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Predicting time-since-fire from forest inventory data in Saskatchewan, CanadaSchulz, Rueben J. 05 1900 (has links)
Time-since-fire data are used to describe wildfire disturbances, the major disturbance type in the Boreal forest, over a landscape. These data can be used to calculate various parameters about wildfire disturbances, such as size, shape and severity. Collecting time-since-fire data is expensive and time consuming; the ability to derive it from existing forest inventory data would result in availability of fire data over larger areas. The objective of this thesis was to explore the use of forest inventory information for the prediction of time-since-fire data in the mixedwood boreal forests of Saskatchewan.
Regression models were used to predict time-since-fire from forest inventory variables for each inventory polygon with a stand age. Non-water polygons with no stand age value were assigned values from neighbouring polygons, after splitting long polygons that potentially crossed many historic fire boundaries. This procedure filled gaps that prevented polygons from being grouped together in latter analysis. The predicted time-since-fire ages were used to generate wildfire parameters such as age-class distributions and fire cycle. Three methods were examined to group forest inventory polygons together to predict fire event polygons: simple partitions, hierarchical clustering, and spatially constrained clustering. The predicted fire event polygons were used to generate polygon size distribution wildfire metrics.
I found that there was a relationship between time-since-fire and forest inventory variables at this study site, although the relationship was not strong. As expected, the strongest relationship was between the age of trees in a stand as indicated by the inventory and the time-since-fire. This relationship was moderately improved by including tree species composition, harvest modification value, and the ages of the surrounding polygons. Assigning no-age polygons neighbouring values and grouping the forest inventory polygons improved the predicted time-since-fire results when compared spatially to the observed time-since-fire data. However, a satisfactory method of comparing polygon shapes was not found, and the map outputs were highly dependent on the grouping method and parameters used. Overall it was found that forest inventory data did not have sufficient detail and accuracy to be used to derive high quality time-since-fire information.
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Effect of Risk and Prognosis Factors on Breast Cancer Survival: Study of a Large Dataset with a Long Term Follow-upWang, Hongwei 28 July 2012 (has links)
The main goal of this study is to seek the effects of some risk and prognostic factors contributing to survival of female invasive breast cancer in United States. The study presents the survival analysis for the adult female invasive breast cancer based on the datasets chosen from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program of National Cancer Institute (NCI). In this study, the Cox proportional hazard regression model and logistic regression model were employed for statistical analysis. The odds ratios (OR), hazard ratios (HR) and confidence interval (C.I.) were obtained for the risk and prognosis factors. The study results showed that some risk and prognosis factors, such as the demographic factors (race and age), social and family factor (marital status), biomedical factors (tumor size, disease stage, tumor markers and tumor cell differentiation level etc.) and type of treatment patients received had significant effects on survival of the female invasive breast cancer patients.
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The Q Theory of Housing Investment in Taiwan ¡X An Empirical TestChen, Chien-Cheng 24 July 2012 (has links)
Housing investment plays a vital role in the real estate market. Although the housing investment has been extensively investigated, the application of Tobin¡¦s Q theory is relatively minor. Hence, the purpose of this study is to apply Tobin¡¦s Q theory to analyze housing investment, using quarterly data for Taipei City from 1973 Q2 to 2010 Q4. The Q ratio numerator is the pre-sale housing price and the denominator represents the value of the rent. The empirical model is estimated by using building permits and use permits as measures of housing investment. Moreover, because the housing market is imperfect, this study applies the threshold regression model to test whether different effects exist in the Q ratio. Finally, this study also compares housing investment in five cities. In conclusion, these findings imply that the Q ratio has a positive relationship with housing investment, as well as a threshold effect. Furthermore, the local housing investments are affected differently by local variables.
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Health disparity and the built environment: spatial disparity and environmental correlates of health status, obesity, and health disparityKim, Eun Jung 15 May 2009 (has links)
Increasing evidence suggests that the environment is related to many public
health challenges. Unequal distributions of services and resources needed for healthy
lifestyles may contribute to increasing levels of health disparity. However, empirical
studies are not sufficient to understand the relationship between health disparity and the
built environment.
This dissertation examines how health disparity are associated with the built
environment and if the environmental conditions that support physical activity and
healthy diet are associated with lower health disparity. This research uses a multidisciplinary
approach, drawing from urban planning, regional economics and public
health.
The data came from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, and the
GIS derived environmental data and the 608-respondent survey data from a larger study
conducted in urbanized King County, Washington. Health disparity was measured with
the Gini-coefficient, and health status and obesity were used as indicators of health. Hot spot analysis was used to identify the spatial aggregations of high health disparity, and
multiple regression models identified the environmental correlates of health disparity.
The overall trend showed that disparity has increased in most states in the US
over the past decade and the southern states showed the highest disparity levels. Strong
spatial autocorrelations were found for disparities, indicating that disparity levels are not
equally distributed across different geographic areas. From the multivariate analyses
estimating disparity levels, spatial regression models significantly improved the overall
model fit compared to the ordinary least-square models. Areas with more supportive
built environments for physical activity had lower health disparities, including proximity
to downtown (+) and access to parks (+), day care centers (+), offices (+), schools (+),
theaters (+), big box shopping centers (-), and libraries (-). Overall results showed that
the built environment, compared to the personal factors, was more strongly correlated
with health disparities.
This study brings attention to the problem of health disparity in the US, and
provides evidence supporting the existence of spatial disparity in the environmental
support for a healthy lifestyle. Further research is needed to better understand
environmental and socioeconomic conditions associated with health disparity among
more diverse population groups and in different environmental settings.
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Application of Finite Mixture Models for Vehicle Crash Data AnalysisPark, Byung Jung 2010 May 1900 (has links)
Developing sound or reliable statistical models for analyzing vehicle crashes is very
important in highway safety studies. A difficulty arises when crash data exhibit overdispersion.
Over-dispersion caused by unobserved heterogeneity is a serious problem
and has been addressed in a variety ways within the negative binomial (NB) modeling
framework. However, the true factors that affect heterogeneity are often unknown to
researchers, and failure to accommodate such heterogeneity in the model can undermine
the validity of the empirical results.
Given the limitations of the NB regression model for addressing over-dispersion of crash
data due to heterogeneity, this research examined an alternative model formulation that
could be used for capturing heterogeneity through the use of finite mixture regression
models. A Finite mixture of Poisson or NB regression models is especially useful when
the count data were generated from a heterogeneous population. To evaluate these
models, Poisson and NB mixture models were estimated using both simulated and
empirical crash datasets, and the results were compared to those from a single NB
regression model. For model parameter estimation, a Bayesian approach was adopted,
since it provides much richer inference than the maximum likelihood approach.
Using simulated datasets, it was shown that the single NB model is biased if the
underlying cause of heterogeneity is due to the existence of multiple counting processes.
The implications could be poor prediction performance and poor interpretation. Using two empirical datasets, the results demonstrated that a two-component finite mixture of
NB regression models (FMNB-2) was quite enough to characterize the uncertainty about
the crash occurrence, and it provided more opportunities for interpretation of the dataset
which are not available from the standard NB model. Based on the models from the
empirical dataset (i.e., FMNB-2 and NB models), their relative performances were also
examined in terms of hotspot identification and accident modification factors. Finally,
using a simulation study, bias properties of the posterior summary statistics for
dispersion parameters in FMNB-2 model were characterized, and the guidelines on the
choice of priors and the summary statistics to use were presented for different sample
sizes and sample-mean values.
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An Empirical Analysis of Choice of Financial Instruments and Announcement EffectChen, Hsin-jung 24 June 2006 (has links)
The Company often enlarge its scale to maintain its competitive advantage by investing. When company lacks of internal funds, it will raise funds from outside. The purpose of this study is to explore how company chooses financial instruments and influence of the announcement effect on stock price. This study analyzes Taiwan listed company by the the sample period from 1993 to 2005.
There are two parts of the thesis. The first is the factor of choosing certain financial instrument. We use logistic regression model, both binary and multinomial, to figure it out. The second is the influence of the announcement effect has on the stock price. We use event study to find whether abnormal return exists.
Conclusion:
1. If the company¡¦s size is larger, it will choose debt to raise funds.
2. If R&D expense relative to net sales, debt ratio, the proportion of intangible asset are higher, the company will be tend to raise funds by choosing convertible bond
3. If the stock price is overvalued, the company will choose stock.
4. Taiwan listed company will experience negative stock return whatever it chooses stock, debt, or convertible bond.
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noneTzeng, Ruel-Wen 07 August 2002 (has links)
none
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The Impact of Advertising on Investors¡¦ Behavior: Disposition Effect and Threshold EffectLee, Wan-shiuan 25 June 2009 (has links)
Previous researches find that advertising expenditure and performance can significantly influence fund flows. With a unique data from Securities Investment Trust and Consulting Association (SITCA) of Taiwan, we can use monthly data of exact purchasing amounts, redemption amounts and advertising expenditures to gain more insight into investors¡¦ investment behavior. We examine the impact of advertising on mutual fund investors¡¦ behavior and the performance-flow relationship. This paper differs from the existing literature, which only concerned with the average advertising effect on fund flow. We follow the procedure of Tsay (1989) time series autoregressive processes model and modify it to cross-section variables threshold model to examine whether threshold effect of advertising on fund flows exists. We generate four empirical results. (1) Performance is significantly associated with higher fund flows. (2) Advertising is significantly associated with higher fund flows. (3) Disposition effect exists in Taiwanese mutual fund market and advertising expenditure can partially enhance the disposition effect. (4) We also measure the threshold effect of advertising on fund flows.
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An Empirical Study on Housing Price in China Under Macro Control Measures石淑慧, Shih, Shu-Hui Unknown Date (has links)
The price of real estate is the result of economical operation and, most importantly, regulation mechanism of resource distribution for real estate industry. Since the process of economic reform began in 1978, there have been several times that the Chinese government imposed contractive measures intended to slow down the economic growth. This paper applies insights from economic theory to explain recent housing price patterns in China’s four largest metropolitan areas. (Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou) and discusses how the Chinese Government’s stance and policy affect the development of real estate. By examining the degree of impact on the housing market as a result of Macro Control Measures, excluding other housing market drivers; the empirical results revealed the degree of effectiveness by the Chinese Government administrative control over the housing market vary across the regions.
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Geometric Optimization of Retroreflective Raised Pavement MarkersGuo, Lukai 01 January 2013 (has links)
As the field service life of retroreflective raised pavement marker (RRPM) is much shorter than expected, it is necessary to identify the causes and thus improve the RRPM structural design to mitigate the main failure modes, such as poor retention from pavements, structural damage, and loss of retroreflectivity. One strategy for extending RRPM service life is to enhance RRPM geometric characteristics to decrease critical stresses in markers. The main purpose of this thesis is to analyze the relationship between stresses, failure modes, and RRPM profiles. Based on this research, some measures are suggested in order to avoid corresponding failure modes by optimizing RRPM profiles.
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