Electricity access is widely recognized as a driver of development. The Brazilian government has incorporated this principle into its national rural electrification program, Luz Para Todos (LPT – Light for all), which has already benefited more than 14 million people in the country since its inception in 2003. But a different electrification model is required if remote areas in the Amazon region are to fully benefit from the program. In general, LPT has been implemented through a grid-based technology. However, the program has been less successful in providing electricity access in the Amazon region. In this region, about 24% of the rural population has no access to electricity. Key challenges are related to the exhaustion of the grid-extension model in isolated areas.  Extending the grid in these areas is neither realistic because of the local topography and natural conditions, nor cost-effective because expensive investments would be required to benefit a small number of citizens with low income and consumption rates. This study suggests an adapted LPT model for delivering electricity access in isolated areas of the Amazon region. In particular, the study offers a policy maker perspective and details the specific needs of isolated communities. It was developed in the form of a case study and included a variety of data sources, gathering techniques and analysis approaches, including an extensive literature review, the collection of in-situ evidence through direct observations and semi- structured interviews. Conclusions draw attention to the need for more local and site-specific solutions. Three issues will be decisive in achieving universal, reliable and affordable access to electricity in the Amazon region. Firstly, harmonization with the regional context is essential as the Amazon is a vast and unique environment. Secondly, there is need for adapting the existing institutional structures to appreciate the conditions and specific needs of rural populations in the Amazon region. Thirdly, securing financial resource allocation and distribution will be decisive in a LPT model aimed at universal electrification in the Amazon. / <p>QC 20120531</p>

Electricity consumption in Guatemala has been steadily increasing during the recent years, challenging the generation sector to keep up with the pace of electricity demand in the long term. To tackle this problem, the government of Guatemala has delineated the Electricity Generation Expansion Plan for the period 2014-2028, proposing several hypothetical future scenarios of the energy mix for electricity production. The aim of this thesis is to evaluate how the fulfillment of this plan would influence energy security and sustainable development prospects in the country.  Following an assessment framework that allows a systematic evaluation of the system, indicators that reflect potential vulnerabilities and sustainability concerns are applied to the scenarios. The results show that energy security in the electricity sector could increase as a consequence of the capacity expansion and transformation of the energy mix to rely more on indigenous sources, taking into consideration scenarios with a more diversified portfolio that include the expansion of biomass and geothermal capacity to compensate for the vulnerability of hydroelectricity to weather events. The prospects for sustainable development in the country can be supported by the provision of secure electricity supply that takes into account efficiency and mitigation measures in the exploitation of natural resources, as well as social impact assessments to ensure that the plan will not affect the livelihood of vulnerable groups and has the possibility to contribute to increase equity in electricity access.

Universal access to electricity stands high on the global agenda and is regarded as essential for positive development in sectors such as health care, education, poverty reduction, food production and climate change. Decentralized, off-grid electrification is deemed an important complement to centralized grid extension. By utilizing a renewable energy source, solar technology for the generation of electricity, photovoltaics (PV) is being considered as a way forward to minimize the environmental problems related to energy use. This thesis aims to contribute to improving the technical and social feasibility of PV and PV-diesel hybrid micro-grids for the purpose of providing access to electricity to people in rural areas of countries with low level access to electricity. In line with these general aims, the focus has been to address three questions related to challenges in three phases of rural electrification. The work has a multi-disciplinary approach, addressing mainly technical and social aspects of long-term sustainability of micro-grids, in a local context, and the changes these are intended to generate. One specific micro-grid in Tanzania has been used as a major case study. The thesis is developed through three papers, all presenting methodologies or aspects for investigation in rural electrification projects and studies in general, and for PV-diesel hybrid micro-grids in particular. Paper I puts forward a methodology to facilitate non-social scientific researchers to take social aspects increasingly into consideration. Paper II is a guideline to support system users to increasingly apply an evaluation based system operation. Paper III specifically highlights the importance to consider blackouts when investigating how an existing off-grid PV-diesel hybrid system shall be utilized when a national grid becomes available.

Universal access to electricity stands high on the global agenda and is regarded as essential for positive development in sectors such as health care, education, poverty reduction, food production and climate change. Decentralized, off-grid electrification is deemed an important complement to centralized grid extension. By utilizing a renewable energy source, solar technology for the generation of electricity, photovoltaics (PV) is being considered as a way forward to minimize the environmental problems related to energy use. This thesis aims to contribute to improving the technical and social feasibility of PV and PV-diesel hybrid micro-grids for the purpose of providing access to electricity to people in rural areas of countries with low level access to electricity. In line with these general aims, the focus has been to address three questions related to challenges in three phases of rural electrification. The work has a multi-disciplinary approach, addressing mainly technical and social aspects of long-term sustainability of micro-grids, in a local context, and the changes these are intended to generate. One specific micro-grid in Tanzania has been used as a major case study. The thesis is developed through three papers, all presenting methodologies or aspects for investigation in rural electrification projects and studies in general, and for PV-diesel hybrid micro-grids in particular. Paper I puts forward a methodology to facilitate non-social scientific researchers to take social aspects increasingly into consideration. Paper II is a guideline to support system users to increasingly apply an evaluation based system operation. Paper III specifically highlights the importance to consider blackouts when investigating how an existing off-grid PV-diesel hybrid system shall be utilized when a national grid becomes available.

The East African Community (EAC) is an intergovernmental organisation comprised of six countries, five of which are classed as having a low development level and one of which is classed as medium. The region has low rates of human development and electrical connectivity but is committed to meeting the universal access and clean energy goals of Sustainable Development Goal 7. This thesis seeks to explore the renewable energy potential of the EAC at a regional level. There is little study of the energy situation of the EAC as a specific region, contrasting this work to the majority of similar analyses that focus on the national or sub-Saharan level. The potential for solar PV and wind power in the EAC was examined through an analysis of existing energy systems, a simplified multi-criteria analysis through geographical information systems, and a comparison with similar work by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). The region was shown to have a small but growing electricity sector and a primary energy system dominated by traditional biomass. The mapping analysis identified large areas across all studied countries as potentially suitable for on- or off-grid renewable energy. It also highlighted issues with the results of IRENA’s work in its current form. Solar PV and wind energy potential across the EAC is shown to be high, with a low carbon electricity sector consequently a possibility for the region in the future. / Den Östafrikanska Gemenskapen (EAC) är en mellanstatlig organisation av sex länder. Fem av de länderna har en låg utvecklingsnivå och en är klassificerad som medelnivå. Regionen har låg mänsklig utveckling och tillgång till elkraft men har bestämt att uppfylla globala målen 7: säkerställa tillgång till ekonomiskt överkomlig, tillförlitlig, hållbar och modern energi för alla. Denna uppsats utforskade potentialen för förnybar energi i den EAC på en regional nivå. Potentialen för solenergi och vindkraft i EAC undersöktes genom en analys av befintliga energisystem, en förenklad multikriterianalys genom geografiska informationssystem (GIS) och en jämförelse med liknande arbete från den International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). En liten men växande elsektor och ett primärt energisystem dominerat av traditionell biomassa identifierades i regionen. Kartläggningsanalysen identifierade stora områden i alla studerade länder som lämpliga för förnybar energi på, eller utanför, elnätet. Analysen fann också problem med resultaten från IRENAs arbete med Global Atlas of Renewable Energy projektet. Det finns god potential för sol- och vindkraft i EAC och möjligheten av ett lågkoldioxidenergisystem är diskuterade som en potential framtid för regionen.

Despite the vast solar potential in both Mali and Senegal, the electricity access in both countries remains one of the lowest in the world. The main problem is represented by the disparity between rural and urban settlements. In Senegal, the electricity access for rural areas was lower than 50%, while in Mali was around 35%. Although the grid represents and will still represent the main driver to ensure electricity access, solar off-grid technologies can help reach rural communities living far from the grid. This study used a GIS-based approach to study electricity models for Senegal and Mali. This has been done in order to integrate physical geographical constraints like GHI, slope and grid infrastructure, and socio-demographical constraints like population density, and distance of rural settlements from the grid. The modeling tool OnSSET together with the QGIS mapping tool is used in this thesis.To achieve future electricity targets, the modeling period of this study has been set to 2020-2030. Under this study for both countries, two scenarios have been analyzed. A sensitivity analysis will help to analyze the influence of the demand level and the grid’s generation price on the results of these scenarios. For Mali, an optimistic scenario considering a 100% electrification rate by 2030, with a reliable grid and a low grid electrification price is designed. A second scenario follows an opposite approach where only 70% will have access to electricity, mainly due to an inadequate grid state. For both scenarios, the results show that the population connected to the grid will be between 70% and 60%. The total investment needed to reach universal access in Mali is between $3.7 and $3.2 billion. The highest share of this investment will be dedicated to the implementation and maintenance of the grid, between $2 and $1.6 billion. Stand-Alone and mini-grid PV will contribute to bringing electricity to 10 to 20% of the population. For Senegal, an optimistic scenario considers a really good grid state and a 100% electrification rate. A second pessimistic scenario considers an inadequate state of the grid, with an electricity access level of 90%. The results show that the population connected to the grid will be between 80% and 70%. The investment required to reach universal access by 2030 will be between $2.3 and $1.9 billion. Most of this investment will be dedicated to the maintenance and implementation of the grid. For Senegal stand-alone, PV mini-grids and hydro-mini-grids will bring electricity to between 6 and 10% of the population. / Trots den enorma solpotential som finns i både Mali och Senegal är tillgången till elektricitet i de båda länderna fortfarande en av de lägsta i världen. Det största problemet representeras av skillnaden mellan landsbygd och tätort. I Senegal var eltillgången för landsbygdsområden lägre än 50%, medan den i Mali var omkring 35%. Även om elnätet representerar och fortsatt kommer att representera den främsta drivkraften för att säkerställa tillgång till elektricitet, kan solteknik utanför elnätet bidra till att nå landsbygdssamhällen som är belägna långt från elnätet. Denna studie använde en GIS-baserad metod för att studera elmodeller för Senegal och Mali. Detta har gjorts för att integrera fysiska geografiska begränsningar som GHI (global horisontal solstrålning), lutning och nätinfrastruktur, samt sociodemografiska begränsningar som befolkningstäthet och avståndet mellan bebyggelse på landsbygden från elnätet. Modelleringsverktyget OnSSET tillsammans med kartläggningsverktyget QGIS används i denna avhandling. För att nå framtida elmål har modellperioden för denna studie satts till år 2020-2030. Under denna studieperiod har två scenarier analyserats för båda länderna. En känslighetsanalys kommer att hjälpa till att analysera påverkan av efterfrågenivån och elnätets produktionspris på resultaten av dessa scenarier. För Mali är ett optimistiskt scenario designat, i betraktande av en 100% elektrifieringsgrad till år 2030, med ett tillförlitligt elnät och ett lågt nätelektrifieringspris. I ett andra scenario studeras ett motsatt tillvägagångssätt där endast 70% kommer att ha tillgång till el, främst på grund av ett otillräckligt nättillstånd. För de båda scenarierna visar resultaten att befolkningen som är ansluten till nätet kommer att vara mellan 60% och 70%. Den totala investeringen som krävs för att nå universell tillgång i Mali är mellan 3,2 och 3,7 miljarder dollar. Den största andelen av denna investering kommer att ägnas åt en implementering och ett underhåll av elnätet, vilket är mellan 1,6 och 2 miljarder USD. Fristående elsystem och PV-mininät kommer att bidra till att få el till 10-20% av befolkningen. För Senegal betraktas ett optimistiskt scenario med ett väldigt bra nättillstånd och en 100% elektrifieringsgrad. I ett andra, pessimistiskt scenario, betraktas ett otillräckligt tillstånd av elnätet, med en eltillgångsnivå på 90%. Resultaten visar att befolkningen som är ansluten till elnätet kommer att vara mellan 80% och 70%. Investeringen som krävs för att nå universell tillgång till år 2030 kommer att vara mellan 1,9 och 2,3 miljarder dollar. Det mesta av denna investering kommer att tillägna underhåll och implementering av elnätet. För Senegal kommer fristående elsystem, PV-mininät och hydro-mininät att ge el till mellan 6-10% av befolkningen.

This dissertation thesis touches on some important aspects of development, including financial development and improved access to reliable energy sources, regional integration and expanded opportunities for trade. This thesis was written to help guide policy reforms especially in developing countries to expand sources of growth and put countries on track to better meet their long-term development goals, including a better and more sustainable future for everyone. This dissertation consists of three papers. In the first paper I investigate the empirical evidence on the relationship between financial development and economic growth. In doing so, I assessed over 270 studies for their potential inclusion in a meta-analysis. From those studies that contained an empirical estimate of the finance growth relationship, I compiled 1,334 coefficients and coded study characteristics for each. Taking the reported estimates together, I find a positive link between financial development and economic growth, but with widely varying individual estimates. By applying a multi-variate meta-regression, I explain the variation in reported results, stemming not only from differences in research design (by authors addressing or ignoring potential endogeneity issues) but also from real drivers (different regional and time...

Access to electricity is a crucial component of achieving SDG 7, which aims to ensure clean energy for all. However, not all people in Botswana have access to electricity, and power generation is dominated by coal power. To address the electricity access issue, the Botswana government has implemented two programs: the Rural Electrification Programand the National Electricity Standard Connection Cost Program. This study focuses on investigating the effectiveness of these government programs, as well as the drivers of and barriers to residential rooftop solar PV. The primary aim of the study is to provide recommendations for policy makers, while also contributing to enhanced knowledge among solar PV distributors and academia. To achieve the research objectives, a field trip to Botswana was conducted to interview various stakeholders. Additionally, a literature review and ananalysis of policy documents were executed. The study’s results reveal a difference in the success of the two government programs, leading to a gap between the share of grid-connected villages and the share of people with access to electricity. Interms of residential rooftop solar PV, the study identifies numerous drivers, such as increased reliability and reduced power bills. However, there are also several barriers to residential rooftop solar PV, including a conservative mindset among decision-makers that favors coal power, lack of incentives, low affordability, social acceptance risks, lacking maintenance, and insufficient knowledge among both inhabitants and policymakers. Based on the results, the study provides recommendations for policymakers to ensure full electricity access and accelerated residential rooftop solar PV implementations. / Tillgång till el är avgörande för att uppnå SDG 7 som syftar till att säkerställa hållbar energi för alla. Samtidigt har samtliga invånare i Botswana inte tillgång till electricitet och dessutom domineras elproduktionen av kolkraft. För att överkomma problemet med tillgång till electricitet har Botswanas regering implementerat programmen Rural Elecrtification Program och National Electricity Standard Connection Cost Program.  Den här studien fokuserar på att utvärdera dessa statliga program samt på att identifiera drivkrafterna och hindren för solkraft för hushåll. Det primära syftet med studien är att ge rekommendationer till beslutsfattare. Studien ämnar även bidra till ökad kunskap bland solcellsdistributörer och den akademiska världen. För att åstadkomma detta genomfördes en studieresa till Botswana under vilken intervjuer med olika intressenter hölls. Dessutom genomfördes en litteraturstudie och en analys av policydokument.  Studiens resultat påvisar en skillnad i framgång hos de statliga programmen och att det leder till att andelen nätanslutna byar är högre än andelen invånare med tillgång till el. När det gäller solkraft för hushåll har flertalet  drivkrafter för dess implementering identifieras. Till dessa hör ökad försörjningstrygghet och minskade elräkningar. Det finns dock även många hinder för ökad implementering av solkraft för hushåll. Några av dessa är ett konservativt tankesätt bland beslutsfattare som gynnar kolkraft, brist på incitament, låg betalningsförmåga, låg grad av social acceptans, bristande underhåll samt otillräcklig kunskap bland både invånare och beslutsfattande. Baserat på resultaten presenteras rekommendationer riktade till beslutsfattare för att säkerställa att alla i Botswana har tillgång till elektricitet samt för att öka implementeringen av solkraft för hushåll i Botswana.