p><p>Uppsatsen analyserar trender och framtidsprognoser för tre indikatorer som påverkar frekvensen av algblomningarna i Östersjön. De tre indikatorerna är; utsläpp av kväve och fosfor, temperatur-förändringar och förändringar beträffande antalet soltimmar över Östersjön. Algblomningarna, som egentligen är blomningar av cyanobakterier, styrs av dessa tre parameterar. Uppsatsens frågeställning är hurvida problemet kommer att förvärras i framtiden eller om vår kunskap och insikt i problemet burit och kommer att bära frukt i form av effektiva åtgärder mot eutrofieringen med minskad frekvens av algblomningar som följd?</p><p> </p><p>Uppsatsens analys visar att de tre indikatorerna pekar åt lite olika håll. Klimatet kommer med all sannolikhet fortsätta bli varmare varför denna indikator tenderar verka förstärkande i framtiden. Den andra indikatorn, antalet soltimmar, kommer enligt modeller endast att öka svagt. Detta innebär att även denna indikator kommer förstärka problematiken i framtiden, om än svagt. Den tredje indikatorn, utsläppen av närsalter, pekar i olika riktningar. Trenden för den vattenburna andelen av tillskotten till Östersjön pekar på en minskning i framtiden. Det luftburna tillskottet kommer däremot troligen att öka i framtiden. Då den vattenburna delen är den största är det troligt att tillskottet av närsalter till Östersjön kommer minska något framöver. Denna indikator verkar således i motsatt riktning kontra de två förstnämnda. Uppsatsens slutsats förutspår en svagt förbättrad situation för Östersjön ur ett eutrofieringsperspektiv. Inte minst den insikt som i dag finns hos politiker och allmänhet stödjer denna slutsats. De positiva förändringarna kommer att gå långsamt men den negativa trenden torde vara bruten.</p></p>

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Université de Paris. / Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (M.Sc.) - Carleton University, 2009. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 134-146). Also available in electronic format on the Internet.

Thesis (M.A.)--Si li Zhongguo wen hua xue yuan. / Cover title. Mimeo. copy. Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (M.S.)--Lehigh University, 2009. / Adviser: Joan M. Ramage.

Thesis (M.A.)--University of Hong Kong, 1961. / Type-written copy. Includes bibliographical references (p. 103-115). Also available on microfilm.

The long term patterns of fire-climate interactions and forest recovery processes in subalpine forests are poorly understood. This study used a suite of dendrochronological techniques to identify tree growth-climate relationships, assess the interactions of fire with interannual climate variability, and reconstruct summer temperature in subalpine forests of the Selway-Bitterroot Wilderness Area on the border of Idaho and Montana, USA. Comparison of ring-width chronologies from whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis Engelm.) and subalpine larch (Larix lyallii Parl.) with modern climate data indicated that summer temperatures were most limiting to growth in these conifers. Warm summers were generally conducive to radial growth. However, the temporal stability of the climate-tree growth relationship weakens from the early to later periods of the record. Alterations to growing season length, possibly modified by snow pack, may be related to the reduction in climate-growth relationships. A 748-year reconstruction of average summer temperature was developed that explains ≈36% of the variance of the instrumental record. Positive values of the coefficient of efficiency and reduction of error verification statistics indicated that the reconstruction was of good quality. Warm and cool periods in the reconstruction include a warm decade around the 1650s and prolonged cooling around 1700. Peaks in variance in reconstructed average summer temperature occurred at 87, 15, and 2 years. More than 2000 fire scar and age structure samples were used to evaluate fire-climate relationships. Comparison of widespread fire events to climate variables indicated dry conditions both during the fire year and one year before a fire. Multiple spatial patterns of drought and El Nino were related to widespread fire occurrence. Forest recovery following fires generally proceeds from lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia Dougl.) toward spruce-fir forests (Picea engelmannii Parry- Abies lasiocarpa (Hook) Nutt.). Two successional pathways occur, one beginning with an initial lodgepole pine stage, the other a spruce-fir stage. Initial composition was related to the presence of overstory lodgepole pine at the time of fire occurrence as well as the intervals between successive fires. Collectively, these results suggest a strong multi-year drought linkage between climate and fire, and dependence on fire intervals for structuring forest communities.

Advances in the understanding of the nature and causes of multi-decadal precipitation and temperature variability in the western United States could assist stakeholder groups in their management and distribution of resources and personnel. The three studies undertaken in this dissertation address this issue of multi-decadal climate variability and its potential implications for user groups. In the first study, the relationship between ENSO conditions and winter precipitation in the Western U.S. is examined within the context of decadal-scale variability, as represented by phasing of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Spatial inconsistencies in the ENSO-precipitation relationship, commensurate with PDO phase shifts, are identified, taking the form of a 'dipole' signature across the Western U.S. This finding has implications for the knowledge of uncertainty of ENSO teleconnections, and may prove meaningful for users of climate information throughout the region. In the second study, the reliability of fall season ENSO conditions as a predictor of Western U.S. winter circulation anomalies is shown to vary depending on the phase of the PDO pattern. During the PDO cold phase of 1948-1976, fall season El Nino events tended not to precede the expected winter troughing pattern over the West, while during the PDO warm phase of 1977-1998, fall season El Nino conditions were a more reliable predictor of winter circulation anomalies over the Western U.S. Fall season La Nina conditions during both the cold and warm phases of the PDO generally correlated well with the occurrence of wintertime high-pressure ridging centered off the Pacific coast. These results highlight uncertainty on multi-decadal time scales surrounding the use of ENSO conditions as a seasonal climate forecast tool. In the third study, the spatio-temporal variability of spring season minimum temperatures in the western United States is examined as a function of multi-decadal Pacific climate variability for the period 1925--1994. Variations in minimum temperature patterns, as determined by a principal components-based regionalization analysis, indicate a significant statistical relationship between March and April minimum temperatures and an index of the PDO. These results have implications for an improved understanding of multi-decadal climate dynamics across the West, including growing season length and intensity.

Forest fire policies are changing. Managers now face conflicting imperatives to re-establish pre-suppression fire regimes, while simultaneously preventing resource destruction. They must, therefore, understand the spatial patterns of fires. Geographers can facilitate this understanding by developing new techniques for mapping fire behavior. This dissertation develops such techniques for mapping recent fires and using these maps to calibrate models of potential fire hazards. In so doing, it features techniques that strive to address the inherent complexity of modeling the combinations of variables found in most ecological systems. Image processing techniques were used to stratify the elements of terrain, slope, elevation, and aspect. These stratification images were used to assure sample placement considered the role of terrain in fire behavior. Examination of multiple stratification images indicated samples were placed representatively across a controlled range of scales. The incorporation of terrain data also improved preliminary fire hazard classification accuracy by 40%, compared with remotely sensed data alone. A Kauth-Thomas transformation (KT) of pre-fire and post-fire Thematic Mapper (TM) remotely sensed data produced brightness, greenness, and wetness images. Image subtraction indicated fire induced change in brightness, greenness, and wetness. Field data guided a fuzzy classification of these change images. Because fuzzy classification can characterize a continuum of a phenomena where discrete classification may produce artificial borders, fuzzy classification was found to offer a range of fire severity information unavailable with discrete classification. These mapped fire patterns were used to calibrate a model of fire hazards for the entire mountain range. Pre-fire TM, and a digital elevation model produced a set of co-registered images. Training statistics were developed from 30 polygons associated with the previously mapped fire severity. Fuzzy classifications of potential burn patterns were produced from these images. Observed field data values were displayed over the hazard imagery to indicate the effectiveness of the model. Areas that burned without suppression during maximum fire severity are predicted best. Areas with widely spaced trees and grassy understory appear to be misrepresented, perhaps as a consequence of inaccuracies in the initial fire mapping.

Tree rings can be reliable recorders of past weather and climate variations. Tree rings from mountain regions can be linked to upper air atmospheric sounding observations and large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. A "synoptic dendroclimatology" approach is used to define the relationship between tree rings and a specific upper air anomaly feature that affects climate in the western US. I have also reconstructed this anomaly feature using both regression and fuzzy logic approaches. Correlation analysis between 500 mb geopotential heights and tree rings at a site near Eagle, Colorado reveals an important anomaly centered over the western US. This center can be viewed as a circulation anomaly center index (CACI) that can quantitatively represent the relationship between atmospheric circulation and tree growth variations. To reconstruct this index from tree rings, I used both a multiple linear regression (MLR) and a fuzzy-rule-based (FRB) model. The fuzzy-rule-based model provides a simple structural approach to capture nonlinear relationships between tree rings and circulation. The reconstructing capability of both models is validated directly from an independent data set. Results show that the fuzzy-rule-based model performs better in terms of calibration and verification statistics than the multiple linear regression model. The reconstructed anomaly index can provide a long-term temporal context for evaluation of circulation variability and how it is linked to both climate and tree rings.