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<p><strong>Authors:</strong></p><p>Waqas Mehmood, Yasir Liaqat, Nauman Iftikhar, Raza Syed Hassan</p><p><strong>Tutor:</strong></p><p>Petra Andersson</p><p><strong>Examiner:</strong></p><p>Helena Forslund</p><p><strong>Title:</strong></p><p>Managing Supply Chain Risks in Fresh Food Items – a case study on Makro-Habib Pakistan Limited – a wholesales chain in Pakistan</p><p><strong>Background:</strong></p><p>In today’s era, businesses are facing various types of risks which can be legal/political, social, operational/technical, natural and economic in nature. For this purpose, companies need to have effective risk management process to mitigate these risks. Especially companies like Makro-Habib who heavily rely on effective and efficient supply chain can gain competitive advantage if they manage the risks within their supply chain network.</p><p><strong>Research Questions:</strong></p><p>RQ-1: What are the most significant supply chain risks in fresh food items at Makro-Habib?</p><p>RQ-2: How can significant supply chain risks in fresh food items of Makro-Habib be mitigated through proposed action plan?</p><p><strong>Purpose:</strong></p><p>The purpose of this thesis is to contribute to the knowledge on how to manage risks in the fresh food supply chain</p><p><strong>Method:</strong></p><p>The empirical data and the conclusions which are drawn from it are based on qualitative facts that are gathered through interviews and questionnaires. The results/conclusions drawn from responses of the interviews of fresh food section heads of Makro-Habib and the literature. This thesis is written from a positivistic perspective with a deductive approach.</p><p><strong>Conclusion:</strong></p><p>Various risk mitigation strategies at strategic, operational and visibility level are suggested like coordination, information sharing, training, monitoring to counter the most significant fresh food supply chain risks which are wrong ordering, contamination of products and FIFO (loose practice).</p>

This study is directed toward an investigation of the longer term aggregate consequences that arise from producer behavior in a production environment characterized by risk and uncertainty. In particular, the papers included herein examine circumstances under which individual actions may result in adverse long term consequences in the aggregate market, even though they are based on rational decision-making from the producer's point of view. The research is conducted in two distinct components, resulting in the presentation of two separate manuscripts. In the first paper a single product market model is developed with producer actions characterized by risk averse behavior. Individuals are assumed to maximize the expected utility of profits according to a mean-variance specification. Using an analytical framework, it is determined that risk averse actions can increase aggregate risk levels once market adjustment is completed. Aggregate market risk is measured by the change in the expected value and variance of consumers' and producers' surplus. Market effects are found to depend on the relative elasticity of demand and the price expectation formulated by the producer. The second paper explores the issue of declining soil productivity from a social perspective. Using a simulation model developed for a generalized agricultural market, the potential long term impacts of erosion on crop prices and on resulting measures of social welfare are examined. It is found that in the aggregate producers with erosive land are generally better of without erosion control than with erosion control, at least for the first few generations. In the long run however, these producers are significantly worse off as the effects of erosion outweigh any technology improvements. / Graduation date: 1987

The Federal Crop Insurance program is a management tool which is available to U.S. farmers and which is designed to protect them against low yields arising from natural disasters. Since the program is optional in nature, its provisions cannot be detrimental to a rationally behaving farmer. This work analyzes but goes beyond the private benefits of the Federal Crop Insurance program to farmers and represents a qualitative and quantitative attempt at investigating the implications of the availability of the program on risk-taking behavior and social welfare. Analytically, a simple model of the allocation of land among two crops (one safe and the other risky in the yield) is used along with the behavioral hypothesis of expected utility maximization. It is indicated that a subsidized program will, in general, induce greater risk-taking behavior. The impact of the program on crop-mix is, however, ambiguous when the expected insurance indemnities fall short of the premium paid. Given insurance availability, however, it is demonstrated that, under some reasonable assumptions about farmers' risk preferences, a premium subsidy will tend to induce greater risk taking. A major portion of the empirical work, which is undertaken within an expected value of income-variance of income framework, relates to the estimation of farmers' risk preferences on the basis of actual crop-mix data for individual farms in Arizona and estimated subjective distributions about prices, yields and costs of production. The estimation of the subjective distribution of prices is based on futures as well as cash prices. Given the risk aversion coefficient estimates for a sample of thirteen farmers, predicted crop-mixes are then obtained under the cases of insurance availability and no insurance. Results of the empirical study suggest that the Federal Crop Insurance program (in its pre-1980 version at least) does not have a significant impact on crop-mix. Finally, using the Arrow-Lind criterion of welfare assessment under uncertainty, the study casts doubt on the social desirability of the Federal Crop Insurance program.

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Ph.D., Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, 2009 / Epidemiological trends suggest that obesity is becoming a major public health problem. Although obesity contributes toward cardiovascular risk by promoting the development of hypertension, dyslipidaemia and diabetes mellitus (conventional risk factors), there is increasing evidence to suggest that excess adiposity may increase risk through effects on cardiovascular target organs that are independent of conventional risk factors. These obesity-induced effects may be produced by mediating damage and dysfunction of large vessels and the heart, and by promoting the development of cardiac hypertrophy. However, the independent effect of excess adiposity on large vessels has not been confirmed in all studies. Moreover, whether the impact of excess adiposity on cardiac hypertrophy or cardiac damage and dysfunction is dependent on an interaction with blood pressure (BP) is uncertain. In the present thesis I addressed these questions. Before evaluating these questions I first identified the preferred clinical index of adiposity when predicting BP. In this regard, some, but not all studies support the notion that indexes of central adiposity (waist circumference or waist-to-hip ratio) are the preferred predictors of conventional BP over indexes of general (body mass index) or subcutaneous (skin-fold thickness) adiposity. Moreover, to my knowledge no study has been conducted in a large study sample to evaluate whether indexes of central adiposity are the preferred predictors of ambulatory BP, a measure of BP that is more closely associated with cardiovascular events than conventional BP. In the first study conducted in a relatively large, randomly selected population sample (n=300) with a high prevalence of excess adiposity (65%), I demonstrated that waist circumference is the only clinical index of adiposity that is associated with an increased conventional and ambulatory systolic and diastolic BP, independent of other indexes of adiposity. With regards to the effects of excess adiposity on large arteries, there is inconsistency in the reports demonstrating relations between indexes of adiposity and large artery dysfunction (arterial stiffness) independent of factors such as BP, heart rate and diabetes mellitus. As convincing independent relations between clinical indexes of adiposity and arterial stiffness have been noted in older, but not in younger populations, I hypothesized that age may determine whether excess adiposity promotes increases in arterial stiffness independent of confounders. Indeed, in 508 randomly selected persons from a population sample with a high prevalence of excess adiposity (~63% overweight or obese), I was able to show that age markedly influenced the independent relationship between indexes of central adiposity and an index of large artery stiffness in women but not in men after adjusting for confounders. The adjusted effect of indexes of central obesity on arterial stiffness was ~5-fold higher in older than in younger women. With respect to the impact of excess adiposity on cardiac growth, although severe obesity is associated with an enhanced impact of BP on left ventricular mass (LVM), there is uncertainty as to whether the same effects occur in milder forms of excess adiposity, data confounded by the high prevalence of participants receiving antihypertensive therapy in previous studies. In the present thesis I demonstrated in a randomly recruited population sample of 398 participants with a high prevalence of mild-to-moderate obesity and hypertension (~41%), but in whom antihypertensive use was limited (~17%), that adiposity is indeed associated with an enhanced impact of conventional and ambulatory BP or arterial stiffness on LVM index and wall thickness independent of additional conventional risk factors. With regards to the impact of obesity on cardiac function, although obesity is a risk factor for heart failure independent of other conventional cardiovascular risk factors, whether this effect occurs through changes in cardiac systolic chamber function is uncertain. In the present thesis I provide the first evidence to show in an animal model of genetic iv hypertension and dietary-induced obesity, that dietary-induced obesity promotes the progression from compensated cardiac hypertrophy to cardiac pump dysfunction without promoting hyperglycaemia. This effect was attributed to alterations in both intrinsic myocardial systolic dysfunction and cardiac dilatation, effects that were associated with excessive cardiomyocyte apoptosis and activation of enzymes that promote myocardial collagen degradation. Therefore in the present thesis I provide evidence to support the notion that waist circumference should hypertension and dietary-induced obesity, that dietary-induced obesity promotes the progression from compensated cardiac hypertrophy to cardiac pump dysfunction without promoting hyperglycaemia. This effect was attributed to alterations in both intrinsic myocardial systolic dysfunction and cardiac dilatation, effects that were associated with excessive cardiomyocyte apoptosis and activation of enzymes that promote myocardial collagen degradation. Therefore in the present thesis I provide evidence to support the notion that waist circumference should be measured when predicting BP changes, that excess adiposity does indeed decrease large vessel function independent of conventional risk factors, but that this effect is age-dependent, and that the deleterious effects of excess adiposity on cardiac hypertrophy and cardiac pump function are indeed dependent on an interaction with BP, but not other confounders.

<p><strong>Date</strong>: 30^th May 2010</p><p><strong>Authors</strong>: Rajia Rafique, Furhan Mehmood</p><p><strong>Tutor:</strong> Dr. Michael Le Duc, Dr. Deepak Gupta</p><p><strong>Title:</strong> Management of Operational Risks related to Information Security in Financial Organizations</p><p><strong>Introduction: </strong>Information security is very significant for organizations, especially for financial organizations where customer information and their satisfaction are considered the most important assets for financial organizations. Therefore customer information must be sustained from information security breaches in order to satisfy customers. Financial organizations use their customer’s information several times a day to deal with different operations. These operations contain several types of risks. Operational risks related to information security are becoming sensational for financial organizations. Financial organizations concentrate to reduce the exposure of operational risk related to information security because these risks can affect the business to a great extent. Financial organizations need such policies and techniques which can be used to reduce the exposure of operational risk and to enhance information security. Several authors discuss about several types of operational risk related to information security, and several authors discuss about the techniques to avoid these risks in order to enhance information security.</p><p><strong>Problem:</strong> Investigate the concept of Operational Risks related to Information Security and how it is perceived in Financial Organization?<strong><em> </em></strong></p><p><strong>Purpose: </strong>The aspiration of writing this report is to describe and analyze operational risks related to information security in financial organizations and then to present some suggestions in form of polices or techniques which can be used by financial organizations to enhance their information security.</p><p><strong>Method:</strong> Since the type of our thesis is Qualitative based, therefore exploratory research approach is used to carry out research. Authors tried to use secondary source of information as well as primary source of information in order to get maximum knowledge about the topic and to come up with maximum possible output.</p><p><strong>Target Audience</strong></p><p>The target audience in our mind for this paper consists of both, academic readers and professionals who have interest and some knowledge about information security and operational risks. Target audience for this research work includes professionals, academic readers and both investigated organizations (NCCPL and CDC).</p><p><strong>Conclusion</strong></p><p>By critically analyzing the literature written by various authors and the worthy information provided by our primary sources gave us the opportunity to develop a solution to keep the operations secure from risks and to fix the current problems related to information security. We found that there are different types of operational risks related to information security which can affect the business of financial organizations and there are various techniques which can be used by financial organizations to solve the current issue related to operational risks in order to enhance information security. It was also found that top management in financial organizations is interested in issues about information security operational risk and they showed their keen interest in adopting new effective techniques.</p><p><strong>Keywords:</strong> Information Security, Information Security Risks, Operational Risks, Operational Risk Management, Operational Risks in Financial Organizations.</p>

Authors: Waqas Mehmood, Yasir Liaqat, Nauman Iftikhar, Raza Syed Hassan Tutor: Petra Andersson Examiner: Helena Forslund Title: Managing Supply Chain Risks in Fresh Food Items – a case study on Makro-Habib Pakistan Limited – a wholesales chain in Pakistan Background: In today’s era, businesses are facing various types of risks which can be legal/political, social, operational/technical, natural and economic in nature. For this purpose, companies need to have effective risk management process to mitigate these risks. Especially companies like Makro-Habib who heavily rely on effective and efficient supply chain can gain competitive advantage if they manage the risks within their supply chain network. Research Questions: RQ-1: What are the most significant supply chain risks in fresh food items at Makro-Habib? RQ-2: How can significant supply chain risks in fresh food items of Makro-Habib be mitigated through proposed action plan? Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to contribute to the knowledge on how to manage risks in the fresh food supply chain Method: The empirical data and the conclusions which are drawn from it are based on qualitative facts that are gathered through interviews and questionnaires. The results/conclusions drawn from responses of the interviews of fresh food section heads of Makro-Habib and the literature. This thesis is written from a positivistic perspective with a deductive approach. Conclusion: Various risk mitigation strategies at strategic, operational and visibility level are suggested like coordination, information sharing, training, monitoring to counter the most significant fresh food supply chain risks which are wrong ordering, contamination of products and FIFO (loose practice).