Les phénomènes éruptifs du Soleil sont souvent accompagnés par l'accélération de particules chargées qui peuvent avoir des impacts significatifs sur la Terre. Toutefois, le mécanisme responsable de ces phénomènes n'est pas suffisamment bien compris pour qu’on puisse en prédire l'occurence. Les satellites et les observatoires terrestres sondent la photosphère, la chromosphère et la couronne du Soleil et sont essentiels pour l'étude de l'activité solaire. Les simulations numériques tentent de faire le pont entre la physique décrivant l'intérieur de l'étoile et de telles observations. La prochaine étape pour des simulations réalistes serait la prévision à court terme des structures à la surface du Soleil. Les travaux présentés dans cette thèse explorent comment des notions empruntées de la météorologie (e.g., l'assimilation des données) et de l'intelligence artificielle (e.g., les réseaux de neurones) pourraient être utilisées pour la prédiction à court terme de l'activité solaire dans le contexte de la météorologie spatiale. En particulier, nous présentons notre implémentation de l'assimilation des données dans un modèle magnétohydrodynamique (MHD) radiatif du Soleil calme (i.e., en l'absence d'activité magnétique) afin de prédire l'évolution de la granulation solaire durant une courte période de temps. Toutefois, ce ne sont pas toutes les variables du modèle qui peuvent être observées ou mesurées à l'aide d'instruments. Par exemple, les mesures directes des mouvements du plasma à la surface du Soleil sont limitées à la composante le long de la ligne de visée. Plusieurs algorithmes ont donc été développés afin de reconstruire la composante transverse à partir de mesures de l'intensité de la lumière ou du champ magnétique. Nous comparons les champs de vitesse inférés par différentes méthodes, dont un réseau de neurones, afin d'identifier la méthode la mieux adaptée pour générer des observations synthétiques dans une chaîne de réduction des données qui pourraient ensuite être introduites dans notre système pour l'assimilation des données. / Eruptive events of the Sun, which often occur in the context of flares, convert large amounts of magnetic energy into emission and particle acceleration that can have significant impacts on Earth's environment. However, the mechanism responsible for such phenomena is not sufficiently well understood to be able to predict their occurrence. Satellites and ground-based observatories probe the Sun's photosphere, chromosphere and corona and are key in studying solar activity. Numerical models have attempted to bridge the gap between the physics of the solar interior and such observations. The next step for realistic simulations would be to forecast the short term evolution of the Sun's photosphere. The following work explores how notions borrowed from meteorology (e.g., data assimilation) and artificial intelligence (e.g., neural networks) could be used to forecast short term solar activity for space-weather modelling purposes. More specifically, we present an implementation of data assimilation in a radiative MHD model of the Quiet Sun (i.e., in the absence of significant magnetic activity) to forecast its evolution over a short period of time. However, not all model variables are directly observable. For example, direct measurements of plasma motions at the photosphere are limited to the line-of-sight component. Multiple algorithms were consequently developed to reconstruct the transverse component from observed continuum images or magnetograms. We compare velocity fields inferred by different methods, including a neural network, to identify the method best suited to generate instantaneous synthetic observations in a data reduction pipeline that would included in our data assimilation framework.

Earth is under constant influence of the Sun and phenomena driven by the solar wind that may affect man-made technology. These events are summarized under the concept of space weather. This creates variations in Earth’s magnetic field and nearby space. Space weather can affect power grids, gas pipelines and also have effects on human health. Due to these effects, as well as the scientific interest in space and the growing space industry, the need to monitor space weather, the space environment and how Earth is affected by them increases. Accurate magnetic mesurements rely on expensive magnetometers and careful calibration. Swedish Institute of Space Physics IRF, operates two magnetometers in Sweden, one observatory and one variometer to measure local geomagnetic variations. For the purpose of space weather, measurements of local variations have high demands on temporal resolution and precision but not the same need for long-term accuracy. The purpose of this thesis is to define and evaluate an autonomous system for local geomagnetic variations, with future hopes of creating a network of systems for space weather monitoring. The future goal is to be able to place systems in remote locations where they will be able to conduct measurements autonomously. The work was done by analysis and testing of a fluxgate magnetometer that was placed close to one of the IRFs existing magnetometers. Using data from the existing station as a reference, an analysis of the magnetometer could be performed. The results showed that the tested magnetometer had less precision than the existing station but could within a certain frequency range provide good results that make it possible to measure the local geomagnetic variations that may be of use for space weather. Conclusions from this study show that it is possible to create a simpler autonomous system for measurements of the local geomagnetic variations, but that this system requires further development, where future work can be based on this degree project as a basis. / Jorden är under konstant påverkan av solen och fenomen drivna av solvinden som kan påverka mänsklig teknologi. Dessa event sammanfattas under begreppet rymdväder. Genom detta skapas variationer i Jordens magnetfält och närliggande rymd. Rymdväder kan påverka kraftnät, gasledningar och även ha effekter på mänsklig hälsa. På grund av dessa effekter samt det vetenskapliga intresset för rymden och den växande rymdbranschen ökar behovet av att övervaka rymdväder, rymdmiljön samt hur Jorden påverkas av de. Exakta magnetiska mätningar är beroende av dyra magnetometrar och nogrann kalibrering. Institutet för Rymdfysik IRF driver två magnetometrar i Sverige, ett observatorium och en variometer för att mäta lokala geomagnetiska variationer. Då mätningar av lokala variationer har höga krav på temporal upplösning och precision men inte samma behov av kontroll på långsiktig noggrannhet. Syftet med det här examensarbetet är att definiera och utvärdera ett autonomt system för lokala geomagnetiska variationer, med framtida förhoppningar om att skapa ett nätverk av system för övervakning av rymdväder. Framtidsmålet är att kunna placera ut system på avlägsna platser där det autonomt ska kunna bedrivas mätningar. Arbetet gjordes genom analys och tester med en fluxgate-magnetometer som placerades i närheten av en av IRF befintliga magnetometrar. Med data från den existerande stationen som referens kunde en analys av magnetometern utföras. Resultatet visade att den testade magnetometern hade mindre precision än den befintliga stationen men kunde inom ett viss frekvensspann förse goda resultat som gjorde det möjligt att mäta de lokala geomagnetiska variationerna som kan vara till nytta för rymdväder. Slutsatser från denna studie visar att det är möjligt att skapa ett enklare autonomt system för mätningar av de lokala geomagnetiska variationerna men att detta system kräver vidare utveckling, där framtida arbete kan utgå från resultaten som erhölls i detta examensarbete.

Evapotranspiration is a nexus for planetary energy and carbon cycles, as yet poorly constrained. Here I use stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen to partition flux of water due to plant transpiration from the direct evaporative flux from soils, water bodies and plant. The study areas, Langat and Kelantan watersheds represent examples of domains dominated by the respective Southwest and Northeast monsoons on the two sides of the main orographic barrier (Titiwangsa mountain range). Mean annual rainfall for the Langat watershed, obtained from 30 years of hydrological data, is 2145 ± 237 mm. Tentatively, 48% of this precipitation returns to the atmosphere via transpiration (T), with 33% partitioned into discharge (Q), 8% into interception (In), and 11% into evaporation (Ed). In the Kelantan watershed, the mean annual rainfall, also based on the 30 year hydrological data, is 2383 ± 120 mm. Similar to Langat, the T accounts for 43% of precipitation (P), 45% is discharged into South China Sea (Q), 12% partitioned into interception (In) and tentatively 0% for evaporation (Ed). Ed for the Langat watershed represents only a small proportion in terms of volumetric significance, up to almost ~11% with strong effect on the isotopic fingerprints of waters associated with the summer Southwest Monsoon (SWM). Note, however, that insignificant Ed for the Kelantan watershed may be an artefact of rain and river water sampling at only coastal downstream portion of the watershed. High humidity (80%) also was recorded for the Malaysian Peninsula watershed. T appropriates about half of all solar energy absorbed by the continents, here ~1000*103 g H2O m-2 yr-1 similar to other tropical regions at 900-1200*103 g H2O m-2 yr-1. The associated carbon fluxes are ~ 1300 g C m-2yr-1, independent of P. Vegetation responses to solar irradiance, via T and photosynthesis reflects the importance of stomatal regulation of the water and carbon fluxes. In order to maintain high transpiration in the tropical region, “constant” water supply is required for continuous pumping of water that delivers nutrients to the plant, suggesting that water and carbon cycle are co-driven by the energy of the sun. The existence of the water conveyor belt may be precondition for nutrient delivery, hence operation of the carbon cycle. Potentially, this may change our perspective on the role that biology plays in the water cycle. In such perspective, the global water cycle is the medium that redistributes the incoming solar energy across the planet, and the anatomical structures of plants then help to optimize the loop of energy transfer via evaporation and precipitation in the hydrologic cycle. The main features of aquatic geochemistry of the Langat and Kelantan rivers inferred from the Principal Component Analysis are controlled by three components that explain 80% and 82% of total variances. These components are reflecting of the geogenic factor with superimposed pollution, the latter particularly pronounced in urbanized sections of the Langat river and dominant in downstream of the Kelantan river. There is no correlation between seasonal variations in major ion chemistry and environmental variables such as precipitation, discharge, temperature or solar activity.

Evapotranspiration is a nexus for planetary energy and carbon cycles, as yet poorly constrained. Here I use stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen to partition flux of water due to plant transpiration from the direct evaporative flux from soils, water bodies and plant. The study areas, Langat and Kelantan watersheds represent examples of domains dominated by the respective Southwest and Northeast monsoons on the two sides of the main orographic barrier (Titiwangsa mountain range). Mean annual rainfall for the Langat watershed, obtained from 30 years of hydrological data, is 2145 ± 237 mm. Tentatively, 48% of this precipitation returns to the atmosphere via transpiration (T), with 33% partitioned into discharge (Q), 8% into interception (In), and 11% into evaporation (Ed). In the Kelantan watershed, the mean annual rainfall, also based on the 30 year hydrological data, is 2383 ± 120 mm. Similar to Langat, the T accounts for 43% of precipitation (P), 45% is discharged into South China Sea (Q), 12% partitioned into interception (In) and tentatively 0% for evaporation (Ed). Ed for the Langat watershed represents only a small proportion in terms of volumetric significance, up to almost ~11% with strong effect on the isotopic fingerprints of waters associated with the summer Southwest Monsoon (SWM). Note, however, that insignificant Ed for the Kelantan watershed may be an artefact of rain and river water sampling at only coastal downstream portion of the watershed. High humidity (80%) also was recorded for the Malaysian Peninsula watershed. T appropriates about half of all solar energy absorbed by the continents, here ~1000*103 g H2O m-2 yr-1 similar to other tropical regions at 900-1200*103 g H2O m-2 yr-1. The associated carbon fluxes are ~ 1300 g C m-2yr-1, independent of P. Vegetation responses to solar irradiance, via T and photosynthesis reflects the importance of stomatal regulation of the water and carbon fluxes. In order to maintain high transpiration in the tropical region, “constant” water supply is required for continuous pumping of water that delivers nutrients to the plant, suggesting that water and carbon cycle are co-driven by the energy of the sun. The existence of the water conveyor belt may be precondition for nutrient delivery, hence operation of the carbon cycle. Potentially, this may change our perspective on the role that biology plays in the water cycle. In such perspective, the global water cycle is the medium that redistributes the incoming solar energy across the planet, and the anatomical structures of plants then help to optimize the loop of energy transfer via evaporation and precipitation in the hydrologic cycle. The main features of aquatic geochemistry of the Langat and Kelantan rivers inferred from the Principal Component Analysis are controlled by three components that explain 80% and 82% of total variances. These components are reflecting of the geogenic factor with superimposed pollution, the latter particularly pronounced in urbanized sections of the Langat river and dominant in downstream of the Kelantan river. There is no correlation between seasonal variations in major ion chemistry and environmental variables such as precipitation, discharge, temperature or solar activity.