This thesis develops a conceptual framework to determine the probability of adopting HT canola when producers are assumed heterogeneous. The model is based on the framework developed by Fulton and Keyowski (1999), but is modified from a deterministic model to a probabilistic model. The study also considers the gross returns from adopting HT canola. Canola production in Manitoba, Canada is chosen as the region of analysis for the empirical component of the study. In 2002, 74 per cent of total canola acres in Manitoba were devoted to HT canola production. Factors such as soil type, producer risk profile, experience, productivity, and management ability are considered as potential determining factors which distinguish adopters of HT technology from non-adopters. Based on an initial assessment of Manitoba canola data, which shows the incomplete adoption of HT technology in Manitoba, a model is developed which considers adoption of a new technology as a function of the characteristics of the adopters. The conceptual model is tested empirically in two-stages. The first stage employs Ordinary Least Squares analysis to estimate the expected yield of different canola varieties to determine whether producers realize a benefit from the adoption of HT varieties. A logit analysis is conducted in the second stage, and considers different attributes of producers such as risk aversion, management ability, productivity and expected yields to determine the probability of producers adopting HT technology. The results show two primary findings. First, certain HT varieties can be shown to give producers higher returns. Second, differentiating characteristics of producers are key in determining the likely adoption of HT canola.

This thesis develops a conceptual framework to determine the probability of adopting HT canola when producers are assumed heterogeneous. The model is based on the framework developed by Fulton and Keyowski (1999), but is modified from a deterministic model to a probabilistic model. The study also considers the gross returns from adopting HT canola. Canola production in Manitoba, Canada is chosen as the region of analysis for the empirical component of the study. In 2002, 74 per cent of total canola acres in Manitoba were devoted to HT canola production. Factors such as soil type, producer risk profile, experience, productivity, and management ability are considered as potential determining factors which distinguish adopters of HT technology from non-adopters. Based on an initial assessment of Manitoba canola data, which shows the incomplete adoption of HT technology in Manitoba, a model is developed which considers adoption of a new technology as a function of the characteristics of the adopters. The conceptual model is tested empirically in two-stages. The first stage employs Ordinary Least Squares analysis to estimate the expected yield of different canola varieties to determine whether producers realize a benefit from the adoption of HT varieties. A logit analysis is conducted in the second stage, and considers different attributes of producers such as risk aversion, management ability, productivity and expected yields to determine the probability of producers adopting HT technology. The results show two primary findings. First, certain HT varieties can be shown to give producers higher returns. Second, differentiating characteristics of producers are key in determining the likely adoption of HT canola.

Title: Large claims modeling Author: Barbora Zuzáková Department: Department of Probability and Mathematical Statistics Supervisor: RNDr. Michal Pešta, Ph.D. Abstract: This thesis discusses a statistical modeling approach based on the extreme value theory to describe the behaviour of large claims of an insurance portfolio. We focus on threshold models which analyze exceedances of a high threshold. This approach has gained in popularity in recent years, as compared with the much older methods based directly on the extreme value distributions. The method is illustated using the group medical claims database recorded over the periods 1997, 1998 and 1999 maintained by the Society of Actuaries. We aim to demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms classical parametric distri- butions and thus enables to estimate high quantiles or the probable maximum loss more precisely. Keywords: threshold models, generalized Pareto distribution, large claims. 1

In this paper we study the dynamics of task division in threshold reinforcement models of social insect societies. Our work extends other models in order to include several factors that influence the behavior of real insect colonies. Main extensions of our model are variable demands for work, age-dependent thresholds and finite life span of the individuals. It is shown how these factors influence the degree of task specialization of the individuals in a colony. Moreover, we show that the introduction of a threshold-dependent competition process between the individuals during task selection leads to the occurrence of specialists and differentiation between individuals as an emergent phenomenon that depends on the colony size. This result can help to explain the proximate mechanisms that lead to specialization in large insect colonies. Our results have implications for the fields of multi-agent systems, robotics, and nature inspired scheduling where threshold response models are used for control and regulation tasks.

No description available.

The relations between monetary policies, asset prices, and economic growth are important and fundamental questions in macroeconomics. To address these issues, several empirical works have been conducted to investigate these relations. However, few of them have documented whether these relations differ across regimes. In this context, the general motivation of this thesis is to use dependent regime models to examine these relations for the Canadian case. Chapter one empirically analyzes the interest rate behaviour of the Canadian monetary authorities by taking into account the asymmetry in the loss function. We employ a switching regime framework using two estimation strategies: First, we follow Caner and Hansen (2004) Threshold approach. Under this procedure we estimate the threshold values, using the Taylor empirical rules. Second, we estimate the asymmetric policy reaction function following Favero and Rovelli’s (2003) approach. The results reveal that the monetary authorities showed asymmetric preferences and that its reaction function can be better modeled with a nonlinear model. The main contribution of this chapter is to successfully interpret the parameters associated with the Bank of Canada preferences, something that Rodriguez (2008) could not do. Chapter two tries to estimate the interest rate behaviour of the Canadian monetary authorities by expanding the arguments of the loss function for fluctuations in asset prices. Using the same methodology as in the first chapter, our findings suggest that the augmented nonlinear reaction function is a good fit for the data and gives new relevant insights into the influence of asset prices on Canadian monetary policy. These findings about the role of asset prices in the reaction function of the Bank of Canada provide relevant insights regarding the opportunities and limitations of incorporating financial indicators in monetary policy decision making. They also provide financial market participants, such as analysts, bankers and traders, with a better understanding of the impact of stock market index prices on Bank of Canada policy. Stock market stabilization plays a larger role in the interest rate decisions of the Bank of Canada than it is willing to admit. Chapter three provides new evidence on the relation between inflation, relative price variability and economic growth to a panel of Canadian provinces over the period 1981-2008. We use the Bick and Nautz (2008) modified version of Hansen’s (1999) Panel Threshold Model. The evidence strongly supports the view that the relationship between inflation and economic growth is nonlinear. Further investigation suggests that relative price variability is one of the important channels through which inflation affects economic performance in Canadian provinces. When taking into account the cross-section dependence, we find that the critical threshold value slightly changes. It is desirable to keep the inflation rate in a moderate inflation regime because it may be helpful for the achievement of sustainable economic growth. The results seem to indicate that inflation that is too high or too low may have detrimental effects on economic growth.

The relations between monetary policies, asset prices, and economic growth are important and fundamental questions in macroeconomics. To address these issues, several empirical works have been conducted to investigate these relations. However, few of them have documented whether these relations differ across regimes. In this context, the general motivation of this thesis is to use dependent regime models to examine these relations for the Canadian case. Chapter one empirically analyzes the interest rate behaviour of the Canadian monetary authorities by taking into account the asymmetry in the loss function. We employ a switching regime framework using two estimation strategies: First, we follow Caner and Hansen (2004) Threshold approach. Under this procedure we estimate the threshold values, using the Taylor empirical rules. Second, we estimate the asymmetric policy reaction function following Favero and Rovelli’s (2003) approach. The results reveal that the monetary authorities showed asymmetric preferences and that its reaction function can be better modeled with a nonlinear model. The main contribution of this chapter is to successfully interpret the parameters associated with the Bank of Canada preferences, something that Rodriguez (2008) could not do. Chapter two tries to estimate the interest rate behaviour of the Canadian monetary authorities by expanding the arguments of the loss function for fluctuations in asset prices. Using the same methodology as in the first chapter, our findings suggest that the augmented nonlinear reaction function is a good fit for the data and gives new relevant insights into the influence of asset prices on Canadian monetary policy. These findings about the role of asset prices in the reaction function of the Bank of Canada provide relevant insights regarding the opportunities and limitations of incorporating financial indicators in monetary policy decision making. They also provide financial market participants, such as analysts, bankers and traders, with a better understanding of the impact of stock market index prices on Bank of Canada policy. Stock market stabilization plays a larger role in the interest rate decisions of the Bank of Canada than it is willing to admit. Chapter three provides new evidence on the relation between inflation, relative price variability and economic growth to a panel of Canadian provinces over the period 1981-2008. We use the Bick and Nautz (2008) modified version of Hansen’s (1999) Panel Threshold Model. The evidence strongly supports the view that the relationship between inflation and economic growth is nonlinear. Further investigation suggests that relative price variability is one of the important channels through which inflation affects economic performance in Canadian provinces. When taking into account the cross-section dependence, we find that the critical threshold value slightly changes. It is desirable to keep the inflation rate in a moderate inflation regime because it may be helpful for the achievement of sustainable economic growth. The results seem to indicate that inflation that is too high or too low may have detrimental effects on economic growth.

The relations between monetary policies, asset prices, and economic growth are important and fundamental questions in macroeconomics. To address these issues, several empirical works have been conducted to investigate these relations. However, few of them have documented whether these relations differ across regimes. In this context, the general motivation of this thesis is to use dependent regime models to examine these relations for the Canadian case. Chapter one empirically analyzes the interest rate behaviour of the Canadian monetary authorities by taking into account the asymmetry in the loss function. We employ a switching regime framework using two estimation strategies: First, we follow Caner and Hansen (2004) Threshold approach. Under this procedure we estimate the threshold values, using the Taylor empirical rules. Second, we estimate the asymmetric policy reaction function following Favero and Rovelli’s (2003) approach. The results reveal that the monetary authorities showed asymmetric preferences and that its reaction function can be better modeled with a nonlinear model. The main contribution of this chapter is to successfully interpret the parameters associated with the Bank of Canada preferences, something that Rodriguez (2008) could not do. Chapter two tries to estimate the interest rate behaviour of the Canadian monetary authorities by expanding the arguments of the loss function for fluctuations in asset prices. Using the same methodology as in the first chapter, our findings suggest that the augmented nonlinear reaction function is a good fit for the data and gives new relevant insights into the influence of asset prices on Canadian monetary policy. These findings about the role of asset prices in the reaction function of the Bank of Canada provide relevant insights regarding the opportunities and limitations of incorporating financial indicators in monetary policy decision making. They also provide financial market participants, such as analysts, bankers and traders, with a better understanding of the impact of stock market index prices on Bank of Canada policy. Stock market stabilization plays a larger role in the interest rate decisions of the Bank of Canada than it is willing to admit. Chapter three provides new evidence on the relation between inflation, relative price variability and economic growth to a panel of Canadian provinces over the period 1981-2008. We use the Bick and Nautz (2008) modified version of Hansen’s (1999) Panel Threshold Model. The evidence strongly supports the view that the relationship between inflation and economic growth is nonlinear. Further investigation suggests that relative price variability is one of the important channels through which inflation affects economic performance in Canadian provinces. When taking into account the cross-section dependence, we find that the critical threshold value slightly changes. It is desirable to keep the inflation rate in a moderate inflation regime because it may be helpful for the achievement of sustainable economic growth. The results seem to indicate that inflation that is too high or too low may have detrimental effects on economic growth.

近幾年來，非線性時間數列分析有快速的發展。其中的門檻自迴歸模式(SETAR)，以具有許多線性ARIMA模式所不能配適的特性而受到重視。但是，自1978年Tong建立SETAR模式以來，門檻參數估計的問題一直是SETAR模式在發展應用上的一個瓶頸。本文將探討以實數編碼遺傳演算法，結合統計學上的模式選取準則，建構SETAR模式門檻與延遲參數估計程序的可行性。並從這個基礎上，進一步地研究較精確的門檻參數估計法。 / Non-linear time series analysis has rapidly developed in recent years. Self-exciting threshold autoregression(SETAR) model of non-linear time series models is attentive, because it has some characters which linear ARIMA model fail to fit. But, It has not yet been applied widely because the question of estimation of threshold parameter limits its development and application since Tong proposed SETAR model in 1978. In this paper, we will study the feasibility which constructs a procedure of estimation of SETAR's threshod and delay parameters with real-coded genetic algorithm and statistical criterion of model selection, and develop a more precise estimation of threshold parameter in the basis.

Thesis (M.S.)--Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, 2005. / Typescript (photocopy).