Economic explanations tend to view individuals as acting to satisfy their preferences, so that when given a choice between goods, individuals choose those goods which have greater utility for them – they choose those goods which they believe can best satisfy their preferences in the circumstances at hand. In this thesis, I investigate how utility theory works when it is used to explain behaviour. In theory, utility is a positive concept. It is intended to describe and explain an individual’s behaviour without judging or justifying it. It also seems to be regarded as non-hypothetical, for it explains an individual’s behaviour in terms of preferences which need not be shared by others, but may be wholly particular to her. This implies a distinctive way of approaching people’s behaviour as isolated from and immune to the judgements of a community, for utility cannot be used as a common standard by which we judge an individual’s behaviour as better or worse, appropriate or inappropriate. I argue that this theoretical treatment of utility is substantially different from the practice of using utility to explain behaviour. In the first place, when utility is used to explain behaviour as preference-guided, it treats this behaviour as rational action. An explanation of rational action is, however, necessarily governed by the instrumental principle. This principle is normative – it stipulates the correct relation between a person’s means and her ends, rather than simply describing an existing relation. The principle is also non-hypothetical – our commitment to the principle does not rely on the possession of particular ends, but on having ends in general. The instrumental principle therefore acts as a common standard for reasoning about how to act, so that when we explain an agent’s behaviour as rational action, we expect that her action will conform to standards that we all share in virtue of having ends. Thus, I contend, in order to explain the rational actions of an individual, marginal utility necessarily appeals to the judgements of a community.

Pourquoi la gestion des risques est-elle si peu appliquée aux projets de construction ? Est-ce dû aux acteurs qui ne sont pas capables d’incorporer des nouveaux méthodes ou sont les méthodes qui ne sont pas du tout adaptées aux spécificités de la construction ? L’objectif principal de cette recherche est de proposer une méthode d’analyse de risques qui soit adapté au contexte de la construction, notamment pour les entreprises qui sont responsable pour les travaux du projet de construction. Pour atteindre cet objectif, la recherche a été partagé en deux parties : une première partie contenant les quatre premiers chapitres qui présente le contexte, l'organisation, les acteurs, les phases des projets de la construction à partir d’une recherche bibliographique et de la présentation des deux cas. qui ont connu des accidents graves. La deuxième partie est composée par les quatre derniers chapitres qui approchent les méthodes existantes et proposent une méthode développée à partir de la théorie d’utilité multi-attributs. Cette méthode dynamique et évolutive est proposée de façon que les perspectives des différents niveaux de décision au sein de la même entreprise responsable pour les travaux dans la phase d’exécution du projet de construction soit prise en compte face à la gestion des risques du projet cette manière d’améliorer la performance des projets, en réduisant des accidents, des retards et conséquemment les surcoûts et qui prend en compte la perspective. / Why is risk management so little applied to construction projects? Is it due to actors who are not able to incorporate new methods or methods that are not applicable at all to the specificities of construction? The main objective of this research is to propose a method of risk analysis that is adapted to the context of construction, especially for companies that areresponsible for the work of the construction project. To achieve this objective, the research was divided into two parts: a first part containing the first four chapters which presents thecontext, the organization, the actors, the phases of the construction projects based on a bibliographic search and the presentation of the two cases. who have experienced seriousaccidentsThe second part is composed by the last four chapters which approach the existing methods and propose a method developed from the theory of utility multi attributes. This dynamic and evolutive method is proposed in such a way that the perspectives of the different levels ofdecision within the same company responsible for the works in the execution phase of the construction project are taken into account in the face of the risk management of the project, to improve the performance of projects, by reducing accidents, delays and consequently extracosts, and taking into account the perspective.

No description available.

In the early design stage of automotive joints, fuzziness is omnipresent because designers reason in non quantitative terms and deal with imprecise data. Consequently, they need a design methodology that accounts for vagueness. Fuzzy sets and utility theory are appropriate tools because they link the vagueness in a problem formulation and the precise nature of mathematical models. Fuzzy multiobjective optimizations are performed on an automotive joint to maximize the overall designer's satisfaction. Several methods that account for all the attributes and the fuzziness in the goals are used. Three multiobjective fuzzy approaches, namely, the conservative, the aggressive and the moderate methods are investigated. Utility theory is also considered to optimize the joint. One of the performance attributes of the joint, the stiffness, is evaluated rapidly using approximate tools (neural networks and response surface polynomials) to overcome the high computational cost of PEA, which is traditionally used to calculate the stiffness. This research compares fuzzy set methods and utility theory in design of automotive components. These methods are applied on two examples where the same B-pillar to rocker joint of an actual car is optimized. Fuzzy set based methods and utility theory appear to be suitable for optimizing automotive joints because they allow for trading conflicting objectives. Fuzzy set based methods avoid trading objectives to the point of having a level of satisfaction equal to zero. When using the fuzzy set based methods investigated in this research, the trade-offs among the attributes are not explicitly defined by the user. Utility theory requires the user to quantify precisely the trade-offs among the attributes. When using utility theory, the overall satisfaction of a design can be non zero even if one or more attributes has a level of satisfaction equal to zero. The approximate tools enable us to perform the optimization efficiently by reducing considerably the computational cost. / Master of Science

Safety risk assessment forms an integral part of the design and development of Safety Critical Systems. Conventionally in these systems, standards and policies have been developed to prescribe processes for safety risk assessment. These standards provide guidelines, references and structure to personnel involved in the risk assessment process. However, in some of these standards, the prescribed methods for safety decision making were found to be deficient in some respects. Two such deficiencies have been addressed in this thesis. First, when different safety metrics are required to be combined for a safety related decision, the current practices of using safety risk matrices were found to be inconsistent with the axioms of decision theory. Second, in the safety risk assessment process, when multiple experts are consulted to provide their judgment on the severity and/or likelihood of hazards, the standards were lacking detailed guidelines for aggregating experts' judgements. Such deficiencies could lead to misconceptions pertaining to the safety risk level of critical hazards. These misconceptions potentially give rise to inconsistent safety decisions that might ultimately result in catastrophic outcomes. This thesis addresses both these concerns present in SRM processes. For the problem of combining safety metrics, three potential approaches have been proposed. Normative Decision Analysis tools such as Utility Theory and Multi-attribute Utility Theory were proposed in the first and second approaches. The third approach proposes the use of a Multi-Objective Optimization technique - Pareto Analysis. For problems in Expert Aggregation, behavioral and mathematical solutions have been explored and the implications of using these methods for Safety Risk Assessment have been discussed. Two standard documents that contain the Safety Risk Management Processes of the Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) and the U.S. Navy were used to structure the case studies. This thesis has two main contributions. First, it evaluates the use of decision analysis in safety decision process of Safety Critical Systems. It provides guidelines to decision makers on how to meaningfully use and/or combine different safety metrics in the decision process. Second, it identifies the best practices and methods of aggregating expert assessments pertaining to safety decision making. / Master of Science / Safety risk assessment forms an important part of the design and development of Safety Critical Systems. Safety Critical Systems are those systems whose failure could potentially result in the loss of human life. Commonly in these systems, standards and policies have been developed to prescribe processes for safety risk assessment. These standards provide guidelines, references and structure to personnel involved in the risk assessment process. However, in some of these standards, the prescribed methods for safety decision making were found to be deficient in some respects. Two such deficiencies have been addressed in this thesis. First, when different safety metrics are required to be combined to provide information for a safety related decision, the current practices of the safety risk assessment do not yield consistent recommendations. Second, in the safety risk assessment process, often multiple experts are consulted to provide their judgment on the criticality of a potential safety risk of the system. The standards and policies that are currently being used, do not provide clear instructions on how to synthesize the judgements of multiple experts. This lack of clear guidelines could potentially lead to an incorrect final judgement on the criticality of the risk and ultimately result in choosing an improper method to reduce the safety risk. This thesis addresses both these concerns present in safety risk assessment process of Safety Critical Systems. For the problem of combining safety metrics, three approaches have been proposed. Two of the proposed approaches make use of normative decision analysis practices and therefore the recommendations reached using these methods will be consistent with the safety objective of the decision maker. The third approach makes use of a traditional concept called -Pareto Analysis which provides a visual method to analyze the advantages and drawbacks of a given safety concern for a system. For problems in combining the judgements of multiple experts a variety of methods was studied. The methods include group consensus and mathematical techniques and the implications of using these methods in safety risk assessment was discussed. The FAA and the U.S. Navy's standard documents and policies were used to frame the discussions. This thesis has two main contributions. First, it evaluates the use of Normative Decision Analysis methods in safety decision process of Safety Critical Systems. It provides guidelines to decision makers on how to meaningfully use and/or combine different safety metrics in the decision process. Second, it identifies the best practices and methods of aggregating expert assessments pertaining to safety decision making.

The recent increase in utility research has provided improved methods for estimating the standard deviation of performance in dollars. Subjective estimates of an individual's overall worth to the organization allow the utility of various organizational interventions to be evaluated. However, this research does little to illuminate the dimensions underlying supervisory judgments of utility. The recent increase in utility research has provided improved methods for estimating the standard deviation of performance in dollars. Subjective estimates of an individual's overall worth to the organization allow the utility of various organizational interventions to be evaluated. However, this research does little to illuminate the dimensions underlying supervisory judgments of utility. The policies underlying judgments of overall worth were captured to a substantial degree, with cross-validated R² values ranging from .46 to .69. A unit weighting scheme was applied to the six predictors, resulting in r² values that exceeded the cross-validated R² derived from regression analyses. This substantial predictability of utility judgments provided the capacity to generalize utility information from a sample of jobs to the population of interest. Analyses comparing validity-based and utility-based clustering schemes explored the degree of convergence between the two approaches to classifying jobs. These analyses indicated that there was some overlap, with validity information being useful in establishing broad categories of jobs associated with similar utility-relevant attributes. At the same time, these analyses demonstrated that the two approaches were not equivalent. Implications of this research are discussed, and several possible directions for future research are noted. It is suggested that such policy capturing procedures can enhance our understanding of judgments of overall worth, and expand the knowledge base upon which organizational decisions are made. / Ph. D.

Automobile use is associated with significant problems such as air pollution and obesity. Decisions to use the automobile or its alternatives, including walk, bicycle, and public transit, are believed to be associated with urban form. However, in contrast to the hypothesis that compact urban form significantly reduces automobile travel, previous studies reported only a modest effect on travel behavior. These studies, largely built on microeconomic utility theory, are not sufficient for assessing the effect of compactness, for several reasons: (1) The studies postulate that travel invokes only disutility, but travel may also provide intrinsic utility or benefits insomuch as people travel for its own sake; (2) the studies have traditionally focused on how urban compactness reduces the distance between trip origin and destination and accordingly reduces trip time, but urban compactness also increases congestion and reduces trip speed, and thus increases trip time; and (3) the studies have mostly examined automobile commuting, but people travel for various purposes, using different travel modes, and the impact of urban compactness on the utility of non-automobile non-commuting travel has not been duly examined. On this ground, to better explain the effects that urban compactness has on travel behavior, this dissertation refines the concept of travel utility using two additions to the microeconomic utility theory: activity-based utility theory of derived travel demand and approaches to positive utility of travel. Accordingly, it designs a conceptual model that specifies travel utility as an intermediary between urban compactness and travel behavior and examines the behavior associated with and utility derived from travel mode choices for alternative purposes of travel. Twenty individual models are derived from the conceptual model and tested within the context of Seoul, Korea, using a confirmatory approach of structural equation modeling and data from geographic information systems and a structured sample survey, which is initially designed and validated by semi-structured interviews and subsequent statistical tests. By comparing the individual models, this research concludes that the urban compactness effect on travel behavior, represented by trip frequencies and supplemented by mode shares, is better explained when travel utility is considered and if travel purposes are separately examined. Major empirical findings are that urban compactness affects travel behavior mainly by increasing the benefits of travel in comparison to its modest effect on the cost reduction and people’s behavioral response to urban compactness is to shift modes of commuting travel, decrease travel for shopping, and increase travel for leisure. These purpose-specific findings have implications for transportation planners and public health planners by assisting them in linking plans and policies concerning urban compactness to travel purposes.

Business Management / (M.Sc.(Operation Research))

In 1979 Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky created the prospect theory. It became an accepted and appropriate theory in explaining decision making under risk. The prospect theory has been one of the most cited articles in economics and Kahneman received the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences as a result of the creation and development of the theory. Therefore the prospect theory is considered to be more suitable compared to the previously accepted theory, the expected utility theory. Following the prospect theory, researchers have utilized it to describe individual but also corporate management decision making when faced with risk. In this thesis the authors will focus on the latter. Despite the prospect theory being a well-accepted theory, there have been several critics due to its limitations and Audia and Greve (2006) are one of these critics. Their study suggested that corporations under threat, i.e. small firms with low returns, act risk averse. The findings of Audia and Greve (2006) violate the prospect theory when considering small firms that have below target returns. They tested the theory on an industry that has the characteristics of having relatively high proportions of tangible assets. Audia and Greve (2006) also proposed that a similar conclusion could be drawn if tested on an industry characterized by having a high level of intangible assets. This thesis examines the applicability of the prospect theory in the Swedish automotive industry and staffing and recruitment industry. The characteristics of the two industries are that the automotive industry has a high proportion of tangible assets and the staffing and recruitment industry has a high level of intangibles. The authors test if the prospect theory can be used to describe the decision making of both industries but also test the theory on small and large firms. Following the results of this paper we show that the prospect theory can be applied to the Swedish automotive industry and staffing and recruitment industry, characterized by having high levels of tangible assets and intangible assets respectively. The theory can also be used to explain decision making under risk for small firms within both industries and large firms within the automotive industry. Even though the prospect theory was originally tested on individuals, the conclusion can be drawn that the prospect theory once again prevails as an explanation of the decision making in the management of corporations. It can describe the decision making of firms in the two industries having characteristics of different asset tangibility and for firms of different size.

In what way does different stakeholders assess a decision and its consequences, and how do these assessments differ? When a company stands before a big decision, they need to consider aspects that are economic, ecologic and social. To make a good decision they need to consider the society and its different stakeholder groups. This study examined how different groups values and weights different criteria. The study has been done with the project Sundsvall logistics park as a case, with criteria related to that project. The goal of the study was to find a way to value and weight different criteria and then compare how the company and the stakeholders assesses these criteria. This has been done through interviews with relevant people that has got extra knowledge about the project Sundsvall logistics park, and through a survey that has been sent out to residents of Sundsvall. The informants and respondents got to assess values and weights to the criteria relative to an indirect alternative where the logistics park isn’t built. The data was then compiled using multi attribute utility theory as a tool to present the comparison. The result of the study suggests that the differences between the valuations and weightings of the criteria is partly due to an uncertainty in how the logistics park would affect the criteria, but that the biggest reason probably depends on what perspective the person is viewing the logistics park from. If the person is viewing the logistics park from an industrial perspective, the criteria related to industrial development is getting more important and is going to take up more room in the analysis. If the person is viewing the logistics park from an individual and social perspective, the criteria related to that is more important and takes up more room in the analysis. / På vilket sätt uppskattar olika intressenter ett beslut och dess konsekvenser, och hur skiljer sig dessa uppskattningar åt? När företag idag står inför stora beslut behöver de ta hänsyn till aspekter som är både ekonomiska, ekologiska och sociala. För att beslutet ska bli bra behöver de ta hänsyn till samhället och dess olika intressentgrupper. Denna studie är en undersökning av hur olika grupper värderar och viktar olika kriterier. Studien har utförts mot projektet Sundsvall Logistikpark med kriterier relaterade till projektet. Målet med studien har varit att hitta ett sätt att värdera och vikta olika kriterier för att sedan göra en jämförelse av hur företaget och intressenterna uppskattar dessa kriterier. För att göra detta har intervjuer utförts med personer som är extra insatta i projektet med Sundsvall logistikpark och en enkät skickats ut till boende i Sundsvall. Informanterna och respondenterna har fått uppskatta värden och vikter på kriterierna utifrån ett indirekt alternativ där logistikparken inte byggs. Datan har sedan sammanställts genom att använda multiattributsnyttoteori som verktyg för att presentera jämförelsen. Resultatet av undersökningen tyder på att de skillnader som finns i värderingar och viktningar av kriterierna dels beror på en viss osäkerhet angående hur logistikparken skulle kunna påverka de olika kriterierna och hur ett värde kan uppskattas på dessa, men att den största orsaken troligen beror på vilket perspektiv personen ser logistikparken på. Om personen ser på logistikparken från ett industriellt perspektiv blir kriterier som har med industriell utveckling att göra viktigare och tar större plats i analysen. Om personen ser på logistikparken från ett individuellt och socialt perspektiv blir sådana kriterier viktigare och tar större plats i analysen