The Mara River Basin (MRB) is endowed with pristine biodiversity, socio-cultural heritage and natural resources. The purpose of my study is to develop and apply an integrated water resource allocation framework for the MRB based on the hydrological processes, water demand and economic factors. The basin was partitioned into twelve sub-basins and the rainfall runoff processes was modeled using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) after satisfactory Nash-Sutcliff efficiency of 0.68 for calibration and 0.43 for validation at Mara Mines station. The impact and uncertainty of climate change on the hydrology of the MRB was assessed using SWAT and three scenarios of statistically downscaled outputs from twenty Global Circulation Models. Results predicted the wet season getting more wet and the dry season getting drier, with a general increasing trend of annual rainfall through 2050. Three blocks of water demand (environmental, normal and flood) were estimated from consumptive water use by human, wildlife, livestock, tourism, irrigation and industry. Water demand projections suggest human consumption is expected to surpass irrigation as the highest water demand sector by 2030. Monthly volume of water was estimated in three blocks of current minimum reliability, reserve (>95%), normal (80–95%) and flood (40%) for more than 5 months in a year. The assessment of water price and marginal productivity showed that current water use hardly responds to a change in price or productivity of water. Finally, a water allocation model was developed and applied to investigate the optimum monthly allocation among sectors and sub-basins by maximizing the use value and hydrological reliability of water. Model results demonstrated that the status on reserve and normal volumes can be improved to ‘low’ or ‘moderate’ by updating the existing reliability to meet prevailing demand. Flow volumes and rates for four scenarios of reliability were presented. Results showed that the water allocation framework can be used as comprehensive tool in the management of MRB, and possibly be extended similar watersheds.

Cette thèse comporte trois essais en économie des ressources naturelles. Le Chapitre 2 analyse les effets du stockage d’une ressource naturelle sur le bien-être et sur le stock de celle-ci, dans le contexte de la rizipisciculture. La rizipisciculture consiste à élever des poissons dans une rizière en même temps que la culture du riz. Je développe un modèle d’équilibre général, qui contient trois composantes principales : une ressource renouvelable à accès libre, deux secteurs de production et le stockage du bien produit à partir de la ressource. Les consommateurs stockent la ressource lorsqu’ils spéculent que le prix de cette ressource sera plus élevé dans le futur. Le stockage a un effet ambigu sur le bien-être, négatif sur le stock de ressource au moment où le stockage a lieu et positive sur le stock de ressource dans le futur. Le Chapitre 3 étudie les effects de la migration de travailleurs qualifiés dans un modèle de commerce international lorsqu’il y a présence de pollution. Je développe un modèle de commerce à deux secteurs dans lequel j’introduis les questions de pollution et de migration dans l’objectif de montrer que le commerce interrégional peut affecter le niveau de pollution dans un pays composé de régions qui ont des structures industrielles différentes. La mobilité des travailleurs amplifie les effets du commerce sur le capital environnemental. Le capital environnemental de la région qui a la technologie la moins (plus) polluante est positivement (négativement) affecté par le commerce. De plus, je montre que le commerce interrégional est toujours bénéfique pour la région avec la technologie la moins polluante, ce qui n’est pas toujours le cas pour la région qui a la technologie la plus polluante. Finalement, le Chapitre 4 est coécrit avec Yves Richelle. Dans ce chapitre, nous étudions l’allocation efficace de l’eau d’un lac entre différents utilisateurs. Nous considérons dans le modèle deux types d’irréversibilités : l’irréversibilité d’un investissement qui crée un dommage à l’écosystème et l’irréversibilité dans l’allocation des droits d’usage de l’eau qui provient de la loi sur l’eau (irréversibilité légale). Nous déterminons d’abord la valeur de l’eau pour chacun des utilisateurs. Par la suite, nous caractérisons l’allocation optimale de l’eau entre les utilisateurs. Nous montrons que l’irréversibilité légale entraîne qu’il est parfois optimal de réduire la quantité d’eau allouée à la firme, même s’il n’y a pas de rivalité d’usage. De plus, nous montrons qu’il n’est pas toujours optimal de prévenir le dommage créé par un investissement. Dans l’ensemble, nous prouvons que les irréversibilités entraînent que l’égalité de la valeur entre les utilisateurs ne tient plus à l’allocation optimale. Nous montrons que lorsqu’il n’y a pas de rivalité d’usage, l’eau non utilisée ne doit pas être considérée comme une ressource sans limite qui doit être utilisée de n’importe quelle façon. / This thesis consists of three essays in resource economics. Chapter 2 analyzes the effects of resource storage on welfare and on the resource stock, in the context of rice-fish culture. I develop a simple general equilibrium model, that has three central components: one open access renewable resource with logistic natural growth, two production sectors and storage of the good produced with the resource. Consumers store the resource when they speculate that the price of the resource will be higher in the future. Storage has an ambiguous effect on welfare, has a negative impact on resource stock at the period the storage takes place and has a positive impact for all following periods. Chapter 3 examines the effects of migration of skilled workers in a model of interregional trade in the presence of pollution. I develop a two-sector model of trade that incorporates both pollution and migration issues to show that interregional trade can affect the pollution level of a country composed of regions with different industrial structures. The mobility of workers amplifies the effects of interregional trade on the environmental capital. The region with the less (more) polluting technology is affected positively (negatively) by trade. Migration doesn’t affect the trade pattern. The region with the less polluting manufacturing industry always gains from trade. If the preferences over manufactures is relatively low, the region with the more pollutant technology can experience a loss from trade in the long run. Finally, Chapter 4 is co-authored with Yves Richelle. In this chapter, we consider the problem of efficiently allocating water of a lake among different potential users. We consider two types of irreversibility: the irreversibility of an investment that creates a fixed damage to the ecosystem and the irreversibility of the right to use the resource that comes from the legislation (legislative irreversibility). First of all, we determine the value of water for users. Then, we characterize the optimal allocation of water among users. With legislative irreversibility, we show that it is sometimes optimal to reduce the amount of water allocated to the firm, even though there is no rivalry in use. Moreover, we show that it is not always optimal to prevent the damage created by the irreversible vi investment. We define the context, in which it is optimal to intervene to prevent the damage. Furthermore, with irreversibility, we prove that the marginal value of water at the efficient allocation for users is not equalized. Overall, we show that in the case of no rivalry in use, unused water should not be seen as a limitless resource to be used in any way whatever.

From the Proceedings of the 1971 Meetings of the Arizona Section - American Water Resources Assn. and the Hydrology Section - Arizona Academy of Science - April 22-23, 1971, Tempe, Arizona / The Colorado River is the only major stream in the U.S. whose water supply is fully utilized. This distinction has brought the Colorado more than its share of controversy, within states, between states and between nations. The Colorado River compact, whose purpose was to equitably apportion the waters between the upper and lower basins and to provide protection for the upper basin through water reservation, was ratified by all states except Arizona, in 1923. Arizona finally ratified it in 1944. The history of controversies and negotiation concerning the compact are outlined through the supreme court decision on march 9, 1964, which entitled California to 4.4 maf, Nevada to 0.3 maf and Arizona to 2.8 maf, of the first 7.5 maf available in the lower Colorado. Unfortunately, the court did not attempt to establish priorities in the event of shortage. The problem is complicated by an international treaty of 1944, guaranteeing Mexico 1.5 maf annually, except in years of unusual circumstances. Because Senator Connally of Texas was then chairman of the senate foreign relations committee and because the treaty allocated twice as much Colorado River water to Mexico as it was then using, it was argued that this treaty represented a tradeoff to Mexico, giving it less water from the Rio Grande in exchange for more water from the overburdened Colorado. Problems of inter-basin water transfer studies, uniform Colorado basin water quality standards and central Arizona project planning are discussed.

From the Proceedings of the 1971 Meetings of the Arizona Section - American Water Resources Assn. and the Hydrology Section - Arizona Academy of Science - April 22-23, 1971, Tempe, Arizona / Southwestern rivers are few in numbers and low in discharge. The physiographic and climatic reasons for this are discussed. To the east of the 100th meridian, rainfall is reliable and agriculture is stable; while to the west, there is a chronic deficit of water, droughts are frequent and lifestyles must be accordingly adjusted. Dam building results in greatly increased silting behind the dam in both the river and its tributaries and accelerated channel erosion below the dam. Total flow must also decrease due to withdrawals and increased evaporation from reservoirs. The correction of apparent errors in measuring the virgin flow of the Colorado River now indicates that this flow is about 15 maf/yr. Current legal allocations total 17.5 maf/yr of river water, including the central Arizona project (cap), which will withdraw 1.2 maf/yr. While the river is being dammed and overallocated beyond all reason, the water table is being mined at the alarming rate of 20 ft/yr. In central Arizona, it has dropped to about 250 ft below the surface, and even if all withdrawals ceased immediately, it would take many centuries of of desert rains before it would return to its former level of 50 ft. The cap water will cancel only about 1/2 of this overdraft annually. A glance at the phoenix area today shows that rain follows neither the farmers plow nor the subdividers bulldozer.

From the Proceedings of the 1974 Meetings of the Arizona Section - American Water Resources Assn. and the Hydrology Section - Arizona Academy of Science - April 19-20, 1974, Flagstaff, Arizona / Four sources of water supply for desert cities are rainfall, runoff, groundwater, and imported water, and the potential use for each varies. The government can institute various policy changes to eliminate or reduce the imbalance between water supply and demand. Restrictions should be placed on water-use luxuries such as swimming pools, subdivision lakes, fountains, etc. Water pricing should be progressive; each unit of increased use above a reasonable minimum should be charged for at an increasing rate. Runoff from individual properties, homes, storage, and supermarkets should be minimized through the use of onsite recharge wells, and various collection methods should be initiated. A campaign to acquaint the general public with a new water policy must be inaugurated.

From the Proceedings of the 1978 Meetings of the Arizona Section - American Water Resources Assn. and the Hydrology Section - Arizona Academy of Science - April 14-15, 1978, Flagstaff, Arizona / Assessment of the basic hydrologic and geologic parameters controlling the occurrence and availability of local groundwater is one of the first steps in formulating any comprehensive water management plan. Each of several parameters must be carefully evaluated both individually and in relation to the other factors which together describe the occurrence and movement of the subsurface water resources. These evaluations are fundamental to the legal and political decision- making framework within which the Water Utility must operate for both short and long-range water management planning. Recent changes in several hydrologic parameters have been observed throughout much of the groundwater reservoir tapped by numerous users in the Tucson Basin. Accelerated water level decline rates, decreasing production capacities of existing wells, increased hydrologic interference and increased demand for water are all having an impact on our water resource. These conditions must be evaluated before basin -wide groundwater management alternatives can be implemented.

From the Proceedings of the 1978 Meetings of the Arizona Section - American Water Resources Assn. and the Hydrology Section - Arizona Academy of Science - April 14-15, 1978, Flagstaff, Arizona / Intensive strip and leach mining activity within a confined region usually causes environmental impacts both on the land and on water quality. Adverse water quality effects could be realized long after any mining activity has ceased due to the continuous leaching by precipitation of contaminants from spoils piles and leach dumps. The Miami, Arizona region is unique in its surface and subsurface hydrology. Two unconnected aquifers underlay the region with both serving as domestic (private and municipal) and industrial (mining) supply sources. The shallow floodplain alluvial aquifer is hydraulically connected to surface drainage from mine tailings and leach dumps. Several wells drawing from this aquifer have been abandoned as a municipal supply source due to severe water quality degradation. Water quality in these wells varies directly with precipitation indicating a correlation between surface drainage over and through tailings and leach piles. Expansion of spoils dumps into natural recharge pathways of the deeper Gila Conglomerate aquifer has raised concern that this aquifer may also be subjected to a long term influx of mine pollutants. Questions have also been raised concerning the potential effects of a proposed in situ leaching operation on the water quality of the conglomerate aquifer.

From the Proceedings of the 1978 Meetings of the Arizona Section - American Water Resources Assn. and the Hydrology Section - Arizona Academy of Science - April 14-15, 1978, Flagstaff, Arizona / Combined urban, agricultural, industrial and mining groundwater withdrawal from the Santa Cruz River Basin exceeds natural aquifer replenishment by 74,000 acre -feet annually. Four ameliorative water management alternatives are presented singly and in combination with one another. These alternatives are importing Colorado River water, exchanging treated effluent with mining and agricultural interests for groundwater, interbasin water transfer, and retiring farmlands for groundwater rights. These management philosophies are applicable to most economically emergent urban areas in arid and semiarid regions.

<p><p><p>L’eau est vitale dans toutes les économies. C’est à cause de son rôle prépondérant pour la survie que les tensions politiques autour des basins et des fleuves internationaux tendent à être particulièrement très épineuses. Actuellement, la mauvaise répartition de cette ressource pose un sérieux problème du fait qu’elle est gérée en fonction de stratégies politiques et non en fonction des réalités hydrologiques régionales. Nous expliquons à l’aide de la « Enhanced Power Matrix Model » (La Matrice de FREY et NAFF améliorée) que les tensions autour des bassins et des fleuves au Moyen – Orient n’aboutiront pas à des conflits armés mais à une situation de non guerre et de non paix, très peu propice à la coopération. Pour sortir de cette situation de blocage, nous proposons aux décideurs politiques et aux négociateurs, sur base de l’article 6 de la Convention de New York de 1997 sur « les cours d’eau internationaux à d’autres usages que la navigation », un modèle de répartition de la ressource hydrique entre les différents riverains d’un cours d’eau international. Face à cette situation, beaucoup de pays de la région tentent de mettre de façon unilatérale des modèles de gestion macroéconomique :réduction de la demande ou l’augmentation de l’offre de l’eau. Ces modèles se heurtent à des obstacles de nature économique, politique, sociologique et culturelle. Dans un objectif de conception de nouveaux modèles de gestion de l’eau, nous proposons un modèle coopératif, les projets de transfert inter – bassin, pour faire face à la mauvaise répartition de cette ressource au Moyen – Orient. <p>Nous appuyons sur la méthodologie multicritère d’aide à la décision pour opérationnaliser l’article 6 de la Convention de New York et pouvoir comparer les différents projets de transfert inter - bassin. Cette méthodologie fait appel à un logiciel d’aide à la décision « Décision Lab 2000 ». Le commentaire des résultats fournis par ce logiciel nous a permit de tirer l’enseignement suivant :seuls les projets qui présentent une faisabilité politique élevée arrivent en tête de classement. Ce qui nous fait dire que la question de l’eau au Moyen – Orient est, avant tout, une question politique. <p> / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

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