Rural-urban migration in Sub-Saharan African countries has been increasing since the 1960s. In Senegal from 1961 to 1996, it grew 7.6% per annum. Labour market in the modern industrial and service sectors is so depressed that urban workers face high unemployment and poverty rates, and live in substandard conditions in the fringe urban sector. The purpose of this study is to examine policies needed to reduce rural-urban migration through selected agricultural investments, especially given that a long run of low agricultural productivity has been a major cause of rural-urban migration flows. / Based on a recursive system of equations, an estimate was made of rural-urban migration elasticity caused by agricultural inputs and their impact on migration. The model used combines a Cobb-Douglas agricultural production equation along with a rural-urban migration equation with agricultural output as an explanatory variable. The study period is 36 years from 1961 to 1996. / Our findings support the hypothesis that rural-urban migration is a positive outcome function of the urban-rural wage ratio that is proxied by the ratio of urban per capita income to rural per capita income. The results justify the design of a policy aimed at reducing rural-urban migration flows through increasing per capita earnings by means of increased agricultural investments. For instance, 10% increase of fertiliser lowers rural-urban migration by 20.5% while 10% increase of agricultural infrastructure reduces rural-urban migration of about 32.2%. If one extrapolates these results, fertiliser and infrastructure need to be increased respectively by 36% and 25% or both inputs by 13.09% to reach rural-urban migration annual rate of 2%, the level of industrial labour demand.

No description available.