The diploma thesis deals with the issue of the deflation at the current monetary conditions. The starting point for the identification and differentiation of the ob-served deflationary phenomena in the Japanese and Chinese economies is the comparison of the theoretical approaches of the mainstream and alternative eco-nomics. Using the example of the United States, economic cycle is analysed accord-ing to the concept of the theory of the Austrian business cycle, which is then used in analysing the economic situation of China and Japan in the observed period.

In current valuation and economics disciplines, it is a commonly held belief that financial crisis is over and a big threat to world economic system is inflation. While many assumptions of these claims are of certain significance indeed, this thesis proves a non-trivial chance of outright deflation. Author of this work also shows that attempts of governments and central banks aimed at avoiding deflationary scenarios ultimately cause slower growth and elevated variance in economic activity. Due to existence of such causality, a new variable "tau" entering into CAPM model's risk premium was developed as the original model had previously not captured for impacts of monetary and government policies. In order to quantify a probability and strength of deflationary forces in developed world, three distinct approaches were utilized -- quantitative assessment, historical comparisons, and a pure economic theory based reasoning. Value of variable tau was determined by regressing relationship between implied risk premium and changes in monetary policy while testing for different time lags. Results of the work point to a 10-20% chance of deflation in developed world. Extremely loose monetary policy worldwide than warrants augmenting additional 1-2% risk premium to current implied risk premium of US stock market. Although newly defined models would certainly need more work and refining, author believes that the augmented CAPM version does a good job capturing the "irrational exuberance" mentality attached to policies of major central banks around the world. The three year lead of model-based risk premium compared to the implied one is perceived as one more contribution to current valuation process and understanding of risk.

The main thesis of this paper is to identify and describe the common and different aspects of the monetary policies of Austria and Czechoslovakia in the years 1918-1929, as one of the possible determinants of post-war economic development of both countries. As the successor states to the Austro-Hungarian monarchy both countries faced the same currency problems, although Czechoslovakia was on the winning side and Austria on the losing side, which determined the economic conditions in both countries in their beginnings. To address monetary issues each country had a different approach, while for example Austria experienced post-war hyperinflation Czechoslovakia executed the first wave of deflation. Despite the successes of the Czechoslovak economy in the period under review, only by comparing them to Austria showed that against all odds the economic performance of Austria was better. One of the possible causes was a different implementation of monetary policy, which is the central theme of this paper. Although the two countries are once again "reunited" in the European Union, their mutual relations are still impeded by specific problems whose origins can also be traced to the interwar period.

This thesis deals with CNB foreign-exchange intervention from November 2013 in context of assumptions and impacts on the Czech economy. The theoretical part presents important monetary policy aspects, from conventional and unconventional tools to inflation targeting and deflation, to understand theoretical framework of analysis. Analytic part takes a look on Czech economy condition before interventions, especially inflation. Intervention impacts and exit strategies are examined further. Based on the analyzed data this thesis concludes that foreign-exchange interventions by Czech National Bank were not necessary and inevitable action.

Tato diplomová práce se zabývá Velkou hospodářskou krizí, která proběhla v letech 1929 až 1933/4. Světově proslulá deprese se projevila již v roce 1929 a prohlubovala se až do roku 1933, ve kterém dosáhla nejnižšího bodu v hospodářském cyklu. Jejími charakteristickými rysy byla deflační tendence, nezaměstnanost, snižování reálného produktu. Velká část československého obyvatelstva trpěla vysokou nezaměstnaností, ti šťastnější polozaměstnaností a nemožností si najít práci novou, zejména zemědělskému dělnictvu se snižovaly reálné mzdy a navíc zemědělské výrobky prodávali za stále se snižující ceny, v důsledku čehož žili na pokraji chudoby. Nepříznivá situace byla i v oblasti podnikání, zvyšovala se úroková míra a v průmyslovém odvětví docházelo zejména ke snižování množství vyrobené produkce. Krize zasáhla rovněž komerční banky a nepříznivý vývoj zaznamenávaly nejrůznější makroekonomické ukazatele. Práce obsahuje tři kapitoly, první kapitola popisuje průběh krize v Československu ve sféře zemědělské, průmyslové, situaci komerčních bank a monetární politiku, krizovou situaci v zaměstnanosti a průběh deprese v národním hospodářství jako celku. Druhá kapitola popisuje a analyzuje způsoby léčby krize a jejich důsledky. Tato kapitola obsahuje některé navrhované neuskutečněné způsoby léčby deprese a obsahuje jejich porovnání. Třetí kapitola je věnována pohledům a teoriím ekonomů.

The aim of this paper is to examine the striking inverse co-movement of decreasing inflation rates and increasing degree of globalization in developed economies during the current wave of globalization beginning in the 1980s. Our analysis stands on theoretical identification of channels through which globalization affects inflation in developed economies and the role of monetary policy in the process. Econometric estimation of the impact of advancing globalization on the rate of inflation carried out on a sample of high-income OECD countries over the years 1980 - 2013 supports our hypothesis that advancing globalization has a significant negative impact on the rate of inflation in advanced economies.

Deflation, which has recently represented significant source of concern, is by many economists perceived to be an unfavorable phenomenon in the economy. The aim of this paper is to identify the possible link between deflation and economic downturn based on the comprehensive view. The emphasis is put on the analysis of historical episodes of deflation over the past two centuries in order to shed light on causes and impacts of deflation during the periods. The paper does not neglect the comparison of theoretical approaches. The results of the analysis, supported by empirical studies, imply that the relationship between deflation and recession is complex. Although the paper does not confirm the existence of a general link between deflation and recession, it reveals that recession often leads to deflation (especially in a low inflation environment), but deflation does not usually result in recession. In many cases deflation remains to be a symptom of economic problems, not their cause.

Many countries in the world experience demographic transition - significant decrease of fertility rates and increase share of the old population. The pace and characteristics of demographic shifts however are individual for each country. At the same time these countries face low inflation rates or even deflation. In this thesis I demonstrate how demographic changes are correlated with low inflation rates. I estimated two different models - VAR and FEM for panel data using two samples of developing countries. The primary argument of using two separate groups for estimating the same problem is robustness check, whether all three imposed hypotheses will hold in any sample of the population. These hypotheses are - first, deflation is positively correlated with increased share of the old population, second, low inflation in developing economies has structural pattern due to demographic changes and third, deflation can be forecastable if it is driven by demographic trends. Despite the heterogeneity of the results from PVAR and FEM, a negative impact of aging population on inflation has been proved. Also estimation results support our two hypotheses that low inflation if it is partially driven by aging structure changes, has structural rather than cyclical characteristics and is predictable. Contribution...

The thesis aims to explain different theoretical approaches to definition of deflation, categorize deflation, define positive and negative connotations typical for each economical school, define the role of monetary policy in relation to price stability and monetary instruments with an emphasis on unconventional. The last part applies theoretical knowledge on Swiss situation, describes the interventions between years 2009 and 2016 and presents their initially predicted and subsequently real, graphically illustrated impact on economy. The theoretical part of diploma concludes that mainstream economy perception is the most suitable for definition of deflation, therefore perceive it as a negative phenomenon and calls for elimination. Each step of SNB monetary policy was controversial. The author opens the question of the necessity of intervention from 2009, explains the reasons of SNB steps from 2011 and exit strategy from 2015. However, the author do not forget on negative connotations. In the final part, thesis outlines the most discussed topics raised by Swiss interventions and opens the topic of negative rates as unconventional monetary instrument.

The thesis deals with a monetary phenomenon of price deflation. In modern monetary theories, causes are sometimes confused with consequences. As to price deflation, consequences of causes of this phenomenon are often attributed to it while it is not a cause but a mere consequence. That's why we have identified causes of price deflation and their true consequences in the thesis. According to quantity theory of money, there are three main sources of price deflation as follows: decline in money supply, decline in velocity of circulation of money, and productivity growth. These causes are analyzed in detail, each of them in a single chapter. Price deflation is often associated with depressions while in some cases it might be a mere consequence of depression, not a cause. On the other hand, price deflation might also be a consequence of productivity growth (unless accommodated by increase in money supply) which makes it perfectly compatible with a healthy and growing economy.