The purpose of this research is to study and improve decision accuracy in the real world. Spot price prediction of petroleum products, in a budgeting context, is the task chosen to study prediction accuracy. Prediction accuracy of executives in a multinational oil company is examined. The Brunswik Lens Model framework is used to evaluate prediction accuracy. Predictions of the individuals, the composite group (mathematical average of the individuals), the interacting group, and the environmental model were compared. Predictions of the individuals were obtained through a laboratory experiment in which experts were used as subjects. The subjects were required to make spot price predictions for two petroleum products. Eight predictor variables that were actually used by the subjects in real-world predictions were elicited through an interview process. Data for a 15 month period were used to construct 31 cases for each of the two products. Prediction accuracy was evaluated by comparing predictions with the actual spot prices. Predictions of the composite group were obtained by averaging the predictions of the individuals. Interacting group predictions were obtained ex post from the company's records. The study found the interacting group to be the least accurate. The implication of this finding is that even though an interacting group may be desirable for information synthesis, evaluation, or working toward group consensus, it is undesirable if prediction accuracy is critical. The accuracy of the environmental model was found to be the highest. This suggests that apart from random error, misweighting of cues by individuals and groups affects prediction accuracy. Another implication of this study is that the environmental model can also be used as an additional input in the prediction process to improve accuracy.

In a recent article, Bai and Perron (2003, Journal of Applied Econometrics) present a comprehensive discussion of computational aspects of multiple structural change models along with several empirical examples. Here, we report on the results of a replication study using the R statistical software package. We are able to verify most of their findings; however, some confidence intervals associated with breakpoints cannot be reproduced. These confidence intervals require computation of the quantiles of a nonstandard distribution, the distribution of the argmax functional of a certain stochastic process. Interestingly, the difficulties appear to be due to numerical problems in GAUSS, the software package used by Bai and Perron. / Series: Research Report Series / Department of Statistics and Mathematics

During the radio therapy treatment, it has been difficult to synchronize the radiation beam with the tumor position. Many compensation techniques have been used before. But all these techniques have some system latency, up to a few hundred milliseconds. Hence it is necessary to predict tumor position to compensate for the control system latency. In recent years, many attempts have been made to predict the position of a moving tumor during respiration. Analyzing external breathing signals presents a methodology in predicting the tumor position. Breathing patterns vary from very regular to irregular patterns. The irregular breathing patterns make prediction difficult. A solution is presented in this paper which utilizes neural networks as the predictive filter to determine the tumor position up to 500 milliseconds in the future. Two different neural network architectures, feedforward backpropagation network and recurrent network, are used for prediction. These networks are initialized in the same manner for the comparison of their prediction accuracies. The networks are able to predict well for all the 5 breathing cases used in the research and the results of both the networks are acceptable and comparable. Furthermore, the network parameters are optimized using a genetic algorithm to improve the performance. The optimization results obtained proved to improve the accuracy of the networks. The results of both the networks showed that the networks are good for prediction of different breathing behaviors.

How accurately people perceive interpersonal relationships, both among others and with themselves, forms the basis of social inferences about the structure of the social environment and one's place in it. Six hypotheses were tested using the cognitive social structures method from social network analysis with five independent but similar student networks from two universities. Results from all networks were meta-analyzed. Participants gave both their self-reported friendship ratings for every alter in their group and also gave their perceptions of the ratings the other member would give. Perception ratings were correlated to self-report ratings for each participant as a measure of accuracy of social network perception. Participants perceived more structural balance than was present in self-reports in four out of five networks and in the meta-analysis, providing evidence for the balance schema. Attachment anxiety correlated negatively with accuracy for one of the networks but was not statistically significant in the meta-analysis. Being located in a tightly-knit subgroup reduced overall network accuracy, consistent with the strength of weak ties (SWT) theory, in one network but not in the meta-analysis. In only one network did participants overestimated how central they were, though not significantly in the meta-analysis. Being more central in the social network was unrelated to accuracy, as was the mean social network distance between perceiver and targets. Results provide meta-analytic support for the balance schema and limited support for attachment, SWT, and egocentric bias in social network perception.

Title: Strength as a determinant of kick speed of young soccer players. Objectives: Identify the relationship of strength of extensors and flexors of knee and the kick speed and accuracy of young soccer players. Methods: The study group consists of 20 players in the age between 20-25 years (22,45±1,12 years) league level engaged in the provision of an elite soccer club. The players passed the tests of strength abilities week before field testing of kick speed and accuracy. Strength extensors and flexors of knee were measured in laboratory conditions at three different stages of the angular velocity of the dominant and nondominant lower leg. After week the players completed three shots on goal by preferred and non-preferred leg, where we measured the speed and accuracy of kick. Results: The results of work submit information about relationship between the strength of extensors and flexors of knee and the kick speed and accuracy depending on the degree of angular velocity. It has been found moderate - strong correlation between conditionings depending on the different degrees of angular speed of the movement. Keywords: accuracy, kick, skill, soccer, speed, strength

Title: Accuracy in throwing on the vertical target depending on combination of crossed and identical hand - eye laterality in selected population of FTVS students. Objectives: The aim of this study is determination of any disparity in success rate and darts distribution among selected strongly right-handed and left- handed population of male and female students of FTVS in throwing on the vertically positioned target. Methods: The main research method was used descriptive association method. A total of 60 individuals were enrolled in the study. We used Musalek's test battery (2013) containing questionnaire part, preferential tasks and proficiency tests to define particular sidedness of individual probands. Further a specific task of the throw at the target was employed. For data analysis we used descriptive statistics methods, chi-squared test goodness of fit, analysis of variance, tetrachoric correlation and level of substantive significance expressed by Cohen's d. Results: The results indicated that left-handed individuals did not show a significantly better accuracy in throwing at the vertically positioned target compared with right-handed individuals. It seems that gender is an important factor that affects the level of accuracy in the throws on target because male showed significantly better...

Title: History of skydiving - precision landing Objectives of work: The aim of this work is to map complexly and integraly the history of skydiving with a focus on racing discipline of precision landing. Due to insufficient number of relevant compact resources and web sites, so the work becomes the first file that holds the issue in a comprehensive manner and develop a unified overview of the analysis problem. Method: This is a theoretical work, the kernel of the work will be at tracing specialized publications and websites, collecting information, filtering the relevant data in their comprehensive use. Results: Objective of thesis was largely achieved. It turned out that the topic is very broad to draw up a detailed summery of the entire history of the research question. The topic was therefore processed generally and is more like a preview than a perfect description. Intended overview was given. Key words: Skydiving, parachute, competitive discipline, precision landing, history.

Title: Progress of discipline precision landing based on the development of a circular parachute Objectives of work: The aim of this work is to map the history of skydiving with a focus on racing discipline of precision landing and on the development of a circular parachute. Due to insufficient number of compact resources and web sites, so the work becomes the file that holds the issue in a comprehensive manner and develop a unified overview of the analysis problem. Method: This is a theoretical work, the kernel of the work will be at tracing specialized publications, journals and websites, collecting information, filtering the relevant data in their comprehensive use. Results: Objective of thesis was largely achieved. It turned out that the topic is very broad to draw up a detailed summery of the entire history of the research question. The topic was therefore processed generally and is more like a preview than a perfect description. Intended overview was given. Key words: Skydiving, parachute, competitive discipline, precision landing, history.

The need for high speed and cost efficient inspection in manufacturing lineshas led to a vast usage of camera-based vision systems. The performance ofthese systems is sufficient to determine shape and size, but hardly to an accuracylevel comparable with traditional metrology tools. To achieve highprecision shape/position/defect measurements, the camera techniques haveto be combined with high performance image metrology techniques whichare developed and adapted to the manufactured components. The focus ofthis thesis is the application of enhanced image analysis as a tool for highprecision metrology. Dedicated algorithms have been developed, tested andevaluated in three practical cases ranging from micro manufacturing at submicronprecision to meter sized aerospace components with precision requirementsin the 10 μm range.The latter measurement challenge was solved by low cost standard consumerproducts, i.e. digital cameras in a stereo configuration and structured lightfrom a gobo-projector. Combined with high-precision image analysis and anew approach in camera calibration and 3D reconstruction for precise 3Dshape measurement of meter sized surfaces, the achievement was fulfilledand verified by two conventional measurement systems; a high precisioncoordinate measurement machine and a laser scanner.The sub-micron challenge was the implementation of image metrology forverification of micro manufacturing installations within a joint Europeaninfrastructure network, EUMINAfab. The results were an unpleasant surprisefor some of the participating laboratories, but became a big step forwardto improve the dimensional accuracy of the investigated laser micromachining, micro milling and micro-printing systems, since the accuracy ofthese techniques are very difficult to assess.The third high precision metrology challenge was the measurement of longrange,low-amplitude topographic structures on specular (shiny) aerodynamicsurfaces. In this case Fringe Reflection Technique (FRT) was appliedand image analysis algorithms were used to evaluate the fringe deformationas a measure of the surface slopes to obtain high resolution data. The resultwas compared with an interferometric analysis showing height deviation inthe range of tens of micrometers over a lateral extension of several cm. / <p>QC 20170523</p> / LOCOMACHS / EUMINAfab / Cleansky

Approved for public release; distribution in unlimited. / Management of the Naval integrated supply system depends on data to provide reliable information on the quantities of items in stock at any given time. Because of the high volume of transactions that continually alter data in the inventory system, inventory record errors are practically unavoidable. The purpose of this thesis is to determine the effects of inventory data errors on both cost and effectiveness of operations at a Naval inventory site. The methodology adopted for research consists of a series of multiple-item, single-warehouse, Monte Carlo simulations, focused on one U.S. Navy inventory site, using estimates of inventory data accuracy obtained at that site. Results of the simulations show that inventory costs can be decreased and customer demand effectiveness increased by decreasing the magnitude of inventory record errors to less than ten percent. It is therefore recommended that the Navy expand its inventory accuracy goal to require that no item have an inventory record error magnitude greater than ten percent. Inventory costs and effectiveness in meeting demand for Naval material were not found to be substantially affected by inventory record inaccuracy if the magnitude of error is less than ten percent. / Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy