This study initially presents historical trends in both the capitalized value and market value of farmland in the eight states comprising the Corn Belt and Lake States production regions as defined by the USDA. An econometric analysis of annual real cash rents per acre prior to determining the capitalized value of farmland in the eight states is then conducted. Two distributed lag models were hypothesized. The comparison of regression results of these two distributed lag models indicates that current year real cash rent can be best explained by current year real net farm income, lagged real net farm income over a period of years, and real cash rent in the previous year. A spreadsheet simulation model is used to project capitalized farmland values in each state as well as regional averages over the 2012-2015 period. These projections reflect alternative assumptions regarding future trends in real net farm income at the state level as well as the rate on 10-year constant maturity U.S. government bonds to assess the potential sensitivity of capitalized farmland values under adverse economic conditions. The projected trends in capitalized farmland values under two alternative stress scenarios reflecting higher interest rates levels and lower net farm income levels indicates that capitalized farmland values are particularly sensitive to interest rate fluctuations since cash rent expectations of landlords are based on current and lagged historical profit performance.

The semiarid regions of Ethiopia are exposed to anthropogenic and natural calamities. In this study, we assessed the relationship between Tropical Applications of Meteorology using Satellite data (TAMSAT) and MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data for the period 2000 to 2014 on decadal and annual basis using multivariate distributed lag (DL) models. Decadal growing season (June to September) values for kaftahumera were calculated from MODIS NDVI data. The growing season NDVI values are highly correlated with the precipitations during the whole study period. A lag of up to 30 days observed in most parts of our study region in which the rainfall has effects on vegetation growth after 40 days. The lag-time effects vary with the distribution of land use types and seasons. A lower correlation was observed in the woodland regions where significant deforestation occurred due to expansion of croplands. The loss in vegetation contributed to the low biomass production attributable to extended loss in vegetation cover.

Thesis (M.M. (Finance & Investment))--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, Graduate School of Business Administration, 2014. / Dornbusch’s exchange rate overshooting hypothesis has guided monetary policy conduct for many years though empirical evidence on its validity is mixed. This study re-examines the validity of the overshooting hypothesis by using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) procedure. Specifically, the study investigates whether the overshooting hypothesis holds for the United States Dollar/Zambian Kwacha (USD-ZMK) exchange rate. In addition, the study tests if there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between the USD-ZMK exchange rate and the macroeconomic fundamentals (money supply, real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), interest rates and inflation rates). The study uses monthly nominal USD/ZMK exchange rates and monetary fundamentals data from January 2000 to December 2012. The study finds no evidence of exchange rate overshooting. The result also show that there is no long run equilibrium relationship between the exchange rate and the differentials of macroeconomic fundamentals. The implication is that macroeconomic fundamentals are insignificant in determining the exchange rate fluctuations in the long run. This finding is inconsistent with the monetary model of exchange rate determination, which asserts that there is a long-run relationship between the exchange rate and macroeconomic fundamentals.

Pollution studies have sought to understand the relationships between adverse health effects and harmful exposures. Many environmental health studies are predicated on the idea that each exposure has both acute and long term health effects that need to be accurately mapped. Considerable work has been done linking air pollution to deleterious health outcomes but the underlying biological pathways and contributing sources remain difficult to identify. There are many statistical issues that arise in the exploration of these longitudinal study designs such as understanding pathways of effects, addressing missing data, and assessing the health effects of multipollutant mixtures. To this end this dissertation aims to address the afore mentioned statistical issues. Our first contribution investigates the mechanistic pathways between air pollutants and measures of cardiac electrical instability. The methods from chapter 1 propose a path analysis that would allow for the estimation of health effects according to multiple paths using structural equation models. Our second contribution recognizes that panel studies suffer from attrition over time and the loss of data can affect the analysis. Methods from Chapter 2 extend current regression calibration approaches by imputing missing data through the use of moving averages and assumed correlation structures. Our last contribution explores the use of factor analysis and two-stage hierarchical regression which are two commonly used approaches in the analysis of multipollutant mixtures. The methods from Chapter 3 attempt to compare the performance of these two existing methodologies for estimating health effects from multipollutant sources.

The repo rate, which is the key interest rate, set by the central banks has been declining for many years and hitting zero in Sweden in late 2014. We analyse the effectiveness on the economy from a change in the repo rate, comparing two time periods with high and low repo rate environments. We use quarterly data on GDP and its components, between 1994 and 2019. For analysing the effectiveness, we use multiple Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modelling to compute a total of 12 models. In our findings, we saw that the effectiveness of a change in repo rate has been increased in the low repo rate environment, making it harder to increase the rate without harming the economy but also increasing the effect of a decrease in the repo rate. Also, we found that the investment component of GDP may exhibit extra high effectiveness in the low repo rate environment. This method of analysing the repo rates impact on the economy could be used for decision makers regarding monetary policies.

This study empirically examines the relationship between financial development and economic growth in Nigeria. It employs statistical techniques such as the Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach as well as a short and long run Granger Causality test on time series data spanning from 1960-2016. Empirical results reveal that the financial development indicators have a long run relationship with economic growth in Nigeria and the existence of unidirectional and bidirectional Granger causality was also discovered. This study recommends that policy should be geared towards promoting financial development in the country as well as encouraging more financial depth and openness – in order to foster economic growth in Nigeria.

This study aims to identify the effects of oil income on economic growth in Iran over the period 1955-2014. The empirical literature indicates that countries with natural resources are growing more slowly than their counterparts. However, the results from this literature are far from conclusive, particularly in regard to the role played by oil-rich countries. Needless to say, this role depends on other factors as well, including the political situation in the country, the quality of institutions, and the efficacy of the financial system. Some empirical research has found that natural resources, particularly oil, can have a positive impact on the output of a country. although natural resources are not a factor of production in growth theories, studies have used different growth frameworks in order to discover whether having natural resources is a blessing or a curse. In line with recent studies, this work uses an augmented neoclassical growth model to develop a theoretical framework where oil enters the long-term output of the country through saving and investment. Overall, the results suggests that oil income has a positive impact on the level of output per capita in Iran. The findings of the econometric results are in line with the historical analysis of the study. Since different methods and proxies were used, a total of eight models were estimated. Interestingly, when PRIVY is used as an index of financial development, the result of the study changes and oil no longer has a significant impact on the economy. However, this can be translated to an inefficient allocation of credit to the private sector.

This thesis aims to investigate the impact of state fragility on capital inflows and economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1980-2015. In line with existing studies, it adopts an augmented neoclassical growth model where capital is divided into domestic and foreign capital inflows (FDI, ODA and Remittances). Using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to co-integration, significant long-run relationship was confirmed between state fragility, capital flows and economic growth. The results reveal domestic capital to be very significant and contribute positively to economic growth. Similarly it was observed that remittances remain a very crucial form of capital flow to Nigeria and that the presence of state fragility makes it more significant. For ODA a positive contribution to economic growth was observed, however, the presence of state fragility renders it insignificant. In the case of FDI, the study found a negative relationship between FDI and economic growth albeit insignificant. However, the presence of state fragility makes it significant but still negative. A negative relationship was also observed between state fragility and economic growth. These findings, implies that while the issue of state fragility needs to be addressed and concerted efforts put into building state resilience, not just for the direct impact of state fragility on the economy, but also its impact on the economy through other channels such as capital flows.

Foreign trade is increasingly becoming a powerful tool when it comes to the promotion of economic growth in modern economies. This is especially so in the face of the continued rise of globalisation. In consideration of this fact, this thesis assessed the impact of foreign trade on the growth process of Namibia’s economy for the period stretching from 1990 to 2012. This main objective was further developed into primary, theoretical and empirical objectives. In order to realise these multiple objectives, two modern econometric time series techniques were employed, namely vector autoregressive (VAR) and auto-regression distributed lag (ARDL) models. Based on these two techniques, the following procedures featured during the study: Stationary tests, error correction modelling, co-integration tests, Granger causality tests, generalised impulse response functions and generalised forecast error variance decomposition. The following constitutes the main findings arising from this study: First, the study found that there is a positive relationship among the variables that were investigated. Indeed, this positive relationship suggests that the economy of Namibia can be expanded potentially by means of foreign trade. The result is also in line with economic theory. Secondly, the empirical findings also show that export, foreign direct investment and exchange rate endogenously respond to shocks in economic growth. Thirdly, economic growth itself accounted for most of the innovations that occurred during the period under consideration concerning economic growth. Fourthly, amongst the three explanatory variables used in the model, exports and foreign direct investment contributed more towards innovations in economic growth during the forecast period. Initially, exports and foreign direct investment dominated over the forecast horizon with each contributing almost an equal share of over 5 percent after 12 quarters. Thereafter, exports’ contribution relatively exceeded that of foreign direct investment. Fifthly, it is particularly important to note that the exchange rate variable made the weakest contribution towards explaining economic growth for the forecast period of 24 quarters. In consideration of the general constraints associated with this study, the thesis puts forward a number of proposals for possible further investigation by any theorist who is keen about probing the issue that the thesis investigated. The thesis considers the following as its significant contributions to the existing literature: First, this study primarily examined the relationship between exports and economic growth. By adding the effect of foreign direct investment and exchange rate to the analysis, this study became more comprehensive. This further widens the scope for policymaking for Namibia, as well as other developing economies on a similar route. Secondly, the study employed two modern econometric time series techniques, namely VAR and ARDL models in investigating the research topic under consideration. Most of the related studies that were reviewed either utilised ordinary least squares (OLS) or VAR or ARDL approach on its own. By implication, the results obtained from this study, therefore, are from a technical point of view more robust. Thirdly, through constructive comments, this thesis made valuable contributions to the relevant empirical literature as reviewed during the course of the study. Fourthly, since this study has a focus on Namibia, it provided the opportunity for the thesis to present a comprehensive analysis on issues pertaining to Namibia specifically. Lastly, the various recommendations put forward by this thesis will assist Namibia, as well as other developing countries, on a related path when it comes to formulating policies for the promotion of exports in particular and economic growth in general. / PhD (Economics)--North-West University, Vaal Triangle Campus, 2015.

Foreign trade is increasingly becoming a powerful tool when it comes to the promotion of economic growth in modern economies. This is especially so in the face of the continued rise of globalisation. In consideration of this fact, this thesis assessed the impact of foreign trade on the growth process of Namibia’s economy for the period stretching from 1990 to 2012. This main objective was further developed into primary, theoretical and empirical objectives. In order to realise these multiple objectives, two modern econometric time series techniques were employed, namely vector autoregressive (VAR) and auto-regression distributed lag (ARDL) models. Based on these two techniques, the following procedures featured during the study: Stationary tests, error correction modelling, co-integration tests, Granger causality tests, generalised impulse response functions and generalised forecast error variance decomposition. The following constitutes the main findings arising from this study: First, the study found that there is a positive relationship among the variables that were investigated. Indeed, this positive relationship suggests that the economy of Namibia can be expanded potentially by means of foreign trade. The result is also in line with economic theory. Secondly, the empirical findings also show that export, foreign direct investment and exchange rate endogenously respond to shocks in economic growth. Thirdly, economic growth itself accounted for most of the innovations that occurred during the period under consideration concerning economic growth. Fourthly, amongst the three explanatory variables used in the model, exports and foreign direct investment contributed more towards innovations in economic growth during the forecast period. Initially, exports and foreign direct investment dominated over the forecast horizon with each contributing almost an equal share of over 5 percent after 12 quarters. Thereafter, exports’ contribution relatively exceeded that of foreign direct investment. Fifthly, it is particularly important to note that the exchange rate variable made the weakest contribution towards explaining economic growth for the forecast period of 24 quarters. In consideration of the general constraints associated with this study, the thesis puts forward a number of proposals for possible further investigation by any theorist who is keen about probing the issue that the thesis investigated. The thesis considers the following as its significant contributions to the existing literature: First, this study primarily examined the relationship between exports and economic growth. By adding the effect of foreign direct investment and exchange rate to the analysis, this study became more comprehensive. This further widens the scope for policymaking for Namibia, as well as other developing economies on a similar route. Secondly, the study employed two modern econometric time series techniques, namely VAR and ARDL models in investigating the research topic under consideration. Most of the related studies that were reviewed either utilised ordinary least squares (OLS) or VAR or ARDL approach on its own. By implication, the results obtained from this study, therefore, are from a technical point of view more robust. Thirdly, through constructive comments, this thesis made valuable contributions to the relevant empirical literature as reviewed during the course of the study. Fourthly, since this study has a focus on Namibia, it provided the opportunity for the thesis to present a comprehensive analysis on issues pertaining to Namibia specifically. Lastly, the various recommendations put forward by this thesis will assist Namibia, as well as other developing countries, on a related path when it comes to formulating policies for the promotion of exports in particular and economic growth in general. / PhD (Economics)--North-West University, Vaal Triangle Campus, 2015.