With robo-advisors and regulation eventually changing the market conditions of thefinancial advisory industry, traditional advisors will have to adapt to a new world of asset management. Thus, it will be of interest to traditional advisors to further explore the topic of how to automatically evaluate soft aspects such as client preferences and behavior, and transform it into portfolio allocations while retaining stringency and high quality in the process. In this thesis, we show how client preferences and behavioral aspects can be translated into quantitative parameters, suitable for an asset allocation model based on prospect theory. A risk profiler, a type of questionnaire, is found to be an appropriate tool to use in this process. Further, we show that the impact of the parameters on the resulting portfolio allocations is consistent with prospect theory and the preferences of the investor. Finally, we conclude that the optimized portfolio allocation generated by the model suit the investor's preferences. / Allteftersom robotrådgivning och regleringar förändrar marknadsvillkoren för finansiellrådgivning kommer traditionella aktörer behöva anpassa sig till helt nya förutsättningar. Därmed är det av intresse för traditionella rådgivare att ytterligare undersöka hur man automatiskt kan utvärdera mjuka faktorer, såsom kunders preferenser och beteende, och omvandla dem till portföljallokeringar samtidigt som man bibehåller stringens och hög kvalitet i processen. I denna avhandling visar vi hur kundpreferenser och beteendemässiga aspekter kan översättas till kvantitativa parametrar för en allokeringsmodell baserad på prospektteori. En riskprofilerare, en typ av frågeformulär, visar sig vara ett bra verktyg att använda i processen. Vidare visas att parametrarnas effekt på de resulterande portföljerna är förenliga med prospektteori och investerarens preferenser. Slutligen drar vi slutsatsen att den optimerade allokeringen passar investerarens preferenser.

Research has indicated a strong interest in knowing who is being represented and how information is being represented in the communication about childhood immunization. This study uses a two-part analysis to look at source representation and framing in childhood immunization communication. A quantitative analysis of articles from the New York Times and USA Today were examined for their source representation, their use of fear appeals, through the Extended Parallel Processing Model (EPPM), and the use of frames, through the application of Prospect Theory. A qualitative semiotic analysis was conducted on 36 images that appeared on www.yahoo.com and www.google.com to find common themes for who is being represented and how information is being portrayed through the images. Results found a high prevalence of representation from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, other governmental agencies and views from health/medical professionals in both the articles and images.

No description available.

機構投資者在現今全球的金融市場中佔有舉足輕重的地位，但是在財務理論的領域裡，他們卻是被極度忽略的一群。本文的第一個部分（見第二章）建構在傳統的期望效用理論之下，進而推導出機構投資者的最適動態資產配置模型。研究發現機構投資者的最適動態資產配置乃是由標竿避險元素與跨期-規模避險元素所共同組成。標竿避險元素述說了機構投資者跟隨標竿投資組合的現象，而跨期-規模避險元素除了為資產配置迷思提供了一個可能的解決之道外，更指出機構投資者會隨著所管理的資產增加而趨於保守。再者，近年來傳統的期望效用理論履遭學者們的質疑，許多實證結果均顯示展望理論更能貼切描述人們的行為模式。本文的第二個部分（見第三章）假設機構投資者的行為模式符合展望理論的公理與假說，進而推導出機構投資者的動態資產配置模型。研究發現當機構投資人處於獲利的狀態之下時，其最適動態資產配置和第二章所得到的結果完全相同，但是，當機構投資人處於損失的狀態下時，他會變得比較積極，持有的風險性資產會大於處於獲利狀態之下時所做的決策。雖然行為財務學已行之有年，但是大家對於損失趨避係數對資產配置所造成的影響所卻知極為有限，本文在此提供了一個參考的模型。本研究發現，損失趨避係數對動態資產配置的影響力會被風險趨避係數、個別投資人對機構投資者績效的敏感度以及機構投資者本身所收取的管理費所抵消掉。此外，近年來金融市場巨幅震盪的現象履見不鮮，本文的最後一個部份（見第四章）假設機構投資者的行為模式符合展望理論的公理與假說，進而在跳躍模式下推導出機構投資者的動態資產配置模型。研究發現在跳躍模式下機構投資者的最適動態資產配置乃是由標竿避險元素、跨期-規模避險元素與跳躍避險元素所共同組成。這個新的元素－「跳躍避險元素」，用以描述機構投資者在面對 跳躍模式所帶來的不同衝擊時所產生的不同回應。本研究發現即使面對相同的投資環境，機構投資者仍然會因為本身所處的狀態不同而有不一樣的投資決策，這個結果迥異於傳統的理論模型，是一個相當有趣且值得進一步研究的議題。此外，本研究還發現損失趨避係數在不同的狀況之下會分別發揮不同的影響力，對損失趨避係數在財務理論上的意義提供了另一個新的視野。 / Institutional investors do matter in financial market, but most of the studies on institutional investors have not determined holdings of different assets by institutional investors. Institutional investors who receive payments and deposits from their customers but they are also subject to withdrawals from them. Compared with individual investors, institutional investors do bear the extra risk that evokes from individual investors. Appling dynamic programming approach, we derive the optimal dynamic asset allocation of institutional investors. In chapter 2, we find that the optimal dynamic asset allocation of the institutional investor with exponential utility function contains two components: the benchmark hedge component and the intertemporal-size hedge component. The benchmark hedge component indicates that the institutional investor takes care of the volatility of benchmark portfolio. The intertemporal-size hedge component provides a possible solution to asset allocation puzzle and depicts that the position of risky assets held by the institutional investor is inversively proportional with its total net managed assets. In chapter 3, we take operating cost into account and find that the optimal dynamic asset allocation of the institutional investor with revised value function will hold more risky assets when she is facing losses, and the sensitivity of loss aversion to dynamic asset allocation strategy is inversively proportional with the absolute risk aversion coefficient, the sensitivity of flow to performance, and the management fee charged by the institutional investor. In chapter 4, we consider both the operating cost and the risk of a sudden large shock to security price into account and find that the optimal dynamic asset allocation of the institutional investor has a further component than that in chapter 3. The further component is labeled "jumps hedge component". Besides, the optimal dynamic asset allocation is divided into four situations that figure the institutional investor with different status quo will make different investment decision. It is a very surprisingly result. Furthermore, we find a very interesting phenomenon that the loss aversion coefficient plays different roles in different situations.

Svensk bostadsmarknad har länge präglats av en snedvriden konkurrens med en markant fördel till Sveriges kommunala allmännyttiga bostadsaktiebolag jämte de privata bostadsaktiebolagen. I syfte att utjämna existerande sektoriella diskrepanser och skapa en konkurrensneutral marknad med jämlika villkor för privata respektive kommunala bostadsaktiebolag, infördes per den 1:a januari år 2011, Lag (2010:879) om allmännyttiga bostadsaktiebolag. Lagen innebär för de kommunala bostadsaktiebolagen ett avsteg från den tidigare självkostnadsprincipen mot ett i högre grad affärsmässig agerande enligt vinstdrivande syfte. Denna studie avser utifrån sambandet mellan risk och avkastning inom svenska bostadsaktiebolag, undersöka huruvida svenska kommunala allmännyttiga bostadsaktiebolag efter införandet av lagen uppvisar ett mer affärsmässigt agerande i termer om risk och avkastning på totalt kapital. Studiens teoretiska utgångspunkter tar huvudsakligen ansats i prospektteorin samt den förväntade nyttoteorin, vilka utgör två välrenommerade modeller i syfte att förklara beslutstagande under risk. Den förväntade nyttoteorin antar att individer är rationella nyttomaximerare och därefter agerar antingen riskaversivt, risksökande eller riskneutralt. Prospektteorin hävdar i motsats till den förväntade nyttoteorin att individen kan vara en kombination av riskaversiv, risksökande och riskneutral. Varav individen således inte alltid antas agera rationellt. Författarna har funnit flertalet tidigare forskare vilka genom perspektivet av den strategiska företagsledningen, bevisat stöd för prospektteorin som förklarande modell av beslutstagande under risk på företagsnivå, inom och mellan olika branscher. Därmed ställer författarna följande frågeställning: Uppvisar Sveriges kommunala allmännyttiga bostadsaktiebolag ett i högre grad affärsmässigt riskbeteende efter införandet av Lag (2010:879) om allmännyttiga bostadsaktiebolag? Utifrån sekundärdata insamlad via databasen Retriever Business har ett kvantitativt metodangrepp tillämpats i syfte att besvara studiens framställda hypoteser. Insamlad data består av de svenska bostadsaktiebolagens årliga avkastning på totalt kapital för tidsperioden 2006-2010 samt 2011-2014. Det empiriska materialet har vidare analyserats genom korstabeller, rangkorrelationer samt deskriptiv statistik. Resultatet visade att prospektteorin utgör ett bra alternativ som deskriptiv modell av beslutstagande under risk inom svenska bostadsaktiebolag. Enligt prospektteorin påvisades att svenska bostadsaktiebolags riskbeteende varierar beroende på bolagets branschallokering i förhållande till branschens genomsnittliga prestation, varav den strategiska företagsledningen inom svenska bostadsaktiebolag kan antas vara en sammanslagning av både risksökande och riskaversiva. Därmed motsäger resultatet den förväntade nyttoteorins antaganden om att individen alltid agerar rationellt. Vidare påvisade jämförelse av de kommunala bostadsaktiebolagens riskbeteende före och efter reformen att de kommunala bostadsaktiebolagens riskbeteende inte påverkats i större utsträckning, varför indikationer ges att allmännyttiga bostadsaktiebolag inte agerar i högre grad affärsmässigt efter Lag (2010:879) om allmännyttiga bostadsaktiebolag.

How can political science account for the decision of African states to strengthen their ties with China, often at the expense of other alliances and often in the face of economic risks? This thesis explores this question in the context of relations between Ethiopia and China, especially in the context of investments made by Chinese sovereign wealth funds in the Ethiopian economy. To begin to answer this question this thesis recasts the China-Africa debate to focus on African, i.e. Ethiopian, agency. The focus is on how Ethiopia's political leaders make foreign policy decisions and on the factors that shape their preferences. This focus reveals the influence of cognitive variables on their foreign policy decisions; the influence of their guiding ideology, 'revolutionary democracy,' is especially key. An analysis of Ethiopia's formal institutions demonstrates they are inadequate to explain the policy choices of Ethiopian leaders; they have been designed to reflect the concepts of revolutionary democracy. Using the language of prospect theory, a descriptive theory of decision-making under risk, this thesis contends that Ethiopian leaders select foreign policy options by weighing their possible outcomes as gains or losses relative to revolutionary democracy as their reference frame. Ethiopian leaders sanctioned China's finance of the Ethiopian Telecommunications Corporation despite the monopoly it gave to China and its impact on Ethiopia's debt. They formed a front company between Ethiopia and China's military industrial complexes despite its negative effects on economic development. They opened Ethiopia’s regions to Chinese capital although capital flows only to state-owned enterprises. Yet in each case, ideological objectives were advanced. This examination demonstrates how non-structural factors play a critical role in a bureaucratized state. Theoretical frameworks that account for these factors, like prospect theory, are therefore valuable to more robust understandings of Ethiopia, and Africa's, deepening relations with China.

Lean Startup Teori (LST) har kommit att växa i popularitet inom entreprenörskap världen över. LST är en teori som för startup- företag skall minska kostnader och tid samt för entreprenörer skapa en arbetsprocess som underlättar beslutsfattande. I denna studie har länkar mellan problematik inom beslutsfattande (overconfidence, prospektteori, gloriaeffekten samt escalation of commitment) och LST undersökts genom semistrukturerade intervjuer med entreprenörer i Sverige. Vidare har generella lärdomar från de olika fallen  undersökts för att belysa fördelar och svagheter inom LST. Då pionjärer inom LST hävdat att teorin lämpar sig inom alla  sektorer och branscher har även detta  påstående granskats. Studien fann att LST- processer motverkar de negativa effekterna associerade med overconfidence och  gloriaeffekten men kan inte hantera de  problem som introduceras i samband med prospektteori samt escalation of commitment. Vidare når studien slutsatsen att LST kräver en fit med varje enskilt startup - företag och fungerar bäst inom branscher och industrier som har låga inträdesbarriärer form av kapitalkrav. / Lean Startup theory (LST) has been growing in popularity in entrepreneurship worldwide. LST is a theory for startup companies to reduce costs and time, and for entrepreneurs to create a process that eases decision-making. In this study, links betweenproblems of decision making (overconfidence, prospect theory, the halo effect and escalation of commitment) and LST has been examined through semi-structured interviews with  entrepreneurs in Sweden. Furthermore, general lessons from the cases has been studied to illustrate advantages and  weaknesses of LST. As pioneers of LST argue that the theory is suitable for all  sectors and industries, this claim has also been examined. The study found that LST processes counteract the negative effects associated with overconfidence and the halo effect, but cannot handle the problems that areintroduced in conjunction with the  prospect theory and escalation of  commitment. Furthermore, the study reaches the conclusion that LST requires a fit with each startup company, and functions best in sectors and industries where the entry barrier of capital requirement is low.

[pt] Esta dissertação tem como objetivo testar o efeito disposição, que é a tendência dos investidores em vender os investimentos ganhadores mais rapidamente que os investimentos perdedores, através da análise das carteiras de todos os fundos brasileiros de investimentos em Ações, no perí­odo compreendido entre novembro de 2003 e março de 2008. Embora a análise do número de transações revele que os fundos de investimento estão sujeitos ao efeito disposição, diferentemente do mercado acionário americano, quando são analisados os volumes transacionados, não é possível identificar o efeito disposição, especialmente em relação aos fundos de varejo, os que apresentaram a maior tendência de realização de perdas em detrimento dos ganhos. / [en] The goal of this study is to test the disposition effect, the tendency of investors to sell winning investments too soon and hold losing investments too long, by analyzing all the Brazilian Equity Funds portfolios from november 2003 to march 2008. Although the analysis based on the number of trades shows the Equity Funds are subject to the disposition effect, unlike the American stock market, when the analysis is based on the trading volume, the disposition effect is not identified, mainly in the funds open to non-qualified investors, that showed the stronger tendency to realize the loses instead the gains.

This dissertation offers a new understanding about wartime decision making in the face of likely, but unintended, harm to foreign civilians. It empirically identifies conditions under which leaders in democratic nations are more or less likely to choose to attack a target when confronted with a dilemma between pursuing national security objectives and avoiding civilian casualties. An innovative targeting decision model was constructed that described both the theorized structure of the decisions inputs and the process by which these inputs are assembled into a choice. The model went beyond the normal target benefit and civilian casualty cost considerations of proportionality to also include the contextual input of prospect frame. Decision makers were expected to address the same benefit and cost differently depending on whether they were winning or losing the conflict. This was because the prospect frame would influence their risk attitudes, as predicted by prospect theory. This model was then tested via two decision-making experiments that used military officers and defense civilians as participants. Additionally, a statistical analysis of data collected from an extended period of the second Intifada was done to seek evidence that the model also applied in actual wartime decision making. All three tests supported portions of the targeting decision model. Higher target benefit and lower civilian casualty estimates increased support for the planned attack. Prospect frame influenced decisions in the cases where both target value and the civilian casualty estimates were high and the resulting dilemma was very difficult. In these situations, those told that their forces were losing the conflict were less sensitive to humanitarian harm and more likely to support the attack than when they were told their side was winning. Furthermore, the Intifada data analysis of attacks approved by Israeli officials against Palestinians found this same effect of prospect frame held generally across all six years of observations.

Information goods pricing is an essential and emerging topic in the era of information economy. Myriad researchers have devoted considerable attention to developing and testing methods of information goods pricing. Nevertheless, in addition; there are still certain shortcomings as the challenges to be overcome. This study encompasses several unexplored concepts that have attracted research attention in other disciplines lately, such as collaborative prototyping, prospect theory, ERG theory, and maintenance from design, economic, psychological, and software engineering respectively. This study proposes a novel conceptual framework for information goods pricing and investigates the impact of three advantages: (1) provides collaborative process that could generate several prototypes via trial and error in pricing process, (2) deliberates the belief of consumer and producer by maximizing utility and profit, and (3) offers an appropriate service bundle by interacting with consumer and discovering the actual needs. Due to the unique cost structure and product characteristics of information goods, conventional pricing strategies are unfeasible, and a differential pricing strategy is crucial. Nevertheless, few models exist for pricing information goods in the e-service industry. This study proposes a novel collaborative pricing model in which customers are active participants in determining product prices and adopt prices and services that meet their changing needs. This study also shows that the collaborative pricing model generates an optimal bundle price at equilibrium with optimal profit and utility. Theoretical proofs and practical implications justify this pricing model, which is essential for future information goods pricing in information economy. Moreover, we apply iCare e-service delivery as an exemplar and scenario for our system. The objective of iCare is to provide quality e-services to the elderly people anywhere and anytime. The new pricing method will go beyond the current iCare e-service delivery process which furnishes personalized and collaborative bundles. iPrice system for pricing information goods fills the gap among previous literatures which only considers consumers or providers. Different from existing works, iPrice system is novel in integrating distinctively important concepts yielding more benefits to consumers and profits to more providers. Thus, iPrice also guides and provides a roadmap for information goods pricing for future research. / Information goods pricing is an essential and emerging topic in the era of information economy. Myriad researchers have devoted considerable attention to developing and testing methods of information goods pricing. Nevertheless, in addition; there are still certain shortcomings as the challenges to be overcome. This study encompasses several unexplored concepts that have attracted research attention in other disciplines lately, such as collaborative prototyping, prospect theory, ERG theory, and maintenance from design, economic, psychological, and software engineering respectively. This study proposes a novel conceptual framework for information goods pricing and investigates the impact of three advantages: (1) provides collaborative process that could generate several prototypes via trial and error in pricing process, (2) deliberates the belief of consumer and producer by maximizing utility and profit, and (3) offers an appropriate service bundle by interacting with consumer and discovering the actual needs. Due to the unique cost structure and product characteristics of information goods, conventional pricing strategies are unfeasible, and a differential pricing strategy is crucial. Nevertheless, few models exist for pricing information goods in the e-service industry. This study proposes a novel collaborative pricing model in which customers are active participants in determining product prices and adopt prices and services that meet their changing needs. This study also shows that the collaborative pricing model generates an optimal bundle price at equilibrium with optimal profit and utility. Theoretical proofs and practical implications justify this pricing model, which is essential for future information goods pricing in information economy. Moreover, we apply iCare e-service delivery as an exemplar and scenario for our system. The objective of iCare is to provide quality e-services to the elderly people anywhere and anytime. The new pricing method will go beyond the current iCare e-service delivery process which furnishes personalized and collaborative bundles. iPrice system for pricing information goods fills the gap among previous literatures which only considers consumers or providers. Different from existing works, iPrice system is novel in integrating distinctively important concepts yielding more benefits to consumers and profits to more providers. Thus, iPrice also guides and provides a roadmap for information goods pricing for future research.