This thesis consists of four self-contained essays on the various topics in finance.  The first essay, The Information Content of The Systematic Risk Structure of Corporate Yields for Future Real Activity: An Exploratory Empirical Investigation, constructs a proxy for the systematic component of the risk structure of corporate yields (or systematic risk structure), and tests how well it predicts real economic activity in the United States. It finds that the systematic risk structure predicts the growth rate of industrial production 3 to 18 months into the future even when other leading indicators are controlled for, outperforming other models. A regime-switching estimation also shows that the systematic risk structure is very successful in identifying and capturing different growth regimes of industrial production.  The second essay, How Much Leverage is Too Much, or Does Corporate Risk Determine the Severity of a Recession? investigates whether financial conditions of the U.S. corporate sector  can explain the probability and severity of recessions. It proposes a measure of corporate vulnerability, the Corporate Vulnerability Index (CVI) constructed as the default probability for the entire corporate sector. It finds that the CVI is a significant predictor of the probability of a recession 4 to 6 quarters ahead, even controlling for other leading indicators, and that an increase in the CVI is also associated with a rise in the probability of a more severe and lengthy recession 3 to 6 quarters ahead.  The third essay, Asian Flu or Wall Street Virus? Tech and Non-Tech Spillovers in the United States and Asia (with Jorge A. Chan-Lau), using TGARCH models, finds that U.S. stock markets have been the major source of price and volatility spillovers to stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region during three different periods: the pre-LTCM crisis period, the “tech bubble” period, and the “stock market correction” period. Hong Kong SAR, Japan, and Singapore were sources of spillovers within the region and affected the United States during the latter period. There is also evidence of structural breaks in the stock price and volatility dynamics induced during the “tech bubble” period.  The fourth essay, Coping with Financial Spillovers from the United States: The Effect of U. S. Corporate Scandals on Canadian Stock Prices, investigates the effect of U.S. corporate scandals on stock prices of Canadian firms interlisted  in the United States. It finds that firms interlisted during the pre-Enron period enjoyed increases in post-listing equilibrium prices, while firms interlisted during the post-Enron period experienced declines in post-listing equilibrium prices, relative to a model-based benchmark. Analyzing the entire universe of Canadian firms, it finds that interlisted firms, regardless of their listing time, were perceived as increasingly risky by Canadian investors after the Enron’s bankruptcy. / Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2003

Undersökningens syfte är att redogöra för hur den svenska aktiemarknaden reagerarvid förändringar av reporäntan under hög- respektive lågkonjunktur. Undersökningen kommer även att granska hur olika företag baserat på företagens omsättning på Stockholmsbörsenreagerar på förändringar av reporäntan.De teorier som används i undersökningen är teori om reporäntan och den effektivamarknadshypotesen. Studien behandlar den kvantitativa metoden med deduktiva inslag. Studien tillämpar även MacKinlays eventstudie metod för finansiering och ekonomi. Undersökningens resultat består av två perioder med 14 observationer av reporäntan under högkonjunktur och 9 observationer under lågkonjunktur.Resultatet påvisade inget samband mellan en höjning av reporänta och sänkning i aktiekursen i enighet med teori. Däremot går resultatet i enighet med teori för en sänkning av reporäntanoch en uppgång i kursen. / The purpose with this study is to disclose how Swedish stock market reacts to changes in discount rate during different cycles of economy. This study will also examine how different industries react on discount rate changes made by the Swedish Central Bank. The theories used in this study are the efficient market hypothesis theory and theory about the federal funds rate. In this study we use a quantitative research method with a deductive strategy. This study also includes MacKinlays event study methodology for finance and economics. The study includes two different time intervals, where one period has 14 observations on fund rate changes during booms and 9 observations during recession. The results for booms didn’t show any correlation between a hike in discount rate and a decline in stock market. Where as in recession period, there was a correlation between a decrease in discount rate and hikes in stock market

La plupart des côtes de la Terre reculent et 80% sont rocheuses. La prévision du recul des falaises littorales est primordiale afin d’anticiper les risques futurs pour les aménagements littoraux. Cependant, la compréhension de ce recul est difficile car de nombreux paramètres le contrôlent. Des expériences en canal à houle de petite échelle ont été effectuées où nous avons mis en place un massif de sable humide soumis à l’attaque des vagues par sapement. Le but est de comprendre comment l’effet des vagues contrôle l’érosion des falaises. La technique de mesure par ombroscopie a été employée et nous a permis de détecter la surface du sable et la surface libre en fonction du temps. Nous avons ainsi analysé l’influence du forçage des vagues (F, ξ) (où F est le flux d’énergie des vagues incidentes au large et ξ est le paramètre de similitude de “surf”) sur la vitesse de recul de la falaise et sur la profondeur des évènements d’effondrement. La vitesse de recul de la falaise augmente linéairement avec le flux d’énergie F. Les débris de falaise érodés changent la morphologie du fond, les types de morphologie du fond dépendent fortement du paramètre de similitude de “surf” au déferlement, ou encore du paramètre de Dean Ω. Des profils du fond instationnaires présentant une oscillation auto-entretenue de la barre sédimentaire ont été observés. Nous avons de plus étudié l’effet de la granulométrie du sable utilisé : pour un sable plus fin, la falaise est plus cohésive et s’effondre au cours d’évènements de plus grande ampleur. Etonnamment, le recul de la falaise est plus important pour du sable fin. Ceci est probablement dû à une modification de la morphologie du fond conduisant à une dissipation de l’énergie des vagues moins importante. Le volume de sable injecté dans le système a finalement été quantifié, la barre sédimentaire a d’abord été prélevée périodiquement et il a été observé que la vitesse de recul de la falaise vr est constante. Puis, la hauteur de falaise a été modifiée, le recul des falaises est plus important pour des petites falaises. Il semblerait que l’instationnarité d’un profil du fond se déclenche à partir d’un volume seuil de sable érodé. / Most of the Earth coasts recedes and 80 % are rocky. Prediction of sea-cliff recession is essential to anticipate future risks for coastal development. However, it is difficult to understand this recession because many parameters control it. In addition, both the space and time scales are too big for the different mechanisms of cliff erosion to be fully analysed. Experiments in a small-scale wave flume were conducted in which a massif made of wet sand is submitted to wave attack. The aim is to understand how cliff erosion is wave-controlled. The technique of shadow graph measurements was used to detect the time evolution of sand and water surfaces. We have analyzed the influence of wave forcing (F, ξ) (where F is the incident offshore wave energy flux and ξ is the surf similarity parameter) on the cliff recession rate and on collapse event size. The cliff recession rate increases linearly with the wave energy flux F. The eroded cliff materials change the bottom morphology ; the types of bottom morphology strongly depend on the surf similarity parameter at the breaker point, or the Dean parameter Ω. Bottom profiles characterized by unsteady self-sustained sandbar oscillation were observed. In addition, we studied how sand granulometry change the system evolution. Finer the sand is, more cohesive is the cliff and bigger are cliff collapses. Contrary to what was expected, cliff recession is more important for a finer sand : this could be due to a more dissipative bottom morphology built by fine sands. The sand volume within the system changes following cliff collapses and a sandbar removal during particular experiments. The cliff recession rate is constant when the sandbar is removed and decreases with cliff height. It seems that the unsteadiness of the bottom profile is activated when the volume of eroded sand exceeds a threshold value.

CLIMATIC CHANGE EFFECT ON HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT IN THE OTAVA RIVER HEADWATERS Abstract The submitted thesis deals with hydrological drought in condition of climate change in Otava River headwaters. The topic is discussed from four different aspects that together create a complex view on the hydrological drought issues in the catchment. The first aspect, the hydrological drought analysis in daily series, is done by threshold level method and SPA. Second aspect studies the impact of climate change on the hydrological drought by using the BILAN model. Following aspect determines a prediction of low flows and deficit volumes during drought by the recession analysis. Final aspect suggests relating process of management, planning and adaptation measures on drought. Key words: hydrological drought, minimal discharges, deficit volumes, BILAN model, climatic change, recession analysis, Otava River, Modrava, Rejštejn, Sušice, adaptation measures

This thesis explores key aspects for synthesizing data across spatiotemporal scales relevant for water resources management in an Eastern Africa context. Specifically, the potential of large scale global precipitation datasets (GPDs) in data limited regions to overcome spatial and temporal data gaps is considered. The thesis also explores the potential to utilize limited and non-continuous streamflow and stream water chemistry observations to increase hydrological process understanding. The information gained is then used to build a coherent hydro-climatic framework for streamflow modelling. In this thesis, Kilombero Valley Drainage Basin (KVDB) in Tanzania is used as an example of a data limited region targeted for rapid development, intensification and expansion of agriculture. As such, it is representative for many regions across the Eastern Africa. With regards to the data synthesis, two satellite products, three reanalysis products and three interpolated products were evaluated based on their spatial and temporal precipitation patterns. Streamflow data from KVDB and eight subcatchments were then assessed for quality with regards to missing data. Furthermore, recession analysis was used to estimate catchment-scale characteristic drainage timescale. Results from these streamflow analyses, in conjunction with a hydrological tracer-based analysis, were then used for improved understanding of streamflow generation in the region. Finally, a coherent modelling framework using the HBV rainfall-runoff model was implemented and evaluated based on daily streamflow simulation. Despite the challenges of data limited regions and the often large uncertainty in results, this thesis demonstrates that improved process understanding could be obtained from limited streamflow records and a focused hydrochemical sampling when experimental design natural variability were leveraged to gain a large  signal to noise ratio. Combining results across all investigations rendered information useful for the conceptualization and implementation of the hydro-climatic modelling framework relevant in Kilombero Valley. For example, when synthesized into a coherent framework the GPDs could be downscaled and used for daily streamflow simulations at the catchment scale with moderate success. This is promising when considering the need for estimating impacts of potential future land use and climate change as well as agricultural intensification. / Denna avhandling utforskar aspekter på att syntetisera data med olika rumslig och temporal upplösning, vilket är centralt för vattenförvaltning i östra Afrika. Särskilt fokus ligger på att undersöka möjligheten till att använda globala nederbördsdataset för att fylla rumsliga och temporala luckor där data saknas. Avhandlingen undersökeräven möjligheten till att använda flödesdata med icke-kompletta tidsserier samt kemidata från vattendrag för att utöka kunskap-en om hydrologiska processer. Informationen används för att bygga upp ett integrerande ram-verk för hydro-klimatologisk modellering som exempelvis kan användas för att utforska ef-fekten av ett utökat och intensifierat jordburk på vattenresurser. I denna avhandling användes Kilomberodalens avrinningsområde (Tanzania) som exempel på ett databegränsat område där det pågår en intensiv utökning av jordbruksverksamhet. Detta område kan ses som representa-tivt för ett stort antal områden inom östra Afrika.Datasyntesen innefattade två nederbördsprodukter baserade på satellitdata, tre baserade på återanalysprodukter samt två baserade på interpolering av observervationsdata från regnmä-tare. Dessa åtta produkter utvärderades baserat på deras nederbördsmönster i rum och tid. Ut-över detta utvärderades vattenföringsdata från Kilomberodalens avrinningsområde samt åtta delavrinningsområden utifrån mängden saknad data i respektive tidsserie. Vidare användes resultaten från hydrologisk recessionsanalysför att uppskatta den karaktäristiska avrinningsti-den för avrinningsområden. Resultaten från recessionsanalysensamthydrologiskt spårämnes-försök användessedan för att utöka kunskapen om avrinningsbildning och vattenföring i om-rådet samt som stöd i valet av hydrologiskt modelleringsverktyg. Avslutningsvis användes HBV-avrinningsmodellen för att simulera daglig vattenföring. Trots utmaningen i att arbeta iett databegränsat område och de osäkerheter i resultat som detta tenderar att leda till visar resultaten att det var möjligt att använda begränsad vattenfö-ringsdata och vattenkemidata för att utöka den hydrologiska processförståelsen av området. Detta möjliggjordes genom ett experimentellt upplägg som utnyttjade till ett stort signal-till-brusförhållande under rådande förhållanden av naturlig variabilitet. Kombinerade resultat från alla genomförda studier kunde utnyttjas vid konceptualiseringen och implementeringen av ramverket för hydroklimatologisk modellering av Kilomberodalens avrinningsområde. Till exempel kunde de globala nederbördsdataseten användas för lokal modellering av flödesdata med viss framgång efter syntes och implementering i det integrerande ramverket för hydro-klimatologisk modellering. Detta är lovande med tanke på behovet av att undersöka vilken påverkan möjliga framtida förändringar i markanvändning, klimat samt jordbruk har på den lokala och regionala miljön. / <p>At the time of the doctoral defense, the following papers were unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 3: Manuscript. Paper 4: Manuscript.</p>

L’élaboration des Plans de Prévention des Risques Littoraux (PPRL) « prioritaires », définis suite à la tempête Xynthia de 2010, a provoqué des débats, souvent conflictuels, entre l’Etat et les collectivités territoriales au sujet des cartes d’aléas submersion marine ou recul du trait de côte. Cette recherche doctorale s’attache à la compréhension du processus de construction de ces cartes. Elle analyse les facteurs influençant cette cartographie à partir de ce que représentent les cartes d’aléas pour chaque acteur. Les résultats de cette recherche mettent en évidence que les études d’aléas sont peu issues des connaissances territoriales et abordées sous un angle expert complexe. Les acteurs locaux s’approprient ainsi difficilement les nouvelles connaissances sur les aléas littoraux. La forte présence des aspects techniques et la mécanique d’élaboration du zonage réglementaire conduisent à une cristallisation des débats des PPRL sur la cartographie des aléas. Ces débats cachent aussi souvent des conceptions distinctes de la politique de prévention et des intérêts divergents entre acteurs agissant à échelles spatiales et temporelles différentes. L’ouverture restreinte des discussions par l’Etat lors de la cartographie des aléas de référence et de l’élaboration du zonage conduit à une faible territorialisation des PPRL et rend difficile leur intégration au sein des politiques locales de prévention des risques littoraux et d’aménagement du territoire. Cette thèse révèle ainsi l’importance cruciale de la concertation et d’une entrée par le territoire, pour mettre en place une appropriation active des connaissances sur les aléas et favoriser l’intégration du PPRL au sein de l’action publique territoriale. / The development of Coastal risks prevention plans, identified as priorities after Xynthia storm in 2010, has revealed divisive debates, between the state services and territorial authorities, about coastal flooding or coastline recession mapping. This PhD research deals with the understanding of coastal hazards mapping. It analyses the factors which influence this process based on what do the maps represent for each stakeholder.The research results highlight that hazards studies sparsely come from territorial knowledge and are often approached from a complex expert angle. Thus, new knowledge is hardly managed by local stakeholders. Significant debates about technical aspects and the process of regulatory zoning conception lead to the fact that hazards mapping crystallizes the PPRL debates. Actually, these debates often hide different conceptions of prevention policy and opposing interests of stakeholders acting at different spatial and temporal scales. The few opened discussions purposed by state services during reference hazards mapping and zoning conception lead to a low territorialization of the PPRL and make their integration in local policies of coastal risks prevention and of land use planning difficult.Thus, this PhD highlights the crucial role of dialogue and of an input by the territory, in order to start an active appropriation of hazards knowledge and to enable the PPRL integration within the territorial public policy.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-15T19:34:26Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Sergio Jose Zeri Nunes.pdf: 3730557 bytes, checksum: eb4c696875c9954c6b15d1523f813ade (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-08-05 / This study aims to analyze the economics of stagflation, extremely deleterious condition characterized by the presence of stagnation of the economy associated with high inflation, thus it is a situation of great macroeconomic imbalance, with significant social implications, and interest in law. Initially, this research will study the theme through the economic field. In this way, the analysis of inflation side of the disorder denotes impact on price stability, arbitrary redistribution of resources, wage disorder, discouragement of savings and investments, in addition to imply increased interest rate, and negative influence on economic growth in the long run. The recessive side demonstrates reduced production of goods and services, fall of social welfare, non-use of productive resources, and increase of unemployment. After, the analysis will be made of its interaction with science of law, through constitutional paradigm. This correlation shows contrast between this situation and the constitutional economic order, with opposition to its fundamentals of human labor and free enterprise, to its purposes of dignified existence and social justice, and contrasts with the constitutional economics principles of sovereignty, free competition, consumer protection, reduction of regional and social inequalities, pursuit of full employment and favorable treatment for small businesses. This research will investigate the related economic policies. Inadequate policies are etiologic factors for Stagflation, in this way, as all state actions, are subject to limits and controls, especially constitutional. Finally, this study will discuss the interrelationship between economic policy, stagflation and development. The macroeconomics of stagflation is the polar opposite of a development macroeconomics, so governments should implement economic policies that combat stagflation and boost development. / O presente estudo visa analisar a economia da estagflação, condição extremamente nociva, caracterizada pela presença de estagnação da economia associada à inflação alta; deste modo configura-se como situação de grande desequilíbrio macroeconômico, com importantes repercussões sociais, e de interesse ao Direito. Inicialmente, esta pesquisa estudará o tema através da visão da ciência econômica. Sob este prisma, a análise do polo inflacionário do distúrbio denota impacto sobre a estabilidade dos preços, desordem salarial, redistribuição arbitrária de recursos, desestímulo à poupança e a investimentos, além de implicar aumento de juros, com influência negativa no crescimento econômico a longo prazo. O polo recessivo demonstra redução da produção de bens e serviços, queda do bem-estar social, não aproveitamento de recursos produtivos, e tendência ao desemprego. Posteriormente, será feita análise de sua interação com o Direito, por meio do paradigma constitucional. Esta correlação demonstra contraposição entre esta conjuntura e a Ordem Econômica Constitucional, com oposição aos fundamentos de valorização do trabalho humano e da livre iniciativa, às finalidades de existência digna e de justiça social, bem como se contrapõe aos princípios econômico-constitucionais da soberania, livre concorrência, defesa do consumidor, redução das desigualdades regionais e sociais, pleno emprego e tratamento favorecido para as empresas de pequeno porte. A presente pesquisa ainda irá investigar as políticas econômicas correlacionadas. Políticas inadequadas são fatores etiológicos para estagflação; assim, como todos os atos do Estado, são sujeitas a limites e controles, especialmente jurídicoconstitucionais. Por fim, este estudo discutirá a inter-relação entre políticas econômicas, estagflação e desenvolvimento. A macroeconomia da estagflação é o polo oposto de uma macroeconomia do desenvolvimento, portanto, os governos devem aplicar políticas econômicas que combatam a primeira e impulsionem o desenvolvimento.

<p> </p><p>The luxury market has steadily grown from the industrial revolution and onwards. Changes in society, trends and the increased living standards has enabled more people to consume luxury goods.</p><p>The world is going through a major economic crisis at the moment. Studies shows that companies that have focused on added value rather than lowering prices has survived past financial crisis. It is also obvious that companies act very different during times of crisis. Adding to the problem is trends that point to a more careful consumption and environmental awareness. Different source suggest different opinions on the situation and future for the luxury market.</p><p>The purpose of the study is to answer what strategies are important for luxury brands during a financial crisis.</p><p>To answer this a qualitative study is performed on Swedish luxury brands to analyse what their strategies are during the current economic crisis and compare that to how ”exclusive” or ”luxurious” they are considered. This to investigate if there is a relationship between a brands exclusiveness and chosen strategy.</p><p> </p>

Bakgrund: Åren 86-97 kännetecknas som en period med flera stora reformer och en svensk konjunktur som nådde sin botten med tre år i följd av negativ BNP-tillväxt. Påtagligt var även reaktionen från Stockholmsbörsen som i samband med lågkonjunkturen upplevde en kraftig nedgång. Vad drev då denna avkastningsutveckling, vinsterna eller värderingarna av dessa? Hur såg sambandet ut mellan konjunktur, bolagsvinster, vinstvärderingar och börsutveckling för perioden? Syfte: Syftet med denna uppsats, på uppdrag av Melker Schörling AB, är att studera avkastningsutveckling, bolagsvinster och P/E-multiplar över en konjunkturcykel för att analysera till vilken grad multipelexpansion/kontraktion kontra vinsttillväxt drivit avkastningen för olika branscher på Stockholmsbörsen. I ett andra skede utreds huruvida prognoser för P/E-tal och branschvinster på Stockholmsbörsen korrelerat med konjunkturen samt även hur EBITDA- och vinstmarginaler inverkat på aktievärderingar under tidsperioden. Utifrån studiens resultat kommer eventuella lärdomar kopplas till dagens konjunkturella situation. Genomförande: Insamlat datamaterial i form av siffror och nyckeltal utgår från Affärsvärldens tidsskrifter och årsböcker med början 1986 och slut 1997. Utifrån dessa har, för studien, relevanta beräkningar dessutom gjorts. Resultat: Studien av Stockholmsbörsen 86-97, där handelsbranschen genomled konjunkturnedgången bäst, visar inte på att konjunkturen spelar roll för avkastningsutvecklingen. Vinstprognoserna drev avkastningen under lågkonjunkturen medan vinstvärderingarna dämpade nedgången. Genomgående ökade vinstvärderingarna under lågkonjunkturen till följd av att vinstprognoserna föll mer än kursen. Studien visar på att dessa ökade vinstvärderingar innehöll överskattade vinstförväntningar. Innan börsnedgången befann sig P/E-talen på relativt låga nivåer och när utväxlingen i samband med lågkonjunkturens slut skedde var P/E-talen höga, vilket ifrågasätter huruvida P/E-talet egentligen är representativt under en lågkonjunktur samt dess förmåga att indikera på risk. Prognostiserat P/E-tal korrelerar väl med faktiskt P/E-tal men det faktiska fluktuerar i större grad. Marginalerna, som korrelerar negativt med vinstvärderingarna, uppvisar en laggningseffekt gentemot omsättningen. / Background: The years 86-97 are characterized as a period with many big reformations when the Swedish economy reached its bottom with three years in a row with negative GDP. The reaction from the Swedish stock market was substantial and Stockholmsbörsen went through a heavy bearish period. What was it that drove this stock return, the expected earnings or the valuation of them? What was the connection between the business cycle, earnings, valuations and stock return for this particular period? Aim: The aim of the thesis, on behalf of Melker Schörling AB, is to study stock return, company earnings and price-earnings ratios during a business cycle in order to analyse to what extent multiple expansion/contraction versus earnings growth have driven stock return for the different branches on Stockholmsbörsen. In a second stage we observe how estimates of branches’ price-earnings ratios and earnings correlate with the business cycle and what impact EBITDA and pre-tax profit margin have on valuation during the period. Based on the result of the thesis, contingent knowledge will be related to today’s economic situation. Completion: The data, consisting of figures and ratios, is collected from magazines and yearbooks of Affärsvärlden starting 1986 and ending 1997. With the help of these, relevant calculations have been made. Result: This study of Stockholmsbörsen during the years 86-97, where the consumer-goods index had the best performance, shows that the business cycle has no impact on the stock return. The earnings estimates drove the stock return during the economic slump of 91-93 while the valuations tempered the fall. Through the economic slump the valuations became higher due to the fact that the earnings estimates fell more than the stock return. The study also shows that the increased valuations consisted of overestimated earnings estimates. Before the stock market fell the price-earnings ratios were at relatively low levels and when bull period begun in the end of the economic slump the ratios were high. This fact questions whether the price-earnings ratio is representative during an economic slump and if the ratio indicates risk accurately. Forward PE correlates positively with current PE, but the current PE is more volatile. Margins, which correlate negatively with valuations, indicate a lagging effect towards sales growth.

<p>Bakgrund: Åren 86-97 kännetecknas som en period med flera stora reformer och en svensk konjunktur som nådde sin botten med tre år i följd av negativ BNP-tillväxt. Påtagligt var även reaktionen från Stockholmsbörsen som i samband med lågkonjunkturen upplevde en kraftig nedgång. Vad drev då denna avkastningsutveckling, vinsterna eller värderingarna av dessa? Hur såg sambandet ut mellan konjunktur, bolagsvinster, vinstvärderingar och börsutveckling för perioden?</p><p>Syfte: Syftet med denna uppsats, på uppdrag av Melker Schörling AB, är att studera avkastningsutveckling, bolagsvinster och P/E-multiplar över en konjunkturcykel för att analysera till vilken grad multipelexpansion/kontraktion kontra vinsttillväxt drivit avkastningen för olika branscher på Stockholmsbörsen.</p><p>I ett andra skede utreds huruvida prognoser för P/E-tal och branschvinster på Stockholmsbörsen korrelerat med konjunkturen samt även hur EBITDA- och vinstmarginaler inverkat på aktievärderingar under tidsperioden. Utifrån studiens resultat kommer eventuella lärdomar kopplas till dagens konjunkturella situation.</p><p>Genomförande: Insamlat datamaterial i form av siffror och nyckeltal utgår från Affärsvärldens tidsskrifter och årsböcker med början 1986 och slut 1997. Utifrån dessa har, för studien, relevanta beräkningar dessutom gjorts.</p><p>Resultat: Studien av Stockholmsbörsen 86-97, där handelsbranschen genomled konjunkturnedgången bäst, visar inte på att konjunkturen spelar roll för avkastningsutvecklingen. Vinstprognoserna drev avkastningen under lågkonjunkturen medan vinstvärderingarna dämpade nedgången. Genomgående ökade vinstvärderingarna under lågkonjunkturen till följd av att vinstprognoserna föll mer än kursen. Studien visar på att dessa ökade vinstvärderingar innehöll överskattade vinstförväntningar. Innan börsnedgången befann sig P/E-talen på relativt låga nivåer och när utväxlingen i samband med lågkonjunkturens slut skedde var P/E-talen höga, vilket ifrågasätter huruvida P/E-talet egentligen är representativt under en lågkonjunktur samt dess förmåga att indikera på risk. Prognostiserat P/E-tal korrelerar väl med faktiskt P/E-tal men det faktiska fluktuerar i större grad. Marginalerna, som korrelerar negativt med vinstvärderingarna, uppvisar en laggningseffekt gentemot omsättningen.</p> / <p>Background: The years 86-97 are characterized as a period with many big reformations when the Swedish economy reached its bottom with three years in a row with negative GDP. The reaction from the Swedish stock market was substantial and Stockholmsbörsen went through a heavy bearish period. What was it that drove this stock return, the expected earnings or the valuation of them? What was the connection between the business cycle, earnings, valuations and stock return for this particular period?</p><p>Aim: The aim of the thesis, on behalf of Melker Schörling AB, is to study stock return, company earnings and price-earnings ratios during a business cycle in order to analyse to what extent multiple expansion/contraction versus earnings growth have driven stock return for the different branches on Stockholmsbörsen.</p><p>In a second stage we observe how estimates of branches’ price-earnings ratios and earnings correlate with the business cycle and what impact EBITDA and pre-tax profit margin have on valuation during the period. Based on the result of the thesis, contingent knowledge will be related to today’s economic situation.</p><p>Completion: The data, consisting of figures and ratios, is collected from magazines and yearbooks of Affärsvärlden starting 1986 and ending 1997. With the help of these, relevant calculations have been made.</p><p>Result: This study of Stockholmsbörsen during the years 86-97, where the consumer-goods index had the best performance, shows that the business cycle has no impact on the stock return. The earnings estimates drove the stock return during the economic slump of 91-93 while the valuations tempered the fall. Through the economic slump the valuations became higher due to the fact that the earnings estimates fell more than the stock return. The study also shows that the increased valuations consisted of overestimated earnings estimates. Before the stock market fell the price-earnings ratios were at relatively low levels and when bull period begun in the end of the economic slump the ratios were high. This fact questions whether the price-earnings ratio is representative during an economic slump and if the ratio indicates risk accurately. Forward PE correlates positively with current PE, but the current PE is more volatile. Margins, which correlate negatively with valuations, indicate a lagging effect towards sales growth.</p>