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An Improved Meta-analysis for Analyzing Cylindrical-type Time Series Data with Applications to Forecasting Problem in Environmental StudyWang, Shuo 27 April 2015 (has links)
This thesis provides a case study on how the wind direction plays an important role in the amount of rainfall, in the village of Somi$acute{o}$. The primary goal is to illustrate how a meta-analysis, together with circular data analytic methods, helps in analyzing certain environmental issues. The existing GLS meta-analysis combines the merits of usual meta-analysis that yields a better precision and also accounts for covariance among coefficients. But, it is quite limited since information about the covariance among coefficients is not utilized. Hence, in my proposed meta-analysis, I take the correlations between adjacent studies into account when employing the GLS meta-analysis. Besides, I also fit a time series linear-circular regression as a comparable model. By comparing the confidence intervals of parameter estimates, covariance matrix, AIC, BIC and p-values, I discuss an improvement on the GLS meta analysis model in its application to forecasting problem in Environmental study.
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Improving Music Mood Annotation Using Polygonal Circular RegressionDufour, Isabelle 31 August 2015 (has links)
Music mood recognition by machine continues to attract attention from both academia and industry. This thesis explores the hypothesis that the music emotion problem is circular, and is a primary step in determining the efficacy of circular regression as a machine learning method for automatic music mood recognition. This hypothesis is tested through experiments conducted using instances of the two commonly accepted models of affect used in machine learning (categorical and two-dimensional), as well as on an original circular model proposed by the author. Polygonal approximations of circular regression are proposed as a practical way to investigate whether the circularity of the annotations can be exploited. An original dataset assembled and annotated for the models is also presented. Next, the architecture and implementation choices of all three models are given, with an emphasis on the new polygonal approximations of circular regression. Experiments with different polygons demonstrate consistent and in some cases significant improvements over the categorical model on a dataset containing ambiguous extracts (ones for which the human annotators did not fully agree upon). Through a comprehensive analysis of the results, errors and inconsistencies observed, evidence is provided that mood recognition can be improved if approached as a circular problem. Finally, a proposed multi-tagging strategy based on the circular predictions is put forward as a pragmatic method to automatically annotate music based on the circular model. / Graduate / 0984 / 0800 / 0413 / zazz101@hotmail.com
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Development of photonic instruments for measurement of aerosol optical properties / Développement des instruments photoniques pour les mesures des propriétés optiques des aérosolsWang, Gaoxuan 29 January 2018 (has links)
À cause de leur diffusion et de leur absorption des radiations solaires, les aérosols atmosphériques jouent un rôle important dans l'évolution du climat terrestre. Les techniques de mesure actuelles apportent certes, des connaissances, sur le forçage radiatif mais les résultats possèdent généralement de larges incertitudes, souvent du même ordre de grandeur que la valeur elle-même. Ces incertitudes sont causées par le manque de précision sur les données liées aux propriétés optiques estimées de ces aérosols (comme l'absorption, la diffusion ou l'extinction). Elles découlent principalement des techniques de mesures actuelles : à l'effet de chargement des filtres (lors de mesures classiques par filtres), aux mesures limitées par l'étendue spectrale des instruments, aux conditions d'échantillonnage différents lors de mesures séparées, etc. Dans ce travail de thèse, j'ai développé puis testé des instruments optiques et électroniques dans le but d'augmenter la précision des mesures des coefficients d'extinction et d'absorption des aérosols. (1) Deux spectrophones PhotAccoustique (PA) sont développés afin d'améliorer les mesures d'absorption des aérosols grâce à des mesures directes et sans filtres. Une première génération utilisant un rayonnement à 444 nm permet de réduire les incertitudes de mesure de 20-30% (obtenue par la technique d'échantillonnage par filtres) à 7,4% et 4,6% pour la détermination des coefficients d'absorption massique du carbone suie et de cendres volcaniques, respectivement. Transformé en spectrophone PA à multi-longueurs d'onde opérant conjointement à 444,532 et 660 nm, il permet alors de caractériser la dépendance spectrale du Coefficient d'Absorption d'Ångström (CAA). Les valeurs du CAA du carbone suie sont en accord avec les résultats publiés. Celles obtenues lors de l'analyse de deux échantillons de cendres volcaniques résultant de l'éruption du Eyjafjallajökull sont similaires au CAA du carbone brun,prouvent la présence d'importantes quantités d'éléments organiques. (2) Un extinctiomètre, basé sur le principe de la spectroscopie d'absorption en cavité à source large bande et incohérente (IBBCEAS), est ensuite développé afin de suivre l'évolution des propriétés optiques d'Aérosols Organiques Secondaires (AOS) produits par la photolyse du 2-nitrophénol dans une chambre de simulation atmosphérique de l'University College de Cork (Irlande). Leurs coefficients d'extinction et d'absorption sont suivis par cet extinctiomètre et un spectrophone PA durant tout le processus de production. Les évolutions des propriétés optiques des AOS confirment l'effet du vieillissement atmosphérique. (3) Une nouvelle architecture de détection synchrone est développé afin de rendre notre prototype plus léger, plus compact, mieux adapté aux applications in situ et plus particulièrement aux drones, techniques émergentes qui permettent de caractériser le profil vertical des aérosols dans l'atmosphère. Cette détection synchrone innovante, évaluée lors de la mesure de la concentration de NO₂ ambiant (niveau de concentration de quelques ppbv) possède une précision et une reproductibilité de mesures comparable à la détection synchrone SR830, commercialisée par la société Stanford Research Inc. L'évaluation précise de l'impact climatique des aérosols nécessite une quantification exacte et non biaisée de leurs propriétés optiques. À ce jour, elle reste un défi majeur dans la recherche sur les sciences de l'atmosphère et du changement climatique. Ainsi, des informations sur la taille des particules (liée à l'absorption sélective en longueur d'onde) nécessitent des mesures étendues sur de larges régions spectrales du rayonnement solaire principale. Le développement d'un albédomète large bande à haute précision, dédié à la mesure simultanée des coefficients d'extinction et d'absorption des aérosols est en cours. / Atmospheric aerosols are known to play an important role in earth climate by scattering and absorbing solar radiation. However, the aerosol radiative forcing effect is still known with large uncertainties (almost equal to the magnitude of the aerosol radiative forcing). The uncertainties are mainly caused by inaccurate estimates of aerosol optical properties (such as its absorption, scattering and extinction coefficients) using the currently available measurement techniques, with result in filter loading effect in classic filter technique, the uncertainty due to different sampling conditions for separate measurements of aerosol optical properties in combination of different techniques or due to the measurements at limited spectral wavelength ranges. My PhD work was carried out on the developments and applications of optical and electronic instruments for accurate measurements of aerosol extinction and absorption coefficient : (1) Photoacoustic spectrophones were developed for filter-free direct measurements of aerosol absorption with high accuracy. Measurements uncertainties down to about 7.4% and 4.6% (compared to about 20-30% in filter-based measurements) were achieved for the determination of mass absorption coefficients of black carbon and volcanic ash samples, respectively, using a single-wavelength PA spectrophone operating at 444 nm. A 3-wavelength PA spectrophone operating at 444,532 and 660 nm was developed and deployed for characterizing wavelength-dependent optical properties of aerosol absorption Ångström coefficient (AAC). The determined AAC of black carbon was well consistent with the previously reported value. Our AAC values of two volcanic ash samples from 2010 eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull, similar to the AAC of brown carbon, indicated abundant organic compounds in the volcanic ash samples. The developed multi-wavelength PA spectrophone was tested and validated in an intensive field campaign measurements of environmental particles in Grenoble (France). Side-by-side inter-comparison measurements using an aethalometer showed a lineat correlation of the measured aerosol absorption coefficients from both instruments. (2) An extinctiometer based on IBBCEAS was developed for study of optical properties of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) produced from photolysis of 2-nitrophenol in an atmospheric simulation chamber at University College Cork (Ireland). Simultaneous monitoring of the SOA extinction and absorption (in conjuction with a PA spectrophone) coefficients was performed during its whole production process, the measured evolutions of the SOA optical properties highlighted the atmospheric aging effect. (3) In order to render optical sensor lightweight and suitable for field applications, in particular for the newly emerging unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) applications, a novel architecture of lock-in amplifier (LIA) was proposed and developed in the framework of this Phd Research. The novel LIA, evaluated with an inter-comparison measurement of ambient NO₂ at the ppbv concentration level, shows an identical performance (in terms of measurements accuracy and precision) as the widely used commercial LIA (SR830, Stanford Research Inc.), while using a simplified and lightweight hardware architecture. Evaluation of the aerosol impact on climate requires accurate and unbiased quantification of the its wavelength-dependent optical properties over a wide spectral region of the major solar radiation, which can provide information on particle size (due to the wavelength dependence of scattering by fine particles) as well as insights on aerosol chemical composition (because of its wavelength selective absorption). To date, it is still a key challenge in atmospheric science and climate change research. Development of a broadband aerosol albedometer is ongoing, which is dedicated to simultaneous measurements of aerosol extinction and absorption coefficients with high-accuracy and high-precision.
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