Thesis (M.A.(Population and Reproductive Health Research))--Mahidol University, 2005. / LICL has E-Thesis 0004 ; please contact computer services.

Thesis (Ph.D. (Demography))--Mahidol University, 2007. / LICL has E-Thesis 0024 ; please contact computer services.

No description available.

[pt] Há pouca resposta das taxas nominais de juros ao movimentos da inflação na segunda metade do Século XIX, enquanto a equação de Fisher prevê uma relação de um para um da taxa nominal de juros à inflação. A maior parte das respostas a essa observação dependem, de algum jeito, de argumentos sobre a irracionalidade dos agentes econômicos (Fisher (1906), Friedman e Schwartz (1982), Summers (1983) e Barsky e De Long (1991), por exemplo), ou argumentam que os dados desse período são falhos (Perez e Siegler (2003)). Nessa dissertação, eu argumento que a taxa de juros nominal não aumentou o quanto deveria não por irracionalidade dos agentes, mas sim porque a taxa natural de juros abaixou como resposta a uma transição demográfica nesse período, atribuída às melhoras na infraestrutura de saúde pública e a avanços na ciência médica. Eu construo um modelo de gerações imbricadas estilizado com base em Gertler (1999) que captura algumas das principais características da economia americana desse período. Então, calibro-o e conduzo experimentos demográficos para mostrar que o principal argumento de Barsky e De Long (1991) contra o efeito Fisher não prossegue caso se cancelem os efeitos da transição demográfica. / [en] There is little response of nominal interest rates to inflationary movements in the second half of the Nineteenth Century, while the Fisher equation would predict a one-to-one relation between these economic variables. Most of the previous answers to this observation rely on some sort of irrationality argument (Fisher (1906), Friedman and Schwartz (1982), Summers (1983) and Barsky and De Long (1991) are some examples) or state that there are problems in the data used (Perez and Siegler (2003)). In this thesis, I argue that this is not due to agent irrationality, but to the lowering of the equilibrium interest rate level as a response to a demographic transition attributed to advances in medical science and enhancements in sanitation infrastructure. I build an stylized overlapping generations model based on Gertler (1999) that captures the main features of the American Economy during this period, then calibrate it and conduct experiments to show that Barsky and De Long s (1991) strike on the Fisher Effect does not hold when the demographic channel is turned off.

No description available.

Le renouvellement urbain est une notion polysémique, ambigüe voire mouvante en fonction des contextes politiques dans lesquels elle est utilisée. Les politiques de renouvellement urbain supposent d’identifier les mécanismes envisagés sur les espaces urbains et comprendre leur genèse. Pour ce faire, la politique américaine d'Urban Renewal et plusieurs expériences européennes aident à comprendre le positionnement du renouvellement urbain français qui oscille entre une volonté curative de traiter les quartiers aux difficultés socio-économiques, et prospective en s'intégrant à un projet plus global, métropolitain, d’attractivité de nouveaux habitants. La thèse suppose que le renouvellement urbain est inscrit spatialement et prend forme dans les villes-centres et les banlieues à l’aide d’une analyse de la croissance démographique des aires urbaines françaises. On examine comment cette dualité du renouvellement urbain (stratégies prospectives et curatives) s'applique aux politiques françaises de rénovation urbaine à l’aide du PNRU (Programme National de Rénovation Urbaine). Cette étude révèle l’action différenciée du programme en fonction des espaces analysés, notamment au prisme de la croissance, de la résurgence et du déclin des villes françaises. La grille de lecture économique du renouvellement urbain permet d'identifier une dualité de mécanismes liée aux marchés et aux externalités / The term “urban renewal” is polysemic and ambiguous, ever-changing depending on the political context in which it is being used. Policies of urban renewal require to have identified the mechanisms applied to urban spaces and to have understood their genesis. In order to do so, the American policy of urban renewal alongside several European experiments help to understand the positioning of the French urban renewal, a policy which oscillates between a curative effort towards neighborhoods faced with socioeconomic difficulties and a prospective strategy encompassed within a comprehensive, metropolitan project aimed at attracting new residents. This thesis builds on an analysis of the demographic growth of French urban areas to posit that urban renewal is spatially defined shaped in core cities and suburbs. It examines how the duality of urban renewal (both prospective and curative strategies) applies to French policies of urban renewal supported by the “PNRU” (National Program of Urban Renewal). The study reveals the differentiated actions of the program depending on the spaces analyzed through the lens of growth, resurgence and decline of French cities. The economic analytical framework of urban renewal reveals dual mechanisms linked to markets and externalities.

En Tunisie, la massification et la démocratisation de l’enseignement supérieur ont explosé le nombre de diplômés qui éprouvent des difficultés d’insertion professionnelle depuis le début des années 1980, cette conjoncture a été l’un des principaux déclencheurs de la révolution du 14 janvier 2011.Comme dans plusieurs des pays, l’origine du chômage des diplômés tunisiens réside essentiellement dans le déphasage entre les formations (investissement en capital humain) et les besoins des entreprises (l’investissement en matière d’emploi).Ce phénomène ne manque pas d’avoir des conséquences sociodémographiques importantes. En effet, les individus en difficulté d’insertion sont souvent victimes d’un sentiment de marginalisation, voire d’exclusion, notamment des transactions matrimoniales (retard de leur date de mise en couple qui aura des conséquences sur la fécondité). Les diplômés développent alors des stratégies pour échapper au chômage tels que l’émigration, la poursuite des études surtout pour les filles ou la création d’entreprises si la situation financière le permet.L’objectif de cette thèse consiste à étudier et à comprendre les interactions entre l’emploi et les phénomènes démographiques. / In Tunisia, the massification and democratization of higher education have exploded the number of graduates who have employability problems since the early 1980s, this situation was one of the main triggers of the Revolution of January 14, 2011. As in many countries, causing the unemployment Tunisian graduates lies essentially in the phase shift between training (human capital investment), and business needs (investment in employment). This phenomenon does not fail to have significant sociodemographic consequences. Indeed, individuals with insertion difficulties often experience a sense of marginalization or exclusion, including matrimonial transactions (delay their date of couple formation will affect fertility). Graduates eek to developing strategies to escape unemployment to escape unemployment such as emigration, further education especially for girls or business creation if the financial situation allows.The objective of this thesis is to study and understand the interactions between employment and demographic phenomena.

Alors que le nombre et la proportion de personnes âgées de 60 ans et plus vont continuer de s'accroître dans les pays en voie de développent comme l'Iran au cours des prochaines décennies, l'augmentation de la demande et des dépenses de santé et particulièrement les soins de longue durée poseront les mêmes problèmes de santé publique auxquels les pays développées sont confrontés aujourd'hui.Face au vieillissement de la population marquée par la transition démographique, face à l'augmentation de la longévité et du nombre de personnes en situation de dépendance, de fragilité et de handicap, face à la réduction des possibilités d'aides familiales, les communautés et les nations s'engagent le plus souvent vers une augmentation des structures d'hébergement et de soins, puis reconsidèrent pour des questions économiques la prise en charge à domicile.L'accélération de la transition démographique sur une courte période pour les pays en développement comme l'Iran doit être alarmante pour leurs responsables politiques car aucune planification stratégique de ces impacts socio-économiques n'a été élaborée. Les baby-boomers de 1991-1996 en Iran arriveront à l âge de + de 60 ans vers 2050. Les iraniens et les autorités sociales ont 40 ans (Windows oppurtunity =fenêtre démographique «d'opportunité ») pour couvrir les besoins de cette population âgée. Bien que le vieillissement des personnes soit important le besoin de soins pour une partie d'entre eux le sera encore plus en raison d'une limitation dans leur autonomie quotidienne. La prévalence de l'incapacité va croître rapidement avec l'âge.Dans notre étude, nous concluons qu'en 2009, 136 personnes âgées de plus de 60 ans sur 10.000 habitants sont modérément ou très dépendantes (1.005.400 personnes en 2009). Cela signifie qu'ils ne peuvent pas faire leurs activités de la vie quotidienne et qu'ils ont besoin d'aide des autres. Ils ont besoin d'une autre personne pour les aider dans leur toilette, l'alimentation, de transfert, faire des courses, ménage de la maison, et ainsi de suite. Pour les personnes âgées avec la dépendance est sévère, ont besoin d'aide 24/24 heures. Cela signifie qu'ils sont incontinents, grabataires et ont parfois besoin d'une alimentation artificielle (Alimentation par sonde naso-gastrique, ou gastrostomie). A l'avenir, en 2050, le nombre de personnes dépendantes âgées peut être estimé à 544 personnes / 10000. (5.449.465 personnes en Iran en 2050) Cela signifie que le nombre de personnes âgées qui ont besoin de soins pour leur vie sera multiplié par 4. En même temps, en raison du déclin de la fécondité de cette période (2009-2049), le nombre d'enfants va baisser. Ainsi, les parents n'auront pas assez d'enfants pour leur soutien et leurs soins. Un autre résultat de notre travail évalue que 45% de la population iranienne en 2050 sera âgée entre 50-80 ans, donc l'âge moyen des aidant familiaux va augmenter. / While the number and proportion of people aged 60 and over will continue to grow in developing countries such as Iran in the coming decades, increasing demand and spending on health and particularly long-term care will pose the same problems that developed countries are facing today. Faced with an aging population marked by the demographic transition, facing increasing longevity and number of people experiencing dependency, frailty and disability reduced number of family caregivers, communities and nations to commit more often an increase in economic berdun . acceleration of demographic transition over a short period for developing countries like Iran should be alarming to their political leaders because none of these strategic planning for aging socio-economic impacts has been elaborated. As baby boomers reach Iran in 1991-1996 at the age of 60 + years to 2050. The Iranian authorities and the social have 40 years (= Windows oppurtunity demographic window "of opportunity") to cover the needs of the elderly population. The prevalence of disability will increase rapidly with age. In our study, we conclude that in 2009, 136 people aged over 60 in 10,000 people are moderately or highly dependent (1,005,400 people in 2009). This means they can not do their activities of daily living and they need help from others. They need another person to help them in their grooming, feeding, transfer, shopping, house cleaning, and so on. For older people with severe dependency, they need help for 24/24 hours. This means they are incontinent, bed ridden and sometimes require artificial feeding (Feeding by naso-gastric or gastrostomy). In the future, in 2050, the number of elderly dependents can be estimated at 544 people / 10000. (5,449,465 people in Iran in 2050) This means that the number of elderly who need care for their life will be multiplied by 4. At the same time, because of declining fertility of this period (2009-2049), the number of children will decline. Thus, parents will not have enough children for their support and care. Another result of our work is estimated that 45% of the Iranian population in 2050 will be aged between 50-80 years, so the average age of family caregivers will increase.

Syftet med detta arbete var att utvärdera förbättringsmöjligheterna i projektorganisationers beslutsprocesser så att deras leveranser kan följa en övergripande metod. Vidare skall det kunna användas inom olika organisationsmodeller, såsom offentliga, privata men också inom offentlig- privat samverkan. Målet har varit att påvisa skillnader i leveransernas kvalitet samt demografiska skillnader med utgångspunkt från den övergripande metoden.    En kvalitativ undersökning i form av en fallstudie har gjorts på Trafikverket på avdelningen Investering-Teknik & Miljö där den interna metoden för bedömning av omgivningspåverkan för projekt utan planläggning har analyserats med avseende på kvalitet och regionala skillnader. En dokumentstudie av 25 projekt från Trafikverkets sex regioner samt semistrukturerade intervjuer med projektdeltagare visade på en stor spridning och variation i både kvalitet, prioritering av redovisning samt regionala skillnader. Resultatets spridning och variation beror troligtvis på att projektens beslut huvudsakligen har fattats på intuitiva grunder samt att den övergripande  metoden uppfattats och tolkats olika. Så är även fallet om man jämför de olika regionerna.    Den viktigaste insikten i denna undersökning är vikten av att använda en rationell beslutsmodell för att på så sätt få projekten att konsekvent och genomgående använda och redovisa alla de delar och moment som finns med i metoden. Med ett digitalt system för motivering och redovisning av de olika delarna skulle det bli lättare att styra och jämföra projekten på regional och nationell bas. / The purpose of this thesis has been to evaluate the improvement opportunities in project organizations' decision-making processes so that their deliveries can follow an overall approach. Furthermore, it may be used in different organizational models, such as public, private but also in public-private partnerships. The objectives have been to investigate differences in delivery quality as well as demographic differences based on the overall method.  A qualitative survey in the form of a case study has been carried out at the Swedish Transport Administration at the Investment-Technology & Environment Department, where the internal method for Assessing the environmental impact of projects without planning has been analyzed in terms of quality and regional differences. A document study of 25 projects from the Swedish Transport Administration's six regions and semi structured interviews with project participants showed a wide spread and variation in both quality, prioritization of presentation and regional differences. The spread and variation of the results is probably due to the fact that the decisions of the projects are mainly taken on intuitive grounds, and that the overall method has been perceived and interpreted differently. This is also the case when comparing the different regions.  The most important insight from this study is the importance of using a rational decision-making model in order to get the projects to consistently use and present all the parts and elements included in the method. With a digital system for motivating and reporting the different parts, it would be easier to control and compare projects on a regional and national basis.

Submitted by Gustavo Gomes (gustavolascasas@gmail.com) on 2013-09-04T12:41:26Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Reconstru????o de Hist??rias de Nascimentos a partir de dados censit??rios.pdf: 1547221 bytes, checksum: 2387cf4fab6247aeacc0a867189dffcc (MD5) license_rdf: 23599 bytes, checksum: 9e2b7f6edbd693264102b96ece20428a (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Roger Guedes (roger.guedes@fjp.mg.gov.br) on 2013-09-04T16:59:05Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 Reconstru????o de Hist??rias de Nascimentos a partir de dados censit??rios.pdf: 1547221 bytes, checksum: 2387cf4fab6247aeacc0a867189dffcc (MD5) license_rdf: 23599 bytes, checksum: 9e2b7f6edbd693264102b96ece20428a (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-09-04T16:59:05Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Reconstru????o de Hist??rias de Nascimentos a partir de dados censit??rios.pdf: 1547221 bytes, checksum: 2387cf4fab6247aeacc0a867189dffcc (MD5) license_rdf: 23599 bytes, checksum: 9e2b7f6edbd693264102b96ece20428a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2007 / Funda????o Jo??o Pinheiro / Durante a segunda metade do s??culo XX, o Brasil passou por um r??pido, surpreendente e generalizado processo de decl??nio da fecundidade, sem o pren??ncio de mudan??as s??cio-econ??micas, estruturais e de pol??ticas de planejamento familiar expl??citas. Os n??veis cada vez mais baixos da fecundidade no pa??s colocam novos desafios. Um desses desafios est?? relacionado ?? mensura????o da fecundidade. Apesar da boa qualidade dos dados censit??rios brasileiros, os debates acerca das tend??ncias da fecundidade ficam limitados ?? an??lise das medidas tradicionais, devido ?? menor qualidade dos registros de nascimentos e ?? aus??ncia de boas hist??rias de nascimentos. Na medida em que a fecundidade declina e as mudan??as passam ocorrer em um ritmo mais lento, novas dimens??es assumem um papel importante nas an??lises sobre a fecundidade. O objetivo principal deste trabalho ?? o de aplicar duas metodologias de reconstru????o de hist??ria de nascimentos ??? uma metodologia em desenvolvimento no Cedeplar e outra metodologia desenvolvida por Luther & Cho (1986) ??? aos dados censit??rios brasileiros de 2000, comparar e testar a confiabilidade dos resultados. Pretende-se, com isso, determinar a metodologia mais adequada ao caso brasileiro e buscar um melhor aproveitamento das bases de dados dispon??veis, no que concerne a formas alternativas de estima????o da fecundidade. Os objetivos espec??ficos s??o: (i) aplicar a metodologia de reconstru????o de hist??rias de nascimentos mais adequada ao caso brasileiro aos dados dos Censos Demogr??ficos de 1980 e 1991; (ii) aplicar o M??todo dos Filhos Pr??prios ??s tr??s ??ltimas edi????es do Censo Demogr??fico brasileiro ??? 1980, 1991 e 2000; (iii) comparar as s??ries hist??ricas de TFT pelas hist??rias de nascimentos com a s??rie produzida pelo M??todo dos Filhos Pr??prios; (iv) aplicar o modelo proposto por Kohler & Ortega, que dissocia os efeitos sobre a fecundidade em tr??s componentes ??? tempo, quantum e composi????o ???, utilizando as bases de dados das hist??rias de nascimentos; (v) calcular medidas alternativas de fecundidade de per??odo, baseadas em probabilidades de nascimento. Os resultados sugerem que a metodologia de reconstru????o de hist??rias de nascimentos desenvolvida no Cedeplar ?? a mais satisfat??ria para o caso do Brasil por ter produzido melhores resultados quando aplicada aos dados do Censo Demogr??fico de 2000. Os resultados da aplica????o aos dados censit??rios de 1980 e 1991 tamb??m foram satisfat??rios, quando comparados aos resultados do M??todo dos Filhos Pr??prios. A aplica????o do modelo de K??hler e Ortega e a determina????o de indicadores alternativos de fecundidade de per??odo sugerem que o decl??nio da fecundidade no Brasil foi acompanhado por um efeito tempo negativo e um efeito parturi????o significativo. Ao final dos anos 1990, os resultados indicam que ?? prov??vel que o Brasil entre no processo de posterga????o da fecundidade, com predomin??ncia de efeito tempo. A se confirmar este cen??rio, a fecundidade observada no Brasil atingir?? n??veis bem mais baixos do que os j?? observados. / Brazil has experienced a steady fertility decline during the last fifty years, despite the lack of socioeconomic and structural changes or any explicit family planning policies. The low fertility levels leads to new challenges, one of them related to fertility measurement. Although Brazil has very good quality census data, the debate on future fertility trends and their political/economic consequences has been limited by the lack of good quality birth histories and vital registration. The only empirical evidence used by the experts is the measurement of period TFRs (incidence rates). As fertility reaches lower levels, new dimensions assume an important role in fertility analysis ??? for instance, the current debate about tempo and quantum. Taking those dimensions into consideration is crucial for understanding the fertility transition in Brazil. The main objective of this dissertation is to determine the more satisfactory methodology of birth history reconstruction to the Brazilian case in 2000, based on two methodologies ??? one being developed at Cedeplar, and one elaborated by Luther and Cho (1986). Data come from the Brazilian Demographic Census. The specific objectives of this dissertation are: (i) to apply the more satisfactory birth history reconstruction methodology to the 1980 and 1991 Brazilian Demographic Censuses; (ii) to apply the Own Children Method to the last three editions of the Brazilian demographic censuses; (iii) to compare the TFR series produced by the birth history reconstruction methodology to the series produced by the Own Children Method ; (iv) to apply the K??hler and Ortega method to disentangle tempo and parity composition effects from the observed TFR; and (v) to determine alternative period fertility measures, based on birth probabilities. Results suggest that the methodology of birth history reconstruction developed at Cedeplar ??? HNM ??? is more satisfactory to the Brazilian case, as it produced better results when applied to the 2000 Brazilian Demographic Census. Data from the 1980 and 1991 censuses also yielded satisfactory results when compared to the Own Children Method results. The application of the K??hler and Ortega method and the determination of the alternative period fertility measures suggest that the fertility decline in Brazil was accompanied by a negative tempo effect and a significant parity composition effect. At the end of the 1990???s, the results indicate that Brazil will probably enter into the fertility postponement process with a dominant tempo effect. If this scenario is confirmed, Brazil will experience very low levels of observed TFR in the near future. / Pessoa, fam??lia e sociedade