This paper examines the efficiency of the Swedish stock market, by testing if it is possible to create an excess return by the use of technical trading rules. According to the efficient market hypothesis and the random walk theory, in an efficient market it is not possible to predict the future stock prices by analyzing historical stock prices. The profitability of tech-nical analysis and technical trading rules has been researched and debated extensively, but economists have yet to reach a consensus. Because of this we find it useful to continue to study technical trading rules, and in our case we will focus exclusively on the Swedish stock market. We have done this by applying the trading technique moving average on the Swe-dish stock exchange. We have used the OMX Stockholm 30 Index, OMXS30, the 30 most traded stocks on the Stockholm stock exchange. From Nasdaq OMX we have obtained the daily closing prices from 1986-09-30 - 2012-01-27. Our test shows support for technical trading rules. The best performing moving average is the (1,50,0), which substantially beats the buy-and-hold strategy while being statistically confident to 99%. We have also tested our data set for a unit root, if a unit root exists it implies that the data set is following a random walk. We cannot reject that there is a unit root with α = 0.10 in our data set, alt-hough it would be rejected with α = 0.11. Our result forces us to reject that the Swedish stock market is efficient which is consistent with previous research made one the Swedish stock market.

In late summer 2006 we experienced historically high oil prices, and due to this event we found it appropriate to investigate what influence oil price changes has on the Swedish stock market. The purpose with our research was to see the affect that oil price changes has on the Swedish economy, and if the influence of the oil price is still as strong as it used to be. To help us draw conclusions we have applied the Arbitrage Pricing Theory. With use of statistical analysis we have been able to examine the relation between oil prices and other macroeconomic variables, and how these affect the Affärsvärlden Generalindex. Our results show that oil has a significant influence, our regression analysis show that a 1 unit increase in the oil price results in a 0.08 unit decrease in Affärsvärldens Generalindex. Our study has also given us indications that the oil price effect on the Swedish economy has decreased since the mid 1980´s. We can also draw conclusions that since the 1970´s, society has moved from heavy oil dependency towards a more diversified usage of energy sources. The results for Sweden are in line with the influence of oil has on other world economies. / Under sensommaren 2006 erfarde vi historiskt höga oljepriser. Med denna händelse som grund fann vi det relevant att undersöka oljans påverkan på den svenska ekonomin. Syftet med denna uppsats var att se hur skillnader i oljepriset påverkar Sveriges ekonomi och om oljan fortfarande har en lika stark påverkan som tidigare. Som verktyg för att påvisa detta har vi använt oss av ”Arbitrage Pricing Theory”. Med hjälp av statistisk analys har vi kunnat se påverkan av oljeprisfluktuationer och andra makroekonomiska variablers påverkan på ekonomin. Affärsvärldens Generalindex har använts som definition av ekonomin. Våra resultat visar att oljan har en signifikant påverkan på svensk ekonomi, en 1 enheters uppgång av oljepriset resulterar i en minskning med 0,08 enheter på Affärsvärldens Generalindex. Vår studie ger även indikationer att oljeprisets påverkan har minskat sedan mitten av 1980-talet. Vi kan också utläsa att samhället har skiftat från ett tungt oljeberoende i energiförbrukning mot mer diversifierade typer av energikällor, detta sedan 1970-talet. Resultaten visar även att Sveriges relation till olja är i linje med andra världsekonomier.

<p>In late summer 2006 we experienced historically high oil prices, and due to this event we found it appropriate to investigate what influence oil price changes has on the Swedish stock market. The purpose with our research was to see the affect that oil price changes has on the Swedish economy, and if the influence of the oil price is still as strong as it used to be. To help us draw conclusions we have applied the Arbitrage Pricing Theory. With use of statistical analysis we have been able to examine the relation between oil prices and other macroeconomic variables, and how these affect the Affärsvärlden Generalindex. Our results show that oil has a significant influence, our regression analysis show that a 1 unit increase in the oil price results in a 0.08 unit decrease in Affärsvärldens Generalindex. Our study has also given us indications that the oil price effect on the Swedish economy has decreased since the mid 1980´s. We can also draw conclusions that since the 1970´s, society has moved from heavy oil dependency towards a more diversified usage of energy sources. The results for Sweden are in line with the influence of oil has on other world economies.</p> / <p>Under sensommaren 2006 erfarde vi historiskt höga oljepriser. Med denna händelse som grund fann vi det relevant att undersöka oljans påverkan på den svenska ekonomin. Syftet med denna uppsats var att se hur skillnader i oljepriset påverkar Sveriges ekonomi och om oljan fortfarande har en lika stark påverkan som tidigare. Som verktyg för att påvisa detta har vi använt oss av ”Arbitrage Pricing Theory”. Med hjälp av statistisk analys har vi kunnat se påverkan av oljeprisfluktuationer och andra makroekonomiska variablers påverkan på ekonomin. Affärsvärldens Generalindex har använts som definition av ekonomin. Våra resultat visar att oljan har en signifikant påverkan på svensk ekonomi, en 1 enheters uppgång av oljepriset resulterar i en minskning med 0,08 enheter på Affärsvärldens Generalindex. Vår studie ger även indikationer att oljeprisets påverkan har minskat sedan mitten av 1980-talet. Vi kan också utläsa att samhället har skiftat från ett tungt oljeberoende i energiförbrukning mot mer diversifierade typer av energikällor, detta sedan 1970-talet. Resultaten visar även att Sveriges relation till olja är i linje med andra världsekonomier.</p>

When a company decides to sell their shares to the public for the first time it is called an initial public offering. For quite some time, the literature on the subject has come to the conclusion that the companies going public often undervalue their share price prior to the initial public offering resulting in an abnormal positive return on the first trading day, also known as initial public offering underpricing.  This thesis aims to study whether initial public offering underpricing occurred in the Swedish markets during the selected time period of 2000-2022. The thesis also seeked to find whether there was a significant difference in underpricing depending if the company was listed on OMX Stockholm or First north growth market. Further, with the help of previous research on the topic, a few independent variables were retrieved and later regressed against the initial return on the first trading day and thus seeing if these variables explains if a company will see an increase in the share price on the first trading day or not. The independent variables collected were age of the company at the time of the initial public offering, deal size, the market the company was listed on and lastly the year the company was listed on the stock exchange. The study concluded that there was a significant underpricing in Swedish initial public offerings during the studied time period with an average first day initial return of 12.56%. However, the thesis further concluded that neither of the independent variables studied had a significant effect on the initial return on the first trading day. Neither could the thesis conclude that there was a significant difference in underpricing between the two studied markets, although, the sample from OMX Stockholm saw an average underpricing of 11.09% whilst first north saw an average underpricing of 13.79%.

This master's thesis investigates the connection between profit margin, return on assets, long-term debt, and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio and they relate to dividend. The study examines whether companies with increasing dividends and companies with decreasing and constant dividends have significantly different effects on the P/E ratio. The results show that profit margin has a positive and statistically significant impact on the P/E ratio in companies with increasing dividends, demonstrating the significance of profitability in affecting investor valuation. Long-term debt and return on assets, however, do not appear to be significantly correlated with the P/E ratio in this group. In contrast, none of the financial performance variables have a major impact on the P/E ratio in companies with decreasing and constant dividends. The research highlights that it is important to take dividend distribution into account as a differentiating element when examining the connection between financial performance and the P/E ratio. However, the study cannot accept or reject the null hypothesis entirely as the results lack statistical significance.

This master thesis is aimed towards answering the question What is the contribution from a company’s sector with regards to its survival of a financial crisis? with the sub question Can we use survival analysis on financial data to answer this?. Thus survival analysis is used to answer our main question which is seldom used on financial data. This is interesting since it will study how well survival analysis can be used on financial data at the same time as it will evaluate if all companies experiences a financial crisis in the same way. The dataset consists of all companies traded on the Swedish stock market during 2008. The results show that the survival method is very suitable the data that is used. The sector a company operated in has a significant effect. However the power is to low too give any indication of specific differences between the different sectors. Further on it is found that the group of smallest companies had much better survival than larger companies.

<p>Abstract</p><p>Market efficiency is a highly debated topic within the academic research field of finance.</p><p>Several studies have presented that the return on stocks may be predictable by employing the</p><p>momentum investment strategy, which contradicts the Efficient Market Hypothesis in</p><p>exchange market. There is extensive international evidence, on an academic level that the</p><p>momentum investment strategy yields positive abnormal returns when short-term periods are</p><p>considered. This paper examines the profitability of the momentum investment strategy in</p><p>Canadian and Swedish stock markets during January 2000 to December 2006. To investigate</p><p>the strategy, two separate portfolios of winners and losers, each portfolio containing 50</p><p>stocks, are created for each market. Then the momentum strategy, which consists in long</p><p>position in past best performing stocks and short positions in past worst performing stocks, is</p><p>run for each exchange market. Results show that the strategy generates statistical significance</p><p>at the 5% level for Canadian market for 9-month holding period, and with the level of</p><p>significance at the 10% for Swedish market for the 6 and 9-month holding periods after</p><p>excluding the data for the year 2002. Moreover, results show that the strategy is even stronger</p><p>in the level of significance during the bull trend of the markets. The paper confirms the</p><p>existence of the momentum anomaly in TSX and SSE.</p>

<p>Bakgrund: 4 av 5 svenskar äger aktier i någon form och det är många som är intresserade av att maximera sin avkastning. Det har lett till att det skrivs mycket i media om olika sätt att få avkastning högre än marknaden. Om det skulle vara möjligt att nå överavkastning är det en indikation på att marknaden inte är effektiv.</p><p>Syfte: Syftet med studien är att undersöka om det historiskt har gått att nå en överavkastning genom tillämpa momentum- eller motsatstrategin på den svenska aktiemarknaden. Syftet är även att testa om den svenska aktiemarknaden har varit effektiv i svag form.</p><p>Genomförande: Momentumstrategin testades genom att portföljer formades med de tio aktier som har haft högst relativ prisstyrka de senaste sex månaderna. Portföljernas marknadsjusterade avkastning har sedan följts i sex månader. Motsatsstrategin testades genom att vinnarportföljer formades med de tio aktier som har haft högst avkastning de senaste tre åren och förlorarportföljer formades för de med lägst avkastning. Portföljernas marknadsjusterade avkastningar under de kommande tre åren jämfördes sedan med varandra.</p><p>Slutsats: Vi har kommit fram till att det har gått att nå en överavkastning med hjälp av momentumstrategin och att den har fungerat bäst i perioder av stabila uppgångar. Det har däremot inte gått att få överavkastning med hjälp av motsatsstrategin. Vi menar att resultatet beror på att marknaden underreagerar. Därmed kan vi säga att den svenska aktiemarknaden under den undersöka tidsperioden inte har varit effektiv i svag form.</p> / <p>Background: 4 out of 5 Swedes own stocks in some form and many people are interested in maximising their profits. This has led to a lot of publicity in ways to get profits higher than the market. The eventual possibility to receive abnormal returns indicates that the market is inefficient.</p><p>Purpose: The purpose of the study is to investigate if it historically has been possible to receive abnormal returns by implementing momentum- and contrarian strategies on the Swedish stock market. The purpose is also to test if the Swedish stock market has been efficient in weak form.</p><p>Implementation: The momentum strategy was tested by forming portfolios consisting of the ten stocks with the highest relative price strength over the last six months. The portfolio abnormal returns were then followed for the following six months. The contrarian strategy was tested by forming winner portfolios consisting of the ten stocks with the highest abnormal returns over the last three years. Loser portfolios were formed of the ten stocks with the lowest abnormal returns over the last three years. The portfolios abnormal returns were then compared to each other for the following three years.</p><p>Conclusion: We have reached the conclusion that it has been possible to receive abnormal returns by using the momentum strategy. It has been the most successful in periods of steady raises. The contrarian strategy has not generated any excess returns. We believe that reason for the results is that the market under reacts. Therefore we can state that the Swedish stock market not has been efficient in weak form during the examined period.</p>

Bakgrund: 4 av 5 svenskar äger aktier i någon form och det är många som är intresserade av att maximera sin avkastning. Det har lett till att det skrivs mycket i media om olika sätt att få avkastning högre än marknaden. Om det skulle vara möjligt att nå överavkastning är det en indikation på att marknaden inte är effektiv. Syfte: Syftet med studien är att undersöka om det historiskt har gått att nå en överavkastning genom tillämpa momentum- eller motsatstrategin på den svenska aktiemarknaden. Syftet är även att testa om den svenska aktiemarknaden har varit effektiv i svag form. Genomförande: Momentumstrategin testades genom att portföljer formades med de tio aktier som har haft högst relativ prisstyrka de senaste sex månaderna. Portföljernas marknadsjusterade avkastning har sedan följts i sex månader. Motsatsstrategin testades genom att vinnarportföljer formades med de tio aktier som har haft högst avkastning de senaste tre åren och förlorarportföljer formades för de med lägst avkastning. Portföljernas marknadsjusterade avkastningar under de kommande tre åren jämfördes sedan med varandra. Slutsats: Vi har kommit fram till att det har gått att nå en överavkastning med hjälp av momentumstrategin och att den har fungerat bäst i perioder av stabila uppgångar. Det har däremot inte gått att få överavkastning med hjälp av motsatsstrategin. Vi menar att resultatet beror på att marknaden underreagerar. Därmed kan vi säga att den svenska aktiemarknaden under den undersöka tidsperioden inte har varit effektiv i svag form. / Background: 4 out of 5 Swedes own stocks in some form and many people are interested in maximising their profits. This has led to a lot of publicity in ways to get profits higher than the market. The eventual possibility to receive abnormal returns indicates that the market is inefficient. Purpose: The purpose of the study is to investigate if it historically has been possible to receive abnormal returns by implementing momentum- and contrarian strategies on the Swedish stock market. The purpose is also to test if the Swedish stock market has been efficient in weak form. Implementation: The momentum strategy was tested by forming portfolios consisting of the ten stocks with the highest relative price strength over the last six months. The portfolio abnormal returns were then followed for the following six months. The contrarian strategy was tested by forming winner portfolios consisting of the ten stocks with the highest abnormal returns over the last three years. Loser portfolios were formed of the ten stocks with the lowest abnormal returns over the last three years. The portfolios abnormal returns were then compared to each other for the following three years. Conclusion: We have reached the conclusion that it has been possible to receive abnormal returns by using the momentum strategy. It has been the most successful in periods of steady raises. The contrarian strategy has not generated any excess returns. We believe that reason for the results is that the market under reacts. Therefore we can state that the Swedish stock market not has been efficient in weak form during the examined period.

Abstract Market efficiency is a highly debated topic within the academic research field of finance. Several studies have presented that the return on stocks may be predictable by employing the momentum investment strategy, which contradicts the Efficient Market Hypothesis in exchange market. There is extensive international evidence, on an academic level that the momentum investment strategy yields positive abnormal returns when short-term periods are considered. This paper examines the profitability of the momentum investment strategy in Canadian and Swedish stock markets during January 2000 to December 2006. To investigate the strategy, two separate portfolios of winners and losers, each portfolio containing 50 stocks, are created for each market. Then the momentum strategy, which consists in long position in past best performing stocks and short positions in past worst performing stocks, is run for each exchange market. Results show that the strategy generates statistical significance at the 5% level for Canadian market for 9-month holding period, and with the level of significance at the 10% for Swedish market for the 6 and 9-month holding periods after excluding the data for the year 2002. Moreover, results show that the strategy is even stronger in the level of significance during the bull trend of the markets. The paper confirms the existence of the momentum anomaly in TSX and SSE.