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Yes / This paper develops a model of optimal choice over an array of different assets, including domestic and foreign bonds, domestic and foreign equities, and domestic and foreign real money balances, with a view to examine whether stock markets have an effect on the exchange rate in the long-run. The model is tested using data from the UK and the USA. Evidence suggests that the UK stock market has a significant effect on the value of the pound's sterling nominal effective exchange rate in the long-run over the period 1982 to 2011.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of California, San Diego, 2003. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 292-310).

Até o ano de 1964, o Brasil enfrentou sérias adversidades no campo econômico, não só pela ausência de tradição exportadora e cultural mas, também, pelas limitações da estrutura operacional do mercado de câmbio. Com o advento da Lei 4595, de 31.12.64, extingue-se a Sumoc, cria-se o Banco Central, estabelecem-se condições para o Banco do Brasil impulsionar as suas atividades comerciais e normatiza-se o funcionamento do mercado de capitais, circunstância que acenava como sinal dos novos tempos.De lá para cá, o país, a acompanhar a torrente dos tempos modernos, organizou o sistema financeiro nacional e empreendeu forte escalada na área internacional. A criação de agências bancárias no exterior estimulou o aprendizado de novos conhecimentos e a aquisição de técnicas operacionais sofisticadas, igualando-nos, no particular, às nações mais desenvolvidas do mundo. Tais aspectos são destacados no presente trabalho, inicialmente, por meio de uma abordagem do mercado de câmbio brasileiro, sua estrutura em termos organizacionais e o seu funcionamento em termos operacionais. De outra parte, ao relatarmos, de forma retrospectiva, a política cambial brasileira, desde a Segunda Guerra Mundial aos dias de hoje, enfatizamos as inúmeras tentativas de acerto na condução das políticas monetária e cambial, as quais sempre tiveram o propósito de debelar o processo inflacionário e o atingimento de superávits comerciais para aliviar o BP do país. Um assunto, no entanto, percorre toda a nossa análise e se constitui no tema central desta Dissertação: as taxas cambiais como produto de políticas cambiais equivocadas, a sua relação direta com as taxas de juros e os seus efeitos deletérios nas contas públicas. Neste ponto, procedemos a um estudo dos diversos planos econômicos implantados na economia, com destaque para o único que efetivamente teve sucesso na finalidade a que inicialmente se destinou: o Plano Real. A prática demonstrou, todavia, que há hoje um indisfarçável consenso sobre as inconsistências da atual política cambial, nossa dependência dos capitais externos e as dificuldades para desmontar a armadilha da sobrevalorização cambial e dos juros elevados. O atual arcabouço macroeconômico, a despeito da estabilidade monetária, não pode mais voltar-se apenas para o controle de metas de inflação. / Up until 1964, Brazil faced severe difficulties in the economic sphere, due not only to the absence of an exporting and cultural tradition but also to the limitations in the operational structure of its currency exchange market. When Law 4595 of 12.31.64 comes into force, Sumoc ceases to exist, Banco Central (Brazilian Central Bank) is created, the conditions necessary for Banco do Brasil to boost its activities are established and the operation of the stock becomes regulated, an event hailed as a sign of the new times. From then on, the country, in keeping with modern times, has organized the domestic financial system and inserted itself heavily in the international arena. The establishment of bank branches abroad has fostered the development of fresh knowledge and the acquisition of sophisticated operational techniques, bringing us to par, in this particular, with the most developed nations in the world. Such aspects are highlighted in this paper, initially, through an overview of the Brazilian exchange market, its organizational structure and operation. Then, as we retrospectively describe the Brazilian exchange policy from World War II up to the present, we emphasize the countless attempts at correctly adjusting the administration of monetary and exchange policies, which have always been aimed at subduing the inflationary process and reaching commercial surplus in order to alleviate the country's Balance of Payments. One subject, however, is present throughout our analysis and constitutes the central theme to this Dissertation: exchange rates as a product of misguided exchange policies, their direct correlation to interest rates and their adverse effects on public accounts. On that point, we carry out a study of the several economic plans implemented in the country, highlighting the only one to actually reach success regarding its initial goal: Plano Real (Real Plan). Nonetheless, experience has shown that there is currently a hardly concealable consensus on the inconsistencies in the present exchange policy, our dependence on foreign capital and the difficulties to free the country from the trap of currency exchange over appreciation and high interest rates. The current macroeconomic frame, despite the monetary stability, can no longer be dedicated solely to the control of inflation targets.

Até o ano de 1964, o Brasil enfrentou sérias adversidades no campo econômico, não só pela ausência de tradição exportadora e cultural mas, também, pelas limitações da estrutura operacional do mercado de câmbio. Com o advento da Lei 4595, de 31.12.64, extingue-se a Sumoc, cria-se o Banco Central, estabelecem-se condições para o Banco do Brasil impulsionar as suas atividades comerciais e normatiza-se o funcionamento do mercado de capitais, circunstância que acenava como sinal dos novos tempos.De lá para cá, o país, a acompanhar a torrente dos tempos modernos, organizou o sistema financeiro nacional e empreendeu forte escalada na área internacional. A criação de agências bancárias no exterior estimulou o aprendizado de novos conhecimentos e a aquisição de técnicas operacionais sofisticadas, igualando-nos, no particular, às nações mais desenvolvidas do mundo. Tais aspectos são destacados no presente trabalho, inicialmente, por meio de uma abordagem do mercado de câmbio brasileiro, sua estrutura em termos organizacionais e o seu funcionamento em termos operacionais. De outra parte, ao relatarmos, de forma retrospectiva, a política cambial brasileira, desde a Segunda Guerra Mundial aos dias de hoje, enfatizamos as inúmeras tentativas de acerto na condução das políticas monetária e cambial, as quais sempre tiveram o propósito de debelar o processo inflacionário e o atingimento de superávits comerciais para aliviar o BP do país. Um assunto, no entanto, percorre toda a nossa análise e se constitui no tema central desta Dissertação: as taxas cambiais como produto de políticas cambiais equivocadas, a sua relação direta com as taxas de juros e os seus efeitos deletérios nas contas públicas. Neste ponto, procedemos a um estudo dos diversos planos econômicos implantados na economia, com destaque para o único que efetivamente teve sucesso na finalidade a que inicialmente se destinou: o Plano Real. A prática demonstrou, todavia, que há hoje um indisfarçável consenso sobre as inconsistências da atual política cambial, nossa dependência dos capitais externos e as dificuldades para desmontar a armadilha da sobrevalorização cambial e dos juros elevados. O atual arcabouço macroeconômico, a despeito da estabilidade monetária, não pode mais voltar-se apenas para o controle de metas de inflação. / Up until 1964, Brazil faced severe difficulties in the economic sphere, due not only to the absence of an exporting and cultural tradition but also to the limitations in the operational structure of its currency exchange market. When Law 4595 of 12.31.64 comes into force, Sumoc ceases to exist, Banco Central (Brazilian Central Bank) is created, the conditions necessary for Banco do Brasil to boost its activities are established and the operation of the stock becomes regulated, an event hailed as a sign of the new times. From then on, the country, in keeping with modern times, has organized the domestic financial system and inserted itself heavily in the international arena. The establishment of bank branches abroad has fostered the development of fresh knowledge and the acquisition of sophisticated operational techniques, bringing us to par, in this particular, with the most developed nations in the world. Such aspects are highlighted in this paper, initially, through an overview of the Brazilian exchange market, its organizational structure and operation. Then, as we retrospectively describe the Brazilian exchange policy from World War II up to the present, we emphasize the countless attempts at correctly adjusting the administration of monetary and exchange policies, which have always been aimed at subduing the inflationary process and reaching commercial surplus in order to alleviate the country's Balance of Payments. One subject, however, is present throughout our analysis and constitutes the central theme to this Dissertation: exchange rates as a product of misguided exchange policies, their direct correlation to interest rates and their adverse effects on public accounts. On that point, we carry out a study of the several economic plans implemented in the country, highlighting the only one to actually reach success regarding its initial goal: Plano Real (Real Plan). Nonetheless, experience has shown that there is currently a hardly concealable consensus on the inconsistencies in the present exchange policy, our dependence on foreign capital and the difficulties to free the country from the trap of currency exchange over appreciation and high interest rates. The current macroeconomic frame, despite the monetary stability, can no longer be dedicated solely to the control of inflation targets.

Até o ano de 1964, o Brasil enfrentou sérias adversidades no campo econômico, não só pela ausência de tradição exportadora e cultural mas, também, pelas limitações da estrutura operacional do mercado de câmbio. Com o advento da Lei 4595, de 31.12.64, extingue-se a Sumoc, cria-se o Banco Central, estabelecem-se condições para o Banco do Brasil impulsionar as suas atividades comerciais e normatiza-se o funcionamento do mercado de capitais, circunstância que acenava como sinal dos novos tempos.De lá para cá, o país, a acompanhar a torrente dos tempos modernos, organizou o sistema financeiro nacional e empreendeu forte escalada na área internacional. A criação de agências bancárias no exterior estimulou o aprendizado de novos conhecimentos e a aquisição de técnicas operacionais sofisticadas, igualando-nos, no particular, às nações mais desenvolvidas do mundo. Tais aspectos são destacados no presente trabalho, inicialmente, por meio de uma abordagem do mercado de câmbio brasileiro, sua estrutura em termos organizacionais e o seu funcionamento em termos operacionais. De outra parte, ao relatarmos, de forma retrospectiva, a política cambial brasileira, desde a Segunda Guerra Mundial aos dias de hoje, enfatizamos as inúmeras tentativas de acerto na condução das políticas monetária e cambial, as quais sempre tiveram o propósito de debelar o processo inflacionário e o atingimento de superávits comerciais para aliviar o BP do país. Um assunto, no entanto, percorre toda a nossa análise e se constitui no tema central desta Dissertação: as taxas cambiais como produto de políticas cambiais equivocadas, a sua relação direta com as taxas de juros e os seus efeitos deletérios nas contas públicas. Neste ponto, procedemos a um estudo dos diversos planos econômicos implantados na economia, com destaque para o único que efetivamente teve sucesso na finalidade a que inicialmente se destinou: o Plano Real. A prática demonstrou, todavia, que há hoje um indisfarçável consenso sobre as inconsistências da atual política cambial, nossa dependência dos capitais externos e as dificuldades para desmontar a armadilha da sobrevalorização cambial e dos juros elevados. O atual arcabouço macroeconômico, a despeito da estabilidade monetária, não pode mais voltar-se apenas para o controle de metas de inflação. / Up until 1964, Brazil faced severe difficulties in the economic sphere, due not only to the absence of an exporting and cultural tradition but also to the limitations in the operational structure of its currency exchange market. When Law 4595 of 12.31.64 comes into force, Sumoc ceases to exist, Banco Central (Brazilian Central Bank) is created, the conditions necessary for Banco do Brasil to boost its activities are established and the operation of the stock becomes regulated, an event hailed as a sign of the new times. From then on, the country, in keeping with modern times, has organized the domestic financial system and inserted itself heavily in the international arena. The establishment of bank branches abroad has fostered the development of fresh knowledge and the acquisition of sophisticated operational techniques, bringing us to par, in this particular, with the most developed nations in the world. Such aspects are highlighted in this paper, initially, through an overview of the Brazilian exchange market, its organizational structure and operation. Then, as we retrospectively describe the Brazilian exchange policy from World War II up to the present, we emphasize the countless attempts at correctly adjusting the administration of monetary and exchange policies, which have always been aimed at subduing the inflationary process and reaching commercial surplus in order to alleviate the country's Balance of Payments. One subject, however, is present throughout our analysis and constitutes the central theme to this Dissertation: exchange rates as a product of misguided exchange policies, their direct correlation to interest rates and their adverse effects on public accounts. On that point, we carry out a study of the several economic plans implemented in the country, highlighting the only one to actually reach success regarding its initial goal: Plano Real (Real Plan). Nonetheless, experience has shown that there is currently a hardly concealable consensus on the inconsistencies in the present exchange policy, our dependence on foreign capital and the difficulties to free the country from the trap of currency exchange over appreciation and high interest rates. The current macroeconomic frame, despite the monetary stability, can no longer be dedicated solely to the control of inflation targets.

The study was conducted to examine the effect of exploitation on population parameters of coyotes (Canis latrans). Hypotheses tested were: (1) Substantial levels of exploitation do not change spring and fall coyote densities significantly; (2) Coyote recruitment (reproduction and immigration) rates are unaffected by substantial levels of exploitation; (3) Annual coyote survival rates are not related to intensity of harvest rates; (4) Coyote emigration rates remain unchanged by substantial levels of exploitation. Coyote demographic parameters were measured from 1975 to 1978 for a treatment population subject to substantial exploitation (Curlew Valley, Utah and Idaho), and for an unexploited to lightly exploited control population (Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, INEL). Treatment and control populations were about 100 km apart on environmentally similar areas. Availability and utilization of prey also were similar for the two populations, with the major difference being in the type of lagomorph consumed. Relative spring densities, estimated by scent station indices, increased for both populations over the study period. Relative fall densities in the two areas were estimated by scent station lines, scat indices, and catch-effort indices and increased from 1975 to 1976, but were relatively constant thereafter. Estimates of absolute fall density from isotope labeling of feces also were similar within each area for 1977 and 1978. Neither spring nor fall density estimates were significantly different between areas in any given year or overall. Recruitment rates, as estimated from spring to fall increase in scent station visitation rates generally decreased over the study period, while estimates from age and sex structure of coyotes trapped in the fall increased for both populations over the study period. Estimated recruitment to fall populations (Pf) was consistently greater in Curlew Valley each of the four years, and overall was significantly greater than recruitment at the INEL. Spring to fall change in scent station indices was greater for Curlew Valley for all years except 1975. Annual survival rates were estimated for adults and juveniles marked with transmitters and/or ear tags using methods of statistical inference from band recovery data. Estimated survival rates for adults and juveniles were constant over the study period for each population and did not differ significantly between populations. Estimates of adult and juvenile survival and/or recovery (mortality) rates were significantly different within the Curlew Valley and INEL populations. Estimated hunting mortality rates for adults and juveniles remaining in the treatment population were 56 and 350 percent higher than similar estimates for the control population. Significantly higher in situ juvenile hunting mortality rates were associated with significantly lower nonhunting mortality and emigration rates. Emigration was not only greater from the control population, but it was distributed more evenly over the fall and winter. The following conclusions resulted from the study. Exploitation (kill) rates were substantially higher in the treatment population as expected. Observed differences in fall-winter adult and juvenile in situ kill rates did not produce significant differences in spring or fall densities, or in annual survival rates. Recruitment rates were related directly to hunting mortality rates, while emigration rates were related inversely.