The purpose of this study is to test if there is bias in the Venture Capital investment decision-making process towards ecosystems. To guide the research and ensure the fulfillment of the study’s main purpose, we will analyze two specific ecosystems (Stockholm and Silicon Valley). This choice is motivated by their respective importance (Worldwide and Nordics reference) in the global entrepreneurial landscape. The aim is to make an empirical contribution regarding how a herding behavior from Venture Capital investments can drive irrational investment flows towards specific ecosystem such a Silicon Valley, regardless available information towards other ecosystems, in this case, Stockholm. Most researches until today have been focusing on the assessment of startup-focused factors which we believe only picture partly the attractiveness of a startup ecosystem. In our perception, environmental factors in which the ecosystem take place also play an essential role in the attractiveness of an ecosystem to invest in. Is there a behavioral bias in the investment decision processes of Venture Capital regarding startup ecosystems? To assess the presence or absence of a behavioral bias in the investment decision of Venture Capital investors, we are first going to establish an objective attractiveness score using environment-based factors. These factors are going to be combined into six main variables that picture the environmental attractiveness of both ecosystems. In a second time, we are going to submit these six variables to two populations of investors operating in each ecosystem. To do so, we will operate a quantitative study of Stockholm and Silicon Valley-localized private Venture Capital investors towards our different environmental variable. This will enable us to obtain their specific drivers toward these variables and therefore adapt our objective attractiveness scores to obtain weighted attractiveness scores. In a third time, we are going to compare our obtained weighted attractiveness scores per ecosystem with the investment flows effectuated respectively in both ecosystems in 2016. To be able to compare both settings on the same range, we are going to calculate both investment flow data: investment volumes and number of deal closed per capita. The results of this comparison will then bring us either a correlation relation between weighted attractiveness and investment flows per capita for both ecosystems, infirming our theory or a non-correlative relation, which would confirm our theory. Indeed, a non- correlative relation will show that investors do no follow a rational investment behavior based only on the attractiveness of their ecosystem.

01 Abstract Betting on sporting events can be perceived by the general public as a game of chance. In the professional literature, however, betting on football matches is treated in the same way as other financial markets, where in the event of a violation of the theory of efficient markets due to the occurrence of inefficiency, there are opportunities for investors to obtain abnormal returns. The main goal of this work is to create a model capable of predicting the results of football matches on the basis of historical data better than bookmakers are able to do and test the effectiveness of the Czech betting market for football matches of the Czech highest football league. The first part of the thesis contains a more detailed presentation of the theory of efficient markets, a comparison of financial and betting markets and sources of possible inefficiency in betting markets. The second and third parts present data, models and their possible modification to increase the accuracy of estimates. The fourth part describes the results of testing individual models and subsequent simulations of betting strategies. The fifth part contains a conclusion and discussion of the results, including an indication of possible alternatives to follow-up research. The results of simulations of betting strategies confirm...

Submitted by JOSIANE SANTOS DE OLIVEIRA (josianeso) on 2018-04-23T15:13:40Z No. of bitstreams: 1 José Antonio Cescon_.pdf: 2309850 bytes, checksum: aed6465c39716ff0455633261671bd8e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-04-23T15:13:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 José Antonio Cescon_.pdf: 2309850 bytes, checksum: aed6465c39716ff0455633261671bd8e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-01-18 / Nenhuma / O processo de formação da tomada de decisão tem na moderna teoria de finanças o pressuposto de que os investidores agem de forma racional no mercado, são avessos ao risco, buscam a maximização da utilidade esperada, que os mercados são altamente eficientes e que os investidores exploram todas as oportunidades de arbitragem. Se esta premissa estiver correta, como então explicar porque investidores e analistas do mercado financeiro adquirem, mantém e/ou recomendam ações de empresas com patrimônio líquido negativo, já que estas empresas em tese estão prontas para a liquidação. Esta contestação a racionalidade ilimitada dos agentes do mercado financeiro tem sua base nas finanças comportamentais. Partindo destas premissas essa tese buscou compreender como se dá a formação do processo da tomada de decisão de investidores e analistas do mercado financeiro em relação à compra/venda/manutenção e/ou recomendação de ações de empresas com patrimônio líquido negativo listadas na B3 (Brasil, Bolsa e Balcão). Primeiramente montou-se uma carteira de investimentos, cuja composição é somente de empresas que adentraram ao patrimônio líquido negativo para verificar se ocorreram retornos positivos anormais para investimentos em empresas neste tipo de situação. A carteira foi formada com 77 empresas de um total de 208 que apresentaram pelo menos um trimestre de patrimônio líquido negativo no período de análise de retorno da carteira que foi de 1998 à 2016. Comparando o resultado desta carteira com investimentos livre de risco (Poupança e CDI) e a um investimento de risco similar (IBrX50), na análise da carteira buscou-se confirmar se é possível obter retornos positivos anormais em determinado período com investimentos em empresas com patrimônio líquido negativo e se este retorno propiciado é condizente com a relação risco/retorno preconizado pela moderna teoria de finanças. Os resultados encontrados apontam que é possível obter resultados positivos anormais, porém não atendem a relação risco/retorno se comparado a um investimento livre de risco. Estes resultados serviram de base para o desenvolvimento da tese proposta de que a formação do processo da tomada de decisão por parte de investidores e analistas do mercado financeiro trata-se de um processo de decisão parcialmente racional, pois este processo é afetado por aspectos comportamentais. Para confirmar esta tese, foram realizadas entrevistas com investidores (22) e analistas do mercado financeiro (09), que possuíram, possuem, recomendaram, recomendam a compra/venda e/ou manutenção de ações de empresas com patrimônio líquido negativo. As questões semiestruturadas das entrevistas foram suportadas pela moderna teoria de finanças e pelos vieses comportamentais: Contabilidade Mental; Aversão a Perda; Fuga ao Arrependimento; Efeito Disjunção, Efeito Manada, Loteria, Excesso de Confiança, Excesso de Otimismo e Ilusão Monetária. O método utilizado foi a análise de conteúdo, tendo como base as premissas da Hipótese do Mercado Eficiente (HME) e das Finanças Comportamentais (FC). Os resultados encontrados conduziram a três categorias de processos na formação da tomada de decisão. A 1ª categoria “Processo Racional”, atende a premissa da HME, de que tanto o investidor quanto os analistas são racionais. A 2ª categoria “Processo Pseudorracional”, atende parcialmente a premissa da HME, quanto atende parcialmente a premissa das Finanças comportamentais. A 3ª categoria “Processo Comportamental” atende a premissa das Finanças comportamentais. Os resultados demonstram que individualmente nenhum dos investidores ou analistas do mercado financeiro entrevistados podem ser classificados dentro de uma categoria específica, neste sentido não há um processo totalmente Racional, Pseudorracional ou Comportamental. / The process of forming decision-making has in the modern theory of finance the assumption that investors act rationally in the market, are risk-averse, seek to maximize expected utility, that markets are highly efficient, and that investors exploit arbitration opportunities. If this premise is correct, how then explain why investors and financial market analysts acquire, maintain and/or recommend shares of companies with negative equity, since these companies are ready for settlement. This challenge to the unlimited rationality of financial market agents has its basis in behavioral finance. Based on these premises, this thesis sought to understand how the decision-making process of financial market investors and analysts is formed in relation to the purchase/sale/maintenance and/or recommendation of shares of companies with negative equity listed on B3 (Brazil, Stock Exchange and Counter). Firstly, an investment portfolio was set up, whose composition is only of companies that went into negative equity to verify if there were abnormal positive returns for investments in companies in this type of situation. The portfolio was formed by 77 companies out of a total of 208 that had at least one quarter of negative equity in the period of analysis of portfolio returns that was from 1998 to 2016. Comparing the result of this portfolio with risk-free investments (Savings account and CDI) and a similar risk investment (IBrX50), the analysis of the portfolio sought to confirm if it is possible to obtain abnormal positive returns in a given period with investments in companies with negative equity and if this return provided is consistent with the risk ratio / return advocated by the modern theory of finance. The results show that it is possible to obtain abnormal positive results, but they do not meet the risk/return relationship when compared to a risk-free investment. These results served as a basis for the development of the proposed thesis that the formation of the decision-making process by financial market investors and analysts is a partially rational decision process because this process is affected by behavioral aspects. To confirm this thesis, interviews were conducted with investors (22) and financial market analysts (09), who owned, have, recommend, the purchase/sale and/or maintenance of shares of companies with negative equity. The questions of these interviews were supported by the behavioral biases: Mental Accounting; Loss Aversion; Fear to Repentance; Disjunction Effect, Herd Effect, Lottery, Excess of Confidence, Excess of Optimism and Monetary Illusion. The method used was content analysis, based on the assumptions of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (HME) and Behavioral Finance. The results found led to three categories of process in the formation of decision making. The 1st category "Rational Process", meets the HME premise that both the investor and the analysts are rational. The second category "Pseudo-rational Process", partially meets the premise of HME, as it partially meets the premise of behavioral finance. The 3rd category "Behavioral Process" meets the premise of Behavioral Finance. The results demonstrate that individually none of the investors or financial market analysts interviewed can be classified within a specific category, in this sense there is not a totally Rational, Pseudo-rational or Behavioral process.