A superfície terrestre está em movimentação contínua em decorrência das ações das forças tectônicas, dos processos climáticos ou de agentes atmosféricos, que podem causar deformações de origem espacial ou temporal, podendo afetar a infraestrutura geodésica de um país e por consequência a Rede de Referência Cadastral Municipal (RRCM) vinculada a ela, causando alterações nas coordenadas dos limites da parcela (unidade básica do Cadastro). A escolha do Modelo Geodésico de Monitoramento de Deformação (MGMD) adequado depende da localização e das dimensões da área de estudo. A quantificação dos parâmetros de deformação e o impacto destes nas coordenadas dos limites das parcelas caracterizam o Cadastro Dinâmico. Os modelos de deformações exigem a acurácia que não é contemplada em normas de levantamentos dos limites físicos vigentes no Brasil. Neste contexto, esta tese tem por objetivo fundamental conceber um modelo de cadastro dinâmico, validado por meio de simulações e com aplicações práticas, que possibilite o restabelecimento de coordenadas dos limites das parcelas que sofrem deformações. Para tanto, foram estudados os padrões de acurácia aplicados em diversos países e idealizados sete procedimentos, utilizando o aplicativo GAMIT no processamento dos dados GNSS, que conduziram ao estabelecimento da acurácia absoluta, com base em soluções globais, para uma RRCM já implantada. Foi selecionado um modelo espacial de deformação que fosse adequado à área estudada, o modelostrain, que tem como principal propriedade considerar a deformação homogênea na área afetada. Quatro experimentos foram concebidos e testados para estimar os parâmetros de deformação, sendo apontado novamente, o uso de soluções globais como o mais viável. O modelo temporal VEMOS2009 foi assumido no cálculo das deformações seculares e a combinação dos modelos espacial e temporal encerraram as ações propostas para a modelagem da deformação na RRCM. Um modelo para o restabelecimento das coordenadas submetidas ao MGMD foi planejado e executado, finalizando os procedimentos que convergiram para concepção do Cadastro Dinâmico. Trata-se de um tratamento inovador de um tema até então inexplorado. / The surface is in continuous movement due to the action of tectonic forces, climatic processes or atmospheric agents that can cause deformation of spatial or temporal origin, affecting the geodetic infrastructure of a country and therefore the Municipal Cadastral Reference Network (RRCM) linked to it, causing changes in the coordinates of the boundaries of the parcel (the basic unit of the Cadastre). The choice of suitable model Geodetic Deformation Monitoring (MGMD) depends on the location and size of the study area. The quantification of deformation parameters and their impact on the coordinates of boundaries of parcels featur es Dynamic Cadastre. The deformation models require the accuracy that is not found in current standards for physical boundary surveying in Brazil. In this context, this thesis aims to develop a model of dynamic registration fundamentally, validated through simulations and practical applications, enabling the restoration of coordinates of boundaries of parcels that suffer deformations. Therefore, we studied the patterns of accuracy applied in various countries and idealized seven procedures using the application GAMIT in GNSS data processing, which led to the establishment of absolute accuracy, based on global solutions for a RRCM already deployed. We selected a model of spatial deformation that was appropriated for the study area, the model strain, whose main property considered homogeneous deformation in the affected area. Four experiments were designed and tested to estimate the parameters of deformation, being appointed again, the use of global solutions as the most viable. The temporal model VEMOS2009 was assumed in the calculation of secular deformation and the combination of spatial and temporal models closed the proposed actions for the modeling of deformation in RRCM. A model for the restoration of coordinated submitted to MGMD was planned and executed, ending the procedures that converged to design the Dynamic Cadastre. This is an innovative treatment of a subject until then unexplored.

A fixação das duplas diferenças de ambigüidades no processamento dos dados da fase da portadora do Sistema de Posicionamento Global (GPS), é um dos pontos cruciais no posicionamento relativo estático. Esta fixação também é utilizada como um indicador de qualidade e fornece maior segurança quanto ao resultado do posicionamento. No entanto, ela é uma informação puramente estatística baseada na precisão da medida e dissociada da exatidão das coordenadas geradas na solução. A informação sobre a exatidão das coordenadas de pontos medidos através de um vetor simples, é sempre inacessível, independente de a solução ser fixa ou “float”. Além disso, existe um risco maior em assumir um resultado de solução “float”, mesmo que ele tenha uma boa, porém, desconhecida exatidão. Por estes motivos a solução “float” não é aceita por muitos contratantes de serviços GPS, feitos com a fase da portadora, que exigem uma nova coleta de dados, com o conseqüente dispêndio de tempo e dinheiro. Essa tese foi desenvolvida no sentido de encontrar um procedimento que melhore esta situação. Para tanto, se investigou o comportamento da exatidão em medidas obtidas com a fase da portadora L1 do GPS, monitorando os fatores variáveis presentes neste tipo de medição, o que tornou possível a classificação da exatidão de resultados. Inicialmente, a partir de um conjunto de dados GPS, coletados ao longo dos anos de 2003, 2004 e 2005 em duas bases de monitoramento contínuo da USP, se fez uma análise sistemática do comportamento das variáveis contidas nos dados. A seguir se estruturou um banco de dados, que foi usado como referência na indução de uma árvore de decisão adotada como paradigma. Por último, a partir desta árvore se pôde inferir a exatidão de soluções de posicionamento obtidas com o uso da portadora L1. A validação do procedimento foi feita através da classificação da exatidão de resultados de várias linhas base, coletadas em diferentes condições e locais do estado de São Paulo e do Brasil / The most crucial step on the relative static positioning, when using the Global Positioning System (GPS) carrier phase data, is the fixing ambiguities integer values. The integer ambiguity solution is also used as a quality indicator, ensuring quality to the positioning results. In despite of its capability, the ambiguity fix solution is purely statistical information, based on the precision of measurements and completely apart from the coordinate's solution accuracy. In a single baseline processing, the positioning coordinates accuracy is always inaccessible, no matter if the final solution is float or fixed. In fact, there is some inner risk when using the float solution, although they have a good, nevertheless, unknown accuracy. Probably that is why several GPS job contractors reject the float solutions and require a new data observation, with the consequent time and money loss. This research was developed to improve that situation, investigation the inner accuracy in several GPS L1 carrier phase measurements. Checking the variable factors existing on this kind of measurement it was possible to classify the results accuracy behavior. The investigation was developed in tree steps: started with the systematic analysis of a group of L1 observation data, collected during the years: 2003, 2004 and 2005, followed by the construction of a structured data bank which generated a decision tree, performing the paradigm used to classify the accuracy of any measurement made with GPS L1 carrier phase; and ended with the research validation, through the accuracy classification that was made on several baselines, collected on different conditions and places around the state of São Paulo and Brazil

The purpose of this study was to replicate the effects of the study by Neely et al. (2013) and also determine if the tablet served as a reinforcer for three participants with escape maintained behaviors. A multiple baseline with an alternating treatment design was utilized in the first phase in which academic work was completed on either traditional materials or the tablet. The following phases for each participant were dependent on the prior phase, with a final choice phase. All participants showed lower levels of problem behaviors and higher levels of compliance when tablets were introduced contingent upon completing work. For all participants, the tablet was chosen 100% of the time, and two participants had 100% accuracy and compliance while using the tablet.

I detta examensarbetesprojekt genomfördes en flygkartering över deponiområdet Stomsjö i Värnamo kommun, mha. en drönare, eller den i detta sammanhang mer använda benämningen UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle). Värnamo kommuns tekniska avdelning var i behov av beräkning av massor vid deponin, ett område på ca 15 hektar samt modellering av densamma. Den låga kostnaden för inköp av UAV och programvara motiverade kommunen att driva egen verksamhet jämfört med att köpa tjänsterna från konsulter. Projektets syfte är att utveckla en effektiv arbetsmetod för kartering i 2D och 3D med UAV samt att dokumentera arbetsgång och hur den geografiska informationen ska kvalitetssäkras och testas. Flygningen är den första och denna rapport ska utgöra ett underlag för kommande flygningar inom kommunen. Insamling av geografisk information utfördes med quadrokoptern DJI Phantom 4 från fyra olika flyghöjder 50, 75, 100 och 120 meter. Fyra 3D-modeller, ortofoton och digitala höjdmodeller (DEM) har tagits fram i programvaran Agisoft. Sammanlagt mättes 6 markstöd in över området samt en kontrollruta (5x5 punkter) på en hårdgjord asfaltsyta. Utifrån kontrollrutan gjordes en jämförelse mellan inmätta GPS-punkters höjdvärden mot rastervärden från respektive höjdmodell. Vid samtliga flygningar erhålls en upplösning (GSD) på mindre än 3 cm/pix i ortofoto. Upplösningen för samtliga höjdmodeller var mindre än 6 cm/pix. Lantmäteriet har under år 2015 genomfört flygfotografering på 2 500 m höjd över området. En jämförelse mellan Lantmäteriets höjddata mot höjddata genererad från UAV-flygfotograferingen gjordes genom en slumpmässig spridning av punkter på hårdgjorda ytor. Resultaten visar att 100 meters flygningen bäst överensstämmer mot Lantmäteriets data. Volym- och areaberäkning gjordes för den södra deponin. Det avgränsade områdets areal är ca 34 300 m2 och volymen 290 000 m3. / In this project the area Stomsjö in Värnamo municipality was mapped using a Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV). Since 1972 Stomsjö landfill is a part of the municipality. The municipality´s technical department needed a calculation and modelling of mass in a landfill, comprising an area of 15hectares. The purpose of the project is to develop an effective mapping method in 2D and 3D with UAV data, and to document the process to ensure geographical information quality. The flight performed in the study constitutes a basis for further upcoming flights within the municipality. The acquisition of geographical data was made at four different altitudes 50, 75, 100 and 120 meters using a DJI Phantom 4 quadcopter. Four 3D models, orthophotos and Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) were created with the software Agisoft PhotoScan. A total of 6 Ground Control Points (GCP) and a control surface on asphalt (5x5 points) were used for evaluation of the models accuracy. A comparison between measured GPS points and raster values from each flight were made on a control surface. The resolution for each generated orthophoto was less than 3 cm/pix. The resolution of the DEMs was less than 6 cm/pix. Lantmäteriet (The Swedish Mapping, Cadastral and Land Registration Authority) conducted aerial photograph acquisition at 2 500 m altitude over the area in 2015. A comparison between altitude data from Lantmäteriet and altitude data from UAV was made through random points generation. The acquisition at 100 meters altitude showed the lowest deviation forms the data derived by Lantmäteriet. Volume and area measurements were performed at the southern part of the landfill. The selected area is about 34 300 m2 in size and the volume amounts to 290 000 m3.

The recall of positive autobiographical memories is an effective strategy for improving negative mood among healthy persons, yet individuals with a history of depression often fail to derive emotional benefits. Depressed and depression-vulnerable individuals also exhibit deficits in their autobiographical memory characteristics. Scholars have implicated deficits during autobiographical memory retrieval as a cause of mood repair and memory impairments, however the role of memory encoding has largely been overlooked. The current study manipulated encoding style to examine subsequent effects on mood repair efficacy, memory characteristics, and memory accuracy. Fifty-five formerly depressed and 68 never-depressed participants were assigned to employ either a concrete or natural encoding style while engaging in a positive event staged in the laboratory. After a negative mood induction, participants were given the opportunity to improve their moods by recalling details of the positive event. Results failed to support the hypothesized interaction of depression status and encoding style. Interpretations of the null findings are provided and implications of the study are discussed.

This thesis is aimed at forecasting of experimental results in a lab environment, investigating often discussed external validity of laboratory experiments. We run a novel laboratory experiment in which the subject pool is asked to make predictions on results of a certain field experiment. The collected data is ana­ lyzed using different accuracy measures, arriving at several interesting results. First, the forecast among the 94 subjects is quite informative about the actual treatment effects although its accuracy substantially varies based on a type of accuracy measure and a particular treatment. Second, the average forecast is either more accurate or at least comparable to the mean individual forecast, proving the presence of "wisdom-of-crowds" effect.

A previsão de demanda desempenha um papel de fundamental importância dentro das organizações, pois através dela é possível obter uma declaração antecipada do volume demandado no futuro, permitindo aos gestores a tomarem decisões mais consistentes e alocarem os recursos de modo eficaz para atender esta demanda. Entretanto, a eficiência na tomada de decisões e alocação dos recursos requer previsões cada vez mais acuradas. Diante deste contexto, a combinação de previsões tem sido amplamente utilizada com o intuito de melhorar a acurácia e, consequentemente, a precisão das previsões. Este estudo tem por objetivo fazer a adaptação de um modelo de previsão para estimar a demanda de produtos destinados à suplementação animal através da combinação de previsões, considerando as variáveis que possam impactar na demanda e a opinião de especialistas. O trabalho está estruturado em dois artigos, sendo que no primeiro buscou-se priorizar e selecionar, através do Processo Hierárquico Analítico (AHP), variáveis que possam impactar na demanda para que estas pudessem ser avaliadas na modelagem via regressão do artigo 2. Por sua vez, no segundo artigo, realizou-se a adaptação do modelo composto de previsão idealizado por Werner (2004), buscando uma previsão final mais acurada. Os resultados obtidos reforçam que as previsões, quando combinadas, apresentam desempenhos superiores para as medidas de acurácia MAPE, MAE e MSE, em relação às previsões individuais. / The demand prediction has a role of fundamental importance inside the organizations, because trough it is possible to obtain a previous declaration of the demanded amount in the future, allowing the managers to take more consistent decisions and to allocate the resources in an efficient manner in order to satisfy this demand. However, the efficiency in the support decision and resource allocation demands accurated predictions. So, the combination of predictions have been used with the aim of improving the accuracy and, consequently, the precision of the prediction. This study has as objective to do an adaptation of a prediction model to estimate the demand of products designated to animal supplementation through the combination of prediction, considering the variables that can impact in the demand and in the expert opinion. The work is structured in two papers, considering that the first searches to priorize and select through the Analitic Hierarch Process (AHP), variables that can impact in the demand, so they could be evalute in the regression modelling of the paper 2. By the way, in the second paper, it was done an adaptation of the composed prediction model proposed by Werner (2004), searching for a more accurated final prediction. The obtained results reinforce that the prediction, when combined, present superior performance to the accuracy metrics MAPE, MAE and MSE, in relation to the individual predictions.

No description available.

This paper is predicated on determining the effectiveness of angles-only initial orbit determination (IOD) methods when limited observational data is available for low-Earth orbit (LEO) rocket body debris. The analysis will be conducted with data obtained from Lockheed Martin Space’s Space Object Tracking (SpOT) facility, focusing on their observational data from 2018 that contains tracking of rocket body debris for less than one minute per overhead pass. After the IOD accuracies are better understood, a feasibility study will follow that investigates the possibility of cataloguing LEO orbital debris from a single optical observation facility with similar observational capabilities as that of the SpOT facility. The IOD accuracy analysis will investigate nine different rocket bodies, with a total of 50 orbital passes of data included in the research. Three main IOD approaches will be tested for each data set to determine the best method in achieving high levels of IOD accuracy: a traditional three-point method, an iterative method, and an assumed-circular orbit method. Application of the iterative approach results in increased accuracy for the resultant initial orbit determination as compared to the three-point IOD method, and an assumed-circular orbit assumption allows for a further increase in accuracy, especially for observed objects in near-circular orbits. The feasibility of cataloguing debris from a singular optical facility shows promise, as subsequent target acquisition after an object’s initial observation is determined to be achievable under the correct circumstances. By choosing a correct telescope pointing angle based on the IOD results from one pass of data, an observed rocket body debris object would pass through the field of view of SpOT’s spotter scope (0.7-degrees) during its next overhead pass for two different test cases. An increase field of view would increase both the likelihood of acquiring the target object and the amount of time the object is visible by the telescope.

The diploma thesis deals with a testing of the real coordinates accuracy measured in favorable and unfavorable conditions, which are determined by method GNSS RTK. The work explores the real accuracy and reliability of heights measurement with the signal noise and multipath interference occurring, caused by surrounding vegetation, buildings, power lines, and also the accuracy under optimal conditions while measuring in a meadow. Influence of day time, observation length, correction provider to internal and external precision is watched. It also examines the issues of initialization in these conditions. For this purpose was collected set of statistics containing 960 measurements on 30 points. During survey was used apparatus Trimble R4. GNSS measurements were statistically processed and evaluated and finally the results were compared with the results of Bc. Klára Kordasová, who measured the same tested points with identical methodology using apparatus from Leica company. Results of the thesis can be used in praxis.