The recent empirical literature has shown that the dynamic generating mechanism of macroeconomic variables can be asymmetric. Inspiring from these empirical results, this thesis uses a class of nonlinear models called smooth transition autoregressive models to investigate possible asymmetric dynamics in inflation and nominal exchange rate series of Turkey. Estimation results imply that variables under consideration contain strong nonlinearities and these can be modeled by STAR models.

This paper empirically investigates the propagation of business sentiment within the European Union (EU) and adds to the literature on shock absorption via a common market's real economy. To this end, we combine EU-wide official business sentiment indicators with world input-output (IO) data and information on indirect wage costs. Econometrically, we model interdependencies in economic activities via IO-linkages and apply space-time models. The resulting evidence provides indication for the existence of substantial spillovers in business sentiment formation. Accordingly, and highlighted by the estimated impacts of changes in indirect labor costs, policy reforms aiming at increasing the resilience of the European single market need to take these spillovers into account in order to increase its effectiveness. / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

This thesis examines the relationship between working capital efficiency and firm profitability, and how this relationship is affected by economic fluctuations. In the existing literature, the relationship between working capital efficiency and firm profitability has been extensively researched. However, the impact of economic fluctuations on the relationship between working capital efficiency and firm profitability is sparsely researched. To the best of our knowledge, only Enqvist, Graham and Nikkinen (2014) have addressed the impact ofeconomic fluctuations on the relationship between working capital efficiency and firm profitability. This thesis is a replication of their study in another geographical setting, another time period and studying different types of firms. Using a sample of 2,589 firm-year observations of listed Swedish firms for the years 2000-2015, this thesis conducts multiple regression analysis to examine the relationship between working capital efficiency and firm profitability. The findings of this thesis propose that firms can enhance profitability by improving their working capital efficiency. However, the relationship between working capital efficiency and firm profitability does not appear to be significantly affected by economic fluctuations. This thesis contributes to the existing literature by further strengthening the understanding of the relationship between working capital efficiency and firm profitability. In addition, it also adds to the existing literature on the relationship between working capital efficiency and firm profitability in a Swedish context.

Popularity of nonlinear threshold models and unit root tests has increased after the recent empirical studies concerning the effects of business cycles on macroeconomic data. These studies have shown that an economic variable may react differently in response to downturns and recoveries in a business cycle. Inspiring from empirical results, this thesis investigates dynamics of Turkish key macroeconomic data, namely capacity utilization rate, growth of import and export volume indices, growth of gross domestic product, interest rate for cash loans in Turkish Liras and growth of industrial production index. Estimation results imply that capacity utilization rate and growth of industrial production index show M-TAR type nonlinear stationary behavior according to the unit root test proposed by Enders and Granger (1998).

From the 1970s onwards, it is argued that central banks should be independent from politicians since the latter have an interest in seeking populist interventions to the conduct of the monetary policy. Additionally, it is often maintained that the sole aim of a central bank should be to seek price stability. Despite the seemingly neutral and objective tone of these arguments, central bank independence can find its meaning as a part of Neoliberalism, which restructured the economic administration of the state. The main objective of this thesis is to analyse the notion of central bank independence and the case of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in a multidisciplinary manner, in order to reveal its political and administrative implications.

Until very recently, most emerging market economies have achieved higher growth rates for the last decade. It is controversial whether this good economic environment is due to domestic reforms or due to favorable external factors. In this framework, the main aim of this study is to investigate the structure and sources of business cycles in emerging market economies and to determine how these cycles differ than those in developed countries. The role of external and domestic factors on business cycles are analyzed by applying not only the conventional panel data estimations but also common correlated effects panel mean group method which is introduced by Peseran (2006). Besides, the convergence of business cycles in emerging market economies to the business cycles in developed countries is discussed based on factor analysis. The major results indicate the common global factors are the leading source of the business cycles both in emerging market economies and developed countries. However, domestic determinants of fluctuations differ across two groups of countries. In addition, results show that in the last two decades fluctuations in emerging market economies have started to be more dependent on the fluctuations in developed countries.

Cette thèse s'articule autour de trois chapitres en économie de l'innovation et de la science. Pour ce faire, elle développe des modèles empiriques et théoriques pour analyser l'innovation technologique et scientifique et produire des recommandations politiques. Le premier chapitre utilise l'apprentissage automatique et les sciences de données pour construire un indicateur de l'innovation technologique. À l'aide d'une base de données unique sur les brevets au Canada, nous construisons un indice de qualité des brevets pour répondre à deux questions principales : l'absence d'une base de données systématique sur les brevets et leur valeur au Canada ainsi que l'évaluation du secteur pharmaceutique, l'un des principaux secteurs leaders de l'innovation au Canada . Les résultats révèlent que notre indice de qualité est lié à la performance économique des entreprises, à leur productivité et à la productivité agrégée. Le deuxième chapitre examine les innovations dans la recherche universitaire. Plus précisément, se focalisant sur les sciences économiques, ce chapitre vise à relier l'innovation et les inégalités en analysant la reconnaissance des idées des femmes. Des données bibliométriques issues de la recherche en économie sont utilisées pour étudier les biais de genre dans les citations. Sur la base des techniques d'apprentissage profond, on peut (1) établir les similitudes entre les articles (2) établir un lien entre les articles en identifiant les articles qui citent, les articles cités et les articles qui devraient être cités. Cette étude révèle qu'en moyenne, les articles qui ne sont pas cités sont 20% plus susceptibles d'être écrits par des femmes que par des hommes. Ce biais d'omission est plus répandu lorsqu'il n'y a que des hommes dans l'article citant. Dans l'ensemble, pour avoir le même niveau de citation que les articles rédigés par des hommes, les articles rédigés par des femmes doivent être supérieurs de 20 centiles dans la distribution du degré d'innovation de l'article. Enfin, le dernier chapitre analyse l'innovation dans une perspective plus macroéconomique, en se concentrant sur les entrepreneurs. En effet, les entrepreneurs sont au cœur du développement économique et de l'innovation. Cependant, l'activité entrepreneurial reste très risquée. Quelles sont donc les opportunités de diversification des risques d'investissement pour les entrepreneurs ? Pour répondre à cette question, nous étudions le rôle de l'intégration financière. Avec un modèle théorique en temps continu et avec des agents hétérogènes, nous montrons que l'ouverture financière produit des gains de bien-être substantiels pour les entrepreneurs et peut donc les aider à diversifier le risque d'investissement. Nos résultats sont également étayés par une analyse empirique. / This thesis is organized into three chapters in the economics of innovation and science. In doing so, it develops empirical and theoretical models to analyze technological and scientific innovation and produce policy recommendations. The first chapter uses data science and big data techniques to build an indicator of technological innovation. Using a unique database on patents in Canada, we build a patent quality index to answer two main questions: the absence of a systematic database on patents and their value in Canada and the evaluation of the pharmaceutical sector, one of the leading innovating sectors in Canada. The results reveal that our quality index is linked to the economic performance of firms, their productivity, and aggregate productivity. The second chapter looks at innovations in academic research. Specifically, focusing on economics, this chapter aims to connect innovation and inequality by analyzing the recognition of women's ideas in the field. Bibliometric data from research in economics are used to investigate gender biases in citation patterns. Based on deep learning and machine learning techniques, one can (1) establish the similarities between papers (2) build a link between articles by identifying the papers citing, cited and that should be cited. This study finds that, on average, omitted papers are 20% more likely to be female-authored than male-authored. This omission bias is more prevalent when there are only males in the citing paper. Overall, to have the same level of citation as papers written by males, papers written by females need to be 20 percentiles upper in the distribution of the degree of innovativeness of the paper. Finally, the last chapter analyzes innovation from a more macroeconomic perspective, focusing on entrepreneurs. Indeed, entrepreneurs are at the core of economic development and innovation. However, entrepreneurship remains very risky. What are the opportunities for investment risk diversification for entrepreneurs? To answer this question, we investigate the role of financial integration. With a theoretical model featuring a continuous-time dimension with heterogeneous agents, we show that financial openness produces substantial welfare gains for entrepreneurs and therefore can help its agents to diversify the investment risk. Our results are also supported by empirical analysis.

Nous démontrons qu’il existe une récurrence dans la pensée de Keynes en matière de fluctuations, à savoir que l’investissement est le facteur majeur guidant les fluctuations économiques. La première partie explore les écrits datant d’avant 1925 environ, en analysant les thématiques et problèmes qui en émergent et qui anticipent ceux du Treatise on Money (1930). La seconde partie se focalise sur le Treatise à proprement parler, ainsi que la transition de cet ouvrage à la Théorie Générale de l’Emploi, de l’Intérêt et de la Monnaie (1936) suite à la crise économique du début des années 1930. La troisième et dernière partie aborde ainsi la réponse apportée par la Théorie Générale à ce problème, en démontrant que la théorie de l’investissement qui y est développée est au coeur de son analyse des fluctuations et cycles économiques. / The dissertation argues that there is a recurrence in Keynes’s thought as regards economic fluctuations: investment is considered as the primary factor driving these fluctuations. The first part explains how, in the author’s early writings, some topics and problems that would be discussed in the Treatise on Money (1930) would emerge out of an interest for monetary instability. The second part focuses on the Treatise as such, but also on the transition between this book and the General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936) following the economic crisis of the Great Depression. Finally the third part discusses the answer given by the General Theory to this problem, by showing that investment as understood and explained in this book is at the center of an analysis of economic fluctuations and business cycles.

This thesis examines the ways that fluctuations in voter expectations for the state of the economy affect party strategies, throughout 28 countries across the EU and OECD between 1995 and 2021. I thus make a theoretical contribution to the existing research by testing the theoretical models that claim that parties primarily respond to voter preferences and perceptions when conducting their policy strategies. Utilizing data from the Comparative Manifestos Project, the Eurobarometer, QOG and ParlGov, the study examines policy positions on economic issues, as presented in party manifestos ahead of elections. Using fixed-effects regressions with interaction variables, the effects of voter expectations on policy stances are examined, both in parliaments more generally as well as for each party family respectively. Specifically, Social-democratic, conservative, populist, Christian-democratic, and liberal parties are considered. Results show that when citizen expectations for the state of the economy worsen, parties show tendencies of shifting their policy stances to the left across the left-right scale. This is true across parliaments more generally, and results indicate that it may also be true when looking at each party family respectively. Most notably, results show that economic expectations impact the policy positions of parties even when controlling for the actual state of the economy, implying that parties are responsive to voter expectations independently of other macroeconomic considerations.