近數十年來旅遊業不斷茁壯並走向多元化，在一國經濟中常扮演著舉足輕重地位。澳門為一小型開放經濟體，旅遊業是其產業龍頭及重點發展目標，對整體經濟發展至關重要。然回顧過去文獻少有考慮季節性與突發事件干擾的前提下，針對亞太地區的旅遊需求研究，加以預測方法多為單獨使用因果分析法或時間序列法。本研究在考慮該二種因素，先利用片段線性模型刻畫結構轉變的發生，再進一步結合時間序列分析法建構轉移函數模型。基於平均絕對比率誤差與均方差平方根的評比，轉移函數模型在預測澳門旅遊需求能力上確實有著較優異的表現。實證研究結果可供澳門旅遊相關業者規劃投資、觀光行銷企劃及政府單位採行總體政策參考。

Le tourisme première industrie mondiale, avec 1186 millions d’arrivées internationaux en 2015, est reconnu comme secteur prioritaire de développement des pays les moins avancés, à travers ses effets directs, indirects et induits. La Tunisie a opté depuis la fin des années 60 pour se développer à travers des activités touristiques. Depuis le début des années 70, le tourisme représente un secteur clef de l’économie tunisienne, le taux de couverture du déficit de la balance des paiements a atteint 97.7% en 1988. Toutefois et depuis le début des années 2000, le tourisme tunisien, souffre d’une image de marque de basse qualité, d’une forte dépendance vis-à-vis du marché européen, et des grands Tours Opérateurs et d’un manque de diversification. Les performances de ce secteur longtemps considéré comme vecteur de croissance économique, semblent être surestimées.Pour dépasser ces problèmes, depuis la fin des années 80, l’État a choisi une stratégie nationale de diversification à travers la mise en tourisme du Sud de la Tunisie. Actuellement, cette partie du pays est devenue une zone touristique de haut standing avec, notamment, un terrain de golf de 150 hectares et un aéroport international. Toutefois, le choix d’un développement axé sur les activités touristiques suscite des inquiétudes, vu les caractéristiques du milieu saharien, et la façon dont le tourisme saharien est commercialisé.Cette thèse a pour objet d'étudier du point de vue de l'analyse économique et d'évaluer la pertinence des choix stratégiques qui ont été faits dans le secteur du tourisme, notamment en zone saharienne, en tenant compte de la nature du milieu caractérisé par un climat aride. L’impact économique, environnemental et social du tourisme sur ces milieux fragiles pourrait être particulièrement critique.Du point de vue économique: d’un côté, ce choix correspond à une marchandisation d’un stock naturel épuisable, dont l’existence est conditionnée par l’accès à l’eau, ce qui a créé des situations de concurrence et de conflits d’usage de la ressource entre les deux secteurs touristique et agricole. D’un autre côté, la courte durée de séjour qui ne dépasse pas les 1.3 jours, peut limiter les retombées positives du tourisme dans ces régions.Du point de vue de l’environnement: le caractère rival mais non exclusif de l’eau le situerait dans la catégorie des « biens communs » dont la disponibilité peut être influencé par les « effets de masse », ce qui nous conduit à envisager un risque de « tragédie des communs ».Sur le plan social: à côté des distorsions sociales qui peuvent naître face à des situations de conflits d’usage autour de la ressource, les emplois crées dans le secteur sont saisonniers peu qualifiés, ce qui peut nuire à un vrai processus de développement local dans ces régions.Dans nos analyses, nous avons utilisé plusieurs outils et approches méthodologiques de caractères théoriques et empiriques dans un cadre macroéconomique. Nous avons mobilisé essentiellement les techniques de cointégration et les modèles à correction d’erreur adaptés à l’étude des séries temporelles en plus des analyses statistiques, sur la période 1970- 2014. / Tourism, the world's leading industry with 1186 million international arrivals in 2015, is recognized as the priority sector of development of the LCDs (Least Developed Countries) through its direct, indirect and induced effects. Since the late 1960s, Tunisia has opted for a development strategy based on tourism activities. Since the early 1970s, tourism has been a key sector of the Tunisian economy: the deficit’s rate of coverage of the payments’ balance reached 97.7% in 1988. However, since the early 2000s, Tunisian tourism suffers from a low quality brand image, a strong dependence on the European market and major tour operators and a lack of diversification. The achievements of this sector, which has been for a long time considered as a vector of economic growth, seem to be overestimated.To overcome these problems, the State has chosen, since the late 1980s, a national strategy of diversification through the setting in tourism of Southern Tunisia. Currently, this part of the country became a tourist area of high standards including a golf course of 150 hectares and an international airport. However, the choice of tourism-oriented development is of concern, given the characteristics of the Saharan environment and the way in which Saharan tourism is marketed.This thesis aims to analyze, from an economic point of view, and to evaluate the suitability and relevance of the strategic choices which have been made in the tourism sector, particularly in the Saharan zone, taking into account the nature of the milieu characterized by an arid climate. The economic, environmental and social impact of tourism on these fragile environments could be particularly critical.Economically: on the one hand, this choice corresponds to a commodification of an exhaustible natural stock, whose existence is conditioned by access to water, which has created rivalry and conflicts in the use of the resource between the two sectors, namely, tourism and agriculture. On the other hand, the short duration of stay which does not exceed on average 1.3 days, can limit the positive fallout of tourism in these regions.Environmentally: the rival but not exclusive character of water would place it in the category of "common goods" whose availability can be influenced by the "mass effects", which leads us to consider a risk of "tragedy of commons".Socially: in addition to the social distortions that can arise in situations of usage conflicts around the resource, the jobs created in this sector are seasonal and low-skilled, which may negatively affect a real local development process in these regions.In our analyses, we used several theoretical and empirical methodological tools and approaches within a macroeconomic framework. We have mainly used cointegration techniques and error correction models adapted to the study of time series in addition to statistical analyses over the period between 1970 and 2014.

My graduation thesis is aimed at the definition of the examined tourist destination Tábor, precisely the Chýnov, and to do analysis of the offers and demand of tourism in selected area. Then determine the impact of tourism on local development, to define the multiplier of tourism for the area and determine the impact of tourism on the budget of municipalities. An output of the thesis are small measures which point to development of the tourism in Chýnov. One of them is an environmental package for a city, or a proposal of own green symbol with a picture of a bat.

臺灣近年來常常以發展觀光產業，來促進地方經濟發展，最明顯的政策便屬為臺灣政府於2008年開放陸客來臺以後，帶起許多陸客旅行團來臺旅遊的熱潮。同時在媒體渲染陸客強勁的消費力之下，使旅遊周邊產業都能受惠。但根據交通部觀光局統計資料顯示，陸客來臺人數成長率已大幅下降，但這股陸客來臺風潮卻已悄悄改變了臺灣旅遊業的體質。臺灣的觀光產業應朝向高品質服務業發展，才能同時保有觀光的品質與產值，否則在觀光人次太多的情況下，將影響國人旅遊的品質。 因此本研究利用2014年國人旅遊調查資料，利用決策樹方法根據縣市做分類，分別從旅遊者的背景、旅遊規劃、旅遊內容角度出發，檢視國人於臺灣縣市旅遊的特性與滿意程度，深入探討國人旅遊之型態與品質，藉此提供國內旅遊發展上一些建議，帶動在地旅遊，甚可藉由國民外交的「口碑」向外推廣、創造旅遊需求。

Turkey, with its climate, protected bays, cultural and environmental resources is an ideal place for yacht tourism. Subsequently, yacht tourism is increasing consistently. Yacht tourism can cause unmitigated development and environmental concerns when aiming to achieve tourist satisfaction. As the demand for yacht tourism intensifies, sustainable development strategies are needed to maximize natural, cultural and economic benefits. Integration of forecasts to the strategic planning is necessary for sustainable and use of the coastal resources. In this study two different quantitative forecasting techniques - Exponential smoothing and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) methods were used to estimate the demand for yacht berthing capacity demand till 2030 in Turkey. Based on environmental, socio-economic and geographic data and the opinions gathered from stakeholders such as marina operators, local communities and government officials an allocation model was developed for the successful allocation of the predicted demand seeking social and economical growth while preserving the coastal environment. AHP was used to identify and evaluate the development, social and environmental and geographic priorities. Aiming a dynamic plan which is responsive to both national and international developments in yacht tourism, potential investment areas were determined for the investments required to accommodate the future demand. This study provides a multi dimensioned point of view to planning problem and highlights the need for sustainable and dynamic planning at delicate and high demand areas such as coasts.

The ABSA Klein Karoo National Arts Festival (KKNK) is one of the biggest and most popular Afrikaans arts festivals in South Africa, and since its modest beginnings in 1994, the festival has grown significantly with an estimated 85518 visitors attending the festival in 2010. The festival furthermore has a considerable economic impact on the host community of Oudtshoorn and the surrounding regions. The direct spending by festival visitors during the 2010 festival was estimated at R109.7 million, that consists of tickets bought at the festival, memorabilia, food, restaurants and beverages, transport, accommodation and entertainment. Benefits associated with these spending patterns include an increase in job opportunities for the residents, more entertainment opportunities, improvement of residents’ lifestyles and opportunities for expanding businesses to name but a few. However, the number of tickets bought for shows and productions at the KKNK has decreased drastically over the last six years, visitor numbers have decreased and this will result in a decrease in the total revenue and economic impact this festival has on the local community of Oudtshoorn. Therefore, the festival needs to be managed in a sustainable way through improving the entertainment offered at the festival. The festival guide and promotion material should be designed in such a way that they meet the needs of visitors and offers the necessary information services to create a unique festival experience for visitors. The specific services visitors need must be provided, such as shuttle services and security. The purpose of this research is to identify the key success factors (KSFs) in managing the visitors’ experience at the KKNK. To achieve this, a quantitative survey was done by distributing 500 questionnaires amongst the visitors to the festival in 2010 from the 1st to the 8th of April. A total of 443 completed questionnaires were received back. In Chapter 2, an analysis on the background and different theories of event tourism, special events, arts festivals, management and KSFs were investigated. Previous studies on the KSFs were also identified which rendered valuable and proved that different tourism operations including events and arts festivals have different KSFs. Furthermore, this analysis revealed that there exist different markets with their own individual needs and reasons for attending the arts festivals and therefore have their own expectations of what needs to be included in a unique festival experience. Chapter 3 consists of Article 1, and the main purpose of this article was to identify the various key success factors visitors to the KKNK see as important in satisfying their needs and providing a unique festival experience. A factor analysis was performed and identified the following KSFs: Safety and Personnel, Marketing and Accessibility, Venues, Accommodation and Ablutions, General aspects and Social impact, Parking and Restaurants and Shows and Stalls. The results indicated that professional staff, adequate safety and emergency services, clear indications, easy accessible venues, quality accommodation, affordable children activities, quality food providers and a variety of shows are important KSFs to provide visitors with an unforgettable festival experience. Chapter 4’s (Article 2) main purpose was to divide or segment visitors to the KKNK based on their travel motivation to attend the festival and their rating of the importance of the KSFs into separate markets. This purpose was achieved by performing a factor analysis on the travel motivations to identify the main travel motives for visitors to attend the KKNK, this was followed by a cluster analysis based on the travel motives where three clusters were identified namely Escapists, Festival Junkies and Culture seekers. The clusters festival organisers should focus their management skills and resources on are the Festival Junkies and Culture Seekers. After performing ANOVA and Chi–square tests the results showed statistically significant differences between the three clusters based on age, years attended the festival, length of stay, total spending, all the KSFs, gender and rock shows as visitors preferred type of show or production. The results therefore reveal that there are three different markets based on their travel motives who attend the KKNK, furthermore each of these three clusters has their own preferences, characteristics and ratings on which KSF will contribute in enhancing their festival experience. This was the first study of its kind in South Africa. Therefore, it contributes to the event management literature. Festival organisers can also use the results of this research to improve the KKNK’s sustainability and success by applying the KSFs and increase tickets sales for shows and productions, attract a younger market and attract visitors who spend more at the festival, by providing for the needs of specific markets and creating a unique festival experience for each visitor. / Thesis (M.Com. (Tourism))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2012.

The ABSA Klein Karoo National Arts Festival (KKNK) is one of the biggest and most popular Afrikaans arts festivals in South Africa, and since its modest beginnings in 1994, the festival has grown significantly with an estimated 85518 visitors attending the festival in 2010. The festival furthermore has a considerable economic impact on the host community of Oudtshoorn and the surrounding regions. The direct spending by festival visitors during the 2010 festival was estimated at R109.7 million, that consists of tickets bought at the festival, memorabilia, food, restaurants and beverages, transport, accommodation and entertainment. Benefits associated with these spending patterns include an increase in job opportunities for the residents, more entertainment opportunities, improvement of residents’ lifestyles and opportunities for expanding businesses to name but a few. However, the number of tickets bought for shows and productions at the KKNK has decreased drastically over the last six years, visitor numbers have decreased and this will result in a decrease in the total revenue and economic impact this festival has on the local community of Oudtshoorn. Therefore, the festival needs to be managed in a sustainable way through improving the entertainment offered at the festival. The festival guide and promotion material should be designed in such a way that they meet the needs of visitors and offers the necessary information services to create a unique festival experience for visitors. The specific services visitors need must be provided, such as shuttle services and security. The purpose of this research is to identify the key success factors (KSFs) in managing the visitors’ experience at the KKNK. To achieve this, a quantitative survey was done by distributing 500 questionnaires amongst the visitors to the festival in 2010 from the 1st to the 8th of April. A total of 443 completed questionnaires were received back. In Chapter 2, an analysis on the background and different theories of event tourism, special events, arts festivals, management and KSFs were investigated. Previous studies on the KSFs were also identified which rendered valuable and proved that different tourism operations including events and arts festivals have different KSFs. Furthermore, this analysis revealed that there exist different markets with their own individual needs and reasons for attending the arts festivals and therefore have their own expectations of what needs to be included in a unique festival experience. Chapter 3 consists of Article 1, and the main purpose of this article was to identify the various key success factors visitors to the KKNK see as important in satisfying their needs and providing a unique festival experience. A factor analysis was performed and identified the following KSFs: Safety and Personnel, Marketing and Accessibility, Venues, Accommodation and Ablutions, General aspects and Social impact, Parking and Restaurants and Shows and Stalls. The results indicated that professional staff, adequate safety and emergency services, clear indications, easy accessible venues, quality accommodation, affordable children activities, quality food providers and a variety of shows are important KSFs to provide visitors with an unforgettable festival experience. Chapter 4’s (Article 2) main purpose was to divide or segment visitors to the KKNK based on their travel motivation to attend the festival and their rating of the importance of the KSFs into separate markets. This purpose was achieved by performing a factor analysis on the travel motivations to identify the main travel motives for visitors to attend the KKNK, this was followed by a cluster analysis based on the travel motives where three clusters were identified namely Escapists, Festival Junkies and Culture seekers. The clusters festival organisers should focus their management skills and resources on are the Festival Junkies and Culture Seekers. After performing ANOVA and Chi–square tests the results showed statistically significant differences between the three clusters based on age, years attended the festival, length of stay, total spending, all the KSFs, gender and rock shows as visitors preferred type of show or production. The results therefore reveal that there are three different markets based on their travel motives who attend the KKNK, furthermore each of these three clusters has their own preferences, characteristics and ratings on which KSF will contribute in enhancing their festival experience. This was the first study of its kind in South Africa. Therefore, it contributes to the event management literature. Festival organisers can also use the results of this research to improve the KKNK’s sustainability and success by applying the KSFs and increase tickets sales for shows and productions, attract a younger market and attract visitors who spend more at the festival, by providing for the needs of specific markets and creating a unique festival experience for each visitor. / Thesis (M.Com. (Tourism))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2012.

Diploma thesis concerns the analysis of present degree of the tourism development in microregion Milevsko, i.e. evaluation of primary and secondary potential of tourism. For the analysis of tourism demand in microregion Milevsko served marketing research conducted questionnaire survey. According to questionnaire survey results was defined the profile of the microregion´s visitor. The structured SWOT analysis, evaluation the strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats of microregion, was a background for conceiving of proposals for futher development of tourism in microregion Milevsko.

This thesis concerns the analysis of tourism in the selected area, i.e. analysis of primary and secondary potential of tourism in Microregion Telčsko. Then the tourism demand is analysed, partly by analysis of visitor needs and requirements by selected cultural facilities, partly as well the current visitor in Microregion Telčsko. The thesis evaluates the strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats of tourism in the selected area. Some product proposals for the selected segments were added. As well some communication and cooperation options (proposal) of cultural facilities in the context of the tourism sector were added.

觀光產業為現在世界主要產業之一，稱之為「無煙囪產業」，因其汙染少且外部成本相較許多工業產業來的低，許多國家都致力於發展觀光業，投入許多政策吸引觀光客到訪。我國政府近年來也推動許多政策是針對外籍旅客觀光計畫。如民國92年的「觀光客倍增計畫」預期於2008年達成目標，於是在同年於「觀光發展條例」中增訂的「外籍旅客購物退稅」，外籍旅客購物退稅的實施更是發展觀光產業的重要措施之一，觀光產業在觀光較為發達的已開發國家中，都十分重視旅客購物退稅這項措施，臺灣政府於民國92年實施政策至今，經歷了幾次重大改制，本文致力於研究於民國100年7月實施的「現場小額退稅」措施，是否對來臺外籍旅客的消費行為有顯著影響，並對今年實施的新制退稅措施是否再次影響旅客消費意願作出預期。 本研究以外籍旅客國籍及其消費金額之追蹤資料進行迴歸分析，蒐集位於臺北市區的某特定營業人2009年8月至2015年12月的外籍旅客退稅資料，針對來自七個國家及地區的外籍遊客消費行為建立來臺觀光需求模型。以政府實施的「現場小額退稅」措施當作主要的政策變數，並選取幾個影響旅客需求的重要變數為控制變數，建立以旅客總消費量、平均消費量、特定營業人之營業額為因變數的三個模型，觀察政策變數及其他控制變數對於外籍旅客消費行為的影響。 以全體樣本實證結果發現，本政策變動對於旅客總消費量、商店之營業額均有顯著正向影響，對於旅客平均消費量也是正面的影響；本文也將七個國家及地區分別討論，以美國、日本及中國旅客對於政策效果的影響最為顯著且正向，其他國家雖不顯著但多為正向關係。顯見政策的推動確實有助於提升外籍旅客來臺及消費意願，對發展臺灣觀光旅遊產業是一項助益。 / According to UNWTO, tourism industry has experienced continuous growth and become one of the fastest growing economic sectors in the world. Many countries have committed themselves to developing tourism industry nowadays due to lower externality. Taiwanese government also has some implemented plans on tourism industry of which foreigners are allowed to apply for “VAT Refund”, hoping that the increase in international tourist may give the economy a boost. Our study has conducted an empirical analysis on the policy of On-Site Small Amount Tax Refund, which is mainly concentrated in panel data estimation. The purpose of this thesis is to find out the effect of this policy. First, we use Dummy variable as a main variable to capture the influence of the policy. Second, we introduce both the demand factors and the supply factors to explain tourism spending in Taiwan. The span of the data is from August 2009 to December 2015, using Tax Refund data of foreigners from 7 countries and districts. Our empirical analysis show that the Tax Refund policy has had significantly positive effect on both dependent variables, including total consumption and store revenue, especially these from U.S.A., Japan and China. These three countries show the strongest response to the dependent variables. It also shows that implementation of this Tax Refund policy really contributes to our tourism industry by increasing international tourism receipts of Taiwan.