Submitted by Filipe dos Santos (fsantos@pucsp.br) on 2016-09-13T14:20:57Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Rafael Donisete Bombonati.pdf: 2215985 bytes, checksum: f9da8c69e1031dd6f95f468e1aa07462 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-09-13T14:20:58Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Rafael Donisete Bombonati.pdf: 2215985 bytes, checksum: f9da8c69e1031dd6f95f468e1aa07462 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-04-19 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / The analysis of the theory of business cycles in its global scope had great prominence in the economic science during the second half of the nineteenth century to the middle of the 1929 US crisis. The resumption of this research agenda would only years later, already in the 1970s with the publication of works that allied with the analysis of these fluctuations with the use of econometric tools support. Domestically, the literature devoted to analysis of the Brazilian cycles also have some division within the referred economic thought, with a predominance of authors who used these analyzes in the period before the 1980s, later became effective more related analyzes theories of the economic growth. Already the main elements highlighted in this literature as responsible for the fluctuations observed in the country pointed to the economic development plans, the impact of external shocks and as a result of the stabilization plans. In this sense and taking into account a crisis scenario already in 2015, the domestic industry was eventually raised to alternative to reversing the depressive process observed, even with since the 1980s, a process of disintegration from the debt crisis. Thus the purpose of this study focuses precisely to assess how the industry's behavior, specifically the industrial cycle, impacts the business cycle contraction considering a scenario of industrial activity, classified by many authors as a negative deindustrialization. Thus it structured the argument from an analysis of cycles in its general conceptions and according to some classic authors, later moving to the analysis of Brazilian cycles. Also presented the history of the domestic industry over time as well as its importance from the stylized facts according to the consulted theories. We also used econometric models for this importance could be measured. The results indicate that the industry is losing its ability to influence the national product over time, mainly from the 1980s, which does not mean, however, that it should not be encouraged, since there seems to be some consensus in the literature on its ability to promote growth and economic development through structural change and technological progress. The question that arises, therefore, is which sectors within the industry should be encouraged / A análise da teoria dos ciclos econômicos em seu âmbito global teve grande destaque dentro da ciência econômica durante a segunda metade do século XIX até meados da crise de 1929 nos EUA. A retomada dessa agenda de pesquisa só viria anos mais tarde, já na década de 1970, com a publicação de obras que aliavam a análise dessas flutuações com a utilização de instrumentos econométricos de apoio. No cenário interno, a literatura dedicada a análise dos ciclos brasileiros igualmente apresentam certa divisão dentro do pensamento econômico consultado, apresentando uma predominância de autores que se utilizavam dessas análises no período anterior a década de 1980, passando posteriormente a vigorar análises mais relacionadas as teorias do crescimento econômico. Já os principais elementos destacados nessa literatura como responsáveis pelas flutuações observadas no país apontavam para os planos de desenvolvimento econômico, pela influência dos choques externos e em decorrência dos planos de estabilização. Nesse sentido e levando em consideração um cenário de crise já em 2015, a indústria nacional acabou sendo alçada a alternativa para reversão do processo depressivo observado, mesmo apresentando desde a década de 1980, um processo de desestruturação a partir da crise da dívida. Sendo assim o propósito desse estudo se concentra justamente em avaliar o quanto o comportamento da indústria, mais especificamente o ciclo industrial, impacta o ciclo econômico considerando um cenário de contração da atividade industrial, classificada por muitos autores como sendo uma desindustrialização negativa. Sendo assim estruturou-se a argumentação a partir de uma análise dos ciclos em suas concepções gerais e segundo alguns autores clássicos, passando posteriormente para a análise dos ciclos brasileiros. Também se apresentou o histórico da indústria nacional ao longo do tempo, bem como a sua importância a partir dos fatos estilizados segundo as teorias consultadas. Utilizou-se também de modelos econométricos para que essa importância pudesse ser mensurada. Os resultados encontrados indicam que a indústria vem perdendo sua capacidade de influenciar o produto nacional ao longo do tempo, principalmente a partir da década de 1980, o que não significa dizer, por outro lado, que a mesma não deva ser incentivada, uma vez que parece existir certo consenso dentro da literatura sobre a sua capacidade de promover o crescimento e o desenvolvimento econômico, através da mudança estrutural e do progresso tecnológico. A questão que se coloca, portanto, é quais setores dentro da indústria deveriam ser estimulados

Thesis deals with system of national accounts providing information for economic policy institutions. Relation of the system to economic theory is examined with focus on disposable income. We try to answer the question if SNA follows theory originally used for construction the system or if SNA constitutes separated stream of economic theory. Then, crucial concepts of GDP calculation as definition of economic activity, value added concept or concept of derived demand are discussed. Key problem is the relation of GDP to business cycle anylsis, thus, we use alternative indicator of economic activity for analysis of Czech economy.

The goal of this diploma thesis is analysis impacts of business cycle on automotive industry in the Czech Republic in 2006-2011 with exclusive focusing on passenger cars. Impacts of business cycle on automotive industry in the Czech Republic are researched on domestic demand development for new passenger cars and on production, domestic sales and export of the three biggest czech automobile producers. Impacts of business cycle on domestic demand for new passenger cars are analyzed with helping numbers of first registrations in the concrete car segments. Development of czech demand for new cars and automotive production in 2006-2011 is compared to demand and passenger cars production development in Germany, Japan and in the USA. The analysis shows that czech demand for new cars was influenced by economic situation in the Czech Republic in 2006-2011. Influence of czech business cycle on automotive production in the Czech Republic was much smaller than influence of business cycle on czech demand for new passenger cars in 2006-2011. This fact is due to significant pro-export orientation of czech automotive production.

Submitted by Silvana Teresinha Dornelles Studzinski (sstudzinski) on 2016-10-06T15:22:53Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Augusto Andreis_.pdf: 1014563 bytes, checksum: 6dd9c7340de16a01a8e4c95110d7eff8 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-10-06T15:22:53Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Augusto Andreis_.pdf: 1014563 bytes, checksum: 6dd9c7340de16a01a8e4c95110d7eff8 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-07-21 / CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / O objetivo principal desta dissertação foi analisar o comportamento da política fiscal no período posterior a implementação do Plano Real. Sabendo que as finanças públicas são afetadas diretamente pelo ciclo econômico, a análise foi feita através da metodologia do balanço orçamentário estrutural, que tem como premissa básica a eliminação do componente cíclico das receitas e despesas. Assim, optou-se por computar o balanço orçamentário estrutural pela ótica da OCDE e do FMI, sendo que, neste último, utilizou-se dois métodos distintos para obter a elasticidade receita-produto. Os resultados indicam que, entre 1998 e 2015, pode-se dividir a condução da política fiscal em três distintos períodos. O primeiro deles, que compreende o período 1998-2003, a política fiscal teve como objetivo a geração de superávits primários, ou seja, este período pode ser considerado um momento de ajuste fiscal, haja vista que ocorreram recorrentes contrações fiscais, todavia, esta orientação da política fiscal fez com que esta tenha apresentado um comportamento pró-cíclico. Já o segundo período, que vai de 2004 a 2011, pode ser considerado um período onde a política fiscal foi utilizada como instrumento de suavização dos movimentos ondulares da economia, ou seja, pode-se afirmar que a política fiscal teve um comportamento anticíclico. E, por fim, o terceiro período, que compreende o momento 2012-2015, onde houve recorrentes expansões fiscais, pode ser considerado um momento onde a política fiscal foi utilizada com o intuito de expandir a demanda agregada, o que acabou por fazer com que seu comportamento fosse pró-cíclico. É importante destacar que o ajuste fiscal ocorrido entre 1998 e 2003, que reduziu consideravelmente a dívida pública federal, pode ser um dos fatores que permitiu utilizar a política fiscal como instrumento anticíclico no período da crise do subprime. Neste sentido, se coloca em perspectiva a importância de um novo ajuste fiscal para fazer frente a possíveis crises futuras. Além disso, o período de ajuste fiscal no Brasil deveria ter ocorrido entre 2012 e 2014, momento onde o PIB cresceu acima de sua tendência de longo prazo, mas esse momento foi perdido. Desta forma, a política fiscal expansionista contribuiu para o país crescer acima de sua tendência e também para a piora das finanças públicas durante alguns anos. A proposta de ajuste fiscal pretendido em 2016 se torna muito mais custosa do que seria caso feito anteriormente. Ademais, a política fiscal brasileira apresenta poucas semelhanças com os países vizinhos e nenhum deles apresentou expansão fiscal semelhante a do Brasil, entre os anos de 2012 e 2015. Já ao comparar-se o comportamento fiscal brasileiro com os países pertencentes ao BRICS, observou-se novamente poucas semelhanças. / The main objective of this dissertation was to analyze the fiscal policy’s behavior in post Plano Real implementation period. Knowing that public finances are directly affected by the economic cycle, the analysis were made through the methodology of structural budget balance, which has as its basic premise the cyclically component of revenue and expenditure elimination. That being, it has been chosen to compute the structural budget balance by the optic of OECD and IMF, being that, in the last case, it has been utilized two distinct methods to obtain elasticity of revenue with respect to output. The results indicate that, between 1998 and 2015, the fiscal policy conduction can be divided into three distinct periods. The first of them, which comprehends the period 1998-2003, the fiscal policy had as objective to generate primary balance, that is, this period can be considered a moment of fiscal adjust, considering that there has been recurrent fiscal contractions, however, this fiscal policy orientation has made that to submit a procyclical behavior towards it self. The second period, which comprehends the 2004 to 2011 period, can be considered where the fiscal policy has been utilized as a tool for smoothing the wavy movements of economy, that is, it can be affirmed that the fiscal policy had an countercyclical behavior. And finally, the third period, which comprehends the period between 2012 to 2015, where has been recurrent fiscal expansions, and can be considered a moment when the fiscal policy has been used to expand the aggregate demand, what ended up to making its behavior to be procyclical. It is important to point out that the fiscal adjustment that occurred between 1998 and 2003, which has reduced the federal public debt considerably, can be one of the factors that allowed utilizing fiscal policy as an anticyclic tool during the subprime crisis. In that way, the importance of a new fiscal adjustment to confront possible future crisis is put in perspective. Besides that, the fiscal adjustment period in Brazil should had occurred between 2012 and 2014, a moment where the GDP grown above its long term tendency, but the moment was lost. In that way, the importance of a new fiscal adjustment to confront possible future crisis is put in perspective. Besides that, the fiscal adjustment period in Brazil should had occurred between 2012 and 2014, a moment where the GDP grown above its long term tendency, but the moment was lost. In that manner, expansionist fiscal policy has contributed towards the country’s growth above its trend and also to the worsen of public finances for a few years. The fiscal adjustment proposal pretended in 2016 becomes too expensive than if it was done before. Furthermore, the brazilian fiscal policy presents too little similarities with its neighbour countries and none of them presented fiscal expansion similar to Brazil’s between the years of 2012 and 2015. Although, comparing Brazil’s fiscal behavior with countries in BRICS, too liitle similarities are found once again.

The environmental uncertainty of federal politics and acquisition outsourcing in competitive markets requires an adaptive decision-analysis structure. Practitioners oriented toward exclusively static methods face severe challenges in understanding qualitative aspects of organizational governance. The purpose of this grounded theory study was to examine and understand behavioral relationship attributes within intuitive, choice, judgment, or preference decision-making processes. The problem addressed in this study was the detrimental effects of organizational citizenship behavior (OCB), compulsory citizenship behavior (CCB), and social exchange theory (SET) on the acquisition management relationship The OCB, CCB, SET dictates that sound business development, relationship acumen, emotional intelligence and perceptiveness transcend pure numerical quantification. Exhibition of relationship-based attributes influence and drive long-term contractual relationships and the sustainability of business organizations. The data collected included historical data and survey responses. Approximately 34,000 acquisition professionals comprised the population-sampling frame. The study sample consisted of 378 survey responses that yielded 294 qualifying respondents with 94 disqualifications that produced a 78% response rate. The Carnegie-Mellon behavioral survey guidelines underpinned questionnaire construction and affirmation of themes. Strauss and Corbin grounded theory and theme generation addressed behavioral decision making under the additive model that inform the development of an organizational social operations and business framework that accounts for intuitive judgment. The study may contribute to positive social change by orienting managers toward behavioral decision making, ensuring responsiveness to the public and federal governance

<p><strong>Syfte: </strong>Syftet med denna undersökning är att studera råvaruprisets samt aktiemarknadens prestationer i form av procentuell avkastning under olika konjunkturlägen från år 1969 och fram till 2009. Samt att studera råvarumarknadens reaktion vid börsfall. Marknaderna ställs dessutom i relation till varandra. Detta görs genom tre delsyften: Hur presterar råvaror i relation till aktiemarknaden i hög- respektive lågkonjunktur? Ökar råvarupriset och aktiemarknaden i samma konjunkturlägen? Hur har råvarumarknaden till skillnad från aktiemarknaden reagerat vid större börsfall?</p><p><strong>Metod: </strong>Undersökningen är kvantitativ, deduktiv samt utgår från primärdata ansamlad via vedertagna källor och databaser. För att uppfylla syftet innefattar denna undersökning två olika metoder. Metod 1behandlar avkastning i olika konjunkturlägen och Metod 2 består av en eventstudie av råvaruprisernas reaktioner vid tidigare börsfall.</p><p><strong>Teori: </strong>Undersökningen bygger delvis på hypotesen om effektiva marknader och innefattar tidigare forskning om faktorer som påverkar råvarupriset och aktiemarknaden.</p><p><strong>Empiri: </strong>Mellan åren 1969 – 2009 konstaterades fyra olika konjunkturlägen med 5 högkonjunkturslägen, 6 lågkonjunkturslägen, 3 övergångsår mot högkonjunktur, 5 övergångsår mot lågkonjunktur. Aktiemarknadens totala avkastning för hela perioden var 973,7 %, majs hade 250,9 %, vete 300 %, olja 169 %, guld 495,8 % och koppar 555,2 %. Sammanslaget för samtliga råvaror och börsfall var det endast olja som fick ett svagt positivt CAAR, resterande fick ett negativt CAAR där aktiemarknaden hade -1,02762, olja 0,01325, guld -0,05511, koppar -0,10297, vete -0,1812 samt majs - 0,1859.</p><p><strong>Analys/Slutsats</strong></p><ul><li>I regel har både råvarornas och aktiemarknadens avkastning varit bättre under högkonjunktur än lågkonjunktur, däremot har guld en negativ korrelation mot aktiemarknaden vilket resulterar i att råvarans pris minskar när aktiemarknaden går bra och ökar när aktiemarknaden går dåligt. </li><li>Det finns inget statistiskt säkerställt samband utifrån denna undersökning som tyder på att råvarupriset och aktiemarknaden följer varandra genom konjunkturlägen.</li><li>Råvarornas CAAR är nästintill obefintliga i en antingen negativ eller positiv riktning. Därmed är reaktionerna på börsfallen nästan obefintliga och med ett <em>r</em> på – 0,171 och en tillförlitlighetsnivå på 20-30 % går det inte att statistiskt säkerställa ett samband mellan reaktionerna hos råvarorna och börsfallet.</li></ul> / <p><strong>Purpose: </strong>The aim with this survey is to examine and compare the commodity price and the stock market performance in terms of percentage yield during different business cycles from 1969 to 2009. And then examine the reaction on the commodity price in timer of a major downturn. This will be done by answering a three part purpose: How do commodities and the stock market perform during different business cycles? Do both commodities and the stock market show positive yield during the same business cycle? How do commodities react to a major downturn in the stock market?</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The study is quantitative, deductive, and is based on raw data accumulated from conventional sources and databases. To fulfill the purpose this study includes two different methods. Method 1examine the yield in different business situations and Method 2 consists of an event study of the commodity stock market reactions to previous downturns in the stock market.</p><p><strong>Theoretical: </strong>This study is partly based on the hypothesis of efficient markets and includes previous research on factors affecting commodity prices and stock markets.</p><p><strong>Empirical: </strong>Between the years 1969 - 2009 four different cyclical positions was found, 5 boom positions, 6 recessions’ positions, 3 transition years towards an economic boom, 5 transition years towards recession. The stock market's total returns for the entire period was 973.7%, 250.9% had corn, wheat 300%, 169% oil, gold and copper 495.8% 555.2%. Aggregated for all commodities and stock market, oil was the only object that had a slightly positive CAAR, the others had a negative CAAR where the stock market had, -1.02762, oil 0.01325, gold -0.05511, copper -0.10297, wheat -0 , 1812, and corn - 0.1859.</p><p><strong>Conclusion</strong></p><ul><li>In general, both commodities and stock market returns have been better than during the boom then times of recession, however, gold has a negative correlation to equity markets, which results in a decreases commodity price as the stock market is doing well and increasing when the stock market goes bad. </li><li>There is no statistically significant correlation from this study that suggests that commodity prices and stock markets follow each other through the business cycle.</li><li>Commodities CAAR is virtually nonexistent in either a positive or negative direction. Thus, the reactions to the stock market is almost nonexistent, and with an <em>r</em> of - 0.171 and a confidence level of 20-30% the link between the reactions of commodities and stock markets cannot be statistically ensure. </li></ul>

Syfte: Syftet med denna undersökning är att studera råvaruprisets samt aktiemarknadens prestationer i form av procentuell avkastning under olika konjunkturlägen från år 1969 och fram till 2009. Samt att studera råvarumarknadens reaktion vid börsfall. Marknaderna ställs dessutom i relation till varandra. Detta görs genom tre delsyften: Hur presterar råvaror i relation till aktiemarknaden i hög- respektive lågkonjunktur? Ökar råvarupriset och aktiemarknaden i samma konjunkturlägen? Hur har råvarumarknaden till skillnad från aktiemarknaden reagerat vid större börsfall? Metod: Undersökningen är kvantitativ, deduktiv samt utgår från primärdata ansamlad via vedertagna källor och databaser. För att uppfylla syftet innefattar denna undersökning två olika metoder. Metod 1behandlar avkastning i olika konjunkturlägen och Metod 2 består av en eventstudie av råvaruprisernas reaktioner vid tidigare börsfall. Teori: Undersökningen bygger delvis på hypotesen om effektiva marknader och innefattar tidigare forskning om faktorer som påverkar råvarupriset och aktiemarknaden. Empiri: Mellan åren 1969 – 2009 konstaterades fyra olika konjunkturlägen med 5 högkonjunkturslägen, 6 lågkonjunkturslägen, 3 övergångsår mot högkonjunktur, 5 övergångsår mot lågkonjunktur. Aktiemarknadens totala avkastning för hela perioden var 973,7 %, majs hade 250,9 %, vete 300 %, olja 169 %, guld 495,8 % och koppar 555,2 %. Sammanslaget för samtliga råvaror och börsfall var det endast olja som fick ett svagt positivt CAAR, resterande fick ett negativt CAAR där aktiemarknaden hade -1,02762, olja 0,01325, guld -0,05511, koppar -0,10297, vete -0,1812 samt majs - 0,1859. Analys/Slutsats I regel har både råvarornas och aktiemarknadens avkastning varit bättre under högkonjunktur än lågkonjunktur, däremot har guld en negativ korrelation mot aktiemarknaden vilket resulterar i att råvarans pris minskar när aktiemarknaden går bra och ökar när aktiemarknaden går dåligt. Det finns inget statistiskt säkerställt samband utifrån denna undersökning som tyder på att råvarupriset och aktiemarknaden följer varandra genom konjunkturlägen. Råvarornas CAAR är nästintill obefintliga i en antingen negativ eller positiv riktning. Därmed är reaktionerna på börsfallen nästan obefintliga och med ett r på – 0,171 och en tillförlitlighetsnivå på 20-30 % går det inte att statistiskt säkerställa ett samband mellan reaktionerna hos råvarorna och börsfallet. / Purpose: The aim with this survey is to examine and compare the commodity price and the stock market performance in terms of percentage yield during different business cycles from 1969 to 2009. And then examine the reaction on the commodity price in timer of a major downturn. This will be done by answering a three part purpose: How do commodities and the stock market perform during different business cycles? Do both commodities and the stock market show positive yield during the same business cycle? How do commodities react to a major downturn in the stock market? Methods: The study is quantitative, deductive, and is based on raw data accumulated from conventional sources and databases. To fulfill the purpose this study includes two different methods. Method 1examine the yield in different business situations and Method 2 consists of an event study of the commodity stock market reactions to previous downturns in the stock market. Theoretical: This study is partly based on the hypothesis of efficient markets and includes previous research on factors affecting commodity prices and stock markets. Empirical: Between the years 1969 - 2009 four different cyclical positions was found, 5 boom positions, 6 recessions’ positions, 3 transition years towards an economic boom, 5 transition years towards recession. The stock market's total returns for the entire period was 973.7%, 250.9% had corn, wheat 300%, 169% oil, gold and copper 495.8% 555.2%. Aggregated for all commodities and stock market, oil was the only object that had a slightly positive CAAR, the others had a negative CAAR where the stock market had, -1.02762, oil 0.01325, gold -0.05511, copper -0.10297, wheat -0 , 1812, and corn - 0.1859. Conclusion In general, both commodities and stock market returns have been better than during the boom then times of recession, however, gold has a negative correlation to equity markets, which results in a decreases commodity price as the stock market is doing well and increasing when the stock market goes bad. There is no statistically significant correlation from this study that suggests that commodity prices and stock markets follow each other through the business cycle. Commodities CAAR is virtually nonexistent in either a positive or negative direction. Thus, the reactions to the stock market is almost nonexistent, and with an r of - 0.171 and a confidence level of 20-30% the link between the reactions of commodities and stock markets cannot be statistically ensure.

In this thesis, I take a theoretical dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) approach to investigate optimal aggregate dividend policy. I make the following contribution: 1. I extend the standard DSGE model to incorporate a residual dividend policy, external financing and default and find that simulated optimal aggregate payouts are much more volatile than the observed data when other variables are close to the values observed in the data. 2. I examine the sensitivity of optimal aggregate dividend policy to the level of the representative agent's habit motive. My results show that, when the habit motive gets stronger, the volatility of optimal aggregate payouts increases while the volatility of aggregate consumption decreases. This is consistent with the hypothesis that investors use cash payouts from well diversified portfolios to help smooth consumption. 3. I demonstrate that the variability of optimal aggregate payouts is sensitive to capital adjustment costs. My simulated results show that costly frictions from changing the capital base of the firm cause optimal aggregate dividends and real investments to be smooth and share prices to be volatile. This finding is consistent with prior empirical observations. 4. I run simulations that support the hypothesis that optimal aggregate dividend policy is similar when the representative firm is risk averse to when it has capital adjustment costs. In both cases, optimal aggregate dividends volatility is very low. 5. In all calibrated DSGE models, apart from case 4, optimal aggregate payouts are found to be countercyclical. This supports the hypothesis that corporations prefer to hold more free cash flows for potential investment opportunities instead of paying dividends when the economy is booming, but is inconsistent with observed data. Keywords: Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE), real business cycle, utility function, habits, dividends.

This paper examines the correlation between credit intermediated by financial systems and economic growth in developing countries. More specifically we have studied whether well-functioning financial markets result in economic growth. We base our study on data from 53 low- and lower-middle income countries in the period 2004-2011. By comparing the two different economic theories, Schumpeter’s growth theory and Austrian business cycle theory, we have analysed our results from two different perspectives. The results from this study show an insignificant relationship between financial systems and economic growth, contradicting much of the theory and results from previous studies that have been reviewed. Other variables outside of the financial system in this study, such as economic freedom and corruption, could be a reason for the non-existent correlation between financial development and economic growth in this study.

The dissertation is mainly made up of three empirical theses on the Optimum Currency Area theory, business cycle synchronization, and intra-industry trade. The second chapter conducts an empirical test into the theory of Optimum Currency Area. I investigate the feasibility of creating a currency union in East Asia by examining the dominance and symmetry of macroeconomic shocks. Relying on a series of structural Vector Autoregressive models with long-run and block exogeneity restrictions, I identify a variety of macroeconomic disturbances in eleven East Asian economies. To examine the nature of the disturbances, I look into the forecast error variance decomposition, correlation of disturbances, size of shocks, and speed of adjustments. Based on both statistical analysis and economic comparison, it is found that two groups of economies are subject to dominant and symmetrical domestic supply shocks, and that the two groups respond quickly to moderate-sized shocks. Therefore, it is economically feasible for the two groups of economies to foster common currency zones. The third chapter investigates the different effects of intra- and inter-industry trade on business cycle synchronization, controlling for financial market linkage and monetary policy making. The chapter is the first attempt to use intra- and inter-industry trade simultaneously in Instrument Variable estimations. The evidence in my paper is supportive that intra-industry trade increases business cycle synchronization, while inter-industry trade brings about divergence of cycles. The findings imply that country pairs with higher intra-industry trade intensity are more likely to experience synchronized business cycles and are more feasible to join a monetary union. My results also show that financial integration and monetary policy coordination provide no explanation for synchronization when industry-level trade are accounted for. The fourth chapter extends the third chapter and explores how the characteristics of global trade network influence intra-industry trade. Borrowing the concept of structural equivalence, the similarity of two countries’ aggregate trade relations with other countries, from the social network analysis, this study incorporates this measure of trade network to the augmented gravity model of intra-industry trade. I build up two fixed effects models to analyze intra-industry trade in the raw material and final product sectors among 182 countries from 1962 through 2000. Structural equivalence promotes intra-industry trade flows in the final product sector, but it does not influence intra-industry trade in the crude material sector. Moreover, structural equivalence has been increasingly important in boosting intra-industry trade over time. / Graduate / 0508