Les fonctions administratives du gouvernement consistent à fournir les services publics, et à opérer la gestion publique et administrative. Cela nécessite l’utilisation en continu d’importantes sommes d’argent. Or, le principal revenu provenant de la collecte des impôts ne suffit pas pour opérer les missions et les nécessaires activités de l’Etat. C’est la raison pour laquelle, celui-ci doit emprunter davantage aux institutions financières intérieures et extérieures. En Thaïlande, le premier emprunt fut créé à l’ère du Roi Rama V. Et après la Révolution siamoise de 1932, le pays commença à emprunter de plus en plus aux institutions financières internationales et aux gouvernements étrangers pour son développement. Ce sont les crises économiques mondiales qui ont obligé divers pays dans le monde à contracter la dette publique et qui ont fait accroître ladite dette en Thaïlande. La notion de gestion de la dette publique devient alors indispensable et, à cet égard, plusieurs pays ont rendu des lois spéciales. En Thaïlande, la Loi portant sur la gestion de la dette publique B.E. 2548 (2005) et la désignation d’un mandataire constitue la loi fondamentale autorisant le gouvernement à contracter la dette publique, et à la gérer diversement -en raison d’un changement de situation- comme la dette contractée pour le développement économique et social, pour la restructuration de la dette et la mise en œuvre de la politique sur les transactions financières en vue de réduire le risque de dette publique, etc. / The government, as the administration, is responsible for public services, public affairs and administrative missions. It is, therefore, necessary to spend a great number of money consecutively. The main income of the government earned by the tax collection is not enough for its missions and the other necessary things. That’s why it had to loan more and more money from the domestic and international financial institutions. In Thailand, money has been loaned since the reign of King Rama V. After the Siamese Revolution of 1932, Thailand has incurred more public debt from the international financial institutions and foreign governments for country’s development. Public debt of Thailand and different countries has enormously increased while the notion of public debt management has also developed and the special acts on public debt management have been issued in many countries, because of the necessity of incurring public debt of several countries as well as economic crisis happened around the world. In Thailand, the Public Debt Management Act B.E. 2548 (2005) is considered as the principal law authorizing the government to incur and manage public debt in various ways for adapting to changing circumstances such as public debt incurred for social and economic development, for debt restructuring and financial transaction used for reducing the risk on public debt, etc.

Diploma thesis deals with analysis of income and expenditure aspect of state budget, deficit and public debt during 2008-2013 period, following Global financial and economic crisis and its induced governmental countermeasures. It then explains Goal oriented budgeting implementation process into Ministry of defense for the same period. The first chapter is dedicated to explaining theoretical background of budgeting process and enumeration of basic budgeting methods. The second part deals with state budget, concrete income and expense analysis including state deficit and public debt. The last chapter describes Goal oriented budgeting implementation process into Ministry of defense and evaluation of its basic problems. The conclusion of the thesis combines the acquired knowledge and sets conclusions and recommendations.

The global economic and financial crisis resulted in worldwide rising government debt levels, especially from 2008 to 2011. This thesis focuses on the sovereign debt crisis in the European Union and illustrates its member countries' debt levels in the period from 2001 to 2011. Two main indicators are considered: accumulated sovereign debt and its share in GDP. The following part outlines main measures taken in order to decrease general debt level in the European Union. Furthermore a selection of various presented proposals is introduced. The last part of the thesis speculatively evaluates all of these instruments and indicates possible imperfections.

[pt] Eu desenvolvo um modelo de ciclo de vida para avaliar a importância relativa de vários determinantes de londo prazo da taxa de juros. O modelo é uma generalização de Gertler (1999), incluindo imperfeições no mercado de crédito e heterogeneidade entre trabalhadores para capturar totalmente os efeitos da transição demográfica. O modelo é calibrado para a economia brasileira, incluindo perfis para os gastos do governo, gastos com previdência, dívida pública, crescimento da produtividade e variáveis demográficas. O modelo explica 71 porcento da variação total na taxa de juros brasileira entre 2000 e 2019. Fatores demográficos, especialmente aumentos na expectativa de vida, são os principais determinantes da queda nas taxas de juros reais. Essas forças são parcialmente compensadas por aumentos na dívida pública e nos gastos com previdência. Além disso, o arcabouço sugere que as taxas de juros reais continuarão caindo nos próximos 20 anos, atingindo o patamar de 1.5 porcento a.a., apesar de aumentos razoáveis na dívida pública. No entanto, possíveis efeitos de prêmios de risco e juros globais nas taxas de juros domésticas não são incluídos na análise. / [en] I develop a life cycle model to evaluate the relative importance of several long-term drivers of real interest rates. The model is a generalization of Gertler (1999), including credit market imperfections and heterogeneity among workers to fully capture the effects of the demographic transition. I calibrate the model to the Brazilian economy, feeding it with profiles for government spending, public debt, productivity growth and demographic variables. The model explains 71 percent of the overall change in real interest rates in Brazil between 2000 and 2019. Demographic factors, especially increases in life expectancy, are the key drivers of the fall in real interest rates. These forces are partially compensated by increases in public debt and social security spending. Moreover, the framework suggests that real interest rates will keep falling over the next 20, reaching a level of 1.5 percent despite reasonable increases in government debt. However, possible effects of risk premia and global rates on domestic interest rates are absent from the analysis.

It can be difficult for a sovereign debt manager to see the implications on expected costs and risk of a specific debt management strategy, a simulation model can therefore be a valuable tool. This study investigates how future economic data such as yield curves, foreign exchange rates and CPI can be simulated and how a portfolio optimization model can be used for a sovereign debt office that mainly uses financial derivatives to alter its strategy. The programming language R is used to develop a bespoke software for the Swedish National Debt Office, however, the method that is used can be useful for any debt manager. The model performs well when calculating risk implications of different strategies but debt managers that use this software to find optimal strategies must understand the model's limitations in calculating expected costs. The part of the code that simulates economic data is developed as a separate module and can thus be used for other studies, key parts of the code are available in the appendix of this paper. Foreign currency exposure is the factor that had the largest effect on both expected cost and risk, moreover, the model does not find any cost advantage of issuing inflation-protected debt. The opinions expressed in this thesis are the sole responsibility of the author and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Swedish National Debt Office. / Det kan vara svårt för en statsskuldsförvaltare att se påverkan på förväntade kostnader och risk när en skuldförvaltningsstrategi väljs, en simuleringsmodell kan därför vara ett värdefullt verktyg. Den här studien undersöker hur framtida ekonomiska data som räntekurvor, växelkurser ock KPI kan simuleras och hur en portföljoptimeringsmodell kan användas av ett skuldkontor som främst använder finansiella derivat för att ändra sin strategi. Programmeringsspråket R används för att utveckla en specifik mjukvara åt Riksgälden, men metoden som används kan vara användbar för andra skuldförvaltare. Modellen fungerar väl när den beräknar risk i olika portföljer men skuldförvaltare som använder modellen för att hitta optimala strategier måste förstå modellens begränsningar i att beräkna förväntade kostnader. Delen av koden som simulerar ekonomiska data utvecklas som en separat modul och kan därför användas för andra studier, de viktigaste delarna av koden finns som en bilaga till den här rapporten. Valutaexponering är den faktor som hade störst påverkan på både förväntade kostnader och risk och modellen hittar ingen kostnadsfördel med att ge ut inflationsskyddade lån. Åsikterna som uttrycks i den här uppsatsen är författarens egna ansvar och ska inte tolkas som att de reflekterar Riksgäldens syn.

Diese Dissertation umfasst drei Aufsätze zu Mindestlöhnen, zum Arbeitsangebot sowie zu öffentlichen Finanzen. Der Fokus liegt auf den Entwicklungen in Deutschland innerhalb der letzten zwei Jahrzehnte. Der erste Aufsatz untersucht Beschäftigungseffekte des Mindestlohns in einem Modell der Sucharbeitslosigkeit. Das Modell bildet Heterogenität auf Arbeitnehmer- und Arbeitgeberseite ab und schränkt die Richtung der Beschäftigungseffekte ein. Es erlaubt eine unterschiedliche Frequenz der Stellensuche von Beschäftigten und Arbeitslosen und modelliert die Rekrutierungsintensität der Unternehmen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Arbeitslosigkeit eine nicht-monotone Funktion des Mindestlohns ist. Die Auswirkungen von verschiedenen Mindestlöhnen unterscheiden sich stark nach Arbeitsmarktsegmenten. Der zweite Aufsatz befasst sich mit Trends im Arbeitsangebotsverhalten in Deutschland. Dazu werden diskrete Wahlmodelle des Arbeitsangebots für die Jahre von 1998 bis 2018 geschätzt. Die implizierten Arbeitsangebotselastizitäten haben in den letzten zwei Jahrzehnten zugenommen, insbesondere für Paare und für alleinstehende Männer. Eine Zerlegungsanalyse zeigt, dass Veränderungen in der Demografie nur eine geringe Rolle bei der Verschiebung der Eigen- und Kreuzlohnelastizitäten von Männern spielen, da der größte Teil der Veränderungen durch Präferenzen oder Arbeitsmarktrestriktionen bedingt ist. Bei Frauen hingegen spielen demografische Veränderungen eine größere Rolle für den Anstieg der Elastizitäten. Der dritte Aufsatz befasst sich mit den deutschen Staatsfinanzen sowie mit Reformen aufgrund der Finanzkrise 2008/2009. Der Aufsatz stellt die makroökonomische Situation und die Entwicklung der Krise in Deutschland dar und beleuchtet die Bedeutung für die öffentlichen Finanzen. In dem Aufsatz werden zudem die Verteilungswirkungen der Reformen im Steuer- und Transfersystem mithilfe von Mikrosimulationen untersucht. / This dissertation consists of three essays on the minimum wage, labour supply, and public finances. The selected essays focus on the German experience and developments over the last two decades. The first essay is an analysis of unemployment effects of the German minimum wage in an empirical equilibrium job search model. The estimated model with worker and firm heterogeneity does not restrict the sign of employment effects a priori; it allows for different job offer arrival rates for the employed and the unemployed and lets firms optimally choose their recruiting intensity. Results show that unemployment is a non-monotonic function of the minimum wage level, and effects differ strongly by labour market segment. The second essay is on the topic of labour supply elasticities in Germany. In order to analyse recent trends in labour supply in Germany, a static discrete choice model of unitary household labour supply is estimated for each year 1998 to 2018. Findings are that own-wage labour supply elasticities implied by the models have increased over the last two decades, especially for couples, and for single males. A decomposition analysis shows that compositional changes in demographics play only a minor role in the shift in males' own- and cross-wage elasticities, since most of the changes in elasticities are driven by preferences or labour market restrictions. For females, changes in composition play a bigger role in the rise of elasticities. The third essay reviews German public finances through the financial crisis 2008/2009. The essay starts with a presentation of the macroeconomic situation and how the crisis unfolded in Germany, before focusing on the situation of the public finances. Finally, the distributional effects of policy responses to the financial crisis are analysed on the individual level using microsimulation.

The <u>first essay</u> [“Twin Deficits and Free Lunches: Macroeconomic Outcomes In Anticipation of Foreign Aid”] concerns itself with situations in which private agents anticipate a future windfall (free lunch) that will help service the debt resulting from a present fiscal expansion (implemented via a temporary tax cut). Such expectations of a windfall can arise in the context of natural resource discoveries or, more interestingly, due to perceptions by agents in “too important to fail” countries that will be bailed out through higher foreign aid or debt relief. We employ an overlapping generations model featuring credit constraints to study the real effects of such free lunch expectations in a small open economy, drawing contrasts with the standard tax and money finance closure rules. The model is solved analytically and shows that anticipated aid is equivalent to current aid when agents have perfect foresight, so that a temporary tax cut is seen as permanent. Accordingly, agents raise their consumption and indebtedness (at the expense of future generations) by an amount that is an increasing function of their “impatience” (subjective rates of time preference plus probability of death). A worsening of the current account obtains (twin deficits) across a range of plausible closure rules, including those featuring money finance. The introduction of credit constrained households (we study the variant where myopic agents spend their current disposable incomes) does not alter the basic result in the case of full aid finance, but does matter for mixed tax-aid regimes, in more complex settings where agent expectations and donor promises on aid diverge, and when governments face borrowing constraints so that the timing of aid delivery matters. The <u>second essay</u> [“The Role of Domestic Debt in Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation For Developing Economies”] focuses on the remaining source of government financing, i.e. domestic debt, and the role it can play in mobilizing private savings, facilitating credit intermediation in higher risk settings (i.e. serving a “collateral” function on bank balance sheets), developing financial markets and supporting economic growth in general. To investigate this question empirically, we set up a new domestic debt database covering about 100 developing economies, going back three decades to 1975; explore Granger causality links between domestic debt and key macroeconomic and institutional variables; and estimate the growth impact of domestic debt using panel regressions, allowing for non-linear effects. Domestic debt, as a share of GDP is found to exert a significant positive impact on economic growth, with potential channels including domestic savings mobilization, provision of risk-insurance on banks’ balance sheets; and greater institutional accountability of the state to its citizens. Although this result countervails more established arguments against domestic debt (i.e. that it leads to crowding out and banks to become lazy), there is some evidence that above a ratio of 35 percent of bank deposits, domestic debt does begin to undermine economic growth. The growth payoff also depends on debt quality, with higher payoffs observed for positive interest-rate bearing marketable debt issued to nonbank sectors. The <u>third and final essay</u> [“Why Do Banks in Developing Economies Hold Domestic Government Securities?”] explores demand-side determinants of domestic debt, by focusing on commercial bank holdings of government paper, discriminating carefully between voluntary factors (such as mean-variance portfolio optimization) and statutory ones (cash reserve and capital adequacy requirements). The analysis is made possible by the construction of a dataset on government and private returns (real and nominal) for almost 600 banks from 70 emerging and low-income economies, spanning the (pre-Basel II) period 1995-2005. A battery of structural cross-section regressions indicates that banks’ portfolio decisions are at least as significantly influenced by mean-variance considerations as regulatory factors: the actual portfolio share of government securities (λ) responds intuitively, and sizably, to variations in the moments of the distributions for government and private returns as well as in the minimum-variance portfolio share (λ*). Higher cash reserve requirements tilt portfolios away from government securities toward riskier private lending, while higher capital adequacy requirements work the other way. The association between actual portfolios and the identified determinants is noticeably weaker at lower ends of the λ distribution, suggesting the domination of non-CAPM factors in those contexts.

La problématique du financement du développement dans les pays en développement se trouve au coeur de cette thèse. Cette dernière s'articule autour de quatre chapitres sur les questions liées au financement du développement. Le chapitre 1 explore les effets des épisodes budgétaires dans les principaux pays donateurs principaux de l'OCDE (Organisation pour la Coopération et le Développement Economique) sur leur offre d'aide au développement aux pays en développement. On observe que les épisodes budgétaires affectent significativement l'offre d'aide, avec une différence comportementale en termes d'offre d'aide du groupe de pays de l'Union européenne versus le groupe de pays de l'OCDE n'appartenant pas à L'Union européenne. Le chapitre 2 s'intéresse aux conséquences des transferts des migrants et de l'imprévisibilité de l'aide au développement sur la probabilité de consolidation budgétaire dans les pays en développement. Les résultats montrent que les transferts des migrants affectent positivement et significativement cette probabilité alors que l'effet est statistiquement nul pour l'imprévisibilité de l'aide. Ces résultats suggèrent en l'occurrence qu'une meilleure gestion des recettes issues de ces transferts durant les périodes de boom économique pourrait aider à éviter de telles situations et offrir une marge de manoeuvre plus importante à ces gouvernements pour la mise en oeuvre de politiques contra-cycliques pendant les périodes de basse conjoncture. Le chapitre 3 analyse l'existence ou non d'effet de la vulnérabilité structurelle des pays en développement sur leur dette publique totale. Les résultats suggèrent qu'un tel effet existe : en l'occurrence, on montre l'existence d'une relation en forme de 'U' entre la vulnérabilité structurelle de ces pays et leur dette publique totale. En focalisant dans le chapitre 4 sur les pays de la zone Franc CFA, nous examinons si leur vulnérabilité structurelle conduit les gouvernements à un endettement excessif. Les résultats suggèrent que plus ces pays sont vulnérables, plus ils sont enclins à un endettement excessif et qu'au-delà d'un seuil de vulnérabilité, leur probabilité d'endettement excessif diminue. Ces résultats obtenus aussi bien pour l'ensemble des pays en développement que pour les pays de la zone Franc CFA suggère que les Institutions Internationales telles que la Banque Mondiale et le Fonds Monétaire International (FMI) devront prendre en compte cette vulnérabilité dans l'évaluation des politiques de développement ainsi que leurs recommandations – en particulier sur les questions liées à l'endettement – pour ces pays. / The issue of financing development in developing countries is at the heart of this thesis. The latter revolves around four chapters on financing development related matters. The chapter 1 explores how fiscal episodes in the main traditional OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) donors affect their supply of development aid towards developing countries. Evidence is shown that fiscal episodes affect significantly aid supply, with a behavioural difference between European Union and Non-European countries in terms of aid supply. The chapter 2 deals with the consequences of development aid unpredictability and migrants' remittances on fiscal consolidation in developing countries. We find evidence that while migrants' remittances exert a positive and significant effect on the likelihood of fiscal consolidation in developing countries, development aid unpredictability does not. These results particularly suggest that a better management of the revenues derived from these private transfers during their booms could help avoid such situations and allow greater room of maneuver for governments’ recipients to implement countercyclical measures during bad times. The chapter 3 investigates whether the structural vulnerability of developing countries matters for their public indebtedness and evidence is obtained that it does. More specifically, we observe the existence of U-curve relationship between this structural vulnerability and the total public debt of these countries. Focusing on the specific case of CFA Franc Zone countries in chapter 4, we examine the relationship between the structural vulnerability and the probability of entering into excessive public debt. We also obtain evidence of a nonlinear effect of the structural vulnerability indicator with respect to the probability of entering into excessive debt: a rise in the structural vulnerability of these countries increases their probability to engage into excessive debt; however this probability declines after a certain threshold of their structural vulnerability. These results (both for developing countries and particularly for CFA Franc Zone countries) suggest that international development institutions such as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) should take into account such vulnerability in their assessment of the adequate development policies and recommendations - especially those related to debt issues -, to these countries.

有鑑於歐洲各國的福利政策與福利支出相較於其他國家高，歐洲國家多會提供窮困與殘障的人民最基本的社會保障，一般人民亦可享受到基礎醫療保障，在失業時也可以領取失業補助；歐洲各政府甚至會收購即將倒閉的企業或者提供補助使企業能夠繼續經營。然而在持續延燒的歐債危機下，為維持歐元區普遍的薪資和福利水平，歐元區內國家開始採取了國家借貸的做法，但由於國際經濟形勢不佳，歐元區經濟增量未達預期，許多國家原有債券陸續到期，若無法借到新貸款，國家將面臨倒閉危機。因此本論文主要以動態隨機一般均衡模型(DSGE)，探討一個封閉經濟體系下，政府支出進入家計單位效用函數後，換言之政府支出變動將會影響家計單位消費的邊際效用，試著尋找能夠極大化社會福利的政府公債占國內生產毛額的最適比例。我們發現在提高政府公債占國內生產毛額比例時：家計單位將預期未來稅賦繳納之金額更高，因而減少消費、增加儲蓄，所以會排擠掉部分私人消費；同時政府必須提撥部分費用以支付債券利息，所以將排擠掉部分政府支出。另外隨政府公債占國內生產毛額比率上升，整體社會福利水準會逐漸下降；因此，我們認為最適政府公債占國內生產毛額比率應為零。 關鍵字：動態隨機一般均衡模型、政府支出、邊際效用、公債、國內生產毛額、社會福利水準 / In Euro zone, large spending obligations needed to support the welfare state and redistribute wealth in an effort to gain greater equality. Most European countries provide liberal social security benefits to the poor, disabled, basic medical needs and very liberal unemployment benefits. They also own and run large public companies. Under the ongoing Euro debt crisis, European governments figure out the way to maintain the high welfare level by increasing the public debt they hold. In our paper, we would like to investigate the optimal ratio of public debt to GDP by constructing a micro-based dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) under a closed economy. We focus on discussing the optimal ratio of public debt to GDP which maximizes social welfare in economy while putting the government expenditure into households’ utility. That is to say, the government expenditure will influence the marginal utilities of households. We find out that as a government decides to raise the debt to GDP ratio; it will crowd out both private consumption and government expenditure. Because households will expect to pay more tax in the future, they will decrease their consumption and increase their saving; high debt ratio means government should have paid more interest payment in the future. Also as the ratio of public debt to GDP rises, the social welfare becomes lower. Thus, in our findings, the optimal debt ratio to GDP should be 0. Keywords: DSGE, Government expenditure, Marginal utility, Public debt, GDP, Social welfare

L'objectiu d'aquesta tesi és analitzar com s'han de concebre les polítiques fiscals i monetàries en un context en què els polítics tenen problemes de credibilitat. Es desenvolupen metodologies i aplicacions per mostrar com diferents graus de credibilitat de les institucions polítiques afecten la determinació d'impostos, deute públic, instruments monetaris i, en general, els resultats econòmics. En el primer capítol - Loose commitment (Compromís Dèbil) -, s'introdueix una nova metodologia per resoldre problemes de política òptima tenint en compte que els polítics podrien no complir les seves promeses, i analitza els efectes de la credibilitat sobre la imposició sobre el capital i sobre el treball. El segon capítol - Political Disagreement Lack of Commitment and the Level of Debt (Desacord Polític, Falta de Compromís i el Nivell de Deute) - considera un cas en què la credibilitat es limitada per el fet d'haver-hi alternança entre polítics amb objectius diferents. En particular, es mostra com l'alternança política i la falta de compromís afecten el nivell de deute públic. Finalment, el tercer capítol - The Macroeconomic Effects of Unstable Monetary Policy Objectives (Els Efectes Macroeconòmics de la Inestabilitat dels Objectius de Política Monetària) - analitza com la possibilitat de canvis en els objectius influeixen en les decisions de política monetària. / El objetivo de esta tesis es analizar cómo se deben concebir las políticas fiscales y monetarias en un contexto en que los políticos tienen problemas de credibilidad. Se desarrollan metodologías y aplicaciones para mostrar cómo diferentes grados de credibilidad de las instituciones políticas afectan la determinación de impuestos, deuda pública, instrumentos monetarios y, en general, los resultados económicos. En el primer capítulo - Loose commitment (Compromiso Débil)-, se introduce una nueva metodología para resolver problemas de política óptima tomando en cuenta que los políticos podrían no cumplir con sus promesas, y analiza los efectos de la credibilidad sobre la imposición sobre el capital y el trabajo. El segundo capítulo - Political Disagreement Lack of Commitment and the Level of Debt (Desacuerdo Político, Falta de Compromiso y el Nivel de Deuda) - considera un caso en que la credibilidad está limitada por el hecho de que hay alternancia entre políticos con distintos objetivos. En particular, se muestra cómo la alternancia política y la falta de compromiso afectan el nivel de deuda pública. Por último, el tercer capítulo - The Macroeconomic Effects of Unstable Monetary Policy Objectives (Los Efectos Macroeconómicos de la Inestabilidad de los Objetivos de Política Monetaria) - analiza cómo la posibilidad de cambios en los objetivos influye en las decisiones de política monetaria. / The purpose of this thesis is to analyze how fiscal and monetary policies should be designed in a context where policymakers have credibility problems. Methodologies and applications are developed to show how different degrees of policymakers' credibility affect the determination of policy choices, such as taxes or monetary instruments, and more generally the economic outcomes.The first chapter - Loose Commitment -, introduces a new methodology to solve optimal policy problems taking into account that policymakers may not fulfill their promises, and analyzes the effects of policymakers' commitment on capital and labor taxation. The second chapter - Political Disagreement, Lack of Commitment and the Level of Debt - considers a case where commitment is limited by the fact that policymakers with different objectives alternate in office. In particular, it is shown how lack of commitment and political turnover affect the level of public debt. Finally, the third chapter - The Macroeconomic Effects of Unstable Monetary Policy Objectives - analyzes how the possibility of changes in policy objectives influences monetary policy choices.