Ce mémoire de thèse présente une étude fondamentale enrichie par des contributions qui sont articulées autour de la modélisation de processus ainsi qu'un diagnostic de défauts en utilisant l'analyse en composantes principales (ACP). Dans l'objectif d'un choix optimal du modèle ACP, une étude comparative de quelques critères connus dans la littérature nous a permis de conclure que le problème rencontré est souvent lié à une ignorance des variables indépendantes et quasi-indépendantes. Dans ce cadre, nous avons réalisé deux démonstrations mettant en évidence les limitations de deux critères en particulier la variance non reconstruite (VNR). En s'appuyant sur le principe d'une telle variance, nous avons proposé trois nouveaux critères. Parmi eux, deux ont été considérés comme étant empiriques car seule l'expérience permettra de prouver leur efficacité. Le troisième critère noté VNRVI représente un remède à la limitation du critère VNR. Une étude de sa consistance théorique a permis d'établir les conditions garantissant l'optimalité de son choix. Les résultats de simulation ont validé une telle théorie en prouvant ainsi que le critère VNRVI étant plus efficace que ceux étudiés dans cette thèse. Dans le cadre d'un diagnostic de défauts par ACP, l'approche de reconstruction des indices de détection ainsi que celle des contributions ont été utilisées. A travers une étude de généralisation, nous avons étendu le concept d'isolabilité de défauts par reconstruction à tout indice quadratique. / This thesis presents a fundamental study enhanced by some contributions that are focused on process modelling and fault diagnosis using principal components analysis (PCA). In order to find an optimal PCA model, we have concluded through a comparative study of some popular criteria that the problem is often related to an ignorance of the independent and quasi-independent variables. In this framework, we have performed two demonstrations highlighting the limitations of two selection criteria in particular the unreconstructed variance (VNR). Based on the principle of VNR approach, we have proposed three new criteria, among them two methods were considered as empirical criteria because only the experience will prove their effectiveness. However the third one which is noted VNRVI represents a cure for the limitation of the classical VNR criterion. Thus, the conditions that ensure an optimal selection were derived according to a theoretical consistency study of the VNRVI approach. The simulation results have successfully validated the VNRVI criterion by proving that is more effective than the other studied criteria in the present thesis. The reconstruction and contributions approaches were used for fault diagnosis using PCA. According to a unified study, we have extended the fault isolability concept based on the reconstruction method to any detection index which has a quadratic form. Such generalization has allowed us to develop a theoretical fault isolability analysis based on the reconstruction of the combined index versus those of SPE and T2 indices. This analysis has highlighted the advantage of using the combined index for fault isolation.

Neste trabalho estudamos a estabilidade assintótica de Lagrange para duas classes de sistemas, sob as hipóteses de detetabilidade fraca e de limitação do custo medio a longo prazo. Para sistemas lineares com saltos markovianos com rudo aditivo, a equivalência entre estabilidade e as condições mencionadas sera provada. Para sistemas dinâmicos generalizados, provaremos a estabilidade sob uma condição adicional / In this work we study Lagrange asymptotic stability for two classes of systems, under conditions of weak detectability and boundedness of the long run average cost. For Markov jump linear systems with additive noise, the equivalence between stability and the aforementioned conditions is proved. For generalized dynamical systems, we prove stability under an additional condition

LOW ALTITUDE RADAR WAVE PROPAGATION MODELLING In this PhD thesis, propagation aspects of low altitude radar performance have been modeled using geometrical optics. Both the path propagation factor and the radar clutter have been modeled. Such models already exist at various complexity levels, such as round earth specular reflection combined with knife edge hill diffraction [SEKE:IEEE,Ap- 34,No:8,1980] and round earth and slant plateau reflection combined with hill diffraction [RADCAL: 1988-2000,EE,METU]. In the proposed model we have considered an extension to RADCAL&rsquo / s model to include convex and concave slant plateaus between hills and depressions (troughs). This propagation model uses a reflection model based on the Geometrical Theory of Reflection for the convex and concave surfaces. Also, back scattering from surface (clutter) is formulated for the new model of the terrain profile. The effects of the features of the terrain profile on the path propagation factor have been investigated. A real terrain data have been smoothed on the basis of the above study. In order to verify the formulation, the Divergence and Convergence Factors associated with the convex and concave plateaus, respectively are inserted into the RADCAL program. The chosen terrains have convex or concave plateaus in the model. The output of the RADCAL is compared with measured values and other propagation algorithms such as Forward-Backward Spectrally Accelerated (FBSA) [FBSA:IEEE Vol.53, No:9,2005] and Parabolic Equation Method [TPEM:IEEE Vol.42,No:1,1994]. Moreover, as the RADCAL Propagation model is based on the ray optics, the results are also compared with another ray optics based propagation model. For this purpose the results of SEKE [Lincoln Lab.] propagation model are used. SEKE model has been used to compute path loss for different types of terrain as a function of receiving antenna height at a fixed distance between transmit and receive antennas. For Beiseker W35 Terrain profile, the results of RADCAL, SEKE and measurements are compared. All results are in good agreement with those of RADCAL.

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico / Lonchophylla bokermanniSazima, Vizotto & Taddei, 1978 é uma espécie de morcego nectarívoro de médio porte endêmica do sudeste brasileiro. Pouco se sabe sobre sua biologia e distribuição geográfica, e por isso mesmo é classificada pela União para Conservação da Natureza (IUCN) como Deficiente de Dados. Está, no entanto, na lista brasileira da fauna ameaçada de extinção, sendo considerada Vulnerável por apresentar distribuição restrita, populações pequenas e isoladas, e estar vivenciando uma rápida destruição de seus habitats.Uma das mais importantes lacunas no conhecimento sobre L. bokermanni é o seu padrão de distribuição geográfica. Esta espécie possui uma distribuição disjunta, com uma forma na porção interior de sua distribuição, restrita aos arredores de sua localidade tipo, e uma forma com uma distribuição mais ampla, entre a Serra do Mar e o litoral. Existe a possibilidade de que a forma costeira possa corresponder a uma espécie ainda não descrita, visto que possui antebraços menores e algumas medidas cranianasdiferentes em relação a forma do interior.Nesta dissertação procuro gerar dados quantitativos mínimos necessários para determinar o status de conservação de L. bokermanni segundo os critérios da IUCN. Tendo em vista as incertezas taxonômicas, sempre que possível as análises foram feitas com três conjuntos de dados: i) todos os registros de ocorrência, assumindo que representam uma única espécie, ii) apenas com os dados da forma do interior, assumindo que representam L. bokermanni, e iii) apenas com os dados da forma costeira, assumindo que representam uma nova espécie. No primeiro capítulo foram identificadas áreas prioritárias para a busca de novas populações de L. bokermanni Essas áreas apresentam as condições climáticas e altitudinais típicas para a espécie, mantêm sua cobertura florestal, têm poucos inventários de quirópteros e estão fora da área de distribuição conhecida da espécie. O capítulo também apresenta o resultado da busca em campo por novas populações da espécie em três destas áreas prioritárias, ao sul da distribuição conhecida. No segundo capítulo a probabilidade de detecção e ocupação de Lonchophylla bokermanni foi modelada em escala regional e local, utilizando covariáveis ambientais e metodológicas que podem explicar os padrões encontrados. O grau de incerteza na distribuição conhecida da espécie foi avaliado, e estimou-se o esforço mínimo necessário para termos confiançana ausência da espécie em uma localidade. No terceiro capítulo a informação apresentada nos capítulos anteriores foi utilizada para determinar o status de conservação de L. bokermanni (segundo o critério de Extensão de Ocorrência da IUCN), discutir o estado atual de conhecimento sobre a espécie e as consequências de possíveis mudanças taxonômicas para seu status de conservação. / Lonchophylla bokermanni Sazima, Vizotto & Taddei, 1978 is a medium sized nectar-feeding bat endemic to forested areas in southeastern Brazil.In the Brazilian Threatened Species List it is assigned as Vulnerable to extinction because it has a restricted distribution, small and isolated populations, and its habitat is being lost at a very fast rate. The species was recorded in few localities, however, and little is known about its biology. Because not enough information is available to assess the species distribution, which may be widespread or restricted, L. bokermanni is listed as Data Deficient by the IUCN.One of the largest knowledge gaps for Lonchophyllabokermanni is the pattern of its geographic distribution. As currently defined the species has a disjunct distribution, with one form occurring in a restricted area in the interior of the distribution around its type locality, and another on a more widespread area on the coastal portion of its distribution. There is a possibility that the coastal form represents a distinct undescribed species, as it has differences in cranial measures and shorter forearms than the form found in the type locality, in the interior portion of the distribution.The aim of this study is to create minimum quantitative data necessary to assess the conservation status of L. bokermanni using the IUCN criteria. Having in mind all the taxonomic uncertainty, all analisys were made using three datasets: i) all records represent a single species, ii) records from interior form only, assuming it represents L. bokermanni, and iii) records from coastal form only, assuming it represents a new species, yet undescribed. Priority areas for the search of new populations of L. bokermanni were identified using geographic distribution models. These areas present suitable climatic and altitudinal conditions, forest cover, few bat surveys and they are outside of known range of occurrence. We also report the results of the search for new population in 3 priority areas, south to the known range of occurrence of the species. The occupancy and detectability were modeled at the local and regional scale, using environmental and methodological covariates to explain the the observed patterns. The uncertainty about the known distribution was assessed and the minimum sampling effort to be sure of the absence of L. bokermanni in anarea was estimated. To assess L. bokermannis conservation status we calculated de Extent of Occurrence (sensu IUCN) and discussed the present knowledge about the species and the possible outcomes of taxonomic changes to its conservation status.

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico / Lonchophylla bokermanniSazima, Vizotto & Taddei, 1978 é uma espécie de morcego nectarívoro de médio porte endêmica do sudeste brasileiro. Pouco se sabe sobre sua biologia e distribuição geográfica, e por isso mesmo é classificada pela União para Conservação da Natureza (IUCN) como Deficiente de Dados. Está, no entanto, na lista brasileira da fauna ameaçada de extinção, sendo considerada Vulnerável por apresentar distribuição restrita, populações pequenas e isoladas, e estar vivenciando uma rápida destruição de seus habitats.Uma das mais importantes lacunas no conhecimento sobre L. bokermanni é o seu padrão de distribuição geográfica. Esta espécie possui uma distribuição disjunta, com uma forma na porção interior de sua distribuição, restrita aos arredores de sua localidade tipo, e uma forma com uma distribuição mais ampla, entre a Serra do Mar e o litoral. Existe a possibilidade de que a forma costeira possa corresponder a uma espécie ainda não descrita, visto que possui antebraços menores e algumas medidas cranianasdiferentes em relação a forma do interior.Nesta dissertação procuro gerar dados quantitativos mínimos necessários para determinar o status de conservação de L. bokermanni segundo os critérios da IUCN. Tendo em vista as incertezas taxonômicas, sempre que possível as análises foram feitas com três conjuntos de dados: i) todos os registros de ocorrência, assumindo que representam uma única espécie, ii) apenas com os dados da forma do interior, assumindo que representam L. bokermanni, e iii) apenas com os dados da forma costeira, assumindo que representam uma nova espécie. No primeiro capítulo foram identificadas áreas prioritárias para a busca de novas populações de L. bokermanni Essas áreas apresentam as condições climáticas e altitudinais típicas para a espécie, mantêm sua cobertura florestal, têm poucos inventários de quirópteros e estão fora da área de distribuição conhecida da espécie. O capítulo também apresenta o resultado da busca em campo por novas populações da espécie em três destas áreas prioritárias, ao sul da distribuição conhecida. No segundo capítulo a probabilidade de detecção e ocupação de Lonchophylla bokermanni foi modelada em escala regional e local, utilizando covariáveis ambientais e metodológicas que podem explicar os padrões encontrados. O grau de incerteza na distribuição conhecida da espécie foi avaliado, e estimou-se o esforço mínimo necessário para termos confiançana ausência da espécie em uma localidade. No terceiro capítulo a informação apresentada nos capítulos anteriores foi utilizada para determinar o status de conservação de L. bokermanni (segundo o critério de Extensão de Ocorrência da IUCN), discutir o estado atual de conhecimento sobre a espécie e as consequências de possíveis mudanças taxonômicas para seu status de conservação. / Lonchophylla bokermanni Sazima, Vizotto & Taddei, 1978 is a medium sized nectar-feeding bat endemic to forested areas in southeastern Brazil.In the Brazilian Threatened Species List it is assigned as Vulnerable to extinction because it has a restricted distribution, small and isolated populations, and its habitat is being lost at a very fast rate. The species was recorded in few localities, however, and little is known about its biology. Because not enough information is available to assess the species distribution, which may be widespread or restricted, L. bokermanni is listed as Data Deficient by the IUCN.One of the largest knowledge gaps for Lonchophyllabokermanni is the pattern of its geographic distribution. As currently defined the species has a disjunct distribution, with one form occurring in a restricted area in the interior of the distribution around its type locality, and another on a more widespread area on the coastal portion of its distribution. There is a possibility that the coastal form represents a distinct undescribed species, as it has differences in cranial measures and shorter forearms than the form found in the type locality, in the interior portion of the distribution.The aim of this study is to create minimum quantitative data necessary to assess the conservation status of L. bokermanni using the IUCN criteria. Having in mind all the taxonomic uncertainty, all analisys were made using three datasets: i) all records represent a single species, ii) records from interior form only, assuming it represents L. bokermanni, and iii) records from coastal form only, assuming it represents a new species, yet undescribed. Priority areas for the search of new populations of L. bokermanni were identified using geographic distribution models. These areas present suitable climatic and altitudinal conditions, forest cover, few bat surveys and they are outside of known range of occurrence. We also report the results of the search for new population in 3 priority areas, south to the known range of occurrence of the species. The occupancy and detectability were modeled at the local and regional scale, using environmental and methodological covariates to explain the the observed patterns. The uncertainty about the known distribution was assessed and the minimum sampling effort to be sure of the absence of L. bokermanni in anarea was estimated. To assess L. bokermannis conservation status we calculated de Extent of Occurrence (sensu IUCN) and discussed the present knowledge about the species and the possible outcomes of taxonomic changes to its conservation status.

Le contrôle non destructif par ondes guidées générées et détectées par des transducteurs ultrasonores à couplage par air, présente deux avantages majeurs. Le premier réside dans la capacité des ondes guidées à transporter l’information sur la qualité du milieu sur une grande distance. De plus, l’absence d’un milieu de couplage liquide entre les capteurs et le milieu à tester, rend le contrôle plus commode. Ce travail consiste d’abord à développer un procédé de simulation numérique qui prend en considération de nombreux paramètres du système de contrôle. Dans une optique de réduire le nombre de degrés de liberté, un modèle hybride a été développé qui consiste en une combinaison entre un modèle analytique basé sur l’intégrale de Kirchhoff pour la propagation des ultrasons dans l’air et un modèle éléments finis de la propagation des ondes guidées dans le matériau. La mesure des caractéristiques du transducteur à couplage par air (efficacité de l’émetteur et sensibilité du récepteur) permet, d’une part, de calculer la valeur exacte de la pression dans l’air et les valeurs exactes des champs de contraintes et de déplacements dans la structure, pour une tension et une fréquence d’excitation, et d’autre part, de remonter à la tension électrique aux bornes de ce récepteur pour une pression rayonnée par le matériau. Par suite, cette caractérisation rend possible la comparaison entre les prédictions numériques de la réponse (en niveau de tension) du système et les mesures expérimentales correspondantes. A la lumière du modèle numérique développé, une optimisation des paramètres du système de contrôle (angle, fréquence,diamètre, direction de propagation, champ proche et champ lointain) a été effectuée pour améliorer la pureté des modes guidés par le matériau. Une manipulation expérimentale, basée sur un transducteur à couplage par air pour l’émission et une sonde laser pour la réception, a été alors mise en place pour valider quelques prédictions numériques. Ensuite, on a étudié l’interaction des ondes guidées ultrasonores avec des défauts de type délaminage enfouis dans une plaque composite à symétrie quadratique. Pour cela, on a analysé la sensibilité des deux modes fondamentaux A0 et S0 au délaminage en terme de détectabilité. En parallèle, on a traité un problème inverse qui consiste à dimensionner un délaminage par le calcul du spectre fréquentiel du coefficient de réflexion. Enfin, on a mis en évidence le potentiel des transducteurs à couplage par air à ausculter des pièces aéronautiques impactées. / Non-destructive testing (NDT) using guided waves generated and detected by air-coupled ultrasonic transducers have two main advantages. First, this non-contact technique without coupled medium allows obvious convenience of use. Moreover, the ability of guided waves to carry information about medium quality over long distance. In this context, a numerical model has been developed, which takes into account many parameters of the control system. In order to reduce the number of degrees of freedom, a hybrid model has been developed which consists of a combination between an analytical model, based on the Kirchhoff integral for the propagation of ultrasound in air and a finite element model for the propagation of guided waves in the material. The measured characteristics (efficiency and sensitivity) of two air-coupled transducers allow the prediction of the accurate values of the pressure of bulk waves generated in air and the measurement of the pressure of the radiated field in air by guided waves propagating in a structure. This process enables the comparison between predicted and measured guided waves modes. Based on the hybrid model, an optimization of the parameters of the control system (angle, frequency, diameter, direction of propagation, near and far field) was performed to improve the purity of guided modes along the material plate. To validate some numerical predictions, an aircoupled ultrasonic transducer is used and oriented at a specific angle chosen for generating one specific Lambmode guided along a composite plate sample, and a laser probe measures the normal velocity at different locations on the surface of the plate. Then, the interaction of ultrasonic guided waves with delamination in acomposite plate was studied. In particular, the sensitivity of the two fundamental modes A0 and S0 was analyzed in order to predict the detectability of the defect. In parallel, the inverse problem is solved and the defect size is quantified by calculating the spectrum of the reflection coefficient. Finally, the potential of air-coupled transducers to examine an aircraft structure, has been demonstrated.

Neste trabalho estudamos a estabilidade assintótica de Lagrange para duas classes de sistemas, sob as hipóteses de detetabilidade fraca e de limitação do custo medio a longo prazo. Para sistemas lineares com saltos markovianos com rudo aditivo, a equivalência entre estabilidade e as condições mencionadas sera provada. Para sistemas dinâmicos generalizados, provaremos a estabilidade sob uma condição adicional / In this work we study Lagrange asymptotic stability for two classes of systems, under conditions of weak detectability and boundedness of the long run average cost. For Markov jump linear systems with additive noise, the equivalence between stability and the aforementioned conditions is proved. For generalized dynamical systems, we prove stability under an additional condition

Machine learning models are vulnerable to adversarial attacks that add perturbations to the input data. Here we model and simulate power flow in a power grid test case and generate adversarial attacks for these measurements in three different ways. This is to compare the effect of attacks of different sizes constructed using various levels of knowledge of the model to see how this affects how often the attacks are detected. The three methods being one where the attacker has full knowledge of model, one where the attacker only has access to the measurements of the model, and the third method where the attacker has no knowledge of the model. By comparing these methods through how often they are detected by a residual-based detection scheme, one can argue that a data-driven attack only knowing the measurements is enough to add an error without being detected by the detection scheme. Using a linearized version of a state estimation is shown to be insufficient for generating attacks with full knowledge of the system, and further research is needed to compare the performance of the full knowledge attacks and the data-driven attacks. The attacks generated without knowledge of the system perform poorly and are easily detected.

Detaillierte Informationen über die Verbreitungsareale von Arten sind essentiell für die Beantwortung zentraler Fragen der Ökologie, Evolutionsbiologie und Biogeographie. Solche Informationen sind auch notwendig, um Naturschutzressourcen kostenwirksam zwischen verschiedenen Regionen und Maßnahmen zu verteilen. Unser Wissen über Artverbreitungen beruht vor allem auf Punktdaten, die das Vorkommen einer bestimmten Art an einem bestimmten Ort zu einem bestimmten Zeitpunkt belegen (nachstehend „Records“). Riesige Mengen solcher Records wurden über internationale Data-Sharing-Netzwerke mobilisiert, allen voran durch die Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF). Auch wenn diese Netzwerke die Zugänglichkeit zu solchen Informationen enorm verbessert haben, ist unser Wissen über globale Artverbreitungen immer noch äußerst lückenhaft und von grober räumlicher Auflösung – der sogenannte Wallace’sche Wissensrückstand. Vorhandene Informationen enthalten zudem zahlreiche Unsicherheiten, Fehler und Daten-‘Biases’. Diese könnten durch Ort-spezifische Faktoren wie Zugänglichkeit oder durch artspezifische Faktoren, wie Entdeckungswahrscheinlichkeit, verursacht werden. Zukünftiges Sammeln und Mobilisieren von Informationen sollte so gestaltet werden, dass der erreichte Nutzen der Records für Forschung und Naturschutz maximiert wird. Hierfür ist ein tiefgehendes Verständnis der Lücken, Unsicherheiten und Biases in den Informationen sowie der sie verursachenden Faktoren notwendig. Bisher wurden diese Mängel in globalen Artverbreitungsinformationen niemals quantitativ untersucht. Mit meiner Dissertation liefere ich die ersten globalen Analysen zu Mängeln von digital verfügbaren Verbreitungsinformationen für terrestrische Wirbeltiere und Landpflanzen. Ich habe >300 Millionen Records für Landpflanzen und drei Gruppen terrestrischer Wirbeltiere (Amphibien, Säugetiere, Vögel) über GBIF abgerufen. Diese Informationen habe ich mit taxonomischen Datenbanken sowie unabhängigen Verbreitungskarten und Checklisten verbunden. Auf Grundlage der erstellten Datensätze habe ich unterschiedliche Formen von Informations-Mängeln für verschiedene taxonomische Gruppen und auf mehreren räumlichen Maßstäben untersucht. In Kapitel I habe Daten-Abdeckung sowie Daten-Unsicherheiten in Informationen zu Pflanzenvorkommen jeweils in Bezug auf Taxonomie, Raum und Zeit quantifiziert. Für diese insgesamt 6 Maße habe in anschließend Variation in den drei Dimensionen (Taxonomie, Raum, Zeit) gemessen. Zudem habe ich mithilfe von paarweisen Spearman-Rang-Korrelationen und Hauptkomponentenanalysen die Zusammenhänge zwischen diesen verschiedenen Formen von Informationsmängeln analysiert. In Kapitel II habe ich anhand von terrestrischen Wirbeltieren zwei spezielle Aspekte von Datenabdeckung zwischen geographischen Regionen verglichen: i) die Datendichte und ii) die Vollständigkeit der abgedeckten Arten. Durch Multi-Modell-Analysen habe ich die Effekte von zwölf potentiellen sozioökonomischen Einflussfaktoren auf Informationsmängel verglichen, und zwar einzeln für jede der drei Wirbeltiergruppen auf jeder von vier verschiedenen räumlichen Auflösungen. In Kapitel III habe ich anhand von Säugetieren drei Aspekte von Datenabdeckung zwischen einzelnen Arten verglichen: i) die Anzahl von Records pro Art, ii) die räumliche Abdeckung der Verbreitungsareale durch Records, und iii) den räumlichen Bias in der Abdeckung verschiedener Teile der Verbreitungsareale. Durch Multi-Modell-Analysen und Variations-Partitionierung habe ich die Effekte von verschiedenen Artmerkmalen, Größe und Form der Verbreitungsareale sowie von sozioökonomischen Faktoren untersucht. Diese Analysen habe ich auf globalem Maßstab sowie einzeln für sechs zoogeographische Gebiete durchgeführt. In meiner Dissertation habe ich in allen untersuchten Aspekten von Artverbreitungsinformationen starke Biases gefunden. Die Anzahl von Records variierte um mehrere Größenordnungen zwischen Arten und zwischen geographischen Gebieten. Verschiedene Maße von Datenabdeckung und Datenunsicherheiten zeigten klare taxonomische, geographische und zeitliche Muster. Ich fand beispielsweise Höchstwerte von taxonomischer Abdeckung in industrialisierten westlichen Ländern, aber auch in einigen tropischen Gebieten wie Mexiko. Im Gegensatz dazu gab es in weiten Teilen Afrikas und Asiens entweder gar keine oder nur sehr veraltete Informationen. Da taxonomische, räumliche und zeitliche Abdeckung jeweils durch die Anzahl der Records numerisch eingeschränkt sind, fand ich zwischen diesen Maßen gemäßigte bis starke positive Korrelationen. Maße von Datenunsicherheiten hingegen korrelierten kaum untereinander oder mit Datenabdeckungsmaßen. In Kapitel II habe ich den Einfluss von zwölf potentiellen sozioökonomischen Einflussfaktoren auf Datendichte und Datenvollständigkeit von geographischen Artgemeinschaften untersucht. Nur vier hatten einen durchweg für alle untersuchten Wirbeltiergruppen und räumlichen Auflösungen starken Einfluss. Dies waren der Endemitenreichtum, die räumliche Nähe zu Daten-beisteuernden Institutionen, politische Mitgliedschaft im GBIF-Netzwerk, sowie lokal verfügbare Forschungsgelder. Andere Faktoren, von denen man oft annimmt, dass sie eine große Rolle spielen würden, hatten einen erstaunlich geringen Einfluss, wie z.B. Verkehrsinfrastruktur oder Größe und Finanzausstattungen westlicher Daten-beisteuernder Institutionen. Meine Analysen in Kapitel III ergaben, dass die vier in Kapitel II identifizierten sozioökonomischen Schlüsselfaktoren ebenfalls einen starken Einfluss auf Artverbreitungsinformationen auf der Ebene von einzelnen Arten hatten. Jedoch unterschied sich ihre relative Wichtigkeit deutlich zwischen geographischen Gebieten. Zwischenartliche Unterschiede in Verbreitungsinformationen waren zudem sehr stark durch Größe und Form der Verbreitungsareale beeinflusst. Dies unterstützt meine Hypothese, dass diese geometrischen Faktoren die Wahrscheinlichkeit beeinflussen, dass sich Verbreitungsgebiete bestimmter Arten mit Untersuchungsgebieten von Feldforschern überschneiden, was wiederum Aufswirkungen auf die Wahrscheinlichkeiten hat, mit denen diese Arten besammelt werden. Entgegen unserer Annahmen hatten Artmerkmale wie etwa Nachtaktivität, die das Entdecken oder Sammeln bestimmter Arten wahrscheinlich machen sollten, kaum einen Einfluss auf zwischenartliche Unterschiede in Verbreitungsinformationen. Die Ergebnisse meiner Dissertation lassen wichtige Schlussfolgerungen darüber zu, wie mobilisierte Artverbreitungsinformationen effizient genutzt und verbessert werden können. Erstens belegen meine Ergebnisse schwerwiegende Mängel in digital verfügbaren Artverbreitungsinformationen, insbesondere für Gebiete und Arten von besonderer Wichtigkeit für den Naturschutz. Zweitens zeigen sie, dass für die allermeisten Arten feiner aufgelöste Informationen nur durch Artverbreitungsmodelle erreicht werden können, die mit geringen Datenmengen auskommen, die starke Datenunsicherheiten und Biases innehaben. Eine vielversprechende Methode, um in solchen Modellen mit Biases umzugeben, ist das explizite Einbeziehen der Bias-verursachenden Faktoren in die Modelle, und meine Ergebnisse bieten hilfreiche Anhaltspunkte für die Auswahl relevanter Faktoren. Drittens schaffen meine Ergebnisse eine empirische Grundlage zur Überwachung von Fortschritten in der Verbesserung weltweiter Artverbreitungsinformationen. Schließlich schafft mein Identifizieren der global wichtigsten Informations-limitierenden Faktoren sowie das Unterscheiden verschiedener Informationsaspekte eine Grundlage dafür, um Aktivitäten zu identifizieren, die Datenmängel effektiv beheben können. Als wichtigste Aktivitäten empfehle ich unter anderem i) das Unterstützen von Bemühungen zur Datenmobilisierung in Institutionen, die in geographischer Nähe zu datenarmen Gebieten liegen, ii) das Fördern von Kooperation zwischen großen Schwellenländern und Data-Sharing-Netzwerken, iii) die Durchführung von neuen Biodiversitäts-Surveys im zentralen Afrika und südlichen Asien, um weitgehend veraltete Informationen zu aktualisieren, und iv) das Verschieben des Fokus von Datensammel- und Datenmobilisierungsbemühungen auf Asien sowie Arten mit begrenzten Verbreitungsarealen.

科学研究費補助金 研究種目:試験研究(B)(1) 課題番号:05555158 研究代表者:谷川 恭雄 研究期間:1993-1994年度