Informações que caracterizam o risco quebra de produção agrícola são necessárias para a precificação de prêmio do seguro agrícola de produção e de renda. A distribuição de probabilidade da variável rendimento agrícola é uma dessas informações, em especial aquela que descreve a variável aleatória rendimento agrícola condicionada aos fatores de risco climáticos. Este trabalho objetiva aplicar redes Bayesianas (grafo acíclico direcionado, ou modelo hierárquico Bayesiano) a estimação da distribuição de probabilidade de rendimento da soja em alguns municípios do Paraná, com foco na analise comparativa de riscos. Dados meteorológicos (ANA e INMET, período de 1970 a 2011) e de sensoriamento remoto (MODIS, período de 2000 a 2011) são usados conjuntamente para descrever espacialmente o risco climático de quebra de produção. Os dados de rendimento usados no estudo (COAMO, período de 2001 a 2011) requerem agrupamento de todos os dados ao nível municipal e, para tanto, a seleção de dados foi realizada nas dimensões espacial e temporal por meio de um mapa da cultura da soja (estimado por SVM - support vector machine) e os resultados de um algoritmo de identificação de ciclo de culturas. A interpolação requerida para os dados de temperatura utilizou uma componente de tendência estimada por dados de sensoriamento remoto, para descrever variações espaciais da variável que são ofuscadas pelos métodos tradicionais de interpolação. Como resultados, identificou-se relação significativa entre a temperatura observada por estações meteorológicas e os dados de sensoriamento remoto, apoiando seu uso conjunto nas estimativas. O classificador que estima o mapa da cultura da soja apresenta sobre-ajuste para safras das quais as amostras usadas no treinamento foram coletadas. Além da seleção de dados, a identificação de ciclo também permitiu obtenção de distribuições de datas de plantio da cultura da soja para o estado do Paraná. As redes bayesianas apresentam grande potencial e algumas vantagens quando aplicadas na modelagem de risco agrícola. A representação da distribuição de probabilidade por um grafo facilita o entendimento de problemas complexos, por suposições de causalidade, e facilita o ajuste, estruturação e aplicação do modelo probabilístico. A distribuição log-normal demonstrou-se a mais adequada para a modelagem das variáveis de ambiente (soma térmica, chuva acumulada e maior período sem chuva), e a distribuição beta para produtividade relativa e índices de estado (amplitude de NDVI e de EVI). No caso da regressão beta, o parâmetro de precisão também foi modelado com dependência das variáveis explicativas melhorando o ajuste da distribuição. O modelo probabilístico se demonstrou pouco representativo subestimando bastante as taxas de prêmio de seguro em relação a taxas praticadas no mercado, mas ainda assim apresenta contribui para o entendimento comparativo de situações de risco de quebra de produção da cultura da soja. / Information that characterize the risk of crop losses are necessary to crop and revenue insurance underwriting. The probability distribution of yield is one of this information. This research applies Bayesian networks (direct acyclic graph, or hierarchical Bayesian model) to estimate the probability distribution of soybean yield for some counties in Paraná state (Brazil) with focus on risk comparative analysis. Meteorological data (ANA and INMET, from 1970 to 2011) and remote sensing data (MODIS, from 2001 to 2011) were used to describe spatially the climate risk of production loss. The yield data used in this study (COAMO, from 2001 to 2011) required grouping to county level and, for that, a process of data selection was performed on spatial and temporal dimensions by a crop map (estimated by SVM - support vector machine) and by the results of a crop cycle identification algorithm. The interpolation required to spatialize temperature required a trend component which was estimated by remote sensing data, to describe the spatial variations of the variable obfuscated by traditional interpolation methods. As results, a significant relation between temperature from meteorological stations and remote sensing data was found, sustaining the use of the supposed relation between the two variables. The soybean map classifier shown over-fitting for the crop seasons for which the training samples were collected. Besides the data collection, a seeding dates distribution of soybean in Paraná state was obtained from the crop cycle identification process. The Bayesian networks showed big potential and some advantages when applied to agronomic risk modeling. The representation of the probability distribution by graphs helps the understanding of complex problems, with causality suppositions, and also helps the fitting, structuring and application of the probabilistic model. The log-normal probability distribution showed to be the best to model environment variables (thermal sum, accumulated precipitation and biggest period without rain), and the beta distribution to be the best to model relative yield and state indexes (NDVI and EVI ranges). In the case of beta regression, the precision parameter was also modeled with explanation variables as dependencies increasing the quality of the distribution fitting. In the overall, the probabilistic model had low representativity underestimating the premium rates, however it contributes to understand scenarios with risk of yield loss for the soybean crop.

Neste trabalho utilizamos um modelo espaço-temporal proposto em Rojas (2004) para medir a interação social da criminalidade na região metropolitana de São Paulo. Realizamos simulações de Monte Carlo para testar a capacidade de estimação do modelo em diferentes cenários. Observamos que a estimação melhora com o aumento de observações ao longo do tempo. Já os resultados empíricos indicam que a região metropolitana de São Paulo é um hot spot no estado, pois é encontrado um maior grau de interação social no índice de homicídio em relação aos índices de roubo e furto. / In this paper we employ a spatio-temporal model proposed in Rojas (2004) to evaluate the social interaction in crime in São Paulo metropolitan area. We carry out Monte Carlo simulations to test the model estimation capability in different scenarios. We notice that the estimation gets better as the number of observations in time raises. The results point out that São Paulo metropolitan area is a hot spot in the state since we found out a greater social interaction for the homicide index, compared to robbery and thievery.

Submitted by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2017-05-16T12:05:36Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Keyla Vaz Silva - 2017.pdf: 6392794 bytes, checksum: f8d2dc0417e8093d8de54c4eb9b66428 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2017-05-16T12:06:03Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Keyla Vaz Silva - 2017.pdf: 6392794 bytes, checksum: f8d2dc0417e8093d8de54c4eb9b66428 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-05-16T12:06:03Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Keyla Vaz Silva - 2017.pdf: 6392794 bytes, checksum: f8d2dc0417e8093d8de54c4eb9b66428 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-04-18 / The present research was developed in the city of Goiânia-GO with the objective of analyzing the importance of the Areião and Vaca Brava Parks in the mitigation of heat islands, from the spatial and temporal variation of temperature and relative humidity of the air and Absolute minimum, considering different forms of land use and occupation. The analysis considered the parameters temperature and relative humidity of the maximum and minimum air; Morphometric aspects, such as slope, hypsometry, orientation of the slopes; The different patterns of land use and occupation; The regional circulation. The morphometric information was obtained from the digital cartographic base model of the Urban Basic Digital Map of Goiânia (MUBDG, version 23) using ArcGis 10.1 software. The soil use and occupation pattern was obtained from the orthophoto image. The theoretical and methodological proposal was structured in the S.C.U (Urban Climate System), based on the Monteiro thermodynamic perception channel (1976). Air temperature and humidity data were obtained in situ and by means of secondary data provided by INMET (National Institute of Meteorology) from May to December 2016. In situ data were obtained from thermocouples (Datalogger) installed in (Sezarino and Monteiro, 1990b), with records every 15 minutes, distributed in densely urbanized sites and parks (Areião and Vaca Brava). The study area is located in the southern portion of Goiânia, due to the peculiar characteristics of a metropolis city. This research allowed to understand the spatial and temporal variation of the temperature and relative humidity of the air, being that the aspect of the seasonality is strongly identified. Among the analyzed factors, the morphometry, in this scale of analysis, had little influence on the spatial variation of the data. The pattern of land use and occupation was what, together with the regional dynamics, established influences in the analysis of data behavior. Specifically, points P3 and P4 (Field Headquarters of Goiás Esporte Clube and State College Pedro Xavier Teixeira) presented higher values of maximum air temperature (38.8 and 39.8 ° C) and the lowest relative humidity Air, of 18%. The importance of points P1 and P2 (Areião and Vaca Brava parks) is emphasized for cooling the temperature and increasing the humidity of the air in the place. They presented during the period considered hotter and drier in the study area, contribution of up to 5,5ºC in the cooling of the air temperature and, of up to 7%, in the higher humidity, thus improving the environmental quality. It is considered that due to the strong climatic seasonality of Goiânia, it is necessary to expand green areas as corridors integrated with the city parks in order to make it possible to cool the effects of the heat island. / A pesquisa que ora se apresenta foi desenvolvida na cidade de Goiânia-GO com o objetivo de analisar a importância dos Parques Areião e Vaca Brava na mitigação das ilhas de calor, a partir da variação espacial e temporal da temperatura e umidade relativa do ar máximas e mínimas absolutas, considerando diferentes formas de uso e ocupação do solo. A análise considerou os parâmetros temperatura e umidade relativa do ar máxima e mínima; aspectos morfométricos, como declividade, hipsometria, orientação das vertentes; os diferentes padrões de uso e ocupação do solo e; a circulação regional. As informações morfométricos foram obtidas a partir do modelo da base cartográfica digital do Mapa Urbano Básico Digital de Goiânia (MUBDG, versão 23), utilizando-se software ArcGis 10.1. O padrão de uso e ocupação do solo foi obtido a partir da imagem da ortofoto 2011. A proposta teórica e metodológica foi estruturada no S.C.U (Sistema do Clima Urbano), a partir do canal de percepção termodinâmico de Monteiro (1976). Os dados de temperatura e umidade do ar foram obtidos in situ e por meio de dados secundários disponibilizados pelo INMET (Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia), entre maio a dezembro de 2016. Os dados in situ foram obtidos a partir de termohigrômetros (Datalogger) instalados em mini abrigo meteorológico (Sezarino e Monteiro, 1990b), com registros a cada 15 minutos, distribuídos em locais densamente urbanizados e de parques (Areião e Vaca Brava). A área de estudo está localizada na porção Sul de Goiânia, por apresentar características peculiares de cidade de porte de metrópole. Essa pesquisa permitiu compreender a variação espacial e temporal da temperatura e umidade relativa do ar, sendo que o aspecto da sazonalidade é fortemente identificado. Dentre os fatores analisados, a morfometria, nessa escala de análise, pouco influenciou na variação espacial dos dados. O padrão de uso e ocupação do solo foi o que estabeleceu, juntamente com a dinâmica regional, influencias na análise do comportamento dos dados. Especificamente os pontos P3 e P4 (Sede do Campo do Goiás Esporte Clube e Colégio Estadual Pedro Xavier Teixeira) apresentaram valores mais elevados de temperatura máxima do ar (38,8 e 39,8°C) e, os menores índices de umidade relativa do ar, de 18%. Ressalta-se a importância dos pontos P1 e P2 (parques Areião e Vaca Brava) para o arrefecimento da temperatura e aumento da umidade do ar no local. Apresentaram durante o período considerado mais quente e mais seco na área de estudo, contribuição de até 5,5ºC no arrefecimento da temperatura do ar e, de até 7%, no de umidade mais elevada, melhorando assim a qualidade ambiental. Considera-se que mediante a forte sazonalidade climática de Goiânia, faz-se necessário a ampliação de áreas verdes como corredores integrados com os parques da cidade de forma a possibilitar o arrefecimento dos efeitos da ilha de calor.

Os efeitos de borda e a alteração da estrutura das paisagens constituem consequências negativas da fragmentação florestal responsáveis por transformações nos processos ecológicos. Decorrentes da expansão desordenada de atividades antrópicas, estas alterações podem comprometer o futuro dos remanescentes florestais e a manutenção dos recursos naturais na superfície terrestre. Nesta dissertação a dinâmica da vegetação arbórea foi analisada em oito transectos perpendiculares às bordas de seis remanescentes florestais entre 1996 e 2012. As paisagens do entorno destes transectos foram caracterizadas a partir de imagens orbitais de 1995 e 2011 para a verificação das mudanças ocorridas no uso do solo e para a investigação da influência de seus parâmetros físicos e estruturais sobre as taxas de mortalidade e recrutamento de espécies. Os resultados indicaram que, ao longo do tempo, a influência das bordas se pronunciou em direção ao interior dos remanescentes florestais, enquanto que o contraste entre a borda e o interior se atenuou. A distância média da borda das espécies: pioneiras/iniciais, anemocóricas e de dossel foi significativamente maior em 2012 do que em 1996. A comunidade arbórea apresentou menor similaridade em sua composição ao longo do tempo a menores distâncias da borda. Apesar da dinâmica verificada no uso do solo, a proporcionalidade dos parâmetros físicos e estruturais das paisagens se manteve entre 1995 e 2011. De maneira geral, estes parâmetros apresentaram pouca influência sobre a dinâmica da comunidade arbórea. Apenas as taxas de mortalidade das espécies exóticas e as taxas de recrutamento das espécies pioneiras/inicias apresentam forte relação com o tamanho e o número dos fragmentos florestais nas paisagens. Estes resultados indicam que os efeitos de borda precisam ser atenuados e que o contexto das paisagens deve ser incorporado às estratégias conservacionistas para que estas sejam efetivas e o futuro dos remanescentes florestais não seja comprometido. / Edge effects and landscape structure alterations are among the negative consequences of forest fragmentation responsible for ecological process alterations on the earths surface. Originated from the disordered expansion of anthropogenic activities these alterations may endanger the remaining forest patches future and the maintenance of natural resources. This dissertation was pledged to analyze the vegetation dynamics at forest edges and its relations with landscape features. The vegetation dynamics was examined through eight perpendicular-to-edge transects within six forest patches and the alterations on the arboreal community distribution and composition were assessed between 1996 and 2012. The surrounding landscapes of the analyzed transects were characterized from 1995 and 2011 orbital images and its land use changes were evaluated. Landscape structure and physical parameters influence were analyzed over species recruitment and mortality. The results indicated that the distance of edge influence increased over time while its magnitude was attenuated. The average distance from the edge of pioneer/earlysuccessional species, wind-dispersed and canopy species in 2012 became significantly larger than in 1996. Over time lower similarities in species composition were found to be closer to the edges. Although the observed land use changes in the surrounding landscapes of the edge transects landscape structure and physical parameters proportionality was maintained between 1995 and 2011. Overall the arboreal community dynamics were poorly associated with landscape features. A strong relation of the variables was only found between the exotic and pioneer/early-successional species mortality and recruitment and the size and the amount of forest patches within the landscapes. These results indicate that to be effective conservation planning must tackled edge effects and incorporate the landscape context otherwise they will fail for the maintenance of the future of forest patches.

Most albatrosses are critically endangered, endangered or vulnerable due to the deleterious impact of fisheries, pollution, introduced species, habitat alteration, and climate change. Foraging behaviour influences many aspects of seabird biology, and a detailed understanding of foraging ecology is required to better predict the impacts of significant changes to the marine environment. Campbell Albatross (Thalassarche impavida) is a threatened endemic, confined to a small number of locations on Campbell Island, New Zealand and was recently split from the closely related Black-browed Albatross (T. melanophrys). We currently lack much basic information on the foraging behaviour of this species, hindering our ability to understand how change may have occurred in the past and make predictions about it’s long-term future. First, I used GPS loggers and stable isotope analysis of blood to investigate how distribution and foraging effort (distance travelled and duration) varied with sex and breeding stage. I found that Campbell Albatrosses are sexually dimorphic and showed sex-specific foraging behaviour and habitat use – although this varied by stage of reproduction. Because males and females may be vulnerable to different threats, such as interactions with fisheries, I compared the spatial overlap and high resolution spatio-temporal overlaps between fisheries vessels and albatrosses within New Zealand’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Albatrosses utilised 32% of the EEZ, however they overlapped with fisheries vessels in only 0.20% of the area. Previous research has demonstrated that the influence of fisheries vessels goes beyond the immediate location of the boat itself. Campbell Albatross have low levels of spatio-temporal overlap with fisheries – with males overlapping more than females. More generally, my results indicate that adding data on fine scale interactions will improve fisheries risk assessments, and provide information needed for the conservation and management of the Campbell Albatross. A key development in recent ecological research has been a greater appreciation that inter-individual variation in foraging behaviour can have profound population-level consequences. Accordingly I tested for individual differences in foraging behaviour in Campbell Albatrosses. The majority of individuals demonstrated both annual and inter-annual individual consistency in foraging locations, and the degree of specialisation was influenced by both sex and year. Consistent terminal latitude and longitude of foraging trips indicated high foraging area fidelity with a degree of flexibility in the fine-scale location. During brooding, females used the Campbell Plateau and showed more consistent behaviours than males, which tended to forage in the Southern Ocean. This adds to a growing body of evidence of individual foraging specialisation among seabirds in general and albatrosses in particular and reveals marked inter-individual differences in vulnerability to threats. In light of the evidence of individual foraging specialisations in the Campbell albatross, I also preformed a literature review of individual foraging specialisations across all seabirds. I found studies examining foraging specialisation for 35 species, with 28 (80%) providing evidence of consistent inter-individual differences (i.e. specialisation). Current studies suggest that specialisation is influenced by environmental variability and resource predictability, however, with limited data in tropical regions, more studies are needed to test these links. In summary, my thesis has provided new information on Campbell Albatross foraging ecology. Sex specific variations in behaviour and habitat use may influence conservation and management strategies. I have been able to contextualise the consistent individual differences in foraging distribution described for this species in light of global patterns of individual foraging specialisation in seabirds and highlight future areas of research.

Learning to recognize and predict common activities, performed by objects and observed by sensors, is an important and challenging problem related both to artificial intelligence and robotics.In this thesis, the general problem of dynamic adaptive situation awareness is considered and we argue for the need for an on-line bottom-up approach.A candidate for a bottom layer is proposed, which we consider to be capable of future extensions that can bring us closer towards the goal.We present a novel approach to adaptive activity learning, where a mapping between raw data and primitive activity concepts are learned and continuously improved on-line and unsupervised. The approach takes streams of observations of objects as input and learns a probabilistic representation of both the observed spatio-temporal activities and their causal relations. The dynamics of the activities are modeled using sparse Gaussian processes and their causal relations using probabilistic graphs.The learned model supports both estimating the most likely activity and predicting the most likely future (and past) activities. Methods and ideas from a wide range of previous work are combined to provide a uniform and efficient way to handle a variety of common problems related to learning, classifying and predicting activities.The framework is evaluated both by learning activities in a simulated traffic monitoring application and by learning the flight patterns of an internally developed autonomous quadcopter system. The conclusion is that our framework is capable of learning the observed activities in real-time with good accuracy.We see this work as a step towards unsupervised learning of activities for robotic systems to adapt to new circumstances autonomously and to learn new activities on the fly that can be detected and predicted immediately. / Att lära sig känna igen och förutsäga vanliga aktiviteter genom att analysera sensordata från observerade objekt är ett viktigt och utmanande problem relaterat både till artificiell intelligens och robotik. I det här exjobbet studerar vi det generella problemet rörande adaptiv situationsmedvetenhet, och vi argumenterar för behovet av ett angreppssätt som arbetar on-line (direkt på ny data) och från botten upp. Vi föreslår en möjlig lösning som vi anser bereder väg för framtida utökningar som kan ta oss närmare detta mål. Vi presenterar en ny metod för adaptiv aktivitetsinlärning, där en mappning mellan rå-data och grundläggande aktivitetskoncept, samt deras kausala relationer, lärs och är kontinuerligt förfinade utan behov av övervakning. Tillvägagångssättet bygger på användandet av strömmar av observationer av objekt, och inlärning sker av en statistik representation för både de observerade spatio-temporala aktiviteterna och deras kausala relationer. Aktiviteternas dynamik modelleras med hjälp av glesa Gaussiska processer och för att modellera aktiviteternas kausala samband används probabilistiska grafer. Givet observationer av ett objekt så stödjer de inlärda modellerna både skattning av den troligaste aktiviteten och förutsägelser av de mest troliga framtida (och dåtida) aktiviteterna utförda. Metoder och idéer från en rad olika tidigare arbeten kombineras på ett sätt som möjliggör ett enhetligt och effektivt sätt att hantera en mängd vanliga problem relaterade till inlärning, klassificering och förutsägelser av aktiviteter. Ramverket är utvärderat genom att dels inlärning av aktiviteter i en simulerad trafikövervakningsapplikation och dels genom inlärning av flygmönster hos ett  internt utvecklad quadrocoptersystem. Slutsatsen är att vårt ramverk klarar av att lära sig de observerade aktivisterna i realtid med god noggrannhet. Vi ser detta arbete som ett steg mot oövervakad inlärning av aktiviteter för robotsystem, så att dessa kan anpassa sig till nya förhållanden autonomt och lära sig nya aktiviteter direkt och som då dessutom kan börja detekteras och förutsägas omedelbart.

A large part of people's lives are spent in indoor spaces such as office and university buildings, shopping malls, subway stations, airports, museums, community centers, etc. Such kind of spaces can be very large and paths inside the locations can be constrained and complex. Deployment of indoor tracking technologies like RFID, Bluetooth, and Wi-Fi can track people and object movements from one symbolic location to another within the indoor spaces. The resulting tracking data can be massive in volume. Analyzing these large volumes of tracking data can reveal interesting patterns that can provide opportunities for different types of location-based services, security, indoor navigation, identifying problems in the system, and finally service improvements. In addition to the huge volume, the structure of the unprocessed raw tracking data is complex in nature and not directly suitable for further efficient analysis. It is essential to develop efficient data management techniques and perform different kinds of analysis to make the data beneficial to the end user. The Ph.D. study is sponsored by the BagTrack Project (http://daisy.aau.dk/bagtrack). The main technological objective of this project is to build a global IT solution to significantly improve the worldwide aviation baggage handling quality. The Ph.D. study focuses on developing data management techniques for efficient and effective analysis of RFID-based symbolic indoor tracking data, especially for the baggage tracking scenario. First, the thesis describes a carefully designed a data warehouse solution with a relational schema sitting underneath a multidimensional data cube, that can handle the many complexities in the massive non-traditional RFID baggage tracking data. The thesis presents the ETL flow that loads the data warehouse with the appropriate tracking data from the data sources. Second, the thesis presents a methodology for mining risk factors in RFID baggage tracking data. The aim is to find the factors and interesting patterns that are responsible for baggage mishandling. Third, the thesis presents an online risk prediction technique for indoor moving objects. The target is to develop a risk prediction system that can predict the risk of an object in real-time during its operation so that the object can be saved from being mishandled. Fourth, the thesis presents two graph-based models for constrained and semi-constrained indoor movements, respectively. These models are used for mapping the tracking records into mapping records that represent the entry and exit times of an object at a symbolic location. The mapping records are then used for finding dense locations. Fifth, the thesis presents an efficient indexing technique, called the $DLT$-Index, for efficiently processing dense location queries as well as point and interval queries. The outcome of the thesis can contribute to the aviation industry for efficiently processing different analytical queries, finding problems in baggage management systems, and improving baggage handling quality. The developed data management techniques also contribute to the spatio-temporal data management and data mining field. / Doctorat en Sciences de l'ingénieur / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

En Guadeloupe, actuellement, 5,92% de la demande en énergie électrique sont couverts par la filière photovoltaïque et 3,14% par la filière éolienne soit 9,06% pour leur production cumulée selon le bilan 2015 de l’OREC (Observatoire Régional de l’Energie et du Climat). Selon le plan énergétique régional de prospection, la production cumulée du photovoltaïque et de l’éolien devrait représenter 14% du mix électrique en 2020 et 18% en 2030. Pour atteindre les 14% du mix électrique d’ici les cinq prochaines années, il va donc falloir entre autres, améliorer la prédictibilité pour un développement à un rythme soutenu de ces énergies. Ces travaux de recherches ont consisté à apporter de nouveaux résultats de performance de prévision de l’ensoleillement global à court terme et à donner une connaissance plus fine de la ressource sur trois stations en Guadeloupe. L’étude est basée sur une analyse et un modèle de prévision de l’ensoleillement, faisant intervenir des paramètres spatiaux et temporels. La littérature montre qu’un important nombre de sites est en général utilisé pour une analyse spatio-temporelle, ce qui impliquerait pour nous, de poser de multiples capteurs sur l’ensemble du territoire. Les coûts d’un tel système seraient considérables. Notre approche ici consistera à effectuer une analyse spatio-temporelle sur trois stations. Avec peu de stations et des distances non uniformes nous avons donc cherché à développer un modèle de prévision de l’ensoleillement à court terme en dépit de ces contraintes qui ne répondent pas à une approche classique. Le modèle est basé sur une méthodologie VAR (Vecteur Autorégressif) incluant des paramètres spatiaux et temporels. Une stratégie de sélection des variables est développée afin de sélectionner les prédicteurs (stations) utiles pour la prévision sur une localisation. Cette stratégie itérative permettra d’une part d’être plus proche de la réalité, d’autre part d’un point de vue algorithmique, la tendance des calculs sera plus rapide. En amont du développement du modèle, une étude de la variabilité spatio-temporelle de l’ensoleillement a permis de quantifier et caractériser de manière fine, les interactions dynamiques entre ces trois stations. Par comparaison avec les modèles de la littérature, notre modèle de prévision montre une bonne performance avec des valeurs de RMSE relative allant de 17,48% à 23,79% pour des horizons de prévisions de 5 min à 1h. Les méthodologies développées pourraient à terme offrir une opportunité d’assurer des garanties au gestionnaire du réseau. Si d'avenir des solutions de prévision performantes se généralisaient, cette opportunité permettrait d’ouvrir le marché au-delà du seuil de 30% imposé actuellement. / Currently in Guadeloupe, there is 5,92 % of the electric power request covered by the photovoltaic sector and 3,14 % by the wind sector which represents 9,06 % for their accumulated production, according to the OREC report (Regional Monitoring center of Energy and Climate). According to the regional energy plan, the accumulated production of the photovoltaic and the wind energy should represent 14 % of the electric mix in 2020 and 18 % in 2030. To reach the 14 % of the electric mix within the next five years, we need, among other things, to improve forecast for a sustained development of these energies. These research works consisted in bringing new performance results of short-term forecast of the global solar radiation and in giving a finer knowledge of the resource onto three stations in Guadeloupe. The study is based on an analysis and a forecast model of global solar radiation, by including spatial and temporal parameters. The literature shows that an important number of sites is generally used for a spatio-temporal analysis, which would imply for us, to put multiple sensors on the whole territory. The costs of such a system would be considerable. Our approach here will consist in making a spatiotemporal analysis on three stations. With few stations and not uniform distances, we, thus, tried to define a short-term forecast model of global solar radiation, in spite of these constraints which do not answer to a classic approach. The model is based on a methodology the VAR ( Autoregressive Vector) including spatial and temporal parameters. A strategy of selection of variables is developed to select useful predictors (stations) for the forecast on localization. This iterative strategy, on one hand will allow being closer to the reality, on the other hand to the point of algorithmic view, the trend of the calculations will be faster. Preliminarily, a study of the spatiotemporal variability of global solar radiation, allowed to quantify and to characterize in a fine way, the dynamic interactions between these three stations. Compared with the models of the literature, our forecast model shows a good performance with relative RMSE values going from 17.48 % to 23.79 % for horizons from 5 min to 1 hour. The developed methodologies could eventually offer an opportunity to assure guarantees to the network manager. If in the future the successful solutions of forecast became widespread, this opportunity would allow the opening of the market beyond the 30 % threshold imposed at present.

Les événements spatio-temporels regroupent une large diversité de phénomènes comportant des caractéristiques propres. Par exemple, l’étude de flux migratoires se révèle ainsi très différente de l’étude de propagation de maladies. En effet, le domaine d’intérêt de la première porte sur le suivi des trajectoires, tandis que celui de la deuxième porte sur les facteurs de la propagation. De plus, chaque classe d’un problème spatio-temporel peut être abordée différemment, que l’on considère ou non un voisinage spatial, une caractérisation des objets d’étude unique ou multiple, ou bien une (in)dépendance entre les événements. Ainsi, les techniques de fouilles de données développées sont souvent restées spécifiques à une sous-classe de problème spatio-temporel, c’est-à-dire sous un ensemble restreint d’hypothèses.Or, pour réussir à dégager des connaissances nouvelles à partir de données, il est nécessaire d’élargir cet ensemble d’hypothèses, c’est-à-dire élargir le champs des possibles quant aux corrélations qu’il peut exister entre événements. Nous proposons donc une modélisation de ces phénomènes spatio-temporels permettant de prendre en compte plus de considérations que dans l’état de l’art. En outre, cette modélisation permet d’exprimer des événements qui existent dans les phénomènes d’érosion : un objet d’étude peut se diviser en plusieurs objets, ou fusionner avec d’autres objets pour n’en former qu’un seul. Plus précisément, nous modélisons les dynamiques spatio-temporelles sous la forme d’un unique graphe orienté, que la composante temporelle des problèmes rend acyclique, et dont les sommets sont attribués par plusieurs caractéristiques. / Spatio-temporal events denote a large range of phenomena with different characteristics. For example, migration flows studies appear to be very different from disease spread studies. Indeed, interestingness of the first relies on tracking trajectories, whereas the second is about finding the factors of spread. Moreover, each class of a spatio-temporal problem can be tackled differently, depending on which parameters are considered: the studied spatial neighbourhood, the number of characteristics associated with the objects, or whether events are supposed correlated or independent. As a result, data mining techniques are often specificto a sub-class of spatio-temporal problem, that is to say, to a limited set of hypothesis.In order to bring out new knowledge from data, it seems to be necessary to enlarge this set of hypothesis, that is to say, to widen the field of possibilities regarding correlations that may exist between events. For this, we propose a new model that allows to take into account more considerations than existing studies. For example, this representation allows to model the complex spatio-temporal dynamic of erosion phenomenon: an object can be split up in several other objects, or can merge with other objects into one. More precisely, we use a single directed graph, that becomes acyclic thanks to the temporal component of the problem, and that is attributed by several characteristics.

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / The present dissertation purports to analyze the relationship between the notions of reference and ontology in the Peter Frederick Strawson‟s philosophy. Strawson wants to defend an ontological realism, in which the basic entities are material bodies. We have occupied ourselves with the analysis of the role of identifying reference in his argumentation. In the first Chapter, we analyze how the ontological problem is formulated by Strawson, within ordinary language. The phrase Linguistic Turn‟ is used to denote the set of issues around this topic. Our analysis concluded that ordinary language is the most general and pervasive language, which also has the means necessary for metaphysical researches. In the second Chapter, we deal with the elucidation of the conditions in which an identifying reference is successfully made. The analysis showed that, when referring to particulars, to consider the contextual requirements it is necessary to make a successfully identifying reference, which necessarily include spatio-temporal elements this condition is not necessary when we refer identifyingly to general things. Thus, we use the term spatio-temporal particulars to designate a class of items, which are, in a philosophical sense, concretes. In the Third Chapter, we examine how Strawson uses the notion of identifying reference to get the notions of independent and basic, which ought to be attached to the notion of materials bodies, if the philosopher intends to be a metaphysical realist. Through the analysis of the concept of reference, Strawson comes to the notion of a unified framework of knowledge of particulars, which is necessary for us to refer non-demonstratively to spatio-temporal particulars. However, a condition of this unity is the independent existence of spatio-temporal particulars. Although material bodies are basic in the category of spatio-temporal particulars, the identification of particulars of various subcategories rests on the identification of material objects. In the end, discuss some criticisms of Strawson‟s arguments and make another argument in support of Strawson‟s argument. / A presente dissertação tem como objetivo analisar a relação entre as noções de referência e ontologia na filosofia de Peter Frederick Strawson. Strawson pretende defender uma ontologia realista, onde suas entidades básicas são objetos materiais e pessoas, assim, ocupamo-nos em elucidar o papel que a noção de referência identificadora cumpre nessa argumentação. No primeiro Capítulo, analisamos o modo como o problema ontológico é formulado, por Strawson, no âmago da linguagem ordinária. A expressão Giro Linguístico‟ é tomada para designar o conjunto de questões em torno desse tópico. Nossas análises obtiveram como conclusão que a linguagem ordinária é a mais geral e penetrante, a qual também disporia dos meios necessários para as investigações de caráter metafísico. No segundo Capítulo, ocupamo-nos com a elucidação das condições em que uma referência identificadora ocorre com sucesso. As análises mostraram que, quando nos referimos a particulares, é necessário, para o sucesso em referir, a consideração de requerimentos contextuais, os quais necessariamente incluem aspectos espaços-temporais e são dispensáveis na maioria das referências a entidades gerais. Destarte, passamos a usar o termo particulares espaço-temporais‟ para designar um conjunto de itens, os quais seriam, num sentido filosófico, concretos. No terceiro Capítulo, analisamos o modo como Strawson usa a noção de referência identificadora para chegar até as noções de independente e básico, as quais devem estar relacionadas com a noção de objetos materiais, caso o filósofo pretenda defender um realismo metafísico. Através das análises da noção de referência, Strawson chega até a noção de quadro unitário de conhecimento de particulares, o qual é necessário para que possamos referir não-demonstrativamente para particulares espaço-temporais. Porém, uma condição dessa unidade consiste na existência independente de particulares espaço-temporais. Não obstante, objetos materiais são básicos na categoria de particulares espaço-temporais, pois, a identificação de particulares de várias subcategorias descansa sobre a identificação de objetos materiais. No final, serão analisadas algumas críticas aos argumentos de Strawson e será indicada a possibilidade da formulação de outro argumento em suporte da argumentação de Strawson.