[pt] A redução das perdas não técnicas de energia elétrica (PNT) constitui atualmente um dos principais desafios enfrentados pelas concessionárias de distribuição de eletricidade nos países em desenvolvimento. Por depender em parte de fatores não gerenciáveis pelas distribuidoras, as PNT no Brasil são repassadas aos consumidores através de tarifas de eletricidade, seguindo os limites definidos pela Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica (ANEEL). Apesar do notável progresso realizado pela ANEEL, à metodologia atualmente empregada pela Agência para definição desses limites apresenta uma série de limitações o que impõem ao regulador a adoção de medidas ad hoc que acaba resultando em metas de perdas pouco condizentes com a realidade das distribuidoras. Nas últimas três décadas diversos modelos matemáticos de Análise de Eficiência vêm sendo desenvolvidos com intuito de mensurar a eficiência relativa de grupos de agente. A adoção desses modelos, no entanto, tem se limitado a temas relacionados a custos operacionais e investimento. Essa dissertação tem por objetivo cobrir essa lacuna, propondo um modelo alternativo para a definição das metas regulatórias de PNT a partir de uma família particular de modelos de Análise de Eficiência – os modelos de Análise de Fronteira Estocástica (SFA). O modelo proposto foi aplicado a um painel de dados contendo observações anuais de 62 concessionárias de distribuição de energia elétrica brasileira no período de 2007 a 2017, resultando em um conjunto de metas de PNT mais aderentes às PNT reais das distribuidoras brasileiras. / [en] The reduction of non-technical losses of electrical power (NTL) are currently one of the main challenges faced by electricity utility companies in developing countries. Because it depends in part on factors not manageable by the utilities, in Brazil is passed on to consumers through electricity tariffs, following the limits defined by the National Electric Energy Agency (ANEEL). Despite the notable progress made by ANEEL, the currently used methodology by this Agency to define these limits has a number of limitations, which have impose the adoption of ad hoc measures that end up resulting in loss targets that are inconsistent with the reality of the utilities. In the last three decades, a several mathematical models of Efficiency Analysis have been developing in order to measure the relative efficiency of groups of agents. However, the adoption of these models by Regulator Bodies around the world has been limited to subjects related to operating costs and investment. This dissertation aims to fulfill this gap, proposing an alternative model for the definition of NTL regulatory targets from a particular family of Efficiency Analysis models - the Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) models. The proposed model has been applied to a data panel containing annual observations of 62 distribution concessionaires in the Brazilian electrical system from 2007 to 2017, resulting in a set of NTL targets more adherent to the real PNT of Brazilian electricity utility distributors.

[pt] A perdas não técnicas de energia elétrica (PNT) constituem, atualmente, um dos principais problemas enfrentados pelas concessionárias de distribuição de eletricidade no Brasil. Entende-se que parte desses fatores não são gerenciáveis pelas distribuidoras, e assim, são repassadas aos consumidores através de tarifas de eletricidade, seguindo os limites definidos pela Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica (ANEEL). Apesar do progresso realizado pela ANEEL, a metodologia atualmente empregada pela Agência utiliza-se de dados em painel para formulações desses limites, no entanto, define-se algumas medidas ad-hoc que acabam resultando em metas de perdas pouco condizentes com a realidade das distribuidoras brasileiras. Essa dissertação tem por objetivo selecionar modelos de forma automática para dados em painel, avaliando sua aplicabilidade na definição das metas de perdas não técnicas. Os modelos propostos foram empregados a um painel de dados contendo observações anuais de 62 concessionárias de distribuição de energia elétrica brasileira no período de 2007 a 2017, gerando, assim, 1.097.789 modelos com respeitando os tipos de regressões em dados em painel, resultando em 3 modelos potenciais com metas de PNT mais aderentes às PNT reais das distribuidoras brasileiras. / [en] Non-technical electricity losses (NTL) are currently one of the main problems faced by electricity distribution utilities in Brazil. It is understood that part of these factors is not manageable by the utilities, and thus, they are passed on to consumers through electricity tariffs, following the limits defined by the Brazilian Electric Energy Agency (ANEEL). Despite the progress made by ANEEL, the methodology currently used by the Agency uses panel data to formulate these limits, however, some ad hoc measures are defined which end up resulting in loss targets that are not consistent with the reality of Brazilian distribution utilities. This dissertation aims to select models automatically for panel data, evaluating their applicability in setting non-technical loss targets. The proposed models were used in a panel data containing annual observations from 62 Brazilian electricity distribution utilities in the period from 2007 to 2017, thus generating 1,097,789 models with respect to the types of regressions in panel data, resulting in 3 potential models with NTL targets more adherent to the real possibilities of the Brazilian distribution utilities.

Text in English, with English, Afrikaans and Zulu summaries / This study was conducted owing to the protracted problem and challenges that unauthorised electrical connections pose to electricity utilities. This study sought to contribute to the combating of unauthorised electrical connections in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, which has never before been studied in this manner. Considerable revenue is stolen from utilities because of unauthorised electrical connections, by-passing of electrical meters and tampering with electricity networks. This contributes to public safety risks, fatalities, property damage and overloading of electrical networks. This in turn causes transformer and electricity network overload and power supply failure, prolonged unplanned power cuts, loss of jobs, food security risk, serious poor economic development, damaged electrical infrastructure, loss of revenue, electricity disruptions, electric shock, and the burning of dwellings. This leads to the interruption of supply to legal and compliant customers, all with disastrous effects. It is therefore difficult to manage the supply and demand of electricity under these circumstances, more especially in this period when South Africa faces a tight electricity supply. In this dissertation, the international and national perspectives reveal the nature and extent of unauthorised electrical connections. It was explored how unauthorised electrical connections are presently being combated and what specific security measures may be implemented to enhance the combating of unauthorised electrical connections. A case study design was used to investigate in greater detail the opinions, views, perceptions and experiences of the targeted interviewees using interviewing, site observation and case docket analysis. This design guided the use of specific sample groups, procedures and techniques used for data collection and analysis. The design and development of the different data collection instruments and the piloting of the instruments were implemented to ensure validity, reliability, accuracy and trustworthiness of the collected information. The study produced findings to assist electricity utilities to better manage this phenomenon. Recommendations were formulated to assist stakeholders to improve their roles in the combating of unauthorised electrical connections. / Hierdie studie is uitgevoer na aanleiding van die uitgerekte probleem en uitdagings van onwettige elektrisiteitsverbindings vir elektrisiteitsvoorsieners. Hierdie studie poog om by te dra om onwettige elektrisiteitsverbindings in KwaZulu-Natal, Suid-Afrika te beveg; dit is nog nooit tevore op hierdie wyse ondersoek nie. Beduidende inkomste word van diensmaatskappye gesteel as gevolg van onwettige elektrisiteitsverbindings, die wat elektriese meters omseil en met elektrisiteitsnetwerke peuter. Dit dra tot openbare veiligheidsrisiko's, fataliteite, skade aan eiendom, en oorlading van elektrisiteitsnetwerke by. Dit lei weer tot oorlading van transformators en elektrisiteitsnetwerke, gebrek aan kragvoorsiening, verlengde onbeplande kragonderbrekings, werksverlies, voedselsekuriteitrisiko, ernstige swak ekonomiese ontwikkeling, skade aan elektrisiteitinfrastruktuur, verlies aan inkomste, elektriese skok, en huise wat afbrand. Dit lei tot die onderbreking van voorsiening aan wetlike en inskiklike klante met rampspoedige gevolge. Dit is dus moeilik om voorsiening en vraag na elektrisiteit in hierdie omstandighede te bestuur, veral in hierdie tyd wat Suid-Afrika drukkende elektrisiteitvoorsiening beleef. In hierdie verhandeling onthul die internasionale en nasionale perspektiewe die aard en mate van onwettige elektrisiteitsverbindings. Dit was ondersoek hoe onwettige elektrisiteitsverbindings tans beveg word en watter spesifieke veiligheidsmaatreëls geïmplementeer kan word om die bevegting van onwettige elektrisiteitsverbindings te bevorder. Die gevallestudie-ontwerp is gebruik om die onderhoudgewers se menings, sienings, perspektiewe en ervarings in meer besonderhede te ondersoek deur onderhoude, waarnemings en saakdossierontledings te gebruik. Die ontwerp het die gebruik van spesifieke steekproefgroepe, prosedures en tegnieke wat vir dataversamelings en -ontleding gebruik is, gerig Die ontwerp en ontwikkeling van die verskillende dataversamelinginstrumente en die bestuur van die instrumente is geïmplementeer om geldigheid, betroubaarheid, akkuraatheid en geloofwaardigheid van die versamelde inligting te verseker. Die studie se bevindings help elektrisiteitsdienste om hierdie verskynsel beter te bestuur. Aanbevelings is geformuleer om belanghebbers te help om hul rolle te bevorder in die stryd om onwettige elektrisiteitsverbindings te beveg. / Ucwaningo lwenziwa ngenxa yokubona inkinga egxilile neqhubekela phambili kanye nezinselele ezibangelwa ukuzixhumela ama-connection kagesi (i-elektrisithi) maqondana nezinkampani zikagesi. Ucwaningo belufuna ukufaka esivivaneni kudaba lokuvimbela ukuzixhumela kogesi ngendlela engekho emthethweni eKwaZulu-Natali, eNingizimu Afrika, yona okungakaze kwenziwe ucwaningo ngayo ngale ndlela. Kunengeniso eliningi lemali entshontshwa ngale ndlela kwizinkampani noma izinhlangano zikagesi ngoba kunokuzixhomela ugesi okungekho emthethweni, ukungasetshenziswa kwamamitha ogesi, kanye nokuphazamisa ama-network kagesi. Lokhu kubangela izingozi nokungavikeleki kubantu bonke, ukulimala, ukulinyazwa nokonakala kwempahla noma iprophathi kanye nokuthi ama-network kagesi agxisheleke nokucindezeleka ngokweqile. Kanti futhi lokhu kubanga ukuthi ama-transformer kanye nama-network kagesi acindezeleke ngokweqile nokwenza ukuthi isaplayi kagesi ihluleke nokufeyila, lokhu okubangela ukuthi kube nama-power cuts noma ukucishwa kukagesi okungahleliwe, ukulahleka kwemisebenzi, ingozi yokuphazamiseka kokuvikeleka kokudla, ukuthi ukuthuthuka komnotho kuphazamiseke kakhulu, ukulahleka kwengeniso lemali, ukuphazamiseka kokuphakelwa kukagesi, ukulinyazwa kwabantu ngokubanjwa ugesi, kanye nokusha kwemizi eshiswa ugesi. Lokhu kuholela ekutheni kuphazamiseke isaplayi kagesi kumakhastama akhokha kahle nenza izinto ngokulandela umthetho, lokhu okubanga imiphumela yezinhlekelele ezimbi. Ngakho-ke kuba nzima ukubhekana kanye nezinto zesaplayi kanye nokudingeka kukagesi ngaphansi kwalezi simo, ikakhulukazi lapho iNingizimu Afrika ibhekene nokuncipha noma izinga eliphansi lesaplayi kagesi. Kule dissertation isimo sikazwelonke kanye nesamazwe omhlaba, siveze inhlobo kanye nezinga lokuxhunyelwa kukagesi okungekho emthethweni. Kubuye kwabheka nokuthi ukuxhunyelwa kukagesi okungekho emthethweni kubhekwana kanye nokuvinjelwa kanjani, nokuthi yiziphi izindlela eziqondene ezisetshenziswayo zokuvikeleka ezingasetshenziswa ukuthuthukisa izinqubo zokuvimbela ukuxhunyelwa kukagesi nama-connection angekho emthethweni angavinjelwa kanjani . Kusetshenziswe idizayini ye-case study ukuphenyisisa ngokujulile imininingwane, imibono, izinqubo zokubheka isimo kanye nezipiliyoni zalabo obekuqondiswe kubo ama-interview ngesikhathi kwenziwa ama-interview, ukuyobheka ngamehlo esimo ezindaweni, kanye nokuhlaziya amadokhethi amacala ngokwenzekayo. Le dizayini yiyona eholele ekusetshenzisweni kwamasampuli amaqembu athize, izinqubo noma amaprosija athize kanye namathekniki athize asetshenzisiwe ekuqoqeni kwe-data kanye nohlaziyo lwayo. Idizayini nokwenziwa kwama-instrumenti okuqoqwa kwe-data ehlukene, kanye nokwenza ama-instrumenti okulinga noma e-piloting, kusetshenzisiwe ukuqinisekisa i-validity, ukuthembeka (reliability), ukuqondana ncamashi kwama-instrumenti (accuracy) kanye nokuqiniseka okubizwa ngokuthi yi-trustworthiness yolwazi noma i-infomeshini eqoqiwe. Ucwaningo, lukhiphe imiphumela yokusiza izinkampani noma izinhlangano zikagesi ekuphatheni kangcono le nkinga noma ifenominoni (phenomenon) yenkinga. Kwenziwe izincomo zokusiza ababambe iqhaza (stakeholders) ukuthuthukisa indima yabo ekulwiseni ukuxhunyelwa kanye nama-connection kagesi angekho emthethweni. / Criminology and Security Science / M. Tech. (Security Management)