published_or_final_version / Statistics / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

Zhang Yuanxiu. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2002. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 38-39). / Abstracts in English and Chinese.

Au Tsz-yin. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2000. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 76-79). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 1.1 --- Forecasting Time Series --- p.1 / Chapter 1.2 --- Importance of Multiple Forecasts --- p.2 / Chapter 1.3 --- Methodology of Forecasting for Autoregressive Models --- p.3 / Chapter 1.4 --- Bootstrap Approach --- p.9 / Chapter 1.5 --- Objectives --- p.12 / Chapter 2 --- "Bootstrapping Simultaneous Prediction Intervals, Case A: p known" --- p.15 / Chapter 2.1 --- TS Procedure --- p.16 / Chapter 2.2 --- CAO Procedure --- p.18 / Chapter 2.3 --- MAS Procedure --- p.20 / Chapter 3 --- "Bootstrapping Simultaneous Prediction Intervals, Case B: p unknown" --- p.24 / Chapter 3.1 --- TS Procedure --- p.25 / Chapter 3.2 --- CAO Procedure --- p.27 / Chapter 3.3 --- MAS Procedure --- p.28 / Chapter 4 --- Simulation Study --- p.29 / Chapter 4.1 --- Design of The Experiment --- p.29 / Chapter 4.2 --- Simulation Results --- p.33 / Chapter 5 --- A Real-Data Case --- p.36 / Chapter 5.1 --- Case A --- p.37 / Chapter 5.2 --- Case B --- p.42 / Chapter 6 --- Conclusion --- p.46 / Chapter A --- Tables of Simulation Results for Case A --- p.49 / Chapter B --- Tables of Simulation Results for Case B --- p.62 / Chapter C --- References --- p.76

Kong, Cheuk Kwan. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2007. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 42-44). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 2 --- Modelling Piecewise AR model --- p.4 / Chapter 2.1 --- Background --- p.4 / Chapter 2.2 --- Introduction to Auto-FARM --- p.5 / Chapter 2.3 --- Minimum Description Length --- p.6 / Chapter 2.4 --- Genetic Algorithm --- p.9 / Chapter 2.5 --- Reproduction Rules --- p.10 / Chapter 3 --- Bayesian-SCAD Approach --- p.14 / Chapter 3.1 --- Estimation via Penalty Function --- p.15 / Chapter 3.2 --- Introduction to SCAD --- p.17 / Chapter 3.3 --- Local Quadratic Approximation of SCAD --- p.20 / Chapter 3.4 --- Bayesian Formulation and GA Implementation --- p.22 / Chapter 4 --- Simulation Study --- p.25 / Chapter 4.1 --- Piecewise AR Process from Davis et al. (2006) --- p.25 / Chapter 4.2 --- Piecewise Seasonal AR Process --- p.29 / Chapter 5 --- Real Data Analysis --- p.33 / Chapter 5.1 --- Description and Source of Data --- p.33 / Chapter 5.2 --- Model Fitting --- p.36 / Chapter 5.3 --- Prediction Results --- p.39 / Chapter 6 --- Conclusion --- p.40 / Bibliography --- p.42

Cheung Tsai-Yee Crystal. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2001. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 83-85). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 1.1 --- The Importance of Forecasting --- p.1 / Chapter 2 --- Methodology --- p.5 / Chapter 2.1 --- Basic Idea --- p.5 / Chapter 2.2 --- Outliers in Time Series --- p.9 / Chapter 2.2.1 --- One Outlier Case --- p.9 / Chapter 2.2.2 --- Two Outliers Case --- p.17 / Chapter 2.2.3 --- General Case --- p.22 / Chapter 2.2.4 --- Time Series Parameters are Unknown --- p.24 / Chapter 2.3 --- Iterative Procedure for Detecting Outliers --- p.25 / Chapter 2.3.1 --- General Procedure for Detecting Outliers --- p.25 / Chapter 2.4 --- Methods of Constructing Simultaneous Prediction Intervals --- p.27 / Chapter 2.4.1 --- The Bonferroni Method --- p.28 / Chapter 2.4.2 --- The Exact Method --- p.28 / Chapter 3 --- An Illustrative Example --- p.29 / Chapter 3.1 --- Case A --- p.31 / Chapter 3.2 --- Case B --- p.32 / Chapter 3.3 --- Comparison --- p.33 / Chapter 4 --- Simulation Study --- p.36 / Chapter 4.1 --- Generate AR(1) with an Outlier --- p.36 / Chapter 4.1.1 --- Case A --- p.38 / Chapter 4.1.2 --- Case B --- p.40 / Chapter 4.2 --- Simulation Results I --- p.42 / Chapter 4.3 --- Generate AR(1) with Two Outliers --- p.45 / Chapter 4.4 --- Simulation Results II --- p.46 / Chapter 4.5 --- Concluding Remarks --- p.47 / Bibliography --- p.83

A lot of relevant literature indicates that stock market returns for the non-linear because the stock market is volatility asymmetry. To explore the impact between the stock and macroeconomic variables, it is necessary to analyze by nonlinear model, otherwise they will be a model set of problems. I adopt a threshold autoregressive modle to analyze the relationship between the ETF return on the exchange rate and economic growth. In this study, the ETF return is the threshold variable. First, in order to rearrange the linear test regression (Arrang Regression) with the F-statistic testing whether the nonlinear effect of the grid search to find the residual sum of squares, determine the optimal threshold of backward and thresholds value. To identify the threshold, it is estimated a two-regime model analysis in positive and negative reward, the correlation between exchange rate and ETF returns Spillover effect to explain economic growth for the ETF returns and how it affects, then the data drawn into a grid map, find the number of possible structural transition point, and finally AIC formula to calculate the value of the two -regime with the three-regime model of AIC and the minimum value is the optimal model.

Thesis (M.A.)--University of Notre Dame, 2009. / Thesis directed by Scott E. Maxwell for the Department of Psychology. "November 2009." Includes bibliographical references (leaves 105-107).

published_or_final_version / Statistics and Actuarial Science / Master / Master of Philosophy

This study tests the size effect in the London Stock Exchange, using data for all nonfinancial listed firms from January 1985 to December 1995. The initial tests indicate that average stock returns are negatively related to firm size and that small firm portfolios earn returns in excess of the market risk. Further, the study tests whether the size effect is a proxy for variables such as the Book-to- Market Value and the Borrowing Ratio, as well as the impact of the dividend and the Bid- Ask spread on the return of the extreme size portfolios. The originality of this study is in the application of the Markov Chain Model to testing the Random Walk and Bubbles hypotheses, and the Vector Autoregression (VAR) framework for testing the relationship of macroeconomic variables with size portfolio returns.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, 2009. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 72-75).