This thesis consists of three essays that explore the dynamics of interconnected markets and examine the relationships between markets, investor behavior, and fundamental characteristics of the firm and the economy. In the first essay, we investigate the role of trade credit links in generating cross-border return predictability between international firms. Using data from 43 countries from 1993 to 2009, we find that firms with high trade credit in producer countries have stock returns that are strongly predictable based on the returns of their associated customer countries. This behavior is especially prevalent among firms with high levels of foreign sales. To better understand this effect we develop an asset pricing model in which firms in different countries are connected by trade credit links. The model offers further predictions about this phenomenon, including stronger predictability during periods of high credit constraints and low uninformed trading volume. We find supportive empirical evidence for these predictions. The second essay investigates the dynamics of commodity futures volatility. I derive the variance decomposition for the futures basis to show how unexpected excess returns result from new information about expected future interest rates, convenience yields, and risk premia. Using data on major commodity futures markets and global bilateral commodity trade, I analyze the extent to which commodity volatility is related to fundamental uncertainty arising from increased emerging market demand and macroeconomic uncertainty, and control for the potential impact of financial frictions introduced by changing market structure and index trading. I find that a higher concentration in the emerging market importers of a commodity is associated with higher futures volatility. Commodity futures volatility is significantly predictable using variables capturing macroeconomic uncertainty. The third essay investigates the differential explanatory power of consumer (importing countries) and producer (exporting countries) risk in explaining the volatility of commodity spot premia and term premia using trade-weighted indices of GDP volatility. Using data for major commodity futures markets, bilateral commodity trade, exchange rates, and GDP for countries trading these commodities, I test hypotheses on the heterogeneous impact of consumer and producer shocks, potentially driven by differences in hedging preferences and investment planning horizons. Producer risk is significant for both short-dated and long-dated maturities, while consumer risk has greater explanatory power for the volatility of the term spread.

This thesis analyzes the effect of the Czech National Bank's (CNB) communica- tion on the interest rate volatility (PRJBOR reference rate). Starting with the literature survey about the central bank communication in the world, I focus on the literature that concerns the CNB. To model the CNB's communication, I use the GARCH(l,1), EGARCH(l,1) and TARCH(l,1) models. I have created a unique data set containing the dummy variables for the CNB communication. The results are as follows: (a) the CNB's communication tends to decrease the volatility, (b) timing of the communication has a key role as the comments closer to the meeting have bigger calming effect, and that (c) there is no clear effect concerning the comments of the Bank Board members in the media. JEL Classification Keywords E43, E44, E52, E58 Czech National Bank, monetary policy signaling, central bank communication, the term structure of interest rates, GARCH analysis Author's email karasp@email.cz Supervisors's email roman. horvath@gmail.com

Es sei ein Heath-Jarrow-Morton Zinsstrukturmodell df(t,T) = alpha(t,T)dt + sigma(t,T)dX_t gegeben, angetrieben von einem mehrdimensionalen Semimartingal X. Das Ziel dieser Arbeit besteht darin, die Existenz endlich dimensionaler Realisierungen für solche Modelle zu untersuchen, wobei wir als treibende Prozesse die Klasse der Grigelionis Prozesse wählen, die insbesondere Levy Prozesse enthält. Zur Bearbeitung der Fragestellung werden zwei veschiedene Ansätze verfolgt. Wir dehnen die Ideen aus der Differenzialgeometrie von Björk und Svensson (2001) auf die vorliegende Situation aus und zeigen, dass das in der zitierten Arbeit bewiesene Kriterium für die Existenz endlich dimensionaler Realisierungen in unserem Fall als notwendiges Kriterium dienlich ist. Dieses Resultat wird auf konkrete Volatilitätsstrukturen angewandt. Im Kontext von sogenannten Benchmark Realisierungen, die eine natürliche Verallgemeinerung von Short Rate Realisierungen darstellen, leiten wir Integro-Differenzialgleichungen her, die für die Untersuchung der Existenz endlich dimensionaler Realisierungen hilfreich sind. Als Verallgemeinerung eines Resultats von Jeffrey (1995) beweisen wir außerdem, dass Zinsstrukturmodelle, die eine generische Benchmark Realisierung besitzen, notwendigerweise eine singuläre Hessesche Matrix haben. Beide Ansätze zeigen, dass neue Phänomene auftreten, sobald der treibende Prozess X Sprünge macht. Es gibt dann auf einmal nur noch sehr wenige Zinsstrukturmodelle, die endlich dimensionale Realisierungen zulassen, was ein beträchtlicher Unterschied zu solchen Modellen ist, die von einer Brownschen Bewegung angetrieben werden. Aus diesem Grund zeigen wir, dass für die in der Literatur oft behandelten Modelle mit deterministischer Richtungsvolatilität eine Folge von endlich dimensionalen Systemen existiert, die gegen das Zinsmodell konvergieren. / Let f(t,T) be a term structure model of Heath-Jarrow-Morton type df(t,T) = alpha(t,T)dt + sigma(t,T)dX_t, driven by a multidimensional semimartingale X. Our objective is to study the existence of finite dimensional realizations for equations of this kind. Choosing the class of Grigelionis processes (including in particular Levy processes) as driving processes, we approach this problem from two different directions. Extending the ideas from differential geometry in Björk and Svensson (2001), we show that the criterion for the existence of finite dimensional realizations, proven in the aforementioned paper, still serves as a necessary condition in our setup. This result is applied to concrete volatility structures. In the context of benchmark realizations, which are a natural generalization of short rate realizations, we derive integro-differential equations, suitable for the analysis of the realization problem. Generalizing Jeffrey (1995), we also prove a result stating that forward rate models, which generically possess a benchmark realization, must have a singular Hessian matrix. Both approaches reveal that, with regard to the results known for driving Wiener processes, new phenomena emerge, as soon as the driving process X has jumps. In particular, the occurrence of jumps severely limits the range of models that admit finite dimensional realizations. For this reason we prove, for the often considered case of deterministic direction volatility structures, the existence of finite dimensional systems converging to the forward rate model.

Diese Arbeit besteht aus vier Essays, die empirische und methodische Beiträge zu den Gebieten der Finanzmarktökonomik und der Makroökonomik liefern. Der erste Essay beschäftigt sich mit der Spezifikation der Investoren verfügbaren Informationsmenge in Tests bedingter Kapitalmarktmodelle. Im Speziellen schlägt es die Verwendung dynamischer Faktoren als Instrumente vor. Diese fassen per Konstruktion die Information in einer Vielzahl von Variablen zusammen und stellen daher intuitive Maße für die Investoren zur Verfügung stehenden Informationen dar. Es wird gezeigt, dass so die Schätzfehler bedingter Modelle im Vergleich zu traditionellen, auf einzelnen Indikatoren beruhenden Modellvarianten substantiell verringert werden. Ausgehend von Ergebnissen, dass die Zentralbank zur Festlegung des kurzfristigen Zinssatzes eine große Menge an Informationen berücksichtigt, wird im zweiten Essay im Rahmen eines affinen Zinsstrukturmodells eine ähnliche Idee verwandt. Speziell wird die Dynamik des kurzfristigen Zinses im Rahmen einer Faktor-Vektorautoregression modelliert. Aufbauend auf dieser dynamischen Charakterisierung der Geldpolitik wird dann die Zinsstruktur unter der Annahme fehlender Arbitragemöglichkeiten hergeleitet. Das resultierende Modell liefert bessere Vorhersagen US-amerikanischer Anleihenzinsen als eine Reihe von Vergleichsmodellen. Der dritte Essay analysiert die Vorhersagekraft der Zinsstrukturkomponenten "level", "slope", und "curvature" im Rahmen eines dynamischen Faktormodells für makroökonomische und Zinsdaten. Das Modell wird mit einem Metropolis-within-Gibbs Sampling Verfahren geschätzt, und Überraschungsänderungen der drei Komponenten werden mit Hilfe von Null- und Vorzeichenrestriktionen identifiziert. Die Analyse offenbart, dass der "curvature"-Faktor informativer in Bezug auf die zukünftige Entwicklung der Zinsstruktur und der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Aktivität ist als bislang vermutet. Der vierte Essay legt eine monatliche Chronologie der Konjunkturzyklen im Euro-Raum vor. Zunächst wird mit Hilfe einer verallgemeinerten Interpolationsmethode eine monatliche Zeitreihe des europäischen BIP konstruiert. Anschließend wird auf diese Zeitreihe ein Datierungsverfahren angewandt, das kurze und flache Konjunkturphasen ausschließt. / This thesis consists of four essays of independent interest which make empirical and methodological contributions to the fields of financial economics and macroeconomics. The first essay deals with the proper specification of investors’ information set in tests of conditional asset pricing models. In particular, it advances the use of dynamic factors as conditioning variables. By construction, dynamic factors summarize the information in a large number of variables and are therefore intuitively appealing proxies for the information set available to investors. The essay demonstrates that this approach substantially reduces the pricing errors implied by conditional models with respect to traditional approaches that use individual indicators as instruments. Following previous evidence that the central bank uses a large set of conditioning information when setting short-term interest rates, the second essay employs a similar insight in a model of the term structure of interest rates. Precisely, the dynamics of the short-term interest rate are modelled using a Factor-Augmented Vector-Autoregression. Based on this dynamic characterization of monetary policy, the term structure of interest rates is derived under the assumption of no-arbitrage. The resulting model is shown to provide superior out-of-sample forecasts of US government bond yields with respect to a number of benchmark models. The third essay analyzes the predictive information carried by the yield curve components level, slope, and curvature within a joint dynamic factor model of macroeconomic and interest rate data. The model is estimated using a Metropolis-within-Gibbs sampling approach and unexpected changes of the yield curve components are identified employing a combination of zero and sign restrictions. The analysis reveals that the curvature factor is more informative about the future evolution of the yield curve and of economic activity than has previously been acknowledged. The fourth essay provides a monthly business cycle chronology for the Euro area. A monthly series of Euro area real GDP is constructed using an interpolation routine that nests previously suggested approaches as special cases. Then, a dating routine is applied to the interpolated series which excludes business cycle phases that are short and flat.

This paper estimates rates of return across the gross wealth distribution in eight European countries. Like differential saving rates, differential rates of return matter for Post Keynesian theory, because they impact the income and wealth distribution and add an explosive element to growth models. We show that differential rates of return matter empirically by merging data on household balance sheets with long-run returns for individual asset categories. We find that (1) the composition of wealth differentiates between three socioeconomic groups: 30% are asset-poor, 65% are middle-class home owners, and the top 5% are business-owning capitalists; (2) rates of return rise across all groups; and (3) rates of return broadly follow a log-shaped function across the distribution, where inequality in the lower half of the distribution is higher than in the upper half. If socioeconomic groups are collapsed into the bottom 95% workers and top 5% capitalists, then rates of return are 5.6% for the former and 7.2% for the latter. / Series: Ecological Economic Papers

This paper estimates rates of return across the gross wealth distribution in eight European countries. Like differential saving rates, differential rates of return matter for Post Keynesian theory, because they impact the income and wealth distribution and add an explosive element to growth models. We show that differential rates of return matter empirically by merging data on household balance sheets with long-run returns for individual asset categories. We find that (1) the composition of wealth differentiates between three socioeconomic groups: 30% are asset-poor, 65% are middle-class home owners, and the top 5% are business-owning capitalists; (2) rates of return rise across all groups; and (3) rates of return broadly follow a log-shaped function across the distribution, where inequality in the lower half of the distribution is higher than in the upper half. If socioeconomic groups are collapsed into the bottom 95% workers and top 5% capitalists, then rates of return are 5.6% for the former and 7.2% for the latter. / Series: Ecological Economic Papers

本研究主要是針對投資型年金之資產負債管理作探討，其中是就規避利率風險對於資產負債管理上的影響以及分析資產配置最適化作為研究的架構，而所利用的研究方法乃是取決於建構利率隨機模型並輔以免疫理論與Markowitz投資組合理論，以期在規避利率風險的同時，亦能將資產配置達至最佳化。 首先，為實際模擬出符合現實經濟環境變動下的隨機利率期間模型，本研究利用C.I.R利率期間結構模型來建構年金保單期間的利率結構，並且由於投資型年金之保單價值的累積特性，因此本研究同時亦建構出連接保單價值的投資資產之報酬率型態，進而模擬出各期之現金流量以及各項投資資產的存續期間；再者，藉由Markowitz投資組合理論，以在免疫條件之限制下進行最適資產配置之評估。 最後，以某知名的保險公司所推出的投資型年金商品作為本研究之實證對象，透過模擬之方法，將研究模型中之各項參數予以評估，並且根據上述之研究過程將免疫理論與投資組合理論相連接，以檢視投資型年金商品在規避利率風險的狀態下，其最適之資產配置比例是否與現行法令之規範相牴觸，而能給予適時之建議。另外，由本實證結果可知，經由本研究的分析流程，可以有效地給予年金管理者規劃出年金資產負債管理時的最適投資組合比例，並且在增加外國投資資產時，更能有效的增加年金資產之報酬，同時也不影響保險法對於投資資產的比例與總金額之限制。再者，對於探討規避利率風險前後之資產組合之資產報酬之變化時，可以進一步了解到，當年金管理者在運用免疫策略來規避利率風險時，其所面對的風險成本之多寡，以作為制定避險決策時的依據。 / This research explores the asset-liability management (ALM) for the Investment-Link-Annuity. Two aspects investigated in this research are the interest rate risk and the optimal asset allocation. Moreover, the major issue investigated here is the trade-off between the optimal investment return and the hedge of interest rate risk. We refer this trade-off as ALM cost. By using stochastic interest rate model, Immunization theory and Portfolio Selection Model, we construct an ALM model to achieve the optimal asset allocation given on hedging the interest rate risk under the immunization strategies for the insurance company. First, we utilize the public trading data for investment market in Taiwan and in USA from 1985 to 2000 and the investment-link annuity product of a well-know insurance company in Taiwan to simulate the cash flow and demonstrate the implementation of our model. By analyzing different simulations under various scenarios, the empirical results are as the followings: 1.The ALM cost for immunization strategies is very small, and is estimated to be about 1% to 2%. Therefore, we suggest that insurance companies should start to undertake the asset liability management as soon as possible. 2.If relaxing the investment restrictions of Insurance Law or allowing insurance company to invest in foreign investment market, the overall investment return will be increased and the ALM cost will be reduced effectively.

In the first part of this thesis, we introduce a new methodology for stress-test exercises. Our approach allows to consider richer stress-test exercises, which assess the impact of a modification of the whole distribution of asset prices' factors, rather than focusing as the common practices on a single realization of these factors, and take into account the potential reaction to the shock of the portfolio manager. The second part of the thesis is devoted to the pricing of bonds with very long-term time-to-maturity (more than ten years). Modeling the volatility of very long-term rates is a challenge, due to the constraints put by no-arbitrage assumption. As a consequence, most of the no-arbitrage term structure models assume a constant limiting rate (of infinite maturity). The second chapter investigates the compatibility of the so-called "level" factor, whose variations have a uniform impact on the modeled yield curve, with the no-arbitrage assumptions. We introduce in the third chapter a new class of arbitrage-free term structure factor models, which allows the limiting rate to be stochastic, and present its empirical properties on a dataset of US T-Bonds.

This thesis studies interest rates (even negative), interest rate derivatives and term structure of interest rates. We review the different types of interest rates and go through the evaluation of a derivative using risk-neutral and forward-neutral methods. Moreover, the construction of interest rate models (term-structure models), pricing of bonds and interest rate derivatives, using both equilibrium and no-arbitrage approaches are discussed, compared and contrasted. Further, we look at the HJM framework and the LMM model to evaluate and simulate forward curves and find the forward rates as the discount factors. Finally, the new framework (after financial crisis in 2008), under the collateral agreement (CSA) has been taken into consideration.

This doctoral thesis is a collection of four papers on the analysis of the term structure of interest rates with a focus at the intersection of macroeconomics and finance. "Risk in Macroeconomic Fundamentals and Bond Return Predictability" documents that factors related to risks underlying the macroeconomy such as expectations, uncertainty and downside (upside) macroeconomic risks are able to explain variation in bond risk premia. The information provided is found to be, to a large extent, unrelated to that contained in forward rates and current macroeconomic conditions. "Out-of-sample bond excess returns predictability" provides evidence that macroeconomic variables, risks in macroeconomic outcomes as well as the combination of these different sources of information are able to generate statistical as well as economic bond excess returns predictability in an out-of-sample setting. Results suggest that this finding is not driven by revisions in macroeconomic data. The term spread (yield curve slope) is largely used as an indicator of future economic activity. "Re-examining the predictive power of the yield curve with quantile regression" provides new evidence on the predictive ability of the term spread by studying the whole conditional distribution of GDP growth. "Modeling and forecasting the yield curve by extended Nelson-Siegel class of models: a quantile regression approach" deals with yield curve prediction. More flexible Nelson-Siegel models are found to provide better fitting to the data, even when penalizing for additional model complexity. For the forecasting exercise, quantile-based models are found to overcome all competitors. / <p>Diss. Stockholm :  Stockholm School of Economics, 2014. Introduction together with 4 papers.</p>