No presente estudo, os mecanismos vinculados à formação de um intenso evento de Zona de Convergência do Atlântico Sul (ZCAS) foram investigados. Para isso, uma análise observacional foi realizada para identificação desse sistema e seguinte implementação de um estudo numérico em uma escala sub-sazonal. Uma vez que a atividade da ZCAS é predominantemente concentrada em uma das regiões de maior importância socioeconômica da América do Sul, os estudos de previsibilidade dessa feição são extremamente importantes. O evento escolhido pela análise observacional foi caracterizado pelo suporte de uma estrutura em larga escala para seu desenvolvimento e persistência, através da presença de um vórtice ciclônico na região costeira do sudeste do Brasil. A representação numérica desse caso de ZCAS foi particularmente desafiadora, uma vez que trata-se de um sistema complexo, cujo desenvolvimento e evolução conectam-se a características atmosféricas de grande escala. Para aprimorar a representação numérica desse evento, várias aplicações utilizando-se nudging espectral foram testadas, para garantir que as características de grande escala que suportam o sistema fossem bem representadas pelo modelo numérico. Os resultados mostram que a alternativa menos restritiva para a aplicação do nudging espectral mostrou-se ideal para manter suas características importantes, e ainda permitindo que os componentes físicos do modelo contribuam com a representação da atmosfera em escalas menores. A partir disso, novos experimentos numéricos foram conduzidos para uma avaliação de como diferentes parametrizações convectivas e microfísica representam a banda de precipitação associada ao sistema. Os resultados mostram que, quando usados juntos, tanto a opção de microfísica WRF Single Moment 6-Class (WSM6) quanto a opção cumulus de Kain-Fritsch (KF) contribuíram para a formação da banda convectiva associada à ZCAS. Os resultados também mostram que é possível usar um esquema de microfísica mais simples (WSM3) para a representação do sistema, uma vez que os desempenhos entre os diferentes testes em microfísica foram semelhantes. / In the present study, the mechanisms and formation of an intense South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) event were investigated. For this, an observational analysis was performed to identify this system for the implementation of a numerical study on a sub-seasonal scale. Since the SACZ activity is predominantly concentrated over one of the most socioeconomically important regions of South America, predictability studies for this system are extremely valuable. The SACZ event chosen by the observational analysis was supported by a large-scale structure that featured a cyclonic vortex in the coastal region of southeastern Brazil. The numerical representation of a SACZ case in this context was particularly challenging since the SACZ is a very complex system and its development and evolution are closely linked to large-scale atmospheric features. To improve the numerical representation of such event, several spectral nudging applications were tested to ensure the large scale features that support the systems are well represented by the numerical model. Results show that the less restrictive alternative for the spectral nudging application was ideal for maintaining important features in large scales while still allowing the physical components of the model to contribute the representation of the atmosphere on smaller scales. From this, numerical experiments were conducted for an evaluation of how different convective parametrizations and microphysics represent the precipitation band associated to the system. The results show that, when used together, both WRF Single Moment 6-Class (WSM6) microphysics option and Kain-Fritsch (KF) cumulus option contributed to the formation of convective band associated with the SACZ. Results also show that it is possible to use a simpler microphysics scheme (WSM3) for the representation of the system, since the performances between different tests in microphysics were similar.

No presente estudo, os mecanismos vinculados à formação de um intenso evento de Zona de Convergência do Atlântico Sul (ZCAS) foram investigados. Para isso, uma análise observacional foi realizada para identificação desse sistema e seguinte implementação de um estudo numérico em uma escala sub-sazonal. Uma vez que a atividade da ZCAS é predominantemente concentrada em uma das regiões de maior importância socioeconômica da América do Sul, os estudos de previsibilidade dessa feição são extremamente importantes. O evento escolhido pela análise observacional foi caracterizado pelo suporte de uma estrutura em larga escala para seu desenvolvimento e persistência, através da presença de um vórtice ciclônico na região costeira do sudeste do Brasil. A representação numérica desse caso de ZCAS foi particularmente desafiadora, uma vez que trata-se de um sistema complexo, cujo desenvolvimento e evolução conectam-se a características atmosféricas de grande escala. Para aprimorar a representação numérica desse evento, várias aplicações utilizando-se nudging espectral foram testadas, para garantir que as características de grande escala que suportam o sistema fossem bem representadas pelo modelo numérico. Os resultados mostram que a alternativa menos restritiva para a aplicação do nudging espectral mostrou-se ideal para manter suas características importantes, e ainda permitindo que os componentes físicos do modelo contribuam com a representação da atmosfera em escalas menores. A partir disso, novos experimentos numéricos foram conduzidos para uma avaliação de como diferentes parametrizações convectivas e microfísica representam a banda de precipitação associada ao sistema. Os resultados mostram que, quando usados juntos, tanto a opção de microfísica WRF Single Moment 6-Class (WSM6) quanto a opção cumulus de Kain-Fritsch (KF) contribuíram para a formação da banda convectiva associada à ZCAS. Os resultados também mostram que é possível usar um esquema de microfísica mais simples (WSM3) para a representação do sistema, uma vez que os desempenhos entre os diferentes testes em microfísica foram semelhantes. / In the present study, the mechanisms and formation of an intense South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) event were investigated. For this, an observational analysis was performed to identify this system for the implementation of a numerical study on a sub-seasonal scale. Since the SACZ activity is predominantly concentrated over one of the most socioeconomically important regions of South America, predictability studies for this system are extremely valuable. The SACZ event chosen by the observational analysis was supported by a large-scale structure that featured a cyclonic vortex in the coastal region of southeastern Brazil. The numerical representation of a SACZ case in this context was particularly challenging since the SACZ is a very complex system and its development and evolution are closely linked to large-scale atmospheric features. To improve the numerical representation of such event, several spectral nudging applications were tested to ensure the large scale features that support the systems are well represented by the numerical model. Results show that the less restrictive alternative for the spectral nudging application was ideal for maintaining important features in large scales while still allowing the physical components of the model to contribute the representation of the atmosphere on smaller scales. From this, numerical experiments were conducted for an evaluation of how different convective parametrizations and microphysics represent the precipitation band associated to the system. The results show that, when used together, both WRF Single Moment 6-Class (WSM6) microphysics option and Kain-Fritsch (KF) cumulus option contributed to the formation of convective band associated with the SACZ. Results also show that it is possible to use a simpler microphysics scheme (WSM3) for the representation of the system, since the performances between different tests in microphysics were similar.

Using the regional climate model WRF, and the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis Project data asboundary and initial conditions, regional precipitation was estimated by means of thedynamical downscaling technique for two selected periods, January 2000 and September2007. These months show very particular climatic characteristics of the precipitationregimen in Central America, like dry (wet) conditions in the Pacific (Caribbean) coast of theCentral American isthmus, in January, and wet (dry) conditions, respectively in each coast,during September. Four-nested-domains, each grids of resolution of 90 km (d01), 30 km(d02), 10 km (d03), and 3.3 km (d04), were configured over this region. The runs werereinitialized each 5 days with 6 hours of spin-up time for adjustment of the model. A total of8 experiments (4 per month) were tested in order to study: a) two important CumulusParameterization Schemes (CPS), Kain-Fritsch (KF) and Grell-Devenyi (GD); and b) thephysical interaction between nested domains (one- and two-way nesting), during eachsimulated month.January 2000 results showed that the modeled precipitation is in agreement withobservations, and also captured the mean climate features of rainfall concerning magnitude,and spatial distribution, like the particular precipitation contrast between the Pacific and theCaribbean coast.Outputs from September 2007 revealed significant differences when a visual comparison ismade to the spatial distribution of each coarse domain (d01, d02, and d03) with theirrespective domain in each experiment. However, the inner grids (d04) in all theexperiments, showed a similar spatial distribution and magnitude estimation, mainly inthose runs using one-way nesting configuration. Furthermore, the results for this mothdiffer substantially with observations, and the latter could be related with associateddeficiencies in the boundary condition that do not reproduce well the transition periodsfrom warm to cold El Niño episodes.Moreover, in all the experiments, the KF scheme calculated more precipitation than the GDscheme and it is associated to the ability of the GD scheme to reproduce spotty but intenserainfall, and apparently, this scheme is reluctant to activate, frequently yielding little or norain. However, when rainfall does develop, it is very intense.Also, the time series do not replicate specific precipitation events, thus, the 5-daysintegration period used in this study, is not enough to reproduce short-period precipitationevents.Finally, physical interaction issues between the nested domains are reflected indiscontinuities in the precipitation field, which have been associated to mass fieldadjustment in the CPS. / Nederbörden i Central Amerika har uppskattats med dynamisk nedskalning för två utvaldaperioder, januari 2000 och september 2007. Global återanalysdata från NCEP-NCARsåteranalysprojekt har använts som randdata och initialdata till den regionalaklimatmodellen WRF. De studerade månaderna uppvisar stora variationer inederbördsmönster, t ex lite (mycket) nederbörd under januari och mycket (lite) nederbördunder september för kustområdena längs Stilla havet (Karibiska havet). Fyra nästladedomäner över Central Amerika har använts med en upplösning på 90 km (d01), 30 km (d02),10 km (d03) och 3,3 km (d04). Simuleringarna initialiserades var 5:e dag och de första 6timmarna efter varje initialisering används för modellens anpassning till initialtillståndet.Totalt 8 experiment genomfördes (4 för varje månad) för att studera: (a) två olika sätt attparameterisera konvektion i Cumulusmoln (CPS), Kain-Fritsch (KF) och Grell-Devenyi (GD)och (b) den fysikaliska interaktionen mellan de nästlade domänerna (en- respektive tvåvägsnästlade scheman).För januari 2000 var det god överensstämmelse mellan modellerad och observeradnederbörd. Modellen beskriver väl såväl mängden nederbörd som den rumsligafördelningen, t ex den stora kontrasten mellan kustområdena längs Stilla havet och Karibiskahavet.För september 2007 uppvisar den modellerade nederbörden stora skillnader i de olikaexperimenten för de yttre domänerna (d01, d02, d03). För den inre domänen (d04) ärresultaten från de olika experimenten betydligt mer lika, särskilt för experimenten medenvägs nästlade scheman. Vidare skiljer sig den modellerade nederbörden väsentligt frånobserverad nederbörd under september 2007. Detta kan förklaras med felaktiga randdatapå grund av problemet i återanalys data att reproducera perioder med övergång från varmtill kall El Niño. I alla experiment gav KF mer nederbörd än GD, det kan förklaras med att GDbättre reproducerar kortvarig, intensiv nederbörd. Det finns en viss tröghet innannederbörden i GD aktiveras, vilket innebär större frekvens av lite eller ingen nederbörd. Närnederbörden väl utvecklas blir den dock intensiv. WRF-modellen klarar inte av att återgespecifika nederbördshändelser för de genomförda experimenten, vilket betyder att 5-dagarär för lång simuleringstid för att kunna reproducera specifika händelser. Slutligen,interaktion mellan de nästlade domänerna skapar diskontinuiteter i nederbördsmöns.

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / The present study aims to evaluate the quality of nocturnal temperature forecast made by a mesoscale numerical model and to understand the reasons behind the difficulties found. To do that, the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is used, with the same configuration employed for operational weather forecast. The model has been ran for the 31 nights of July 2012, and temperature outputs have been compared to hourly observations measured by 26 weather stations scattered over the entire state of Rio Grande do Sul. Four different schemes for turbulence have been considered. Three of them, Yonsei University (YSU), Mellor Yamada Janjic (MYJ) and Bougeault-Lacarrere (BOU) are formulations available from WRF code, while the fourth, Bougeault-Lacarrere Modified (BOU-Mod) is a change made to BOU, aiming at making it less turbulent. A general analysis shows that the different formulations present similar root mean squared errors (EQM), with YSU showing slightly smaller errors than the others. An important discrepancy found refers to the fact that there is an appreciable difference between station real altitude and its altitude in the model, which is given by the height of the closest grid point. When such an altitude difference is corrected by a potential temperature, the errors are enhanced. In this case, the most turbulent formulations, YSU and BOU, tend to overestimate nocturnal temperatures, while the least turbulent ones, MYJ and BOU-Mod, tend to underestimate it. All schemes presented a tendency to underestimate the observed temporal variability. It means that they tend to overestimate the coldest observations and to underestimate the warmest ones. In the most stable nights, all parameterizations showed large EQM and overestimate the temperature. In the least stable nights there were some cases with reduced EQM, but all formulations tended to underestimate temperature, showing that it is necessary to increase the turbulent mixing in this cases. When the different stations are compared, it becomes evident that the height difference between station and model altitudes has a large influence in the nighttime temperature weather forecast. It happens mainly because stations lower than the nearest grid point the modeled winds tend to be larger than observed, causing more intense turbulent mixing and leading to warmer temperatures. The opposite happens in stations higher than the grid point. Such a situation occurs mainly in the more stable conditions, when the lower regions tend to have its surface decoupling from the higher atmospheric levels. The implications of these results and suggestions for improving nocturnal temperature forecasts are presented. / O objetivo do presente trabalho é avaliar a qualidade da previsão de temperaturas noturnas em um modelo numérico de mesoescala e compreender a razão das principais dificuldades encontradas. Para tanto, é utilizado o modelo Weather Research and Forecast (WRF), configurado da mesma maneira que é feito em previsões do tempo operacionais. O modelo foi rodado para as 31 noites do mês de Julho de 2012, e as saídas de temperatura foram comparadas com observações horárias feitas em 26 estações espalhadas por todo o estado do Rio Grande do Sul. Foram consideradas quatro representações diferentes para a turbulência no modelo, sendo que três delas, as de Yonsei University (YSU), Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) e Bougeault-Lacarrere (BOU), são formulações disponibilizadas no próprio modelo e uma quarta, Bougeault-Lacarrere-Modificada (BOU-Mod), é uma alteração imposta à parametrização BOU com o propósito de torná-la menos turbulenta. Uma análise geral mostra que as formulações apresentam erros quadráticos médios (EQM) bastante próximos entre si, sendo que YSU tem erros levemente menores que as demais. Uma importante discrepância observada é que há diferença razoável entre a altura real da estação e a sua altitude no modelo, representada pelo valor do ponto de grade mais próximo. Quando essa diferença de altitude é corrigida pela temperatura potencial, os erros aumentam. Nesse caso, as duas parametrizações mais turbulentas, que são YSU e BOU, têm tendência geral de superestimar as temperaturas noturnas, enquanto as menos turbulentas, MYJ e BOU-Mod, tendem a subestimar essa grandeza. Todos os esquemas mostraram tendência de reduzir a variabilidade temporal observada, o que significa que elas tendem a superestimar as observações mais frias e subestimar as mais quentes. Nas noites mais estáveis, todas parametrizações apresentaram grande EQM e superestimam a temperatura. Nas noites menos estáveis houve casos com EQM reduzido, mas todas as parametrizações mostraram tendência de subestimar a temperatura observada, mostrando que é necessário que todas as formulações se tornem mais turbulentas nestes casos. Quando as diferentes estações são comparadas, a diferença de altura entre a estação e o ponto de grade mais próximo tem grande influência na previsão de temperatura noturna. Isso ocorre porque nas estações mais baixas que o ponto de grade, o vento do modelo tende a ser maior que o observado, causando maior mistura turbulenta, e levando a temperaturas maiores. O oposto ocorre nas estações mais altas que o ponto de grade. Esta situação ocorre principalmente nas noites mais estáveis, quando estações localizadas em regiões mais baixas tendem a experimentar o fenômeno do desacoplamento entre a superfície e os níveis mais altos da atmosfera. As implicações destes resultados são discutidas e propostas para melhorar as previsões noturnas de temperatura são apresentadas.

With the growing energy demand and the opportunity for exploitation of renewable energy (wind energy), this paper performs the mapping of wind potential in Alagoas. This study is based on the use of anemometer measurements between August/2007 to July/2008, as also computational tools: mesoscale atmospheric model (WRF); numerical model of microscale (WAsP®); data from Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The stations with anemometers were geographically distributed in three mesoregions of the State: Backwoods Sertão (Água Branca), Rural Agreste (Girau do Ponciano and Palmeira dos Índios) and Coast Litoral (Feliz Deserto, Maragogi and Roteiro). WRF simulations have validated by time series (daily average, monthly average and diurnal cycles), statistical analysis and Weibull distributions. It was also evaluated using WAsP as a tool for calculating the spatial wind speed in microscale. The input data in WAsP, in addition to the WRF model simulations and the preparation of various maps, were all treated and developed in the ArcGIS® software. The results showed greater efficiency in the WRF simulation of wind speed for sites to the interior of Alagoas, with bias less than 1 m.s-1. These estimates were more accurate during the summer season (bias less than 0.5 m.s-1) and more disparate in winter, with average error of up to 3 m.s-1. For the Coast, these values were overestimated by more than 3 m.s-1, except in Maragogi. The wind direction from WRF was calculated with accuracy in all sites, being dominant in the east coast, east to northeast in Rural, and southeast in Água Branca. The annual wind map for WRF for Alagoas showed areas with good potential energy, the magnitude of the wind varies between 7-9 m.s-1 at 50 meters high. Application of the WAsP in the microscale showed good resemblance to the maps obtained in the Wind Atlas of the State of Alagoas - AEEA. The models achieved satisfactory results, but still need to be improved in some respects. / Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico / Com a crescente demanda energética e a oportunidade de exploração de energia renovável (eólica), este trabalho realiza o mapeamento do potencial eólico em Alagoas. Este trabalho é baseado no uso de medições anemométricas entre agosto/2007 a julho/2008, além de ferramentas computacionais: modelo atmosférico de mesoescala (WRF); modelo numérico de microescala (WAsP®); dados de sistemas de informações geográficas (SIG). As estações anemométricas foram distribuídas geograficamente nas três mesorregiões do Estado: Sertão (Água Branca), Agreste (Girau do Ponciano e Palmeira dos Índios) e Litoral (Feliz Deserto, Maragogi e Roteiro). As simulações do WRF foram validadas através de séries temporais (médias diárias, mensais, ciclos diurnos), análises estatísticas e Distribuições de Weibull. Avaliaram-se ainda o uso do WAsP como ferramenta para cálculo espacial da velocidade do vento em microescala. Os dados de entrada no WAsP, além das simulações do modelo WRF e da elaboração de diversos mapas, foram todos tratados e desenvolvidos no software ArcGIS®. Os resultados mostraram que houve maior eficiência do WRF nas simulações da velocidade do vento para sítios do interior alagoano, com bias inferior a 1 m.s-1. Estas estimativas foram mais precisas durante a estação do verão (bias menor que 0,5 m.s-1) e mais discrepantes no inverno, com erro médio de até 3 m.s-1. Para o litoral, estes valores foram superestimados em mais de 3 m.s-1, exceto em Maragogi. A direção do vento do WRF foi calculada com acerto em todos os sítios, sendo dominante de leste no litoral, leste a nordeste no agreste, e sudeste em Água Branca. O mapa eólico anual do WRF para Alagoas apresentou áreas com bom potencial energético, cuja magnitude do vento varia entre 7 a 9 m.s-1 em 50 metros de altura. A aplicação do WAsP na microescala mostrou boa semelhança aos mapas obtidos no Atlas Eólico do Estado de Alagoas AEEA. Os modelos atingiram resultados satisfatórios, porém ainda precisam ser aperfeiçoados em alguns aspectos.

L'intégration de la production des énergies renouvelables intermittentes dans le mix énergétique est aujourd'hui limitée à un seuil de 30 % de la puissance totale produite. Cette mesure vise à assurer la sécurité de l'alimentation électrique des réseaux insulaires en France. La levée de ce verrou technique ne pourra se faire qu'en apportant des solutions au caractère intermittent des sources d'énergies éolienne et photovoltaïque. Les difficultés énergétiques auxquelles sont confrontés aujourd'hui les milieux insulaires préfigurent celles que rencontreront la planète à plus ou moins long terme. Ces territoires sont des laboratoires uniques pour éprouver les nouvelles technologies de stockage, de gestion et de prévision de l'énergie. La contribution de ce travail de thèse se focalise sur la prévision du rayonnement solaire global à différents horizons de temps car la puissance photovoltaïque produite découle directement de l'intensité du rayonnement solaire global. Dans un premier temps, l'étude bibliographique a permis de classer les modèles de prévision numériques et les modèles de prévision statistiques en fonction de la résolution spatiale et temporelle. Par ailleurs, elle montre que les meilleurs performances sont obtenues avec les modèles hybrides. Dans un deuxième temps, un modèle de prévisions à court terme (J+1) est proposé avec le modèle Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) et un réseau de neurone bayésien. L'hybridation de ces deux méthodes améliore les performances de prévisions à J+1. Dans un troisième temps, un modèle de prévision à très court terme (t+h) est proposé avec le modèle hybride de Kalman. Cette méthode produit d'une part une prévision énergétique et d'autre part une prévision multi-horizon. La comparaison de la performance de ces modèles avec la méthode de référence dite de persistance montre une amélioration de la qualité de la prévision. Enfin, la combinaison du filtre de Kalman avec le modèle numérique WRF permet une mise en œuvre opérationnelle de la prévision. / The integration of intermittent renewable energy in the energy mix is currently limited to a threshold of 30% of the total power being produced. This restriction aims at ensuring the safety of the power input. The elimination of this technical obstacle will be possible with solutions to energy intermittence of wind and solar energy. The energy issues which islands are facing today prefigure global problems in a more or less long term. These territories constitute unique laboratories for testing new technologies of storage, management and forecasting of energy. The contribution of this thesis focuses on the forecasting of global horizontal irradiance at different time horizons. Indeed, the generated PV power stems directly from the intensity of the global horizontal irradiance. First, the review of solar irradiance forecasting methods allows to classify numerical weather models and statistical forecasting methods depending on spatial and temporal resolution. Moreover, it shows that best performance is obtained with hybrid models. Second, a short-term forecast model (day ahead forecast) is developed with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) and a Bayesian neural network. The hybridization of these methods improves the day ahead forecast performance. Third, a model for forecasting the very short term is developped with the Kalman hybrid model. This method offers on the one hand an energy forecasting and on the other hand a multi-horizon forecast. Comparing the performance of the aforesaid with the reference method, namely the persistence method, shows an improvement of the quality of the forecasts. Combining the Kalman filter with the WRF numerical model allows an operational implementation of the forecast.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-08-20T14:25:49Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 dissertacao_clovis_correa.pdf: 19288418 bytes, checksum: 98a82fd638a44d647e5b27b37e7a8288 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-02-26 / This work presents the study of atmospheric conditions associated the occurrence of Hurricane Catarina and two study cases. The Catarina occurred in March 2004 and reached the coast of southern Brazil.The other case studies correspond to cut-off lows that occurred in May 2005 and September 2008. It was used the WRF model, version 3.0, to obtain the meteorological fields during the period of occurrence of these events and images of the geostationary satellite GOES-12 and QuikSCAT. For Hurricane Catarina, data from surface meteorological stations were also analyzed. Initially, the study cases consisted of cut-off lows preceded by extratropical cyclones in the South Atlantic Ocean. When they shut the western flow, they occurred at the interface of different patterns of vertical variation of horizontal wind in the layer between 850-200hPa and showed closed cyclonic circulation at middle levels. At high levels, it was observed bifurcation of the jet with a trough quasi-stationnary near the southern coast of Brazil. The observed atmospheric blocking together with the thermodynamic and kinematic configurations of each case contributed to the occurrence of tropical transition and subsequent formation of Hurricane Catarina, in March 2004, while the other cut-off lows dissipated. / Neste trabalho é feito o estudo sobre as condições atmosféricas associadas à ocorrência do furacão Catarina e a dois casos de estudo. O Catarina ocorreu em março de 2004 e atingiu o litoral da região sul do Brasil. Os outros casos de estudo correspondem a baixas desprendidas que ocorreram em maio de 2005 e setembro de 2008. Foi utilizado o modelo WRF, versão 3.0, para a obtenção dos campos meteorológicos durante o período de ocorrência destes eventos e imagens do satélite geoestacionário GOES-12 e do QuikSCAT. Para o furacão Catarina, foram também analisados dados de estações meteorológicas de superfície. Os casos de estudo, inicialmente, corresponderam a baixas desprendidas precedidas por ciclones extratropicais no Oceano Atlântico Sul. Ao se isolarem do escoamento de oeste, ocorreram na interface de padrões distintos de variação vertical do vento horizontal na camada entre 850-200hPa e apresentaram circulação ciclônica fechada em níveis médios. Em altos níveis, foi observada bifurcação do jato com um cavado quase estacionário nas proximidades da costa sul do Brasil. Os bloqueios atmosféricos observados, juntamente com as configurações cinemáticas e termodinâmicas de cada caso, contribuíram para a ocorrência da transição tropical e posterior formação do furacão Catarina, em março de 2004, enquanto que as outras baixas desprendidas se dissiparam.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-08-20T14:25:52Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 dissertacao_gustavo_cuchiara.pdf: 35782355 bytes, checksum: 0606b9c213fa2c0a65dc1b1bf8a4bc6a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-02-23 / One of the main problems related to air pollution in urban areas is caused by photochemical oxidants.... / Um dos maiores problemas originados pela poluição do ar em áreas urbanas é o provocado pelos oxidantes fotoquímicos....

<p>The contribution of surface evapotranspiration (ET) to moist convection, cloudiness and precipitation along the eastern flanks of the Andes (EADS) was investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW-WRF3.4.1) model with nested simulations of selected weather conditions down to 1.2 km grid spacing. To isolate the role of surface ET, numerical experiments were conducted using a quasi-idealized approach whereby at every time step the surface sensible heat effects are exactly the same as in the reference simulations, whereas the surface latent heat fluxes are prevented from entering the atmosphere. </p><p>Energy balance analysis indicates that local surface ET along the EADS influences moist convection primarily through its impact on conditional instability, because it acts as an important source of moist entropy in this region. The energy available for convection decreases by up to ~60% when the ET contribution is withdrawn. In contrast, when convective motion is not thermally driven, or under conditionally stable conditions, latent heating from the land surface becomes secondary. At the scale of the Andes proper, removal of surface ET weakens upslope flows by increasing static stability of the lower troposphere, as the vertical gradient of water vapor mixing ratio tends to be less negative. Consequently, moisture convergence is reduced over the EADS. In the absence of local surface ET, this process operates in concert with damped convective energy, suppressing cloudiness, and decreasing daily precipitation by up to ~50% in the simulations presented here.</p><p>When the surface ET is eliminated over the Amazon lowlands (AMZL), the results show that, without surface ET, daily precipitation within the AMZL drops by up to ~75%, but nearly doubles over the surrounded mountainous regions. This dramatic influence is attributed to a dipole structure of convergence-divergence anomalies over the AMZL, primarily due to the considerable cooling of the troposphere associated with suppressed convection. Further examination of moist static energy evolution indicates that the net decrease in CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) over the AMZL is due to the removal of surface ET that is only partially compensated by related regional circulation changes. Because of the concave shape of the Andean mountain range, the enhanced low-level divergence promotes air mass accumulation to the east of the central EADS. This perturbation becomes sufficiently strong around nightfall and produces significant eastward low-level pressure gradient force, rendering wind currents more away from the Andes. Moisture convergence and convection over the EADS vary accordingly, strengthened in the day but attenuated at night. Nocturnal convective motion, however, is more widespread. Analytical solutions of simplified diagnostic equations of convective fraction suggest that reduction of lower troposphere evaporation is the driving mechanism. Additional exploratory experiments mimicking various levels of thinning and densification of AMZL forests via changes in surface ET magnitude demonstrate that the connection between the AMZL ET and EADS precipitation is robust.</p> / Dissertation

The tropical cyclone is a majestic, yet violent atmospheric weather system occurring over tropical waters. Their majesty evolves from the significant range of spatial scales they operate over: from the mesoscale, to the larger synoptic-scale. Their associated violent winds and seas, however, are often the cause of damage and destruction for settlements in their path. Between 10/11/07 and 16/11/07, tropical cyclone Sidr formed and intensified into a category 5 hurricane over the southeast tropical waters of the northern Indian Ocean. Sidr tracked west, then north, during the course of its life, and eventually made landfall on 15/11/07, as a category 4 cyclone near the settlement of Barguna, Bangladesh. The storm affected approximately 2.7 million people in Bangladesh, and of that number 4234 were killed. In this study, the dynamics of tropical cyclone Sidr are simulated using version 2.2.1 of Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting — a non-hydrostatic, two-way interactive, triply-nested-grid mesoscale model. Three experiments were developed examining model sensitivity to ocean-atmosphere interaction; initialisation time; and choice of convective parameterisation scheme. All experiments were verified against analysed synoptic data. The ocean-atmosphere experiment involved one simulation of a cold sea surface temperature, fixed at 10 °C; and simulated using a 15 km grid resolution. The initialisation experiment involved three simulations of different model start time: 108-, 72-, and 48-hours before landfall respectively. These were simulated using a 15 km grid resolution. The convective experiment consisted of four simulations, with three of these using a different implicit convective scheme. The three schemes used were, the Kain-Fritsch, Betts-Miller-Janjic, and Grell-Devenyi ensemble. The fourth case simulated convection explicitly. A nested domain of 5km grid spacing was used in the convective experiment, for high resolution modelling. In all experiments, the Eta-Ferrier microphysics scheme, and the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic planetary boundary layer scheme were used. As verified against available observations, the model showed considerable sensitivity in each of the experiments. The model was found to be well suited for combining ocean-atmosphere interactions: a cool sea surface caused cyclone Sidr to dissipate within 24 hours. The initialisation simulations indicated moderate model sensitivity to initialisation time: variations were found for both cyclone track and intensity. Of the three simulations, an initialisation time 108 hours prior to landfall, was found to most accurately represent cyclone Sidr’s track and intensity. Finally, the convective simulations showed that considerable differences were found in cyclone track, intensity, and structure, when using different convective schemes. The Kain-Fritsch scheme produced the most accurate cyclone track and structure, but the rainfall rate was spurious on the sub-grid-scale. The Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme resolved realistic rainfall on both domains, but cyclone intensity was poor. Of particular significance, was that explicit convection produced a similar result to the Grell-Devenyi ensemble for both model domain resolutions. Overall, the results suggest that the modelled cyclone is highly sensitive to changes in initial conditions. In particular, in the context of other studies, it appears that the combination of convective scheme, microphysics scheme, and boundary layer scheme, are most significant for accurate track and intensity prediction.