A project report submitted to the Faculty of Engineering, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Engineering Johannesburg, 1996 / Current practice of'the rural water sector in Mozambique does not generally consider all factors that have influenc.eon project sustainability, The urgent need to provide returnees in rural areas with safe water, does not give adequate time to engineers, technicians and those involved in the sector, to conceive and plan a water project property. A Decision Support System (DSS) for rural water supply has been proposed to assist the decision making process to be more systematic, fast and comprehensive. It requires a number of input cata variables which are not difficult to obtain and these variables have been selected to ensure that most aspects inherent in a successful project are considered. The main achievement of this system is the project report, similar to a project preliminary design, and the financial results which are important for project assessment and ranking. The Decision Support System is a computational model which uses engineering and economics approach to combine and process input data and information contained in its database. While the calculation method does not need constant updating, the database has to be verified frequently to produce reliable results. South African prices have been used in the database construction but a correction factor facility was incorporated to adjust and make the model useable in Mozambique. The model has been designed to be used by planners, engineers and technicians, and funding agencies. The model can be used by planners to assess implication of policy decisions on future water supplies and water resources development. For engineers and technicians, the model estimates water demands, project components sizes and quantities, and water source development and reliability. To funding agencies, the model is a tool to determine the best investment scenario of a rural water supply project.

by Chan Kok-Wing, Chu Ming-Cheung. / Thesis (M.B.A.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1985. / Bibliography: leaves 100-102.

"This research effort addresses key challenges associated with the technical review and acceptance of performance-based design approaches to fire safety engineering through development of a decision support framework and associated tool. Such design approaches seek to confirm that the overall fire safety system, which includes the building and its protective features, meets a set of fire safety objectives established by relevant stakeholders, and this confirmation is achieved through fire safety analysis, or the application of analytical and computational tools and methods. While the current approach to performance-based fire safety analysis relies on guidelines and standards, these rather generic, process-oriented documents do not provide fire protection engineers (FPEs) sufficient guidance to address critical elements of the analysis process in a systematic, consistent and technically adequate manner. Should a fire safety analysis contain technical deficiencies, then it becomes less clear that the design solution being proposed truly achieves the desired fire safety objectives. Moreover, project stakeholders, including the authority having jurisdiction (AHJ), may lack the necessary qualifications, expertise, or design intimacy to, suitably and reliably, identify and challenge deficient analyses. As a result, the current approach to fire safety analysis and its quality assurance has led to large variations in analysis quality and consequently levels of delivered performance. With no existing equivalent, a decision support framework is proposed that will assist the AHJ and FPEs in determining whether a fire safety analysis is of sufficient technical adequacy to support decision-making, regulatory or otherwise. Additionally, a decision support tool is developed to provide measures of confidence regarding an analysis’s conclusions and assist in identifying those aspects of the analysis most requiring corrective action. Lastly, while developed to address performance-based design approaches to fire safety engineering, the framework may easily be adapted to similar approaches in other fields of engineering, or more generally, applications that make use of process-oriented, analysis-driven design."

In a changing climate with an increasing risk of flooding, developing a sustainable approach to flood management is paramount. Sustainable Drainage Systems (SuDS) present a change in thinking with regards to drainage; storing water in the urban environment as opposed to rapidly removing it to outflows. The Non-Statutory Standards for SuDS (DEFRA 2015a) presented a requirement for all developments to integrate SuDS in their design to reduce runoff. This research models the impact on water quantity of combining different SuDS devices to demonstrate their success as a flood management system, as compared to conventional pipe based drainage. The research uses MicroDrainage®, the UK industry standard flood modelling tool which has an integrated SuDS function, to simulate the role of SuDS in a management train. As space is often cited as the primary reason for rejecting SuDS, determining the most effective technique at reducing runoff is critical. Detention basins were concluded as being highly effective at reducing peak flow (150 l/s when combined with swales), however Porous Pavement Systems (PPS) was nearly twice as effective per m3, reducing peak flow by up to 0.075 l/s/m3 compared to 0.025 l/s/m3. This therefore suggests that both detention basins and PPS should be high priority devices when developing new sites, but that no matter what combination of modelled SuDS are installed a reduction in runoff in comparison to conventional drainage can be achieved. A SuDS decision support tool was developed to assist design in MicroDrainage® by reducing the time spent determining the number of SuDS required for a site. The tool uses outputs from MicroDrainage® to rapidly predict the minimum and maximum peak flow for a site, in comparison to greenfield runoff, based on the site parameters of area, rainfall rate, infiltration, combined with the planned SuDS. The tool was underpinned by a model analysis for each site parameter and each SuDS device, which produced r2 values >0.8, with 70% above 0.9. This ensured a high level of confidence in the outputs, enabling a regression analysis between runoff and each site parameter and SuDS device at the 99% confidence level, with the outputs combined to create the tool. The final aspect of the research validated MicroDrainage® to analyse the accuracy of the software at predicting runoff. Using field data from Hamilton, Leicester, and laboratory data for PPS and filter drains, a comparison could be made with the output from MicroDrainage®. The field data created a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.88, with filter drains and PPS providing an NSE of 0.98 and 0.94 respectively. This demonstrates the success with which MicroDrainage® predicts runoff and provides credibility to the outputs of the research. Furthermore, it offers SuDS specialists the confidence to use MicroDrainage® to predict runoff when using SuDS.

Active fire protection systems are an essential fire safety management tool, particularly in potentially high financial and risk consequence scenarios. In the UK and Europe over recent decades regulatory changes have been successful in creating an environment in which more innovation can take place. Increased numbers of fixed firefighting system types are now available to the user. However, not all systems offered are equal in terms of; suitability, cost, maturity of supporting knowledge, and overall performance or in-service reliability. Understanding of the systems performance and its limitations and how to match this to the assessed fire risk is incomplete among users. Experts are observing increasing numbers of what they consider to be poor fixed firefighting system choices leading to weaker fire safety designs, which is a cause of concern. Therefore the research aim is to verify that these concerns are founded and, that being the case, to develop a decision support system and related supporting resources to further this aspect of fire safety education and enable users to make better informed system selections. Thus, the focus of this research has been to develop a fixed firefighting system selection tool to complement existing legislation, which incorporates logic, rules and fire safety educational resources in a variety of formats to aid the fire safety design process. A variety of largely heuristic techniques have been used to aggregate data to form knowledge to underpin fixed firefighting system selection tool. In this form, the tool has been validated by experts as being a useful resource. The developed tool also provides ample opportunity for useful ongoing future development. The work recognises that cost and benefit are critical in the selection process. Supporting resources have been incorporated into the tool to assist users in evaluating the levels of reliability they might expect from a system in their circumstances. This tool has now been exposed to a wider audience of experts as part of an evaluation process. Findings include: that the tool is an innovative approach to promoting good fire safety designs, the tool efficiently provides useful fire safety education to users and the developed supporting resources which consider firefighting system reliability are helpful. This thesis and reference papers summarise the key stages of this research and tool development. The thesis concludes by outlining the progress achieved by this work and recommendations arising.

Lameness is considered one of the most important health and welfare issues in the dairy industry. Understanding the total cost per case of disease-specific lameness can help producers select better treatment, prevention, and control strategies for their herds. The first objective of our research was to calculate the costs associated with 3 lameness causing hoof diseases: digital dermatitis, sole ulcer, and white line disease. To accomplish this, a survey of hoof health professionals (hoof trimmers and veterinarians) was conducted to identify treatment related expenditures per case. Data from the hoof trimmer responses to the survey and previously published research were incorporated into a farm-level stochastic simulation model to determine the expected costs per case of each disease and the most influential factors associated with disease costs. The cost per case was calculated by disease type, severity (mild or severe), incidence timing (0 to 60 days in milk, 61 to 120 days in milk, 121 to 240 days in milk, or > 240 days in milk), and parity group (primiparous or multiparous). The second objective of our research was to determine the economic value of investing in different lameness prevention strategies. Two prevention strategies were considered: 1) prevention of infectious hoof diseases and 2) prevention of non-infectious hoof diseases. The total expenditures (therapeutics, outside labor, on-farm labor, and prevention costs) and losses (discarded milk, reduced milk production, extended days open, increased risk of culling, increased risk of death, and recurrence losses) associated with each prevention strategy before and after prevention implementation were calculated and compared to find the breakeven investment cost.

La facilitation est un élément central dans une prise de décision de groupe surtout en faisant l'usage des outils de nouvelle technologie. Le facilitateur, pour rendre sa tâche facile, a besoin des solutions de vote pour départager les décideurs afin d'arriver à des conclusions dans une prise de décision. Une procédure de vote consiste à déterminer à partir d’une méthode le vainqueur ou le gagnant d’un vote. Il y a plusieurs procédures de vote dont certaines sont difficiles à expliquer et qui peuvent élire différents candidats/options/alternatives proposées. Le meilleur choix est celui dont son élection est acceptée facilement par le groupe. Le vote dans la théorie du choix social est une discipline largement étudiée dont les principes sont souvent complexes et difficiles à expliquer lors d’une réunion de prise de décision. Les systèmes de recommandation sont de plus en plus populaires dans tous les domaines de science. Ils peuvent aider les utilisateurs qui n’ont pas suffisamment d’expérience ou de compétence nécessaires pour évaluer un nombre élevé de procédures de vote existantes. Un système de recommandation peut alléger le travail du facilitateur dans la recherche d’une procédure vote adéquate en fonction du contexte de prise de décisions. Le sujet de ce travail de recherche s’inscrit dans le champ de l’aide à la décision de groupe. La problématique consiste à contribuer au développement d’un système d’aide à la décision de groupe (Group Decision Support System : GDSS). La solution devra s’intégrer dans la plateforme logicielle actuellement développée à l’IRIT GRUS : GRoUp Support. / Facilitation is a central element in decision-making, especially when using new technology tools. The facilitator, to make his task easy, needs voting solutions to decide between decision-makers in order to reach conclusions in a decision-making process. A voting procedure consists of determining from a method the winner of a vote. There are several voting procedures, some of which are difficult to explain and which may elect different candidate/options/alternatives proposed. The best choice is the one whose election is easily accepted by the group. Voting in social choice theory is a widely studied discipline whose principles are often complex and difficult to explain at a decision-making meeting. Recommendation systems are becoming more and more popular in all fields of science. They can help users who do not have sufficient experience or competence to evaluate large numbers of existing voting procedures. A recommendation system can lighten the facilitator's workload in finding an appropriate voting procedure based on the decision-making context. The objective of this research work is to design such recommendation system. This work is in the field of group decision support. The issue is to contribute to the development of a Group Decision Support System (GDSS). The solution will have to be integrated into the software platform currently being developed at IRITGRUS: GRoUp Support.

The Helicopter Emergency Medical Service (HEMS) accident rate has driven operators from around the world to address the management of risks inherent to their operations. In-flight decision-making, pre-flight planning, failure to follow standard operating procedures, delayed remedial actions, and misinterpretation of environmental cues are all areas that need to be addressed for safe HEMS operations. HEMS operations are complex, being a joint exercise between the flight crew, paramedics and supporting agencies. Operations occur around-the-clock, in all-weather conditions, and often with no fore-warning. In a time critical operation, where precious minutes may cost lives, operators must decide which cases warrant a HEMS response and if so, whether the conditions are safe to conduct the mission. Intelligent systems are an emerging field offering benefits to a multitude of applications. This research forms a comprehensive investigation of the application of 'intelligent systems' to the pre-mission analysis of HEMS operations. The research has resulted in the development of a prototype decision support system capable of assisting in the pre-mission analysis of HEMS operations. The prototype system is capable of supporting flight coordinators and crew in the decision-making processes prior to HEMS operations and can potentially improve emergency medical services to the community.

The recent downturn in world sugar prices has placed even greater demands upon the Australian sugar industry to reduce the costs of sugar manufacture and increase the consistency of producing high quality sugar. One of the proposed approaches in increasing the consistency of very high quality sugar production and leveraging further avenues for cost saving is in the development of a computer based advisory system. This system is able to provide expert knowledge in the area of pan stage management and best practices in the absence of human experts. This thesis explores the design, key features and outcomes of a knowledge based supervisory support system (KBSSS) framework proposed specifically for providing cooperative decision support in the area of pan stage operations within a sugar mill. To demonstrate the viability of the proposed KBSSS framework a prototype system was developed in accordance with the proposed framework. The KBSSS utilises three core innovative system technologies that form the core components of the proposed KBSSS framework. These technologies are: 1) Dynamic industrial pan stage process models for identifying the dynamic relationships between sections of pan stage operations to allow for future forecasting of pan stage operating conditions, 2) Integration techniques for the merging of the developed pan stage process models into the hybrid fuzzy logic expert system rule base to provide localisation adjustment to match with local real world factory operational conditions, and 3) Explanatory capabilities to provide justification and support of system advice and recommendations. As a result of research and development carried out in this thesis, the KBSSS's test results demonstrated in the thesis indicate the viability of the proposed KBSSS framework and highlight the forecasting capabilities of the developed system resulting in favourable outcomes compared to data from pan stage operations. As a result of the research undertaken in the thesis a prototype KBSSS, for pan stage operations, based upon the three core supporting intelligent system technologies reported in the thesis has been developed.

The development and induction in-service of Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAV) systems in a variety of civil, paramilitary and military roles have proven valuable on high-risk missions. These UAVs based on fixed wing configuration concept have demonstrated their operational effectiveness in recent operations. New UAVs based on rotary wing configuration concept have received major attention worldwide, with major resources committed for its research and development. In this thesis, the design process of a rotary-wing aircraft was re-visualised from an unmanned perspective to address the requirements of rotary-wing UAVs - Vertical Take-off UAVs (VTUAV). It investigates the conventional helicopter design methodology for application in UAV design. It further develops a modified design process for VTUAV addressing the requirements of unmanned missions by providing remote command-and-control capabilities. The modified design methodology is automated to address the complex design evaluations and optimisation process. An illustration of the automated design process developed for VTUAVs is provided through a series of inputs of the requirements and specifications, resulting in an output of a proposed VTUAV design configuration for