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Texte remanié de: Dissertation Ph. D.--Cambridge University. / Bibliogr. p. 205-225.

Thesis (M.A.)--University of Missouri-Columbia, 2007. / The entire dissertation/thesis text is included in the research.pdf file; the official abstract appears in the short.pdf file (which also appears in the research.pdf); a non-technical general description, or public abstract, appears in the public.pdf file. Title from title screen of research.pdf file (viewed on January 3, 2008) Includes bibliographical references.

Evidence is accumulating that climate change is having a significant effect on a wide range of organisms spanning the full range of biodiversity found on this planet. This study investigates the ecological role of climate change, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and habitat change on British insect populations. Despite the NAO having a considerable effect on British weather, the role of the NAO on British insects has not previously been studied in great detail. The World's two best entomological time series datasets were used – the United Kingdom Butterfly Monitoring Scheme (UKBMS) and the Rothamsted Insect Survey of aphids – both surveys with very large sample sizes and high quality data. Summary of main findings: 1. Warm weather associated with a positive NAO index caused the spring migration of the green spruce aphid (Elatobium abietinum), a pest species of spruce trees (Picea) to start earlier, continue for longer and contain more aphids. An upward trend in the NAO index during the period 1966-2006 is associated with an increasing population size of E. abietinum. 2. The NAO does not affect the overall UK butterfly population size. However, the abundance of bivoltine butterfly species, which have a longer flight season, were more likely to respond positively to the NAO compared to univoltine species, which show little or a negative response. 3. A positive winter NAO index was associated with warmer weather and earlier butterfly flight dates. For bivoltine (two generations in a year) species, the NAO affects the phenology of the first generation, and then the timing of the second generation is indirectly controlled by the timing of the first generation. The NAO influences the timing of the butterfly flight seasons more strongly than it influences population size. 4. Butterfly data from Monks Wood National Nature Reserve in Cambridgeshire showed that the NAO does not affect the abundance of the whole butterfly community, but it does affect the population size of some species. The NAO does not affect butterfly diversity, but there were decreases in butterfly diversity and number of species with time. 5. The total number of butterflies counted at Monks Wood was constant for most of the time series. However, the population size of the ringlet (Aphantopus hyperantus) increased from very low numbers to more than half the total number of butterflies counted each year. Therefore the total population size of all the other species has decreased considerably. 6. The NAO was more important than climate change in determining the flight phenology of the meadow brown butterfly (Maniola jurtina) at Monks Wood. In conclusion, the NAO affects the abundance of some species of British butterfly, and an aphid species, with a stronger effect on the timing of flight rather than abundance. There was evidence for a long-term decrease in the biodiversity of butterflies at Monks Wood and this decrease is likely to continue.

Social care and health services for older people in Cambridgeshire have been integrated since April 2004. This study examines the effect of the integration programme on service users. Previous research into health and social care integrations predominantly centre on process issues and pay much less attention to outcomes. No study has evaluated the impact of fully-integrated care services for the whole user group of older people. Theory-led programmatic approach was used in this study. Multi-method data collection and analysis were employed to uncover and examine the causal links, the contextual conditions, the implementation process, causal mechanisms, and intended and achieved outcomes of the integration programme. This study reveals an improvement in the physical functioning of one in three occupational equipment users; a rise in the level of satisfaction of 85% of occupational health and 82% of physiotherapy users; older people with complex problems and high-level needs were able to be helped to live at home; and waiting time for both assessment and for services within two weeks and four weeks were below the national achievement and the ministerial targets. It also reveals a lack of change outcomes in social care, and service users’ low level of satisfaction with social care services, which appear to be associated with the privatisation of long-term social care and the predominant aim in social work of achieving maintenance and prevention outcomes. The integration programme’s goals—unifying the care system, easier and simpler access to services and a single and quick assessment—were not fully reached, mainly because of users’ low awareness of the integration, incompatible ICT systems and lack of funding. This study contributes to knowledge on how the total integration in Cambridgeshire has benefited users and how theory-led programmatic approach can be used in this area and in the study of this kind of complex social programme.