The task of this paper is to employ the global asset pricing theory suggested by Ferson and Harvey (1995) to study the stock markets in the devoloping countries. Ferson and Harvey (1998) clarified the relationship in the developed countries under the global asset pricing model between mispricing and risks to cross-sectional explanatory power of conditional beta constructed by predetermined lagged variable such as book-to-market-value, cash-flow, P/E ratios and other determinants. There is also significant evidence of conditional betas in the three-factor model by Fama and French (1993), and the four-factor model by Elton, Gruber, and Blake (1995), and in the following research by Ferson and Harvey (1999). This paper focuses on the recently fast growing emerging markets to provide analysis of the debate on explanatory power coming from risk exposure or mispricing, and also tries to provide evidence for the global conditional asset pricing model, identifying other patterns of conditional asset pricing model for emerging markets.

Background: More foreign companies expand into emerging markets and such markets differ from developed ones. Emerging markets present opportunities and challenges for foreign companies. Challenges include many environmental factors, cultural differences, economic uncertainties and weak institutions. Emerging markets are often characterized by underdeveloped formal institutions which result in the so called institutional voids. Informal institutions act as formal institutions and fill in these institutional voids. Foreign companies need to pay much attention to emerging economies institutions when selecting entry mode since the institutions affect their strategy and profitability. Aim: The purpose of my thesis is to investigate and analyze how aforeign company is affected by a host country’s institutional context when entering an emerging market. The thesis focuses on the emerging market of Russia and a case company. Conclusions: Institutions affect the steps taken in accordance with the Uppsalamodel. It is important to learn more about the institutions of a host country in choosing an entry mode. The weakness in property rights, risk of corruption, political and economic factors combined with networking were the dominant factors in choosing an entrymode. Väderstad suffers from institutional shocks in the Russian market and they affect the willingness to invest further. / Bakgrund: Mer företag expanderar till tillväxtmarknader och sådana marknader är annorlunda än utvecklade marknader. Tillväxtmarknader presenterar både möjligheter och utmaningar för företagen. Utmaningarna inkluderar omgivningsfaktorer, kulturella skillnader, ekonomisk osäkerhet och svaga institutioner. Tillväxtmarknader karakteriseras ofta av underutvecklade formella institutioner som kan resultera i institutionella tomrum. Informella institutioner verkar som formella för att fylla tomrummet. Utländska företag måste ge uppmärksamhet till institutionerna i tillväxtmarknader när de väljer etableringsform eftersom institutionerna påverkar både strategi och lönsamhet. Syfte: Syftet med uppsatsen är att undersöka och analysera hur ett utländskt företag påverkas av ett värdlands institutionella sammanhang när det etablerar sig på en tillväxtmarknad. Uppsatsen fokuserar på tillväxtmarknaden Ryssland och ett fallföretag. Slutsats: Institutioner påverkade stegen i enlighet med Uppsalamodellen. Det är viktigt att lära sig mer om institutionerna för värdlandet när företaget väljer etableringsstrategi. Svag äganderätt, risk för korruption, politiska och ekonomiska faktorer kombinerat med närverksbyggande var dominanta faktorer i valet av etableringsform. Väderstad påverkas av institutionella chocker i Ryssland och det påverkar viljan att investera mer

The purpose of this thesis is to gain a deeper insight of in which ways Swedish SMEs are dependent on their network when entering into Vietnam. In the introductory chapter there is a description of why it is interesting with the phenomenon globalization and of why Vietnam is an interesting market. This is followed by a discussion of the importance of network. The research question that evolved from this is: In what ways are Swedish SMEs dependent on their business network relationships when entering Vietnam? In the literature review the revised Uppsala model helps to gain a great knowledge of the importance of network when internationalizing. Furthermore, the core concept network is discussed from different angles. From this discussion we identified the following core concepts: embeddedness, complexity of relationships, network position, structure and bonds and trust and commitment, which the conceptual framework is based on. In the methodology chapter the approach, method and design that are used in this thesis are explained, together with the operationalization and an introduction of the respondents and the companies that they represent. In the empirical findings, the information gathered from different interviews is presented. The chapter about the empirical findings is structured based on the concept from the literature review, but also from the respondents, in order for the reader to easy be able to follow. This is followed by the analysis in which the respondents’ answers are compared to each other and then towards the conceptual framework. Lastly, the conclusion with the answer of the research question, implications and recommendations and suggestions for future research is stated. The main conclusions from this study are: • Swedish SMEs are dependent on their network when entering Vietnam. • Swedish SMEs are dependent on being locally anchored since it facilitates the interaction with the market. • Swedish SMEs are dependent on their network concerning travelling, communicating and interacting. • Swedish SMEs are dependent on their local personnel when conducting business in Vietnam. • Swedish SMEs are not dependent concerning obtaining institutional and political relationships when entering Vietnam.

No description available.

Over the last decade, researchers have attempted to show how efficient the markets are by using Fama’s Efficiency Market Hypothesis (EMH). The theory states that an investor cannot increase his returns without taking additional risk. The markets can be efficient in different forms depending on the information included in the traded asset. It is quoted that: "There ain't no such thing as a free lunch". However, the topic still remains disputable since researchers have introduced controversial findings after investigating different markets. Overall, emerging markets have been characterized with higher volatility which consequently declares for market imperfections. Commonly, these market inefficiencies are quickly captured by the eye of the investors who are lurking for potential benefits through exploiting them. These are the so called arbitrage opportunities which exist on different level of impact, depending on the attitude of the market. The existence of arbitrage is clear evidence against Fama’s theory and it has been documented in numerous studies. Unfortunately those events occur rarely and disappear in a matter of seconds, thus; is highly competitive to capitalize. Over the last decade high frequency trading (HFT) became popular on different markets and it allowed traders to make decisions and execute transactions in a matter of milliseconds using algorithms. The market we are interested in is the Forex market which is a decentralized market where currencies from all over the world are traded. Main participants include multinational banks which rely heavily on HFT. The method used to benefit from inefficiency is called triangular arbitrage and it involves selling and buying 3 sets of currency pairs in times when a parity is violated. The goal of this study is to answer the following research question, “Is there a difference in triangular arbitrage opportunities between emerging markets and developed ones?” The main objective of this research is to examine how the number of arbitrage occurrences varies considering different market characteristics. Furthermore, the originality of the research stems from the comparison between strategies using currencies from developed economies and emerging ones. Moreover, the additional academic value comes from the analysis of a new dataset that has not yet been examined. Lastly, our results make an empirical contribution into a country’s economy by reducing market inefficiencies and increasing economic stability. Our sample consists of quantitative data totaling to 2.4 million observations per quotation taken from 2011 and 2013 for currencies picked using a non-probability convenience method based on their property to be converted to EUR and USD currency and availability of information. The research revealed that differences between the two types of market exist, and indicates that the “early” markets possess higher arbitrage activity in contrast to the mature economies. These results should boost the potential for a better trading management and upgrade the profit growth.

Studies of the relationship between market values and accounting numbers have long been a part of an established theme in capital markets research (CMR). These studies have taken various forms, most being conducted on a cross sectional basis, tied closely with the assumptions of equilibrium behaviour and efficient markets. Explanatory variables for market value have been dominated by firm-specific variables without incorporating macroeconomic variables. Recently, however, some studies have employed macroeconomic variables and dynamic specification in assessing the relationship between market values and accounting numbers (e.g. Bilson et al. 2001, Nissim and Penman, 2003, and Willett, 2003). The objective of this thesis is to investigate the nature of the relationship between share prices and accounting numbers on the Jakarta Stock Exchange for the period 1992-2002, using dynamic modelling principles in addition to the more usual cross sectional analysis. The approach to regression modelling (general-to-specific strategy)incorporated in this thesis relies less heavily than most CMR on prior economic theories of equilibrium behaviour. Apart from these novel aspects of approach and method, the study also provides valuable information about the emerging financial markets of Indonesia. The results of this thesis show that cointegration and the accompanying equilibrium correction relationship between market and book values for firms listed on the Jakarta Stock Exchange (JSX) can often be identified using accounting and macroeconomic regressors. The models are typically more informative, plausible and consistent than cross sectional models and are useful in interpreting the context in which the market to book relationship exists in Indonesia. A possibly surprising result is that in Indonesia, compared to similar models estimated using US data, the book value of net assets seems to have a stronger relationship with market value. This may be a function of the relative importance of financial statements as a source of information on the JSX.

Submitted by Beatriz Sousa Rocha (sousarocha.beatriz@gmail.com) on 2015-03-10T15:30:30Z No. of bitstreams: 1 BeatrizRocha_The influence of the global crisis on the slowdown of the EM.pdf: 1365314 bytes, checksum: 82f9b310310d1e4103974d5d4aceeb3c (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Luana Rodrigues (luana.rodrigues@fgv.br) on 2015-03-10T18:01:24Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 BeatrizRocha_The influence of the global crisis on the slowdown of the EM.pdf: 1365314 bytes, checksum: 82f9b310310d1e4103974d5d4aceeb3c (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-11T12:48:22Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 BeatrizRocha_The influence of the global crisis on the slowdown of the EM.pdf: 1365314 bytes, checksum: 82f9b310310d1e4103974d5d4aceeb3c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-11-14 / This paper investigates the empirical relationship between the 2007-2009 financial crisis, the 2010-2012 sovereign debt crisis and the recent emerging equity markets slowdown. The exposure of the emerging markets to the crisis of the developed markets is quantified using an interdependence factor model. The results show that emerging markets did suffer a shock from both crisis, yet they recovered while the developed markets were still struggling. After the sovereign debt crisis emerging markets slowed down synchronized with the developed market’s recovery. The paper further analyses whether capital flows explain the connection between these two events, finding this relationship exists. / A presente dissertação investiga a relação empírica entre a crise financeira de 2007-2009, a crise da dívida soberana de 2010-2012 e a recente desaceleração dos mercados de capitais nos mercados emergentes. A exposição dos mercados emergentes à crise nos desenvolvidos é quantificada através de um modelo de interdependência de factores. Os resultados mostram que estes sofreram, de facto, um choque provocado por ambas as crises. No entanto, este foi um choque de curta duração enquanto os mercados desenvolvidos ainda lutavam com as consequências resultantes das sucessivas crises financeiras. A análise do modelo mostra ainda que após a crise da divida soberana, enquanto os mercados desenvolvidos iniciam a sua recuperação, os emergentes desaceleram o seu crescimento. De forma a completar a análise do modelo foi efectuado um estudo sobre a influência dos fluxos de capitais entre os mercados emergentes e desenvolvidos na direcção do seu crescimento, revelando que existe uma relação entre estes dois eventos.

Submitted by Stefano Toto (stefanototo92@gmail.com) on 2015-03-24T18:06:58Z No. of bitstreams: 1 FInal version Stefano Toto .pdf: 2666174 bytes, checksum: a92ae5ee1fd88876c05d33145bf36d74 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Luana Rodrigues (luana.rodrigues@fgv.br) on 2015-03-30T13:27:41Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 FInal version Stefano Toto .pdf: 2666174 bytes, checksum: a92ae5ee1fd88876c05d33145bf36d74 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-30T13:36:05Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 FInal version Stefano Toto .pdf: 2666174 bytes, checksum: a92ae5ee1fd88876c05d33145bf36d74 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-02-27 / This research is to be considered as an implementation of Goetzmann and Jorion (1999). In order to provide a more realistic scenario, we have implemented a Garch (1,1) approach for the residuals of returns and a multifactor model thus to better replicate the systematic risk of a market. The new simulations reveal some new aspects of emerging markets’ expected returns: the unpredictability of the emerging markets’ returns with the global factor does not depend on the year of emergence and that the unsystematic risk explains the returns of emerging markets for a much larger period of time. The results also reveal the high impact of Exchange rate, Commodities index and of the Global factor in emerging markets’ expected return.

Submitted by Laura Nelson (nelson.lkn@gmail.com) on 2015-04-13T21:22:34Z No. of bitstreams: 1 L Nelson - MPGI Thesis 2015.pdf: 3337611 bytes, checksum: 0d2c94b96220464f0b91982c3a7f727d (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Luana Rodrigues (luana.rodrigues@fgv.br) on 2015-04-14T12:04:24Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 L Nelson - MPGI Thesis 2015.pdf: 3337611 bytes, checksum: 0d2c94b96220464f0b91982c3a7f727d (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-04-14T12:19:03Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 L Nelson - MPGI Thesis 2015.pdf: 3337611 bytes, checksum: 0d2c94b96220464f0b91982c3a7f727d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015 / Quantifying country risk – and in particular, political risk – poses great difficulties for business, institutions, and investors alike. As economic indicators are updated far less frequently than Facebook feeds, it can be challenging for political risk analysts to understand, and more importantly measure, what is taking place in real time on the ground. However, with the growing availability of big data from social media platforms such as Twitter, now is an opportune moment to examine the types of social media metrics that are available and the limitations to applying them to country risk analysis, particularly during episodes of political upheaval. This study, using the qualitative method of bibliographical research, identifies the current landscape of data available from Twitter, analyzes the current and potential methods of analysis, and discusses their possible application to the field of political risk analysis. After a thorough review of the field to date, and given the expected near- to medium-term technological advancements, this study concludes that despite obstacles like the cost of data storage, limitations of real-time analysis, and the potential for data manipulation, the potential benefits of the application of social media metrics to the field of political risk analysis, particularly for structured-qualitative and quantitative models, outweigh the challenges. / A quantificação do risco país – e do risco político em particular – levanta várias dificuldades às empresas, instituições, e investidores. Como os indicadores econômicos são atualizados com muito menos freqüência do que o Facebook, compreender, e mais precisamente, medir – o que está ocorrendo no terreno em tempo real pode constituir um desafio para os analistas de risco político. No entanto, com a crescente disponibilidade de 'big data' de ferramentas sociais como o Twitter, agora é o momento oportuno para examinar os tipos de métricas das ferramentas sociais que estão disponíveis e as limitações da sua aplicação para a análise de risco país, especialmente durante episódios de violência política. Utilizando o método qualitativo de pesquisa bibliográfica, este estudo identifica a paisagem atual de dados disponíveis a partir do Twitter, analisa os métodos atuais e potenciais de análise, e discute a sua possível aplicação no campo da análise de risco político. Depois de uma revisão completa do campo até hoje, e tendo em conta os avanços tecnológicos esperados a curto e médio prazo, este estudo conclui que, apesar de obstáculos como o custo de armazenamento de informação, as limitações da análise em tempo real, e o potencial para a manipulação de dados, os benefícios potenciais da aplicação de métricas de ferramentas sociais para o campo da análise de risco político, particularmente para os modelos qualitativos-estruturados e quantitativos, claramente superam os desafios.

Submitted by Juan Sanchez (juan_msanchez@msn.com) on 2016-06-06T13:44:26Z No. of bitstreams: 1 marketing-sanchez-projeto VF 6.pdf: 1259869 bytes, checksum: e6fdb1cce68a5d409ee6ccd47f4f1771 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Ana Luiza Holme (ana.holme@fgv.br) on 2016-06-06T13:46:44Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 marketing-sanchez-projeto VF 6.pdf: 1259869 bytes, checksum: e6fdb1cce68a5d409ee6ccd47f4f1771 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-06T15:11:27Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 marketing-sanchez-projeto VF 6.pdf: 1259869 bytes, checksum: e6fdb1cce68a5d409ee6ccd47f4f1771 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-05-11 / Increasing competition caused by globalization, high growth of some emerging markets and stagnation of developed economies motivate Consumer Packaged Goods (CPGs) manufacturers to drive their attention to emerging markets. These companies are expected to adapt their marketing activities to the particularities of these markets in order to succeed. In a country classified as emerging market, regions are not alike and some contrasts can be identified. In addition, divergences of marketing variables effect can also be observed in the different retail formats. The retail formats in emerging markets can be segregated in chain self-service and traditional full-service. Thus, understanding the effectiveness of marketing mix not only in country aggregated level data can be an important contribution. Inasmuch as companies aim to generate profits from emerging markets, price is an important marketing variable in the process of creating competitive advantage. Along with price, promotional variables such as in-store displays and price cut are often viewed as temporary incentives to increase short-term sales. Managers defend the usage of promotions as being the most reliable and fastest manner to increase sales and then short-term profits. However, some authors alert about sales promotions disadvantages; mainly in the long-term. This study investigates the effect of price and in-store promotions on sales volume in different regions within an emerging market. The database used is at SKU level for juice, being segregated in the Brazilian northeast and southeast regions and corresponding to the period from January 2011 to January 2013. The methodological approach is descriptive quantitative involving validation tests, application of multivariate and temporal series analysis method. The Vector-Autoregressive (VAR) model was used to perform the analysis. Results suggest similar price sensitivity in the northeast and southeast region and greater in-store promotion sensitivity in the northeast. Price reductions show negative results in the long-term (persistent sales in six months) and in-store promotion, positive results. In-store promotion shows no significant influence on sales in chain self-service stores while price demonstrates no relevant impact on sales in traditional full-service stores. Hence, this study contributes to the business environment for companies wishing to manage price and sales promotions for consumer brands in regions with different features within an emerging market. As a theoretical contribution, this study fills an academic gap providing a dedicated price and sales promotion study to contrast regions in an emerging market. / O aumento da competição causada pela globalização, alto crescimento dos mercados emergentes e a estagnação dos mercados em países desenvolvidos levaram empresas de Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) a direcionar sua atenção aos mercados emergentes. Estas empresas devem adaptar suas atividades de marketing as particularidades destes mercados para obter sucesso. Em um país classificado como emergente, diferentes regiões possuem distintas características. Adicionalmente, divergências no efeito das variáveis de marketing também podem ser observadas nos diferentes formatos de varejo. Os formatos de varejo em um mercado emergente podem ser classificados em autosserviço (chain self-service) e tradicional de serviço (traditional full-service). Desta forma, entender a eficácia do marketing mix não apenas no nível agregado de país pode ser uma contribuição importante. Na medida em que as empresas visam gerar lucros em mercados emergentes, o preço é uma importante variável de marketing no processo de criação de uma vantagem competitiva. Junto com o preço, variáveis de promoção como displays nas lojas e redução de preços são muitas vezes vistos como incentivos temporários para aumentar as vendas no curto prazo. Executivos defendem o uso de promoções como sendo a maneira mais confiável e mais rápida de aumentar vendas e o lucro no curto prazo. No entanto, alguns autores alertam sobre as desvantagens de promoção de vendas; principalmente, no longo prazo. Este estudo investiga o efeito de preço e promoção em lojas no volume de vendas em diferentes regiões dentro de um mercado emergente. A base de dados utilizada esta no nível SKU para o suco, sendo segregada nas regiões do sudeste e nordeste brasileiro, correspondendo ao período entre janeiro de 2011 a janeiro de 2013. A abordagem metodológica de validação é quantitativa descritiva, sendo aplicado um método de análise de séries multivariadas e temporais. O modelo de vetor autorregressivo (VAR) foi utilizado para realizar a análise. Os resultados sugerem uma sensibilidade de preço semelhante na região do nordeste e do sudeste e maior sensibilidade de promoção em lojas no nordeste. Reduções de preço mostram resultados negativos no longo prazo (persistência do volume de vendas em seis meses) enquanto promoção em lojas teve resultados positivos. Promoção em lojas não mostra influência significativa sobre as vendas em lojas de autosserviço, por outro lado, preço demonstra não ter impacto relevante sobre as vendas em lojas tradicionais de serviço. Assim, este estudo contribui ao cenário executivo para empresas que almejam aperfeiçoar a promoções de vendas e precificação de suas marcas em regiões com diferentes características dentro de um mercado emergente. Como contribuição teórica, este estudo preenche uma lacuna acadêmica fornecendo um estudo de preço e promoção de vendas dedicado ao contraste de regiões em um mercado emergente.