The goal of master thesis Afghanistan as an insulator of regional complexes? Sectoral analysis of Afghan security was to analyze security of Afghanistan based on sectors and from the viewpoint of Regional security complex theory developed by Barry Buzan and Ole Wæver. The purpose of the thesis was to review categorization of Afghanistan as an insulator and identify factors which undermine his status as such. Afghanistan's location is very much unique because it lies among three different regional security complexes - Central Asia, The Middle East, and South Asia. The analysis was conducted through combination of a) discourse analysis of statements and speeches of president Ashraf Ghani and CEO Abdullah Abdullah (2014 - ) and added with information from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and b) material relations in regions, such as trade routes, military aid etc. and c) history. Analysis is based on military, political, and economic sectors. The discursive analysis pays attention to the perception of Afghanistan on itself with focus on institutional discourse and broader debate in the English-speaking afghan media.

This qualitative study explores the application of deterrence strategies by the United States and Norway in the Arctic. Using the Regional Security Complex Theory to understand complex interactions in the region, the study finds that the countries have differing perspectives and strategies. The US emphasizes global security interests and employs a new concept of integrated deterrence (including integration efforts of allies), focusing on power projection with a punishing nature. Norway adopts a more defensive deterrence by denial, recognizing the link between the Baltic Sea and the Arctic (High North), aiming to avoid significant disruptions through horizontal escalation. These differences in strategies and perspectives can lead to tensions and potential conflicts in strategic agendas. The study also suggests supplementing the theory with transregional security complexes to enhance understanding at the regional level. In conclusion, this research sheds light on the dynamics of deterrence strategies in the Arctic and their implications for regional stability.

<p>This thesis attempts to assess the security aspect of the Barcelona Process (Process), or so called Euro-Mediterranean Partnership (EMP) within the theoretical framework of new regionalism and the Copenhagen School (Security complex theory) which agrees with neo/realism, neo-liberal institutionalism and constructivism in some aspects. The end of the Cold War broadened the security agenda and new security concerns emerged. Actually, most of the so- called security threats are not new, but the perception of them by the states has changed with globalization which increased the interconnectedness and density of the interaction. Global challenges have made states more vulnerable so appreciated the cooperative interaction at regional level. Comprehensive and cooperative security approaches gained importance and led regional security partnership among states. The construction of Euro-Mediterranean security partnership is one case stemming from the high level of interdependence between the European and the Mediterranean countries. The historical ties, economic dependency, geographical proximity increased the EU’s interest towards the Mediterranean. While new regionalism enables to grasp systemic factors in the Process, the Copenhagen School permits to understand security partnership at the regional level. The rise of illegal immigration flows and religious fundamentalism in the Mediterranean as well as tension in the Middle East conflict, the Iraqi War, and terrorist attacks to the US, Algeria and recently Turkey appreciated the importance of the EMP policy and security cooperation so make this study more crucial. </p><p>This study showed that the security challenges in five sectors of the security defined by the Copenhagen School are observable in the EMP’s case. Both military and non-military concerns threaten the stability and prosperity in the Mediterranean Basin. The three baskets of the EMP depict its comprehensive security approach. Having made an overview of the Barcelona Process, the thesis evaluated the security challenges in general and the thematic areas of concerns in depth. Since security cannot be defined without reference to the perceptions and security cultures of the actors, the study examined the perceptions and security cultures in the EMP. </p><p>The evaluation of the EMP showed that the EMP has shown certain developments on the way for the security cooperation. However, it could not produce tangible results due to the fundamental shortcomings categorized as inter and intra-institutional incoherence, definitional/perceptional problems and multi- actor involvement in the region. The lack of institutional structures, asymmetrical relations among partners, unbalanced distribution of powers and lack of commitment of the EU are crucial problems. On the basis of all problems lie the gap between the perceptions and security culture of Europe and the Arab world. Thus, this thesis emphasizes the enhancement of inter- subjective understanding and cultural dialogue in order to improve trust and interaction among partners. The EMP is on right track to build zone of peace in the Basin, but it requires longue durée to achieve this.</p>

<p>Uppsatsen har syftat till att belysa Sveriges närområde ur ett säkerhetspolitiskt perspektiv och samtidigt finna faktorer som påverkat Sveriges säkerhetspolitiska rollval. Vidare ämnade uppsatsen att förklara, det vill säga hitta orsaksförklaringar till varför den säkerhetspolitiska miljön i Sveriges närområde ser ut som den gör. Då uppsatsen är att se som teorikonsumerande har svaren sökts genom vald teori som utgår från en regional säkerhetspolitisk analys. Vidare har även ansatser gjort ur Nils Andréns säkerhetspolitiska struktur. De teoretiska ansatserna har sedan använts som analysmodell där fyra nivåer har applicerats på empirin. Dessa har sedan använts för att förklara Sveriges säkerhetspolitiska rollval under två olika epoker. Uppsatsen har dessutom besvarat vilken roll ett nordiskt försvars och säkerhetspolitiskt samarbete får för stabiliteten i Sveriges närområde.</p><p>Svaren till Sveriges säkerhetspolitiska rollval går att finna på nationell, regional och global nivå. Sedan kalla krigets slut har de säkerhetspolitiska förutsättningarna förändrats drastiskt vilket i sin tur medfört till en omprövning av säkerhetspolitiken. Idag har Sverige betydligt större rörlighet då två supermakter inte längre involverar sig i jordens alla hörn. Av den anledningen har Sverige idag involverat sig i säkerhetspolitiskt samarbete som inryms under EU, Nato och även det nordiska samarbetet. Sammantaget går det att konstatera att det nordiska samarbetet är en viktig komponent till stabiliteten i Sveriges närområde och får dessutom ekonomiska och operativa fördelar, då försvaret blir en allt mindre prioriterad verksamhet.</p> / <p>This project aims to illuminate the surroundings of Sweden trough a security policy perspective and thereby find factors which have had an impact on Sweden. Further on the intention is also to explain the immediate surroundings of Sweden in terms of security and find causes to why it looks like it does. This essay has found its answer trough a theory which uses a regional security perspective. The purpose of this essay has also been to describe the foundations of security policy, which has been done trough the security policy structure made by the author Nils Andrén. Furthermore the theory has been applied to the fact presented in the essay.</p><p> The regional security theory has developed an analyze model with four levels, which is brought in to this paper. There has also been a purpose to find out how the Nordic defence co-operation can be used in a sense to maintain a stabilized environment in the surroundings of Sweden. The answer to the first question is to be found in three different levels, domestic, regional and global. There are always an interaction between these levels, whereby there are different answers to been sought. Since the days after the cold war the security policy conditions have changed rapidly which have made an impact on the Swedish security policy. Today we can se a considerable moveability in the European region. This is a gist of a new world order, when we don’t expect two superpowers intruding in every corner and by that reason Sweden are now involved in several military co-operation. Finaly it can be said that this essay have made the conclusion that a Nordic co-operation is vital for the stability in the region of north Europe.</p>

This thesis attempts to assess the security aspect of the Barcelona Process (Process), or so called Euro-Mediterranean Partnership (EMP) within the theoretical framework of new regionalism and the Copenhagen School (Security complex theory) which agrees with neo/realism, neo-liberal institutionalism and constructivism in some aspects. The end of the Cold War broadened the security agenda and new security concerns emerged. Actually, most of the so- called security threats are not new, but the perception of them by the states has changed with globalization which increased the interconnectedness and density of the interaction. Global challenges have made states more vulnerable so appreciated the cooperative interaction at regional level. Comprehensive and cooperative security approaches gained importance and led regional security partnership among states. The construction of Euro-Mediterranean security partnership is one case stemming from the high level of interdependence between the European and the Mediterranean countries. The historical ties, economic dependency, geographical proximity increased the EU’s interest towards the Mediterranean. While new regionalism enables to grasp systemic factors in the Process, the Copenhagen School permits to understand security partnership at the regional level. The rise of illegal immigration flows and religious fundamentalism in the Mediterranean as well as tension in the Middle East conflict, the Iraqi War, and terrorist attacks to the US, Algeria and recently Turkey appreciated the importance of the EMP policy and security cooperation so make this study more crucial. This study showed that the security challenges in five sectors of the security defined by the Copenhagen School are observable in the EMP’s case. Both military and non-military concerns threaten the stability and prosperity in the Mediterranean Basin. The three baskets of the EMP depict its comprehensive security approach. Having made an overview of the Barcelona Process, the thesis evaluated the security challenges in general and the thematic areas of concerns in depth. Since security cannot be defined without reference to the perceptions and security cultures of the actors, the study examined the perceptions and security cultures in the EMP. The evaluation of the EMP showed that the EMP has shown certain developments on the way for the security cooperation. However, it could not produce tangible results due to the fundamental shortcomings categorized as inter and intra-institutional incoherence, definitional/perceptional problems and multi- actor involvement in the region. The lack of institutional structures, asymmetrical relations among partners, unbalanced distribution of powers and lack of commitment of the EU are crucial problems. On the basis of all problems lie the gap between the perceptions and security culture of Europe and the Arab world. Thus, this thesis emphasizes the enhancement of inter- subjective understanding and cultural dialogue in order to improve trust and interaction among partners. The EMP is on right track to build zone of peace in the Basin, but it requires longue durée to achieve this.

Uppsatsen har syftat till att belysa Sveriges närområde ur ett säkerhetspolitiskt perspektiv och samtidigt finna faktorer som påverkat Sveriges säkerhetspolitiska rollval. Vidare ämnade uppsatsen att förklara, det vill säga hitta orsaksförklaringar till varför den säkerhetspolitiska miljön i Sveriges närområde ser ut som den gör. Då uppsatsen är att se som teorikonsumerande har svaren sökts genom vald teori som utgår från en regional säkerhetspolitisk analys. Vidare har även ansatser gjort ur Nils Andréns säkerhetspolitiska struktur. De teoretiska ansatserna har sedan använts som analysmodell där fyra nivåer har applicerats på empirin. Dessa har sedan använts för att förklara Sveriges säkerhetspolitiska rollval under två olika epoker. Uppsatsen har dessutom besvarat vilken roll ett nordiskt försvars och säkerhetspolitiskt samarbete får för stabiliteten i Sveriges närområde. Svaren till Sveriges säkerhetspolitiska rollval går att finna på nationell, regional och global nivå. Sedan kalla krigets slut har de säkerhetspolitiska förutsättningarna förändrats drastiskt vilket i sin tur medfört till en omprövning av säkerhetspolitiken. Idag har Sverige betydligt större rörlighet då två supermakter inte längre involverar sig i jordens alla hörn. Av den anledningen har Sverige idag involverat sig i säkerhetspolitiskt samarbete som inryms under EU, Nato och även det nordiska samarbetet. Sammantaget går det att konstatera att det nordiska samarbetet är en viktig komponent till stabiliteten i Sveriges närområde och får dessutom ekonomiska och operativa fördelar, då försvaret blir en allt mindre prioriterad verksamhet. / This project aims to illuminate the surroundings of Sweden trough a security policy perspective and thereby find factors which have had an impact on Sweden. Further on the intention is also to explain the immediate surroundings of Sweden in terms of security and find causes to why it looks like it does. This essay has found its answer trough a theory which uses a regional security perspective. The purpose of this essay has also been to describe the foundations of security policy, which has been done trough the security policy structure made by the author Nils Andrén. Furthermore the theory has been applied to the fact presented in the essay.  The regional security theory has developed an analyze model with four levels, which is brought in to this paper. There has also been a purpose to find out how the Nordic defence co-operation can be used in a sense to maintain a stabilized environment in the surroundings of Sweden. The answer to the first question is to be found in three different levels, domestic, regional and global. There are always an interaction between these levels, whereby there are different answers to been sought. Since the days after the cold war the security policy conditions have changed rapidly which have made an impact on the Swedish security policy. Today we can se a considerable moveability in the European region. This is a gist of a new world order, when we don’t expect two superpowers intruding in every corner and by that reason Sweden are now involved in several military co-operation. Finaly it can be said that this essay have made the conclusion that a Nordic co-operation is vital for the stability in the region of north Europe.

China’s military modernization has allowed it to take a more assertive position on the territorial disputes it currently has with Japan and its Southeast Asian neighbors. The South China Sea (SCS) dispute is a clear example. Meanwhile, Japan is normalizing its military status to play a more proactive security role in the region. Japan’s normalization process has been greatly influenced by China’s growing military capabilities as it fears that China could pose a threat to its sea lanes of communications. Although Japan does not have territorial claims in the SCS, it regards the SCS as a strategically vital area. It is this particular concern that has brought Japan into the current territorial disputes in the SCS. This thesis analyzes how Japan has tried to forge partnerships with Southeast Asian countries in the form of foreign aid and the provision of military equipment and training that can potentially offset China’s assertiveness.

Submitted by Elesbão Santiago Neto (neto10uepb@cche.uepb.edu.br) on 2016-09-15T18:29:20Z No. of bitstreams: 1 PDF - Mariana Preta Oliveira de Lyra.pdf: 899469 bytes, checksum: 5571c8139bcd48736cafd6a9ccc83188 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-09-15T18:29:20Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 PDF - Mariana Preta Oliveira de Lyra.pdf: 899469 bytes, checksum: 5571c8139bcd48736cafd6a9ccc83188 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-02-07 / CAPES / This study analyzes how the issue of drug trafficking is incorporated into the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) agenda. The analysis is based on the theoretical framework presented by the Copenhagen School of security studies, specifically Regional Security Complex Theory and (se) Securitization Theory (BUZAN et al, 1998). Thus, there are the following main arguments: South America Regional Security Complex has been going through a period of transition, emerging from a schema without centrality of power to a model centered on a regional power, Brazil; and UNASUR, through three thematic councils (the South American Defense Council, the South American Council for the Global Drug Problem and the South American Council on Citizen Security, Justice and Coordination against the Organized Delinquency), initiated the process of desecuritization of drug trafficking at the regional level. Importantly, the analysis developed in this work is related to the normative framework of UNASUR, since it is a young organization and it is still under construction. Nevertheless, even in the absence of empirical material to harmonize policies and practices, we reaffirm the value of examining the normative level of any international organization. Initially, we conducted a detailed analysis of the ideas of the Copenhagen School, nearing its premises to the South American reality, however, without neglecting its analytical limitations. Regarding the issue of drug trafficking, we drew up an overview of its process of securitization during the Cold War, as well as the detailing of the international drug control regime, indicating the main implementers and supporters of drug policy in the international system. Also, we tried to present the South American reality regarding the drug trafficking, drawing a parallel between the U.S. policy, major external player, and the impact on the management of the issue in South America. In sequence, we analyzed the normative arrangement of UNASUR regarding the theme, highlighting the work performed by the South American Defense Council, the South American Council for the Global Drug Problem and the South American Council on Citizen Security, Justice and Coordination against the Organized Delinquency. Finally, we presented a parallel between intentions and normative of UNASUR and the actions and guidelines of the U.S. drug policy perpetrated during the last 50 years in the region. The Union of South American Nations, therefore, has advanced in discussing the problem of drug trafficking in the region, seeking to expand the approach to the topic while presenting itself as an alternative to the U.S. militaristic model. Thus, we observe that the continuity and consolidation of policies designed by UNASUR may lead to the formation of a South American regime for the global drug problem, which may be more comprehensive and may achieve better results for regional security. / A presente dissertação analisa como a problemática do narcotráfico é incorporada à agenda da União de Nações Sul-Americanas (Unasul). A análise desenvolvida fundamenta-se no arcabouço teórico apresentado pela Escola de Copenhague, mais especificamente a Teoria dos Complexos Regionais de Segurança e a Teoria da (de) Securitização (BUZAN et al, 1998). Dessa forma, têm-se os seguintes argumentos centrais: o Complexo Regional de Segurança da América do Sul passa por um momento de transição, saindo de um esquema sem centralidade de poder para um modelo centrado em uma potência regional, o Brasil; e a Unasul, por meio de três conselhos temáticos (Conselho de Defesa Sul-Americano, Conselho Sul-Americano Sobre o Problema Mundial das Drogas e Conselho Sul-Americano em Matéria de Segurança Cidadã, Justiça e Coordenação contra a Delinquência Transnacional Organizada), iniciou o processo de desecuritização da problemática do tráfico de drogas em nível regional. É importante destacar que a análise desenvolvida nesta dissertação recaiu no âmbito normativo da Unasul, visto que se trata de uma organização jovem e ainda em construção. Entretanto, mesmo na ausência de material empírico que harmonize diretrizes e práticas, reafirma-se o valor do exame do nível normativo de qualquer organização internacional. Inicialmente, conduziu-se uma profunda análise das ideias da Escola de Copenhague, aproximando suas premissas da realidade sul-americana, no entanto, sem negligenciar suas limitações analíticas. No tocante à temática do narcotráfico, traçou-se um panorama do processo de securitização da problemática durante a Guerra Fria, bem como o detalhamento do regime internacional antidrogas, apontando os principais incentivadores e implementadores da política antidrogas no sistema internacional. Também, buscou-se apresentar a realidade sul-americana quanto ao tema, fazendo um paralelo entre a política estadunidense, grande player externo, e o impacto no gerenciamento da questão na América do Sul. Em seguida, analisou-se o arranjo normativo da União de Nações Sul-Americana com relação à problemática, destacando a atuação do Conselho de Defesa Sul-Americano, do Conselho Sul-Americano sobre o Problema Mundial das Drogas e o Conselho Sul-Americano em Matéria de Segurança Cidadã, Justiça e Coordenação contra a Deliquência Organizada Transnacional. Por fim, realizou-se um paralelo entre as intenções e normativas da Unasul com as ações e diretrizes da política antidrogas norte-americana perpetrada nos últimos quase 50 anos na região. A União de Nações Sul-Americanas, portanto, tem avançado nas discussões sobre a problemática do narcotráfico na região, buscando ampliar a abordagem do tema ao mesmo tempo em que se apresenta como uma alternativa ao modelo militarista estadunidense. Dessa forma, vislumbra-se que a continuidade e consolidação das políticas pretendidas pela Unasul podem levar a constituição de um regime sul-americano para o problema mundial das drogas, que seja mais integral e que possa obter melhores resultados para a segurança regional.

Submitted by Elesbão Santiago Neto (neto10uepb@cche.uepb.edu.br) on 2018-05-03T19:20:13Z No. of bitstreams: 1 PDF - Mariana Preta Oliveira de Lyra.pdf: 38679325 bytes, checksum: 88f0e3bf9c14db4acd28916991abc29d (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-05-03T19:20:13Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 PDF - Mariana Preta Oliveira de Lyra.pdf: 38679325 bytes, checksum: 88f0e3bf9c14db4acd28916991abc29d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-02-07 / CAPES / This study analyzes how the issue of drug trafficking is incorporated into the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) agenda. The analysis is based on the theoretical framework presented by the Copenhagen School of security studies, specifically Regional Security Complex Theory and (se) Securitization Theory (BUZAN et al, 1998). Thus, there are the following main arguments: South America Regional Security Complex has been going through a period of transition, emerging from a schema without centrality of power to a model centered on a regional power, Brazil; and UNASUR, through three thematic councils (the South American Defense Council, the South American Council for the Global Drug Problem and the South American Council on Citizen Security, Justice and Coordination against the Organized Delinquency), initiated the process of desecuritization of drug trafficking at the regional level. Importantly, the analysis developed in this work is related to the normative framework of UNASUR, since it is a young organization and it is still under construction. Nevertheless, even in the absence of empirical material to harmonize policies and practices, we reaffirm the value of examining the normative level of any international organization. Initially, we conducted a detailed analysis of the ideas of the Copenhagen School, nearing its premises to the South American reality, however, without neglecting its analytical limitations. Regarding the issue of drug trafficking, we drew up an overview of its process of securitization during the Cold War, as well as the detailing of the international drug control regime, indicating the main implementers and supporters of drug policy in the international system. Also, we tried to present the South American reality regarding the drug trafficking, drawing a parallel between the U.S. policy, major external player, and the impact on the management of the issue in South America. In sequence, we analyzed the normative arrangement of UNASUR regarding the theme, highlighting the work performed by the South American Defense Council, the South American Council for the Global Drug Problem and the South American Council on Citizen Security, Justice and Coordination against the Organized Delinquency. Finally, we presented a parallel between intentions and normative of UNASUR and the actions and guidelines of the U.S. drug policy perpetrated during the last 50 years in the region. The Union of South American Nations, therefore, has advanced in discussing the problem of drug trafficking in the region, seeking to expand the approach to the topic while presenting itself as an alternative to the U.S. militaristic model. Thus, we observe that the continuity and consolidation of policies designed by UNASUR may lead to the formation of a South American regime for the global drug problem, which may be more comprehensive and may achieve better results for regional security. / A presente dissertação analisa como a problemática do narcotráfico é incorporada à agenda da União de Nações Sul-Americanas (Unasul). A análise desenvolvida fundamenta-se no arcabouço teórico apresentado pela Escola de Copenhague, mais especificamente a Teoria dos Complexos Regionais de Segurança e a Teoria da (de) Securitização (BUZAN et al, 1998). Dessa forma, têm-se os seguintes argumentos centrais: o Complexo Regional de Segurança da América do Sul passa por um momento de transição, saindo de um esquema sem centralidade de poder para um modelo centrado em uma potência regional, o Brasil; e a Unasul, por meio de três conselhos temáticos (Conselho de Defesa Sul-Americano, Conselho Sul-Americano Sobre o Problema Mundial das Drogas e Conselho Sul-Americano em Matéria de Segurança Cidadã, Justiça e Coordenação contra a Delinquência Transnacional Organizada), iniciou o processo de desecuritização da problemática do tráfico de drogas em nível regional. É importante destacar que a análise desenvolvida nesta dissertação recaiu no âmbito normativo da Unasul, visto que se trata de uma organização jovem e ainda em construção. Entretanto, mesmo na ausência de material empírico que harmonize diretrizes e práticas, reafirma-se o valor do exame do nível normativo de qualquer organização internacional. Inicialmente, conduziu-se uma profunda análise das ideias da Escola de Copenhague, aproximando suas premissas da realidade sul-americana, no entanto, sem negligenciar suas limitações analíticas. No tocante à temática do narcotráfico, traçou-se um panorama do processo de securitização da problemática durante a Guerra Fria, bem como o detalhamento do regime internacional antidrogas, apontando os principais incentivadores e implementadores da política antidrogas no sistema internacional. Também, buscou-se apresentar a realidade sul-americana quanto ao tema, fazendo um paralelo entre a política estadunidense, grande player externo, e o impacto no gerenciamento da questão na América do Sul. Em seguida, analisou-se o arranjo normativo da União de Nações Sul-Americana com relação à problemática, destacando a atuação do Conselho de Defesa Sul-Americano, do Conselho Sul-Americano sobre o Problema Mundial das Drogas e o Conselho Sul-Americano em Matéria de Segurança Cidadã, Justiça e Coordenação contra a Deliquência Organizada Transnacional. Por fim, realizou-se um paralelo entre as intenções e normativas da Unasul com as ações e diretrizes da política antidrogas norte-americana perpetrada nos últimos quase 50 anos na região. A União de Nações Sul-Americanas, portanto, tem avançado nas discussões sobre a problemática do narcotráfico na região, buscando ampliar a abordagem do tema ao mesmo tempo em que se apresenta como uma alternativa ao modelo militarista estadunidense. Dessa forma, vislumbra-se que a continuidade e consolidação das políticas pretendidas pela Unasul podem levar a constituição de um regime sul-americano para o problema mundial das drogas, que seja mais integral e que possa obter melhores resultados para a segurança regional.

This research set out to develop a deeper theoretical component to the emerging discipline of hydropolitics by studying the political aspects of institutional developments in the water sector. The focal point was the four international river basins that are shared between South Africa and six of its neighbouring states. The study found that while there is a lot of evidence for the securitization of water resource management in South Africa’s international river basins, there are also a number of examples of regimes. The creation of these regimes was driven primarily by threat perceptions relating to state security, mostly during the period of apartheid and the Cold War. These regimes were mostly robust and served as a valuable instrument for the de-escalation of conflict, which was primarily of a high politics nature. Examples of both plus-sum and zero-sum outcomes have been isolated. Plus-sum outcomes arose when the non-hegemonic state chose to view the offer of a regime in terms of national self-interest with four examples of this condition. In all four cases the non-hegemonic state benefited from cooperation with South Africa. Zero-sum outcomes arose when the non-hegemonic state chose to view the offer of a regime in terms of ideology with two examples of this condition. In both cases the non-hegemonic state did not benefit and was sidelined to the extent that they became marginalized and worse off than before. In all cases the hegemonic state benefited from the regime. The research consequently showed that a hydropolitical complex is emerging in Southern Africa, clustered around two international river basins, the Orange and Limpopo, which have been defined as pivotal basins. Both of these basins have reached the limit of their readily available water resources and future development is not possible on any great scale. Four of the most economically developed states in Southern Africa (Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe and South Africa) are riparians on these two international river basins, and have been defined as pivotal states. Other less developed countries that share any international river basin with a pivotal state have been defined as an impacted state, because their own development aspirations have been capped through this association. Any international river basin that has at least one of the pivotal states in it has been defined an impacted basin. Finally, this research showed that regimes create a plus-sum outcome in closed international river basins because they reduce the levels of uncertainty and institutionalize the conflict potential. As such regimes are a useful instrument with which to regulate inter-state behavior, leading over time to the development of institutions consisting of rules and procedures. / Thesis (DPhil (International Politics))--University of Pretoria, 2005. / Political Sciences / unrestricted