Risk, risk analysis and decision-making are essential aspects of health care andmedicine, for patients as well as for physicians and for society as a whole, andthe concept of risk and risk analysis in decision-making has a long history. Theword risk has many different interpretations and has no commonly accepteddefinition. In this thesis, we shall let risk stand for the combination of randomor uncertain events with negative consequences for human health, life and/orwelfare and/or the environment together with some measures of the likelihoodof such events. We believe this is the dominant concept and understanding ofrisk, the risk being the likelihood or probability of an event followed by somenegative consequences or activities of that event. In this doctoral thesis, we focus on biostatistics, risks and risk analysis in thefield of medicine, a science which has been using methods from the area of riskanalysis for a long time. The seven papers (paper I - paper VII) presented inthis thesis, together with a general introduction to risk, risk analysis anddecision-making, will be used to illustrate and discuss risk analysis as a tool fordecision-making in the field of medicine. From my point a view, risk analysisin the field of medicine aims to reduce pain, raise the quality of life, reduce therisk of adverse events, compare cost efficiency between different treatmentregimes and prolong a healthy life. Based on results presented in the thesis, weconclude that biostatistics, risks and risk analysis used in the field of medicineare valuable methods for evaluation of hypotheses within the health care areaand a good basis for decision-making. / <p>QC 20100901</p>

The aim of this thesis is to analyse the risks of information technologies in the company Metalik Ltd. which balances on the boundary of small and medium enterprises. One part of this analysis is a preparation of the scale for estimation of the impacts, threats and vulnerabilities. Finally is drafted a register of actions which responds to IT risks which were identified in the frame of the thesis. The register is in compliance with the business plan of the company and its recent market position. The contribution of this thesis is in showing how the firm, which can represent the typical small or medium enterprises, works with IT risks. The principles of some correctional actions can be also generally related to this group of enterprises. The benefit specifically for the firm Metalik Ltd. is documentation for future work with the risks connected with the information technologies.

The main goal of this thesis is to create theoretical business plan of a company doing business on importing a specific product into the Czech Republic and selling it there. This plan is supposed to have chance to exist in real background as well and generate the profit. In the methodological section the author describes the way to create the business plan. In the practical part he describes it specifically. The author describes the planned venture, including the organizational structure and describes the product to which the business is based. The author analyzes the overall market and tries to predict the amount of sales over the subsequent years. Through the SWOT analysis the author describes the strengths and weaknesses of the project. The author suggests a marketing strategy, in which he deals with all parts of the marketing mix. In the financial analysis the author prepares the opening balance. He calculates costs and revenues; creates projected profit and loss account. In the cash flow part the author discovers cash flows expected. These financial calculations consider the upcoming three years. The first year the author calculates the development of three variants -- pessimistic, realistic and optimistic. The second and third year the author only considers the pessimistic variant. In conclusion, there is an evaluation of overall risks of the project.

This thesis deals with risk analysis and ensuring the OHS legislative compliance within the organization. The goal is to apply theoretical knowledge in the field of risk analysis and ensuring legislative compliance to a specific organization and identify the organization for all the risks, evaluate them in terms of likelihood and consequences, then determine the greatest risks and propose measures to reduce their effects. The method used in the identification of risks is especially the safety inspection, risk assessment is performed by a simplified point method.

The topic of the thesis is an evaluation of an investment project with application to a real investment project. The aim is to decide whether to realize the project or not with regard to the current and projected macroeconomic situation, tourism and particularly the results of financial indicators. The theoretical part focuses on the specifics of the investment decisions and the parameters entering into the investment evaluation. This part is also focused on different stages of the investment project and the methods used to evaluate the effectiveness of the investment. The theoretical part ends with a risk analysis. The practical part is dedicated to the fullfilment of the defined objectives. After the initial introduction to the investment project comes the analysis of the current and forecasted macroeconomic situation, the analysis of tourism and the project evaluation in terms of defined dynamic methods. The conclusion in the practical part includes a sensitivity analysis of the project on two major risk factors.

Crisis management is a dynamic science. This is particularly true for developing world countries like Kenya. The aim of this work is to contribute to the prevention or minimization of risks and possibly to manage their consequences within the project of the Czech medical facility Itibo in the southwestern part of Kenya. This facility, thanks to a group of enthusiasts and support of many people, helped tens of thousands of patients since 2005 who would otherwise not have access to health care. In the framework of the thesis, a risk analysis was elaborated based on a local survey, which was subsequently evaluated, and its results used to create a "Plan of preparedness for emergencies." The plan is a practically applicable tool for managing non-standard situations that occur relatively frequently in the project site. An essential part was the active involvement of the author in the actual functioning of the Itibo healthcare facility in the form of an internship. The main benefit of the work is a plan intended for health-educated persons, who mostly do not have knowledge in the field of crisis management. The benefit is also an insight into the issue of crisis management in the area of health care in another country, which is very different in most of its parameters.

Background: South Korea is one of the countries currently enforcing more strict emission standards for heavy-duty vehicles, as a result of the global push to restrict pollution. In addition, there has been recent scandals involving several well-established automotive companies manipulating emissions tests and not fulfilling regulations. This has resulted in the government increasing the pressure for companies to apply the correct certifications even further. For companies to sell vehicles on the South Korean market, the vehicles must be certified and approved by the government, known as homologation. This process partly involves self-certification, meaning that companies are responsible for applying the correct certification themselves. It is therefore of great importance to have structured and clear processes to mitigate risks of error-making, in order to avoid financial and legal repercussions. Purpose: The study aims to identify and analyze the risks in error-making. Therefore, the purpose is to understand and propose improvement actions to the current homologation processes at Scania Korea Group. Method: The thesis utilized a case study strategy with a descriptive approach to illustrate the process. An exploratory approach was used in combination to identify risks and provide improvement actions. Qualitative data in conjunction with theory around business process improvement were utilized to fulfill the purpose. Firstly, interviews and focus groups were conducted to map the process. Thereafter, a failure mode and effect criticality analysis(FMECA) was used to analyze the process. Lastly, improvement actions were decided based on best practices and benchmarking. Findings and recommendations: The homologation process contain many high severity risks such as certifying the incorrect truck specifications or not complying with regulations, due to not updating the certifications when product changes occur. Furthermore, government approvals incorporate a substantial part of the process lead-time. As such, it is concluded that quality is of utmost importance, both to decrease lead-time and minimize risks with detrimental consequences. The analysis showed evidence of lacking controls/gates in the process, which enables errors and incorrect applications to move through. Improvements regarding increased project structure, planning and communication within SKG were suggested. Further improvement points were an increased number of controls and more clear delegation of responsibility. Recommendations for future studies: We propose to further investigate the root-causes of the inherent risks in the process. Future studies should also look to gather additional data from other heavy-duty automotive companies in South Korea, since it could provide deeper and more generalizable results. Lastly, we recommend future research to utilize a quantitative research approach, providing more statistical evidence.

Thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Management in Finance and Investment Management in the Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, Wits Business School at the University of the Witwatersrand / This research project analyzed the relationship between bank risk taking, capital and operating efficiency in South African banks. The relationship between bank risk taking, capital and operating efficiency is one of the central topics in banking studies because of regulators’ and researchers’ quest to understand the determinants of bank risk taking. The research used a panel data set of top 4 South African banks for the period 2004 to 2013. The period under study includes the credit crisis which therefore introduces parameter instability with a known structural break or change point into the regression parameters. The research data was collected from financial statements of the sampled the banks to construct standard accounting measures of bank risk taking, capital adequacy and operating efficiency all of which were regressed using simultaneous equations in EViews. The regression results do not provide evidence of any relationship between risk taking and capital. The only statistically significant relationship is the inverse relationship between risk taking and efficiency. The finding that efficiency is negatively related to bank risk taking supports earlier research findings that bank risk taking is more pronounced in inefficient banks compared to efficient ones. It also supports the moral hazard hypothesis which posits that banks undertake more risk taking when faced with greater inefficiencies; and the “bad management” hypothesis which states declines in efficiency lead to increased risk taking. The regression results also do not provide evidence of a relationship between capital and efficiency: implying that capital and efficiency are not simultaneously determined. The results in this study oblige management and regulators to pay much attention to operating efficiency as a driver of bank risk taking. / MT2017

Les constructeurs automobiles fabriquant des systèmes de conduite automatisée ont besoin d’aborder les conséquences que ces systèmes peuvent avoir sur la sécurité routière. Notamment pour l’évaluation des gains de sécurité, la sécurisation des essais et l’analyse des accidents impliquant le véhicule autonome. Cependant, le cadre conceptuel actuel utilisé dans la sécurité routière peut ne pas être adapté pour l’analyse des changements et des nouvelles interactions introduits par l’automatisation du véhicule à travers toutes les échelles du système sociotechnique de transport routier.Le but de la thèse est d’appliquer une approche systémique fondée sur STAMP afin d'étudier les gains attendus du véhicule autonome en termes de sécurité routière, sécuriser les expérimentations et analyser les accidents impliquant ce type de véhicule, à travers toutes les échelles du système sociotechnique de transport routier.Afin de contribuer au calcul des gains du véhicule autonome sur la sécurité routière, la population cible d’un « highway pilot system» a été définie et des questions issue d’une analyse STPA (analyse des risques issue de STAMP) aidant à l’évaluation de l’efficacité du système ont été élaborées.Un cadre de sécurisation des expérimentations couvrant tous les niveaux du système a été mis en place au moyen d’une analyse STPA à deux échelles.Enfin, une méthode d’analyse des accidents impliquant un conducteur automatisé a été créé en intégrant des éléments issus de méthodes d’analyses des accidents de la route existantes et des éléments explicatifs développés spécialement à la méthode CAST (méthode d’analyse des accidents fondée sur STAMP). L’accident impliquant une Tesla en mai 2016 est le cas d’étude de cette nouvelle méthode, CASCAD.En conclusion, ces trois applications ont montré tout le potentiel d’une approche systémique fondée sur STAMP pour offrir un cadre conceptuel adapté à l’évaluation des conséquences sur la sécurité routière de la conduite automatisée. / As automakers develop automated driving systems, they must address the implications of such systems on road safety. Notably for the safety benefit assessment, trial safety and accident analysis. However, the existing conceptual framework in road safety may not be adapted to analyze the changes and new interactions introduced by vehicle automation at all the levels of the road transport sociotechnical system.The main objective of this thesis is to apply a systems theoretic approach based on STAMP to examine the safety benefit assessment, trial safety and accident analysis of automated driving across all the levels of the road transport sociotechnical system.This research first contributes to safety benefit assessment by estimating the target population of a highway pilot system and by generating questions derived from an STPA analysis (hazard analysis based on STAMP) to facilitate the evaluation of the influence of the highway pilot system on road safety.Next, this work establishes a framework to ensure trial safety across the macroscopic and microscopic levels of the vehicle trial system by structuring the outputs of two STPA analyses.Finally, this thesis integrates elements from existing crash analysis methods and newly developed guidance elements into CAST (an accident analysis method based on STAMP) to develop a new method for the accident analysis of crashes involving automated driving called CASCAD. The application of CASCAD was illustrated using the available information of the Tesla crash on May 2016.The three applications of this research show the potential of a STAMP-based approach to provide a suitable conceptual framework for the analysis of the implications of road safety on automated driving.

Conventional ecotoxicological tests (forced exposure) are an important tool when what is sought are the possible acute and chronic effects of environmental pollutants on each individual that is exposed. The disadvantage of this approach lies in the fact that the organisms are kept enclosed within containers of the same concentration for several hours and / or days. The forced exposure test has no ecological relevance when the modeled environment exhibits a contamination gradient and organisms can move along this gradient. In many aquatic ecosystems, it is common to observe a contamination gradient, with concentrations decreasing with distance from the discharge zone, so that organisms do not necessarily exhibit continuous and forced exposure to the contaminant. The objective of this work was to analyze how aquatic pollutants (e.g Triclosan, Bisphenol, Atrazine and Copper) influence the dispersion / habitat selection pattern of two species of fish: Poecilia reticulata and Danio rerio, using a static system (non-forced exposure) with several compartments, forming a gradient of contamination with the compound to be analyzed. All pollutants tested triggered an avoidance response in fish at environmentally relevant concentrations. The concentrations that caused avoidance on the organisms are lower than those that cause sub-lethal effects on aquatic organisms, including fish. We also find in one of our approaches the potential for the formation of a chemical barrier (habitat fragmentation) by the release of pollutants into the water bodies, reducing the migration potential of aquatic organisms. Finally, one of the most important findings is the interaction of the species with each other when exposed to a pollution gradient. In this case, the presence of one species interfered in the distribution of the other (reduction of the migration potential), when both were in the same system. Thus, the non-forced approach demonstrates to be a powerful tool in the evaluation of environmental risk, complementary to the traditional ecotoxicological tests / Os testes ecotoxicológicos convencionais (exposição forçada) são uma ferramenta importante quando o que se busca são os possíveis efeitos agudos e crônicos dos poluentes ambientais sobre cada indvíduo que é exposto. A desvantagem dessa abordagem está no fato de que os organismos são mantidos enclausurados dentro de recipientes com uma mesma concentração por várias horas e/ou dias. O teste de exposição forçada não tem relevância ecológica quando o ambiente modelado apresenta um gradiente de contaminação e os organismos podem se mover ao longo deste gradiente. Em muitos ecossistemas aquáticos, é comum observar um gradiente de contaminação, com as concentrações diminuindo com a distância da zona de descarga, de modo que os organismos não apresentam obrigatoriamente uma exposição contínua e forçada ao contaminante. Desta forma, este trabalho teve como objetivo a análise de como os poluentes aquáticos (e.g. Triclosan, Bisfenol, Atrazina e Cobre) influenciam o padrão de dispersão / seleção de habitat por duas espécies de peixes: Poecilia reticulate e Danio rerio, utilizando um sistema estático (não forçado) com vários compartimentos, formando um gradiente de contaminação com o composto a ser analisado. Todos os poluentes testados dispararam uma resposta de fuga nos peixes em concentrações ambientalmente relevantes. As concentrações que causaram a fuga dos organismos são menores do que aquelas que causam efeitos sub-letais em organismos aquáticos, incluindo peixes. Encontramos também em uma de nossas abordagens o potencial de formação de uma barreira quimica (fragmentação de habitat) pela liberação de poluentes nos corpos hídricos, reduzindo o potencial de migração dos organismos aquáticos. Por fim, um dos achados mais importantes está na interação das espécies entre si quando expostas a um gradiente de poluição. Nesse caso, a presença de uma espécie interferiu na distribuição da outra (redução do potencial de migração), quando ambas se encontravam no mesmo sistema. Sendo assim, a abordagem não forçada demonstra ser uma ferramenta poderosa na avaliação de risco ambiental, complementar aos testes ecotoxicológicos tradicionais