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Understanding trans-basin floods in Germany : data, information and knowledgeUhlemann, Steffi January 2013 (has links)
Large Central European flood events of the past have demonstrated that flooding can affect several river basins at the same time leading to catastrophic economic and humanitarian losses that can stretch emergency resources beyond planned levels of service. For Germany, the spatial coherence of flooding, the contributing processes and the role of trans-basin floods for a national risk assessment is largely unknown and analysis is limited by a lack of systematic data, information and knowledge on past events.
This study investigates the frequency and intensity of trans-basin flood events in Germany. It evaluates the data and information basis on which knowledge about trans-basin floods can be generated in order to improve any future flood risk assessment. In particu-lar, the study assesses whether flood documentations and related reports can provide a valuable data source for understanding trans-basin floods.
An adaptive algorithm was developed that systematically captures trans-basin floods using series of mean daily discharge at a large number of sites of even time series length (1952-2002). It identifies the simultaneous occurrence of flood peaks based on the exceedance of an initial threshold of a 10 year flood at one location and consecutively pools all causally related, spatially and temporally lagged peak recordings at the other locations. A weighted cumulative index was developed that accounts for the spatial extent and the individual flood magnitudes within an event and allows quantifying the overall event severity. The parameters of the method were tested in a sensitivity analysis. An intensive study on sources and ways of information dissemination of flood-relevant publications in Germany was conducted. Based on the method of systematic reviews a strategic search approach was developed to identify relevant documentations for each of the 40 strongest trans-basin flood events. A novel framework for assessing the quality of event specific flood reports from a user’s perspective was developed and validated by independent peers. The framework was designed to be generally applicable for any natural hazard type and assesses the quality of a document addressing accessibility as well as representational, contextual, and intrinsic dimensions of quality.
The analysis of time-series of mean daily discharge resulted in the identification of 80 trans-basin flood events within the period 1952-2002 in Germany. The set is dominated by events that were recorded in the hydrological winter (64%); 36% occurred during the summer months. The occurrence of floods is characterised by a distinct clustering in time. Dividing the study period into two sub-periods, we find an increase in the percentage of winter events from 58% in the first to 70.5% in the second sub-period. Accordingly, we find a significant increase in the number of extreme trans-basin floods in the second sub-period.
A large body of 186 flood relevant documentations was identified. For 87.5% of the 40 strongest trans-basin floods in Germany at least one report has been found and for the most severe floods a substantial amount of documentation could be obtained. 80% of the material can be considered grey literature (i.e. literature not controlled by commercial publishers).
The results of the quality assessment show that the majority of flood event specific reports are of a good quality, i.e. they are well enough drafted, largely accurate and objective, and contain a substantial amount of information on the sources, pathways and receptors/consequences of the floods. The inclusion of this information in the process of knowledge building for flood risk assessment is recommended.
Both the results as well as the data produced in this study are openly accessible and can be used for further research.
The results of this study contribute to an improved spatial risk assessment in Germany. The identified set of trans-basin floods provides the basis for an assessment of the chance that flooding occurs simultaneously at a number of sites. The information obtained from flood event documentation can usefully supplement the analysis of the processes that govern flood risk. / Abschätzungen zum Hochwasserrisiko beschränken sich zumeist auf die Analyse innerhalb eines Einzugsgebietes bzw. eines bestimmten Ortes. Die Zusammenhänge in größeren Regionen und vor allem Korrelationen zwischen verschiedenen Einzugsgebieten werden nur selten betrachtet. Solche einzugsgebietsübergreifenden Analysen sind jedoch sowohl für die Versicherungswirtschaft, den Katastrophenschutz sowie für großräumige strategische Hochwasserplanungen notwendig. Allerdings stehen nur für eine geringe Auswahl historischer Ereignisse Daten zur Verfügung und systematische Ansätze zu ihrer Erfassung wurden für Deutschland bisher nicht entwickelt.
Die vorliegende Studie untersucht zum ersten die Häufigkeit und Intensität von flussgebietsübergreifenden Hochwasserereignissen in Deutschland anhand von gemessenen Abflüssen an einer Vielzahl von Stationen. Es können insgesamt 80 Hochwasserereignisse in Deutschland im Zeitraum von 1952-2002 nachgewiesen werden. Davon treten die meisten Ereignissen im hydrologischen Winterhalbjahr auf (64%). Wir können nachweisen, dass die Häufigkeit des Auftretens in verschiedenen Perioden unterschiedlich ist, und dass im Untersuchungszeitraum eine signifikante Zunahme von Winterereignissen und damit vor allem von sehr schweren flussgebietsübergreifenden Hochwasserereignissen zu verzeichnen ist.
Die Studie hatte des Weiteren zum Ziel, die verfügbare Daten- und Informationsgrundlage zur Hochwasseranalyse zu erkunden. Im speziellen wird untersucht, inwieweit Hochwasserereignisdokumentationen und verwandte Berichte als eine weitere Datenquelle für ein verbessertes Prozessverständnis genutzt werden können. Im Rahmen einer systematischen Suche konnten für die 40 größten Hochwasserereignisse in Deutschland 186 relevante Berichte identifiziert werden. 80% des Materials kann als Grauliteratur eingestuft werden, d.h. als Veröffentlichungen welche nicht durch kommerzielle Verleger publiziert wird. Die sich daraus ergebende Frage nach der Qualität der Dokumente und ihres Informationsgehaltes wurde durch die Entwicklung und Anwendung eines Qualitätsbewertungsschemas beantwortet. Die Ergebnisse der Qualitätsbewertung zeigen, dass die Mehrheit der ereignisspezifischen Hochwasserberichte von guter Qualität ist, d.h. die Berichte sind in ausreichender Qualität verfasst, größtenteils korrekt und objektiv und beinhalten eine substantielle Menge an Informationen zu den Ursachen, Verläufen, betroffenen Objekten und Schäden eines Ereignisses. Es wird empfohlen diese Informationen in die Wissenssynthese für die Hochwasserrisikobewertung einfließen zu lassen.
Sowohl Ergebnisse als auch Daten dieser Studie sind so publiziert, dass sie öffentlich zugänglich sind und für weitere Forschungsfragen genutzt werden können.
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Semi-Quantitative Assessment Framework for Corrosion Damaged Slab-on-Girder Bridge Columns Using Simplified Nonlinear Finite Element AnalysisMohammed, Amina 06 May 2014 (has links)
Most of existing North American bridge infrastructure is reported to be deficient. Present infrastructure management mainly relies on qualitative evaluation, where bridge safety and serviceability are judged through routine visual inspection. With the successive increase in the number of severely deficient bridges and the limited available resources, it is crucial to develop a performance-based quantitative assessment evaluation approach that enables an accurate estimation of aging bridges ultimate and seismic capacities and ensures their serviceability. Reinforcement corrosion is the main cause of most of North American concrete infrastructure deterioration. Experimental investigations prove that reinforcement corrosion results in reduction of the steel reinforcement cross sectional area, localized (or global in very extreme cases) loss of bond action, concrete spalling, loss of core concrete confinement, and structural collapse. Field observations show that damage due to reinforcement corrosion in reinforced concrete (RC) bridge columns is localized in highly affected zones by splash of deicing water.
In this thesis, an innovative performance-based semi-quantitative assessment framework is developed using newly developed simplified nonlinear static and dynamic finite element analysis approaches. The framework integrates the bridge’s available design and after-construction information with enhanced inspection and additional material testing as sources for accurate input data. In order to evaluate the structural performance and the capacity of the corrosion-damaged bridge columns, four nonlinear static and dynamic analysis approaches have been developed: (i) simplified nonlinear sectional analysis (NLSA) approach that presents the basis of the analysis approaches to estimate the ultimate and seismic capacities, and serviceability of bridge columns; (ii) simplified nonlinear finite element analysis (NLFEA) approach, which enables estimating the ultimate structural capacity of corrosion-damaged RC columns; (iii) simplified hybrid linear/nonlinear dynamic finite element analysis (SHDFEA) approach to evaluate the serviceability of the bridge; and, (iv) simplified non-linear seismic analysis (SNLSA) approach to evaluate the seismic capacity of the bridge columns. The four analysis approaches are verified by comprehensive comparisons with available test experimental and analytical results. The proposed semi-quantitative assessment framework suggests three thresholds for each performance measure of the evaluation limit states to be decided by the bridge management system team. Case studies are presented to show the integrity and the consistency of using the proposed assessment framework. The proposed assessment framework together with the analysis approaches provide bridge owners, practicing engineers, and management teams with simplified and accurate evaluation tools, which lead to reduce the maintenance/rehabilitation cost and provide better safety, and reduce the variation in the data collected using only traditional inspection methods.
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Semi-Quantitative Assessment Framework for Corrosion Damaged Slab-on-Girder Bridge Columns Using Simplified Nonlinear Finite Element AnalysisMohammed, Amina January 2014 (has links)
Most of existing North American bridge infrastructure is reported to be deficient. Present infrastructure management mainly relies on qualitative evaluation, where bridge safety and serviceability are judged through routine visual inspection. With the successive increase in the number of severely deficient bridges and the limited available resources, it is crucial to develop a performance-based quantitative assessment evaluation approach that enables an accurate estimation of aging bridges ultimate and seismic capacities and ensures their serviceability. Reinforcement corrosion is the main cause of most of North American concrete infrastructure deterioration. Experimental investigations prove that reinforcement corrosion results in reduction of the steel reinforcement cross sectional area, localized (or global in very extreme cases) loss of bond action, concrete spalling, loss of core concrete confinement, and structural collapse. Field observations show that damage due to reinforcement corrosion in reinforced concrete (RC) bridge columns is localized in highly affected zones by splash of deicing water.
In this thesis, an innovative performance-based semi-quantitative assessment framework is developed using newly developed simplified nonlinear static and dynamic finite element analysis approaches. The framework integrates the bridge’s available design and after-construction information with enhanced inspection and additional material testing as sources for accurate input data. In order to evaluate the structural performance and the capacity of the corrosion-damaged bridge columns, four nonlinear static and dynamic analysis approaches have been developed: (i) simplified nonlinear sectional analysis (NLSA) approach that presents the basis of the analysis approaches to estimate the ultimate and seismic capacities, and serviceability of bridge columns; (ii) simplified nonlinear finite element analysis (NLFEA) approach, which enables estimating the ultimate structural capacity of corrosion-damaged RC columns; (iii) simplified hybrid linear/nonlinear dynamic finite element analysis (SHDFEA) approach to evaluate the serviceability of the bridge; and, (iv) simplified non-linear seismic analysis (SNLSA) approach to evaluate the seismic capacity of the bridge columns. The four analysis approaches are verified by comprehensive comparisons with available test experimental and analytical results. The proposed semi-quantitative assessment framework suggests three thresholds for each performance measure of the evaluation limit states to be decided by the bridge management system team. Case studies are presented to show the integrity and the consistency of using the proposed assessment framework. The proposed assessment framework together with the analysis approaches provide bridge owners, practicing engineers, and management teams with simplified and accurate evaluation tools, which lead to reduce the maintenance/rehabilitation cost and provide better safety, and reduce the variation in the data collected using only traditional inspection methods.
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Management kvality jako nástroj zvyšování efektivity municipalit / Quality management as a tool for improving the efficiency of municipalitiesMuchnová, Julie January 2012 (has links)
The aim of this thesis is to define methods and techniques of quality management as a tool for improving the efficiency of municipalities. The theoretical part deals with the concept of quality and its management, the European Union's attitude and the basic methods of quality management in municipalities. Especially, the method of the Common Assessment Framework (CAF) is discussed. Finally, the theoretical background characterizes the town of Sušice, its activity and the functional composition of the municipal authority in Sušice. In the practical part, the CAF model is implemented into the municipal authority in Sušice. It provides a report describing the results of self-assessment, information about the evaluation team, procedures and forms of assessment, and responses to the questions of the CAF model. The outcome includes the evaluation of individual criteria, the summary of results using the SWOT analysis and a draft of the improvement plan.
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Risky Business: The Intersection of Sustainability and Credit Risk Assessment – a Strategic PerspectiveGiunta, Vincenzo, Bäckman, Emma, Salirwe, Monica Elizabeth, Kalyonge, Jackline January 2023 (has links)
The imminent consequences of the deteriorating state of the socio-ecological systems pose significant challenges to the well-being of society and societal functioning. The financial sector, specifically banks, plays a crucial role in the transition toward sustainable development because they hold the financial resources and the power to allocate these resources. For banks to contribute to this transition, credit risk assessment (CRA) can serve as an impactful process for sustainability integration. However, as CRA is a well-incorporated process within banks, it is unclear if it is strategic enough to support a transition toward sustainability. This research, therefore, aims to analyse the key gaps, opportunities, and limitations for integrating sustainability considerations into the credit risk assessment process using a strategic sustainable development (SSD) lens. The Framework for Strategic Sustainable Development (FSSD) was used as a conceptual framework to give a better understanding of the sustainability challenge and to analyse how credit risk assessment can contribute to sustainable development. Data were collected through document review and semi-structured interviews with practitioners from Nordic banks who have relevant experience to explain how banks incorporate sustainability into their credit risk assessment practices within corporate lending and credit. A semi-systematic literature review was also done to determine the views and methods of integrating sustainability considerations into the credit risk assessment process according to academic literature. The findings were structured using the FSSD’s 5-Level Model (5LM) to identify the key gaps, limitations, and opportunities in literature and practice. The results suggest that the key gaps in integrating sustainability into the credit risk assessment process are sustainability data inadequacy, inaccessibility, incomparability, trustworthiness, and storage, and the qualitative manner of sustainability data. Further to these limitations is a competence gap where crucial skillsets needed include systems and sector-specific sustainability knowledge.
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The Common Assessment Framework: does the reality match the rhetoric?Gilligan, Philip A., Manby, M. 05 1900 (has links)
The Common Assessment Framework (CAF) is an important part of
the procedures envisaged in the government¿s Every Child Matters:
Change for Children (ECM: CFC) programme. Implementation of CAF,
in particular, raises many important questions, not least those arising
from the inconsistencies apparent between government rhetoric
around the development of multi-agency services provided to all
children with `additional¿ needs and the actual experiences of children,
young people, parents/carers and practitioners in `real world¿
situations. This paper explores the extent to which the actions of
practitioners and the experiences of service users with regard to CAF
mirror or differ from those which would be expected in view of the
content of government guidance and policy documents.The data used
is taken from an evaluation of CAF processes in two locations in
northern England over a period of 6 months. It concludes that very
small numbers of children and young people actually received the
service; that, despite genuine enthusiasm from practitioners for them
to be so, the processes observed could not yet be described as fully
`child centred¿; that fathers were insufficiently involved; and that CAF
was, in reality, another service `rationed¿ according to resources
available and according to agencies¿ priorities.
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Assessment of Manufacturing-Execution-System Functions with respect to Artificial Intelligence SuitabilitySengöz, Yasin January 2020 (has links)
Artificial Intelligence arises in the manufacturing field very rapidly. Implementing Artificial Intelligence (AI) solutions and algorithms in the manufacturing environment is a well-known research field in academia. On the other hand, Manufacturing-Execution-System (MES) providers do not have a theoretical and pragmatic framework regarding the evaluation of MES functions in respect to their suitability for Artificial Intelligence. In order to be able to pre-evaluate whether a MES function shall be AI supported an intense literature research has been conducted. Academia shows few investigations regarding this field of research. Recent studies have been concerning about possible applications for MES functions in combination with AI. However, there is a lack of research in terms of pre-evaluating a MES function before embedding the function with AI support, since the development of AI solutions for MES functions without pre-evaluating those bears a waste of valuable resources. Therefore, the thesis work introduces an assessment framework consisting of decisive criteria and related indicators which describe qualitatively the suitability of AI for MES functions based on three criteria with related indicators. In addition, the researcher displays furthermore how the developed assessment framework can be used in order to assess the MES functions regarding their AI “readiness”. In order to cope the findings through the thesis work an inductive research approach has been applied. Existing literature in the fields of intelligent manufacturing, Manufacturing-Execution-Systems, machine learning, deep learning, intelligent manufacturing, digital twin, and assessment methodologies have been extensively studied in order to base the theoretical developed framework on grounded theory. A major issue was to focus the development of the assessment framework in harmony with academia and industry. The requirements for academia were met by providing profoundly investigation through the research fields. A case study was carried out in order to test the validity and reliability of the developed assessment framework for industry. The outcome of this thesis work was an assessment framework consisting of decisive criteria and related indicators when evaluating a MES function in respect to its AI suitability. Furthermore, an assessment checklist has been provided for the industry in order to be able to assess a MES function regards AI support in a quick and pragmatic manner. To generate a more generalizable assessment framework criteria and indicators have to be adapted, likewise testing the outcome of analogue and digital assessment methodologies will provide material for future studies. / <p>Successfully defended</p>
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A critical evaluation of the extent to which sustainability was considered in the Medupi power station / Melini HariramHariram, Melini January 2015 (has links)
Sustainable development is described by the World Commission on Environment and Development as ―development that meets the needs of present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs‖. Sustainability assessments are an integrative process and framework for effective integration of social, economic and ecological considerations in significant decision-making processes. Sustainability is incorporated into South African legislation such as the Constitution of the Republic of South Africa (1996), the National Environmental Management Act (Act 107 of 1998), as well as Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) Regulations. Despite the existence of such legislation, the challenge lies in the effective implementation of the EIA process, which has been identified as a useful tool in striving towards achieving sustainable development. This research uses Gibson‘s eight sustainability principles and Gaudreau and Gibson‘s sub-criteria to develop a case specific set of sustainability criteria for coal fired power stations in South Africa. The energy generation sector is a major source of social and environmental impacts. Coal power stations contribute to environmental degradation such as reduced air, water and land quality. This industrial process impacts on the environment and therefore needs to strive towards sustainable development by considering these criteria during the EIA process. The set of case specific sustainability criteria for power stations was then used to evaluate the EIA developed for Medupi Power Station in South Africa in order to assess, the extent to which sustainability was considered in the EIA process. The key finding is that sustainability is incorporated into South African legislation hence no change in legislation is required. Despite the existence of legislation, the challenge lies in the fact that is it not always effectively implemented. The EIA process is seen as a tool that can effectively deliver sustainability outcomes. However this process is not effectively utilised. In order for the EIA to consider sustainability the focus needs to be on the following criteria: Intragenerational Equity; Precaution and Adaptation for Resilience; as well as Immediate and Long term Integration, as these were recognised as weaknesses after the evaluation process. The recommendation is also to develop a set of case specific sustainability criteria for other large industries that have significant environmental impacts. / MSc (Environmental Management), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2015
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A critical evaluation of the extent to which sustainability was considered in the Medupi power station / Melini HariramHariram, Melini January 2015 (has links)
Sustainable development is described by the World Commission on Environment and Development as ―development that meets the needs of present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs‖. Sustainability assessments are an integrative process and framework for effective integration of social, economic and ecological considerations in significant decision-making processes. Sustainability is incorporated into South African legislation such as the Constitution of the Republic of South Africa (1996), the National Environmental Management Act (Act 107 of 1998), as well as Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) Regulations. Despite the existence of such legislation, the challenge lies in the effective implementation of the EIA process, which has been identified as a useful tool in striving towards achieving sustainable development. This research uses Gibson‘s eight sustainability principles and Gaudreau and Gibson‘s sub-criteria to develop a case specific set of sustainability criteria for coal fired power stations in South Africa. The energy generation sector is a major source of social and environmental impacts. Coal power stations contribute to environmental degradation such as reduced air, water and land quality. This industrial process impacts on the environment and therefore needs to strive towards sustainable development by considering these criteria during the EIA process. The set of case specific sustainability criteria for power stations was then used to evaluate the EIA developed for Medupi Power Station in South Africa in order to assess, the extent to which sustainability was considered in the EIA process. The key finding is that sustainability is incorporated into South African legislation hence no change in legislation is required. Despite the existence of legislation, the challenge lies in the fact that is it not always effectively implemented. The EIA process is seen as a tool that can effectively deliver sustainability outcomes. However this process is not effectively utilised. In order for the EIA to consider sustainability the focus needs to be on the following criteria: Intragenerational Equity; Precaution and Adaptation for Resilience; as well as Immediate and Long term Integration, as these were recognised as weaknesses after the evaluation process. The recommendation is also to develop a set of case specific sustainability criteria for other large industries that have significant environmental impacts. / MSc (Environmental Management), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2015
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An analysis of learner-centredness within teacher education institutions : case study / Sonja-Mariè van AswegenVan Aswegen, Sonja-Mariè January 2004 (has links)
Over the past few years many changes have taken place in the content and presentation of teacher
education programmes in South Africa due to the paradigm shift from teaching to learning. As a result,
the primary learning environment for undergraduate students, the fairly passive lecture-discussion format
where teacher educators talk and most students listen, is contrary to almost every principle of an optimal
student learning setting. The current view in teacher education is that teacher educators should create
learner-centred and learner-controlled environments where student learning and success determine the
boundary.
The idea of focusing on learning rather than teaching requires that teacher educators rethink their role
and the role of students in the teaching and learning process. When focussing on learning rather than
teaching, teacher educators must challenge their basic assumptions about how people learn and what
the roles of teacher educators should be. It may be necessary to unlearn previously acquired teaching
habits, and rethink the role of assessment and feedback in learning.
Meaningful, formative assessment can play a key role in shifting to a learner-centred approach because
it provides important information to both students and teacher educators at all stages of the learning
process. To achieve this, it is essential that teacher educators do not simply add assessment as an extra
to an existing, non-interactive scheme of work, but that they integrate assessment effectively and
efficiently with their instruction. This requires a major shift in how assessment is planned and integrated
and a working framework for integrating assessment with instruction can be most valuable to teacher
educators.
The purpose of this study was to:
Determine the nature and scope of ESL teacher educators' tasks, within a Faculty of Education Sciences, at a tertiary institution. Determine the extent to which ESL teacher educators are implementing a learner-centred approach to teaching and learning. Identify the factors, if any, that impede the transition to a learner-centred approach to teaching and learning. Provide recommendations to facilitate the implementation of a learner-centred approach to teaching
and learning.
Determine how, when and how often ESL teacher educators are currently conducting assessment.
Identify possible shortcomings of the existing assessment system of ESL teacher educators.
Provide a framework for implementing assessment within a learner-centred approach to teaching and
learning.
A one-shot cross-sectional survey design was used in this study. The participants included all the
teacher educators (N=5) within the Subject Group English in the Faculty of Education Sciences .at the
Potchefstroom University.
Three data collection techniques were used in this study, namely a questionnaire, semi-structured
interviews and classroom observations. The purpose was to triangulate the data in order to get as
complete a picture as possible of the extent to which the teacher educators' teaching and learning
~racticesre flected a focus on learner-centredness.
The results of the study can be summarised as follows:
Descriptive statistics (means and percentages) were used to analyse the data. The data collected during
the interviews were reported as narratives.
The results indicated that the teacher educators in this study spent a significant percentage of their time
on preparation for class meetings and assessment. Each teacher educator taught for the full twelve
weeks of each semester and, therefore, did not have one week free of teaching the entire year.
Although the teacher educators embraced some learner-centred methods such as group work and
interactive class discussions, they still assumed most of the responsibility for the learning processes and
classroom behaviour of the students. They mainly focused on what to present in the contact sessions
and spent time organizing presentations of information rather than developing materials to facilitate
learning. The teacher educators often reverted to more familiar, traditional approaches and emphasized
the following issues as affecting the effective and efficient transition to learner-centredness: curriculum
coverage and lack of time, lack of proper training, size of student groups, other teacher educators'
cynical attitudes and students' attitudes towards learning. The teacher educators made use of a variety of assessment methods and assessed students continuously, but these assessments were not used for promoting student learning, but rather for grading purposes. Students received traditional feedback such as grades, marks and scores, but they seldom received feedback on what they did wrong and how they could rectify it. Overall, it was assessment of
learning and not assessment for learning.
A major factor impeding the implementation of a learner-centred assessment approach was the demand
formative assessment methods placed on the professional time of the teacher educators. In order to
utilise time effectively and integrate assessment with the instructional design, teacher educators expressed the need for a workable framework to assist them in planning their assessment practices. / Thesis (M.Ed.)--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2004.
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