Este trabalho apresenta metodologias para a construção e a sintonia de estimadores de estados não-lineares visando aplicações práticas. O funcionamento de um estimador de estados não-linear está calcado em quatro etapas básicas: (a) sintonia; (b) predição; (c) atualização da matriz de covariância de estados; (d) filtragem e suavização dos estados. As principais contribuições deste trabalho para cada uma destas etapas podem ser resumidas como segue: (a) Sintonia. A sintonia adequada da matriz de covariância do ruído de processos é fundamental na aplicação dos estimadores de estado com modelos sujeitos a incertezas paramétricas e estruturais. Sendo assim, foi proposto um novo algoritmo para a sintonia desta matriz que considera dois novos métodos para a determinação da matriz de covariância dos parâmetros. Este algoritmo melhorou significativamente a precisão da estimação dos estados na presença dessas incertezas, com potencialidade para ser usado na atualização de modelos em linha em práticas industriais. (b) Predição. Uma das etapas mais importantes para a aplicação do estimador de estados é a formulação dos modelos usados. Desta forma, foi mostrado como a formulação do modelo a ser usada em um estimador de estados pode impactar na observabilidade do sistema e na sintonia das matrizes de covariância. Também são apresentadas as principais recomendações para formular um bom modelo. (c) Atualização da matriz de covariância dos estados. A robustez numérica das matrizes de covariância dos estados usadas em estimadores de estados sem e com restrições é ilustrada através de dois exemplos da engenharia química que apresentam multiplicidade de soluções. Mostrou-se que a melhor forma de atualizar os estados consiste na resolução de um problema de otimização sujeito a restrições onde as estimativas fisicamente inviáveis dos estados são evitadas. Este também preserva a gaussianidade dos ruídos evitando que estes sejam mal distribuídos. (d) Filtragem e suavização dos estados. Entre as formulações estudadas, observou-se também que a melhor relação entre a acuracidade das estimativas e a viabilidade de aplicação prática é obtida com a formulação do filtro de Kalman estendido sujeita a restrições (denominada Constrained Extended Kalman Filter - CEKF), uma vez que esta demanda menor esforço computacional que a estimação de horizonte móvel, apresentando um desempenho comparável exceto no caso de estimativas ruins da condição inicial dos estados. Como uma solução alternativa eficiente para a estimação de horizonte móvel neste último caso, foi proposto um novo estimador baseado na inclusão de uma estratégia de suavização na formulação do CEKF, referenciado como CEKF & Smoother (CEKF&S). / This work presents approaches to building and tuning nonlinear state estimators aiming practical applications. The implementation of a nonlinear state estimator is supported by four basic steps: (a) tuning; (b) forecast; (c) state covariance matrix update; (d) states filtering and smoothing. The main contributions of this work for each one of these stages can be summarized as follows: (a) Tuning. An appropriate choice of the process-noise covariance matrix is crucial in applying state estimators with models subjected to parametric and structural uncertainties. Thus, a new process-noise covariance matrix tuning algorithm is presented in this work which incorporates two new methods for the parameter covariance matrix computation. The algorithm has improved significantly the state estimation accuracy when the presence of such uncertainties, with potential to be applied in on-line model update in industrial practice. (b) Forecast. One of the most important stages in applying state estimators is the used model formulation. In this way, it has been shown that the model formulation to be used in state estimator can impact on the system observability and noisecovariance matrices tuning. In this work it is also presented the main recommendations to formulate an appropriated model. (c) State covariance matrix update. The numerical robustness of the state covariance matrices used in unconstrained and constrained state estimators is illustrated by two chemical engineering examples tending to multiple solutions. It has been shown that the best technique to update the states consists in solving an optimization problem subjected to constraints, since it prevents from physically unfeasible states. It also preserves the noise gaussianity preventing from bad noise distribution. (d) States filtering and smoothing. Among the studied formulations, it was also noticed that the better relationship between performance and practical application is obtained with an extended Kalman filter formulation subjected to constraints (called Constrained Extended Kalman Filter - CEKF) because it requires small computational effort than MHE with comparable performance, except in case of poor guesses of the initial state. As an efficient solution for moving horizon estimation in the last case, it was proposed a new estimator based on the addition of a smoother strategy into the CEKF formulation, referred as CEKF & Smoother (CEKF&S).

Submitted by Irene Nascimento (irene.kessia@ufpe.br) on 2017-04-19T18:23:41Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) Teixeira, Ariely (Diss) EngCart 2016.pdf: 4005497 bytes, checksum: fee8ff6a3391fd10e0bdac42adab8d6e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-04-19T18:23:41Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) Teixeira, Ariely (Diss) EngCart 2016.pdf: 4005497 bytes, checksum: fee8ff6a3391fd10e0bdac42adab8d6e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-08-29 / Capes / Para países de grande extensão territorial, como o Brasil, é indispensável a utilização de novas tecnologias que auxiliem no mapeamento, no monitoramento e na atualização do seu território. Quando se tem uma cartografia desatualizada, aplicações para diversos fins ficam prejudicadas, pois não se tem a fidelidade espacial desejada. A partir da necessidade de trabalhar com um corpo d’água, o reservatório de Itaparica, localizado entre os estados de Pernambuco e Bahia, surgiu a proposta dessa pesquisa que teve como objetivo analisar a atualização cartográfica de corpos d’água usando processamento de imagem de sensoriamento remoto. A informação vetorial do contorno era necessária e para extraí-la foi analisada a carta topográfica, Folha Airi, SC.24-X-A-V, MI 1443 (1:100000) e a carta imagem de RADAR, Belém do São Francisco, SC.24-X-A (1:250000). Ao analisar os produtos cartográficos, observou-se a falta de informações nas cartas e com isso as bases cartográficas não estavam em conformidade com o que era necessário para o projeto. Neste caso, procurou-se automatizar a obtenção desses corpos d’água através de técnicas de processamento digital de imagens, como a fusão de imagens IHS e classificação não supervisionada k-médias, para tornar mais geral a obtenção, segmentação das bordas e posterior vetorização. O contorno do reservatório foi extraído utilizando imagens dos sensores remotos, OLI/Landsat 8 e dos sensores MUX, PAN e IRS, a bordo do CBERS-4. A resolução temporal e espacial dos sensores bem como a sua disponibilidade de aquisição de maneira gratuita, foram os principais motivos que levaram a escolha desses imageadores. Após realizadas diversas extrações do contorno do corpo d’água, através da fusão de imagens e da classificação não supervisionada, todos os resultados obtidos foram consistentes e adequados a realidade do reservatório. A utilização de imagens de sensoriamento remoto para a atualização cartográfica torna esta atividade mais rápida e econômica, devido a grande disponibilidade de sensores acessíveis gratuitamente. Através dos procedimentos realizados foi possível identificar novos geo-objetos que devem ser incorporados às cartas e outros que já não existem mais, e devem ser removidos. / For countries with large territorial extension, as Brazil is essential the use of new technologies to assist in the mapping, monitoring and territorial update. When you have an outdated cartographic basis, applications for various purposes are affected, because does not have the desired spatial fidelity. From the need to work with a body of water, the Itaparica reservoir, located between in Pernambuco and Bahia states, proposed this research was to analyze the cartographic updating of water bodies using remote sensing image processing. The contour information was needed and to extract it was analyzed the topographic map, Airi Leaf, SC.24- XAV, MI in 1443 (1:100000) and the letter image of RADAR, Belém de São Francisco, SC.24- XA (1: 250000). By analyzed the cartographic products, there lack of information was observed on the cards and were not in conformity with what was required for the project. In this case, we to automate these water bodies through digital image processing techniques such as fusion IHS images and unsupervised classification from k-means, to automatic obtained, boundary segmentation and after vector. The outline of the reservoir was extracted using images from remote sensors, OLI/Landsat 8 and MUX, PAN and IRS sensors aboard the CBERS-4. The temporal and spatial resolution of the sensors and the availability of free, were the main reasons that led to the choice of these imagers. After many body contouring extraction, by the fusion of images and unsupervised classification k-means, all results were consistent and appropriate the reality of the reservoir. The application of remote sensing image processing to cartographic updating makes this activity quickly and economical just because the several availability of free accesses sensors. Through the procedures carried out it was possible to identify new geo-objects that should be added to the letters and others that no longer exist, and must be removed.

Dissertação(mestrado) - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia Oceânica, Escola de Engenharia, 2005. / Submitted by Lilian M. Silva (lilianmadeirasilva@hotmail.com) on 2013-04-24T21:08:16Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Remodelação de obras portuárias fundações em estacas mistas no porto Novo do Rio Grande.pdf: 4211844 bytes, checksum: f74687913f7ccb9fd3b84d92bf2b6138 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Bruna Vieira(bruninha_vieira@ibest.com.br) on 2013-06-13T18:45:28Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Remodelação de obras portuárias fundações em estacas mistas no porto Novo do Rio Grande.pdf: 4211844 bytes, checksum: f74687913f7ccb9fd3b84d92bf2b6138 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-06-13T18:45:28Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Remodelação de obras portuárias fundações em estacas mistas no porto Novo do Rio Grande.pdf: 4211844 bytes, checksum: f74687913f7ccb9fd3b84d92bf2b6138 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2005 / Um porto é um sistema dinâmico, que cresce e sofre mudanças. Quando o tipo de carga ou o modo de transportá-la muda, o porto necessita ser modernizado para ser adaptado a essas mudanças. E por estar sujeito a um ambiente extremamente severo e a condições de serviço bastante pesadas, um programa constante de manutenção e reparo precisa ser conduzido pelas autoridades portuárias. Neste contexto, esta dissertação apresenta diversas opções de projeto e métodos de execução para serem utilizados na recuperação, remodelação ou modernização das mais diferentes estruturas de atracação. Além disso, são apresentados dois casos em particular. O primeiro trata-se da recuperação do Cais do Porto Velho do Rio Grande, onde se aponta as providências emergenciais já tomadas e indicam-se soluções que podem ser empregadas de maneira definitiva para a completa recuperação do cais de gravidade, que localiza-se no Centro Histórico da cidade. O outro caso particularmente estudado, é a obra de remodelação do cais do Porto Novo do Rio Grande. Neste segmento deu-se maior ênfase a uma análise das estacas do mar do novo cais, objetivando avaliá-las e obter conclusões sobre sua segurança. Para isto, foram aplicados Métodos Dinâmicos(Fórmulas Dinâmicas) e Método Estático (Método de Aoki e Velloso) para a previsão da capacidade de carga. Foram feitas análises de ensaios Dinâmicos (Equação da Onda) com variação de energia a fim de comparar o comportamento observado com os valores previstos. De um modo geral, foram obtidos valores médios aceitáveis para os coeficientes de segurança adotados. Por fim, procedeu-se a análise estatística dos resultados de capacidade de carga obtidos através da verificação do desempenho pelo emprego de 3 metodologias: pelo conceito de Resistência Característica, pelo conceito de Coeficiente de Segurança Global e pelo Conceito de Probabilidade de Ruína, com o intuito de complementar o estudo sobre a resistência e a integridade do elemento estrutural e a resistência do solo. Ficou comprovado que as estacas suportarão satisfatoriamente a carga de projeto, inclusive absorvendo-a somente pelo fuste, o que ocasiona coeficientes de segurança aceitáveis para o estaqueamento. / A harbor is a dynamic system that grows and passes by changes. When a kind of cargo or a way of transporting them changes, the harbor needs to be updated to be adequated to these variations. And being exposed to an environment extremely severe and to so hard work conditions, a constant program of maintenance and restoration needs to be conducted by port authorities. In this context, this dissertation shows several options of projects and methods of executions to be applied in rehabilitation, remodeling and updating of the most different structures of docking. Besides, two cases are specially presented. The first one is related to the rehabilitation of the Old Port Pier of Rio Grande, where it is pointed the emergencial providences already taken and solutions are indicated to be applied in a definitive way to a complete recuperation of the quay wall, that is located at the Historical Center of the city. The other case specially studied, is the remodeling building of the New Port Pier of Rio Grande. In this segment, it was given greater emphasis to an analysis of the new pier sea piles objecting to evaluate them and obtain conclusions about its security. For this, Dynamic Methods were applied (Dynamic Formulae) end Static Method (Aoki and Velloso Method) to the bearing capacity prevision. Dynamic Essay analyses were made (Wave Equation) with energy variation in order to compare the observed behavior with the foreseen values. In a general way, it was obtained the acceptable mean values for the adopted security coefficient. At last, it was been done the statistical analysis on the bearing capacity results obtained through the examination performance by applying three methodologies: by the Characteristic Resistance Concept, by Global Security Coefficient Concept and by the Failure Concept, intending to complement the study about the resistance and integrity of the structural element and the ground resistance. It has been proved that the piles will support satisfactorily the project charge, as well as absorbing it only by the shaft, occurring acceptable security coefficient for the stacking.

It has been common practice in the economics literature to utilize data on observed outcomes and negate what individuals believe or expect will happen in the future. Using responses to a unique set of questions in the 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY97) I show that the literature could benefit in several ways by incorporating such data. The leading essay documents a positive association between a student's subjective probabilistic belief that they will complete a four-year college degree and whether or not they attend and complete college. The results indicate the following. First, although overconfident, individuals as young as fifteen are willing and able to answer subjective probabilistic questions concerning education in a cohesive fashion. Second, these expectations are heterogeneous across race, gender, previous academic success, and parent education, and are influential in predicting whether or not they attend and ultimately complete a degree once these characteristics are controlled for. While the magnitude of the effect diminishes when including the standard economic controls, expectations remain significant and play a larger role as the student ages. Parent expectations are also positive and statistically associated with their child's future college success when the student is young but the significance diminishes as the student ages and gathers information related to the costs and benefits of a college degree. These findings indicate that students possess some form of private information that is not being completely captured by the standard variables used by econometricians to predict college attendance and completion. The second essay uses the NLSY97 to examine how students form and update their college completion expectations as they age out high school. I begin by estimating which factors are utilized by students when forming their expectations while in high school. I find that while these students are taking into account several of the relevant factors associated with college success, they also appear to be neglecting the impact that income and ability have on their likelihood of completing college or are over-relying on poor signals. I then test whether or not students update their expectations in a Bayesian fashion. A Bayesian model is developed. The three ways in which Bayesian students should respond to the acquisition of new information are discussed. Four sources of new information are identified and used in the testing. The testing reveals that students who report either a 0% or 100% chance of completing college do not appear to be Bayesian, but those who report within the 0% and 100% bounds do update in a Bayesian fashion. The third essay studies the accuracy and alignment of the individual's expectation that they will complete college. I utilize several unique aspects of the NLSY97 to create a measure of alignment based on the predicted probability that the respondent will eventually complete college and their expectation of doing so while either in high school or of college age. I use this measure to answer the following questions. First, are there any observable differences between those who are aligned and misaligned? Next, do respondents become more aligned as they age and progress out of high school? Last, are those who are more aligned at an early age more likely to reach their outcomes? I find that although the majority of students are overconfident in their belief there are considerable differences in alignment based on several observable characteristics and the availability of information. The alignment of student expectations differ based on parent education, ASVAB percentile, school enrollment, and race. Using two sub-samples of different aged respondents I show that as students age and acquire more information their expectation of completing college becomes more aligned with their estimated probability of completion. I confirm this by examining 700 students who are asked their expectations first in 1997 while in high school then again five years later when they either are in college or the workforce. I conclude by showing that those who are more aligned in either direction with what a model of college completion predicts the more likely they are to eventually reach that outcome. The final essay examines if the private information contained in the student's expectation that they will complete college is associated with future early career earnings. First I note that there are considerable differences in the frequency of reporting, yearly income, hours worked, and hourly wage for those who predict college success and are successful versus those who do not, as well as those who accurately predict that they will not complete college. I then include these expectations in a wage regression and the estimates suggest that when individuals report their college completion expectations between the ages of 15 and 17 they are not associated with future earnings. However, when asked between the ages of 17 and 22 the reported expectations are positively associated with future wages. There is considerable heterogeneity based on gender, whether they reported at one of the three primary heaping points, and the quantile of the wage distribution in which they were located.

[pt] A manutenção não é mais vista apenas como uma geradora de custos para as empresas. Cresce a necessidade das empresas em redução de custos, aumento de disponibilidade e confiabilidade dos equipamentos e instalações, e é neste sentido que a manutenção tem se destacado, cada vez mais, como uma área fundamental para o sucesso das empresas que tem forte base industrial. No entanto, a manutenção teve uma grande evolução tecnológica, principalmente dentro dos conceitos da manutenção preditiva, onde se busca o desenvolvimento de novas técnicas para avaliação de integridade dos equipamentos, a sua condição de operação. A emissão acústica é uma destas técnicas. No presente trabalho utilizou-se o ensaio de tração para gerar estímulo estrutural em corpos de provas de aço ASTM A 516 / A 516 M-Grau 60 e gerar de sinais de emissão acústica. Durante os níveis de carregamentos em patamares previamente estabelecidos no procedimento experimental, os corpos de provas foram monitorados através do ensaio de emissão acústica, para a avaliação de sua integridade estrutural. Os resultados foram então digitalizados, armazenados e processados para posterior análise. Concluiu-se que é possível utilizar o ensaio de emissão acústica para avaliação de integridade estrutural dos equipamentos em serviço, sendo o mesmo capaz de perceber, detectar e localizar fontes ativas que possam comprometer a integridade estrutural do equipamento. Desta forma é possível programar uma intervenção da equipe de manutenção no equipamento, sem atingir um nível de danos que possam provocar sua parada e, conseqüentemente, do processo produtivo. / [en] Maintenance has not else been seen just as an expenses generator by worldwide companies. According to the importance it has taken on, new investments in technologies and tools were implemented. In companies, it increased the need of costs reduction, equipment and installation availability and reliability, and at this point, maintenance has stood out, each day more, as a fundamental area for success of those companies who have strong and large industrial bases. However, maintenance had a big technological improvement, mainly in predictive maintenance concepts, subject which always work in order to the development of new technologies and methodologies, and also new techniques for equipment integrity evaluation, on operational conditions. Therefore, in this Dissertation, tests were carried out in several specimen (ASTM A 516 / A 516 M - Grade 60 Steel), using tension test as loading conditions, to stimulate the specimen structurally, and consequently, the generation of acoustics emission signals. The specimen were monitored through acoustics emission tests, in each loading steps previously established, for their structural integrity evaluation. Than, the results were digitalized, stored and processed in the Acoustics Emission Equipment, for further analysis. All the results are presented as a graph, and also were studied, analyzed and compared. We can conclude that it is possible to use the acoustics emission test for structural integrity evaluation in equipment under working conditions, and it is capable to realize, detect and locate active sources, that can be compromising to the equipment structural integrity, and also capable of make possible an maintenance team intervention, without causing premature failures which provoke breakdowns.

Cognitive resources, specifically working memory capacity are used for listening to speech, especially in noise. Cognitive resources are limited, and if listeners allocate a greater share of these resources to recovering the input signal in noise, fewer resources are available for interpreting and encoding its linguistic content. Although the importance of CSC for individual success in communicative situations has been acknowledged, this concept has not hitherto been explored experimentally. In this thesis, a CSC test (CSCT) was developed and administered to young adults with normal hearing and older adults with age-related hearing loss. CSCT required executive processing of speech at different memory loads with and without visual cues in different noise conditions. A free recall task using the same material was administered for comparison purposes and a battery of cognitive tests was administered to understand the relation between CSC and established cognitive concepts. The aims of the thesis were to investigate how CSC is influenced by 1) different executive demands and memory loads; 2) background noise; 3) visual cues; 4) aging and concomitant hearing loss. The results showed that 1) CSC was sensitive to memory load, and updating demands reduced CSC more than inhibition demands; 2) CSC was reduced in background noise compared to quiet; 3) visual cues enhanced CSC especially in noise; 4) CSC was reduced with ageing and concomitant hearing loss especially when visual cues were absent, memory demands were  increased and background noise was speech-like. The main finding of this thesis was that visual cues enhanced CSC for older individuals with hearing loss, specifically in adverse listening conditions. This demonstrates the importance of audiovisual testing in audiological assessment. Further, specific cognitive resources depleted during listening in noise were at least partially compensated by other cognitive functions. This thesis is the first step towards a theoretical understanding of CSC and in future, tests of CSC may play a crucial role in planning rehabilitation of persons with hearing loss. / Kognitiva resurser, speciellt arbetsminneskapacitet, förbrukas när vi lyssnar på tal, framförallt i bakgrundsbrus. De kognitiva resurserna är begränsade och ju större del som används till att rekonstruera en inkommande signal, desto färre finns fortsatt tillgängliga för att koda in och tolka dess språkliga innehåll. Trots att betydelsen av kognitiv reservkapacitet för framgångrik kommunikation är erkänd har kognitiv reservkapacitet hittills inte blivit undersökt experimentellt. I detta avhandlingsarbete utvecklades CSCT som ett test av kognitiv reservkapacitet. CSCT administrerades till unga vuxna med normal hörsel och äldre individer med åldersrelaterad hörselnedsättning. CSCT kräver exekutiv bearbetning av talat språk under olika minnesbelastningar, med och utan tillgång till visuell information och med och utan bakgrundsbrus. En fri återgivningsuppgift, baserad på samma material som i CSCT, administrerades för att kunna göra jämförelser. Slutligen administrerades ett kognitivt testbatteri för att förstå relationen mellan kognitiv reservkapacitet och andra kognitiva funktioner. Avhandlingens syfte var att undersöka hur kognitiv reservkapacitet påverkas av 1) olika krav på de exekutiva förmågorna och olika grad av minnesbelastning; 2) bakgrundsbrus; 3) tillgång till visuell information; 4) åldrande och åldersrelaterad hörselnedsättning. Resultaten visade att kognitiv reservkapacitet 1) var känsligt för minnesbelastning och reducerades mer av uppdaterings- än inhibitionskrav; 2) reducerades av bakgrundsbrus; 3) ökade med tillgång till visuell information, framförallt i bakgrundsbrus; 4) var reducerad hos äldre med åldersrelaterad hörselnedsättning, speciellt när visuell information saknades, minnesbelastningen ökades och bakgrundsbruset bestod av talspråk. Huvudfyndet var att visuell information frigjorde kognitiv reservkapacitet hos äldre individer med nedsatt hörsel, speciellt när lyssningssituationen var ogynnsam. Detta visar på betydelsen av audiovisuell testning vid audiologisk bedömning. Resultaten visade vidare att när specifika kognitiva resurser förbrukades under ogynnsamma lyssningsförhållanden kunde andra kognitiva funktioner kompensera för detta. Denna avhandling utgör det första steget mot en teoretisk förståelse av kognitiv reservkapacitet. På sikt kan utvärdering av kognitiv reservkapacitet spela en avgörande roll för planering av rehabilitering i samband med hörselnedsättning.

The first essay developed a respondent model of Bayesian updating for a double-bound dichotomous choice (DB-DC) contingent valuation methodology. I demonstrated by way of data simulations that current DB-DC identifications of true willingness-to-pay (WTP) may often fail given this respondent Bayesian updating context. Further simulations demonstrated that a simple extension of current DB-DC identifications derived explicitly from the Bayesian updating behavioral model can correct for much of the WTP bias. Additional results provided caution to viewing respondents as acting strategically toward the second bid. Finally, an empirical application confirmed the simulation outcomes. The second essay applied a hedonic property value model to a unique water quality (WQ) dataset for a year-round, urban, and coastal housing market in South Florida, and found evidence that various WQ measures affect waterfront housing prices in this setting. However, the results indicated that this relationship is not consistent across any of the six particular WQ variables used, and is furthermore dependent upon the specific descriptive statistic employed to represent the WQ measure in the empirical analysis. These results continue to underscore the need to better understand both the WQ measure and its statistical form homebuyers use in making their purchase decision. The third essay addressed a limitation to existing hurricane evacuation modeling aspects by developing a dynamic model of hurricane evacuation behavior. A household’s evacuation decision was framed as an optimal stopping problem where every potential evacuation time period prior to the actual hurricane landfall, the household’s optimal choice is to either evacuate, or to wait one more time period for a revised hurricane forecast. A hypothetical two-period model of evacuation and a realistic multi-period model of evacuation that incorporates actual forecast and evacuation cost data for my designated Gulf of Mexico region were developed for the dynamic analysis. Results from the multi-period model were calibrated with existing evacuation timing data from a number of hurricanes. Given the calibrated dynamic framework, a number of policy questions that plausibly affect the timing of household evacuations were analyzed, and a deeper understanding of existing empirical outcomes in regard to the timing of the evacuation decision was achieved.

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Knowledge about the dynamic behaviour is a basic condition for a secure operation of modern machine tools. Hence numerical methods predicting the dynamic properties are gaining in importance. Usually for complex and coupled structures, the results of dynamic property calculation are yet insufficient. Therefore Finite Element model updating is a tool to improve the hypothetical factor of the analysis. Within the present thesis Finite Element modelling is performed using the example of the “Scherenkinematik”, a machine tool based on hybrid-kinematics. Initially the results of an Experimental Modal Analysis are evaluated by identifying Modal parameters and deriving possible structural modifications. In the second part of the thesis, the machines Finite Element model is created using the FEA-Software ANSYS. Afterwards the Finite Element model updating is performed by coupling ANSYS and the CAE-Software FEMtools. Therefore two approaches are formulated and tracked. It turns out, that there is no improvement of the analytical and experimental models correlation, neighter with nor without a steady reduction of the search domain needed for mode coupling. It is reasoned, that the characteristics and the results of an Finite Element updating process are affected by the quality of the model at start time and the approach as well as the technique chosen for model updating and parameter modification. Therefore the CAE-Software FEMtools is suitable to only a limited extent for Finite Element updating of strongly coupled mechanical structures as a result of the sensitivity analysis used for parameter modification.

[pt] O presente trabalho identifica e vislumbra a oportunidade de utilização do gerenciamento de riscos na cadeia de suprimentos, no segmento dedicado à manutenção de equipamentos eletrônicos de proteção ao voo, aplicados ao controle do tráfego aéreo. A pesquisa sugere uma metodologia de gerenciamento de riscos descrita na proposta de uma norma que busca estimular uma gestão próativa, aumentar a assertividade no alcance dos objetivos, proporcionar maior segurança nas tomadas de decisão, ganhar mais confiança por parte dos interessados no negócio, ampliar a resiliência da organização e por fim incorporála ao processo de gestão existente. A busca por processos mais eficientes e velozes para atender a demanda de manutenção se apóia fortemente na compra de serviços e suprimentos. Então, ter um processo estruturado de compras é vital para a integridade do negócio, pois contribuirá para garantir a disponibilidade técnica dos equipamentos e sistemas. Ter a consciência de que os riscos são inerentes a qualquer negócio, identificando-os oportunamente é, com certeza, uma maneira de antecipar a visibilidade de incertezas futuras. Elas revelarão tanto oportunidades como ameaças, podendo suscitar o estabelecimento de estratégias catalisadoras para as oportunidades e de proteção contra as ameaças. Ignorá-los não é uma boa estratégia, pois permanecerão latentes, podendo ocasionar de forma aleatória surpresas futuras. É necessário então gerenciar os riscos adequadamente, da forma mais aderente possível com a cultura organizacional e alinhada à missão da organização, de modo a resguardar o planejamento estratégico, tornando-o um instrumento poderoso de alta penetração nos processos ao longo da cadeia de suprimentos. / [en] This work identifies and sees the opportunity to use risk management in the supply chain segment devoted to the maintenance of electronic equipment for flight protection, applied to air traffic control. The research suggests a methodology for risk management described in the proposal of a standard that seeks to stimulate a pro-active one, increase assertiveness in the achievement of objectives, provide greater certainty in decision making, gain more confidence by stakeholders in the business, expand the resilience of the organization and eventually incorporate it into the existing management process. The search for more efficient and faster processes to meet the demand for maintenance is strongly supported by purchases of services and supplies. So having a structured process of procurement is vital to the integrity of the business because it will contribute to ensure the technical availability of equipment and systems. Being aware that risks are inherent in any business, timely identifying them is certainly a way to anticipate the visibility of future uncertainties. They will reveal both opportunities and threats which may lead to the establishment of catalyst strategies for opportunities and protection against threats. Ignoring them is not a good strategy because they will remain dormant and may cause random future surprises. It is then necessary to manage risk appropriately, in the most adherent possible way with organizational culture and aligned to the organization s mission in order to safeguard the strategic planning, making it a powerful tool for highpenetration processes along the supply chain.