O objetivo desta Tese é a proposição de uma metodologia alternativa para planejamento de transportes que contempla as ferramentas disponíveis na ciência do sensoriamento remoto. A perspectiva adotada analisa aspectos do planejamento de transportes urbanos, tendo como embasamento os dados e informações advindos das imagens de satélite com alto poder de resolução espacial. A metodologia usa a abordagem baseada em objetos para classificar imagens de satélite de sensoriamento remoto. Através do processo de classificação, identificam-se feições urbanas úteis para o planejamento de transporte, em especial áreas de concentração de polos geradores de viagens do município de João Pessoa no estado da Paraíba, Brasil. A proposta é que com base nesses dados, e outros provenientes de uma pesquisa de campo (pesquisa domiciliar origem/destino), é possível caracterizar o uso do solo e a correspondente demanda por transportes. O estudo se justifica por propor uma alternativa mais ágil e menos onerosa, em comparação aos métodos tradicionais de construção e atualização da base de dados para análises de transportes. Ao identificar as regiões da cidade com as maiores quantidades de viagens geradas, os resultados obtidos auxiliam nas ações de planejamento do sistema de transportes, visando alcançar o equilíbrio entre oferta e demanda de transporte com o uso do solo urbano. / The objective of this Thesis is to propose an alternative method of transportation planning that considers the tools available in the science of remote sensing. The perspective adopted examines aspects of urban transportation planning, having as basis the data and information coming from satellite images with high spatial resolution. The methodology uses the object-based approach to classify remote sensing satellite imagery. Through the classification process, urban features useful for transportation planning are identified, mainly areas of concentration of trip generation in the city of João Pessoa, state of Paraíba, Brazil. The proposal is that, based on these data, and others from a field research (origin/destination home-interview survey), it is possible to characterize the land use and the corresponding demand for transport. The study is justified because it proposes a more agile and less costly alternative, compared to traditional methods of building and updating the database for transport analysis. By identifying areas of the city with the largest amounts of trips generated, the results support planning actions on the transportation system, in order to achieve a balance between transport supply and demand with urban land use.

Um dos enfoques mais utilizados na modelagem de geração de viagens de passageiros urbanos é a desagregação em nível de domicílios. Esta tese oferece razões lógicas e fortes evidências estatísticas para substituir modelos baseados em domicílios, introduzindo modelos desagregados em nível de indivíduos incorporando a influência das características e da estrutura do domicílio. Estes modelos provêm um considerável avanço sobre as práticas tradicionais. Um estudo de caso foi conduzido na região metropolitana de São Paulo - SP. Utilizou-se informação em nível individual, através de algumas variáveis disponíveis na pesquisa origem/destino de 1987 da Cia. do Metropolitano de São Paulo. Foi possível verificar várias vantagens em relação aos modelos tradicionais, bem como responder várias críticas aos modelos atuais. Analisou-se também os erros obtidos com o modelo individual com e sem a influência das características e estrutura domiciliares. / One approach that is widely used to conduct the urban passenger trip generation modelling is the disaggregate household based model. This thesis offers logical reasons and strong statistical evidences to replace household based models, indroducing individual disaggregate models, incorporating the influence of household characteristics and structure. These models represent a significant improvement over tradicional practice. A case study was conducted using data from metropolitan region of Sao Paulo City, Sao Paulo State. Information at individual levei was used, tluough some variables available in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Company, 1987 origin/destination research. It was possible to verify several advantages in relation to traditional models as well as to answer several criticisms to the current models. It was also analysed errors obtained in the individual models with and without the influence of household characteristics and structure.

Um dos enfoques mais utilizados na modelagem de geração de viagens de passageiros urbanos é a desagregação em nível de domicílios. Esta tese oferece razões lógicas e fortes evidências estatísticas para substituir modelos baseados em domicílios, introduzindo modelos desagregados em nível de indivíduos incorporando a influência das características e da estrutura do domicílio. Estes modelos provêm um considerável avanço sobre as práticas tradicionais. Um estudo de caso foi conduzido na região metropolitana de São Paulo - SP. Utilizou-se informação em nível individual, através de algumas variáveis disponíveis na pesquisa origem/destino de 1987 da Cia. do Metropolitano de São Paulo. Foi possível verificar várias vantagens em relação aos modelos tradicionais, bem como responder várias críticas aos modelos atuais. Analisou-se também os erros obtidos com o modelo individual com e sem a influência das características e estrutura domiciliares. / One approach that is widely used to conduct the urban passenger trip generation modelling is the disaggregate household based model. This thesis offers logical reasons and strong statistical evidences to replace household based models, indroducing individual disaggregate models, incorporating the influence of household characteristics and structure. These models represent a significant improvement over tradicional practice. A case study was conducted using data from metropolitan region of Sao Paulo City, Sao Paulo State. Information at individual levei was used, tluough some variables available in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Company, 1987 origin/destination research. It was possible to verify several advantages in relation to traditional models as well as to answer several criticisms to the current models. It was also analysed errors obtained in the individual models with and without the influence of household characteristics and structure.

Existing travel patterns in Windhoek are influenced by the past land use policy of restricted urban development in the former townships ofKatutura and Khomasdal. Thus residents in these townships are faced with longer distances to reach quality urban servtces. This thesis examined the impact on travel demand of changes in land use policies aimed at stimulating growth in the two areas using the HLFM computer model. The results showed that, policy induced land use changes may stimulate population and employment growth in the neglected areas, but with no effects on the present travel patterns. The model needs to be refined to fit the peculiarity of the study area. Nevertheless, information provided in the thesis could be used in assessing areas where development trends will go if any ofthe land use policy tested in the study is adopted. / Geography / M.A. (Geography)

O objetivo desta Tese é a proposição de uma metodologia alternativa para planejamento de transportes que contempla as ferramentas disponíveis na ciência do sensoriamento remoto. A perspectiva adotada analisa aspectos do planejamento de transportes urbanos, tendo como embasamento os dados e informações advindos das imagens de satélite com alto poder de resolução espacial. A metodologia usa a abordagem baseada em objetos para classificar imagens de satélite de sensoriamento remoto. Através do processo de classificação, identificam-se feições urbanas úteis para o planejamento de transporte, em especial áreas de concentração de polos geradores de viagens do município de João Pessoa no estado da Paraíba, Brasil. A proposta é que com base nesses dados, e outros provenientes de uma pesquisa de campo (pesquisa domiciliar origem/destino), é possível caracterizar o uso do solo e a correspondente demanda por transportes. O estudo se justifica por propor uma alternativa mais ágil e menos onerosa, em comparação aos métodos tradicionais de construção e atualização da base de dados para análises de transportes. Ao identificar as regiões da cidade com as maiores quantidades de viagens geradas, os resultados obtidos auxiliam nas ações de planejamento do sistema de transportes, visando alcançar o equilíbrio entre oferta e demanda de transporte com o uso do solo urbano. / The objective of this Thesis is to propose an alternative method of transportation planning that considers the tools available in the science of remote sensing. The perspective adopted examines aspects of urban transportation planning, having as basis the data and information coming from satellite images with high spatial resolution. The methodology uses the object-based approach to classify remote sensing satellite imagery. Through the classification process, urban features useful for transportation planning are identified, mainly areas of concentration of trip generation in the city of João Pessoa, state of Paraíba, Brazil. The proposal is that, based on these data, and others from a field research (origin/destination home-interview survey), it is possible to characterize the land use and the corresponding demand for transport. The study is justified because it proposes a more agile and less costly alternative, compared to traditional methods of building and updating the database for transport analysis. By identifying areas of the city with the largest amounts of trips generated, the results support planning actions on the transportation system, in order to achieve a balance between transport supply and demand with urban land use.

Für die Verkehrsnachfragemodellierung stehen dem Planer sehr differenzierte Modellansätze zur Verfügung. Ein wesentliches Unterscheidungskriterium stellt dabei der Modellierungsgegenstand dar. Der Fokus der vorliegenden Arbeit ist auf makroskopische Verkehrsplanungsmodelle gerichtet. Es wird der Frage nachgegangen, in welcher Form die Ergebnisse großräumiger und lokaler Haushaltsbefragungen effizient bzw. sich gegenseitig ergänzend in Modellierungsaufgaben Einsatz finden können. Im Mittelpunkt der empirischen Datenanalyse steht die Frage, ob ein Unterschied in der Ausprägung zentraler modellierungsrelevanter Kenngrößen differenziert nach Raumtypen statistisch belegbar und planungspraktisch bedeutsam ist. Vor diesem Hintergrund wird auch die Auswirkung der komplexen Stichprobenpläne von MiD 2002 und SrV 2003 auf die Varianz der Parameterschätzung berücksichtigt. Ein in dieser Arbeit entwickelter, mehrstufiger Bewertungsalgorithmus, der dem Signifikanz-Relevanz-Problem hinreichend Rechnung trägt, bildet die Grundlage der Hypothesenprüfung. Er verbindet das Standardvorgehen (Signifikanztest) mit normativ gesetzten Effektgrößen und dem schätzerbasierten Vorgehen (Konfidenzintervalle). Eine besonders hohe Transparenz und Entscheidungskonsistenz erlangt der Ansatz dadurch, dass die Hypothesenprüfung auf Basis zweier voneinander unabhängig erhobener Untersuchungsgruppen (MiD, SrV) erfolgt. Die intensive Arbeit mit den Datengrundlagen MiD und SrV liefert eine Vielzahl von Erkenntnissen zur weiteren Qualifizierung des Erhebungsinstrumentes „Mobilität in Städten – SrV“. In Vorbereitung der im Jahre 2008 anstehenden Neuauflage der Erhebungsreihe wird nach Ansicht des Autors mit der Arbeit ein wesentlicher Impuls zur Weiterentwicklung der Methodik gegeben.

In dieser Arbeit wird ein simultanes Quell-, Ziel-, Verkehrsmittel- und Routenwahlmodell (Modell EVA-U) entwickelt, welches ein stochastisches Nutzergleichgewicht erreicht. Die Routenwahlmodelle der Verkehrsarten sind nicht mehr Teil der Umlegungsalgorithmen, sondern in das Nachfragemodell integriert. Dadurch ist eine konsistente Bewertung aller Alternativen (der Verkehrsarten) möglich. Das Simultanmodell EVA-U stellt eine Weiterentwicklung des Simultanmodells EVA von LOHSE dar. Das EVA-U-Modell ist den universalen Logit-Modellen zuzuordnen. Die Randsummenbedingungen der Verkehrsverteilung werden beachtet. Die Bewertung der Alternativen erfolgt mittels Generalisierter Kosten. Die Abhängigkeit von Routen wird berücksichtigt, ebenso die Tagesganglinie der Verkehrsnachfrage und die Fahrpläne des ÖV-Systems. Das Modell EVA-U erlaubt auch die Berücksichtigung von Routen intermodaler Verkehrsarten (z.B. P+R). Darüber hinaus ist die Integration eines Modells des ruhenden Verkehrs möglich. / In this thesis a simultaneous Trip Generation-, Distribution-, Modal-Split and Route Choice Model (modell EVA-U) is elaborated. The model tends to reach a stochastic user equilibrium. The route choice algorithms are not longer part of an assignment procedure but part of the demand model. A consistent assessment of properties of all transport systems is possible. The simultaneous model EVA-U is an advancement of the EVA-Model by Lohse. The model EVA-U is to be assigned to the generalised logit-models. All matrix constrains are taken into account. The assessment is effected by generalised costs. The dependence of routes is taken into account. Moreover, the integration of day time and the schedules of private transport lines is possible. Furthermore, it is possible to integrate a model of parked cars and circuits of inter-modal traffic forms (park and ride) in the Model EVA-U.

Für die Verkehrsnachfragemodellierung stehen dem Planer sehr differenzierte Modellansätze zur Verfügung. Ein wesentliches Unterscheidungskriterium stellt dabei der Modellierungsgegenstand dar. Der Fokus der vorliegenden Arbeit ist auf makroskopische Verkehrsplanungsmodelle gerichtet. Es wird der Frage nachgegangen, in welcher Form die Ergebnisse großräumiger und lokaler Haushaltsbefragungen effizient bzw. sich gegenseitig ergänzend in Modellierungsaufgaben Einsatz finden können. Im Mittelpunkt der empirischen Datenanalyse steht die Frage, ob ein Unterschied in der Ausprägung zentraler modellierungsrelevanter Kenngrößen differenziert nach Raumtypen statistisch belegbar und planungspraktisch bedeutsam ist. Vor diesem Hintergrund wird auch die Auswirkung der komplexen Stichprobenpläne von MiD 2002 und SrV 2003 auf die Varianz der Parameterschätzung berücksichtigt. Ein in dieser Arbeit entwickelter, mehrstufiger Bewertungsalgorithmus, der dem Signifikanz-Relevanz-Problem hinreichend Rechnung trägt, bildet die Grundlage der Hypothesenprüfung. Er verbindet das Standardvorgehen (Signifikanztest) mit normativ gesetzten Effektgrößen und dem schätzerbasierten Vorgehen (Konfidenzintervalle). Eine besonders hohe Transparenz und Entscheidungskonsistenz erlangt der Ansatz dadurch, dass die Hypothesenprüfung auf Basis zweier voneinander unabhängig erhobener Untersuchungsgruppen (MiD, SrV) erfolgt. Die intensive Arbeit mit den Datengrundlagen MiD und SrV liefert eine Vielzahl von Erkenntnissen zur weiteren Qualifizierung des Erhebungsinstrumentes „Mobilität in Städten – SrV“. In Vorbereitung der im Jahre 2008 anstehenden Neuauflage der Erhebungsreihe wird nach Ansicht des Autors mit der Arbeit ein wesentlicher Impuls zur Weiterentwicklung der Methodik gegeben.

In dieser Arbeit wird ein simultanes Quell-, Ziel-, Verkehrsmittel- und Routenwahlmodell (Modell EVA-U) entwickelt, welches ein stochastisches Nutzergleichgewicht erreicht. Die Routenwahlmodelle der Verkehrsarten sind nicht mehr Teil der Umlegungsalgorithmen, sondern in das Nachfragemodell integriert. Dadurch ist eine konsistente Bewertung aller Alternativen (der Verkehrsarten) möglich. Das Simultanmodell EVA-U stellt eine Weiterentwicklung des Simultanmodells EVA von LOHSE dar. Das EVA-U-Modell ist den universalen Logit-Modellen zuzuordnen. Die Randsummenbedingungen der Verkehrsverteilung werden beachtet. Die Bewertung der Alternativen erfolgt mittels Generalisierter Kosten. Die Abhängigkeit von Routen wird berücksichtigt, ebenso die Tagesganglinie der Verkehrsnachfrage und die Fahrpläne des ÖV-Systems. Das Modell EVA-U erlaubt auch die Berücksichtigung von Routen intermodaler Verkehrsarten (z.B. P+R). Darüber hinaus ist die Integration eines Modells des ruhenden Verkehrs möglich. / In this thesis a simultaneous Trip Generation-, Distribution-, Modal-Split and Route Choice Model (modell EVA-U) is elaborated. The model tends to reach a stochastic user equilibrium. The route choice algorithms are not longer part of an assignment procedure but part of the demand model. A consistent assessment of properties of all transport systems is possible. The simultaneous model EVA-U is an advancement of the EVA-Model by Lohse. The model EVA-U is to be assigned to the generalised logit-models. All matrix constrains are taken into account. The assessment is effected by generalised costs. The dependence of routes is taken into account. Moreover, the integration of day time and the schedules of private transport lines is possible. Furthermore, it is possible to integrate a model of parked cars and circuits of inter-modal traffic forms (park and ride) in the Model EVA-U.